Brainstorming a Robert's Rebellion Timeline

[Frey family reunion]

38 minutes ago, Mister Smikes said:

Fair enough.  All I'm saying is that the failure to specifically mention Elia does not imply the inhuman scenario you are envisioning.

This is me giving a big shrug.  Of course they're inhumans, they're the royal Targaryen family.  And considering that one of my primary theories is that Rhaegar planned on burning some infant King's Blood to bring back the dragons, something like that kind of pales in comparison.

Of course, it also goes without saying, that there are many theories out there that envision, just such a scenario, that Elia's baby boy is taken from her in an elaborate switcheroo.

ETA: If you're uncomfortable with laying the blame with Rhaegar, just assume that Aerys is the asshole.  After all, if Aerys wanted to see what his grandkid looked like, do you think he would have given a fuck if Elia was well enough to travel?  

[Odej]

41 minutes ago, Frey family reunion said:

Well technically the first time Aegon's mentioned, his brains have been splattered on the floor of the Red Keep.  But I think I see where you're coming from.  Are we 100% sure that Dany's vision in the House of the Undying took place after Harrenhal?  I mean that's kind of my assumption, but I don't necessarily know that for a fact.

No, we don't.

The only thing we know for sure about this vision is that the man and the woman in it are Rhaegar and Elia. The place and time in which it takes place is unknown.

[Mister Smikes]

1 hour ago, Frey family reunion said:

This is me giving a big shrug.  Of course they're inhumans, they're the royal Targaryen family.  And considering that one of my primary theories is that Rhaegar planned on burning some infant King's Blood to bring back the dragons, something like that kind of pales in comparison.

Of course, it also goes without saying, that there are many theories out there that envision, just such a scenario, that Elia's baby boy is taken from her in an elaborate switcheroo.

I will follow where the evidence leads, even if it leads to the abnormal or the unusual.

Can you give any reason, of any modest weight, why we should believe that Rhaella was presented to the King and Queen when she was (say) about 3 months old as opposed to when she was (say) about 9 months old?

Why postulate 2 ocean voyages bringing mother and child separately, when we can have one ocean voyage bringing them together?  It's Occham's Razor, if nothing else. 

Because that's what I thought we were discussing:  where to place Rhaella's presentation at KL on the timeline.

1 hour ago, Frey family reunion said:

ETA: If you're uncomfortable with laying the blame with Rhaegar, just assume that Aerys is the asshole.  After all, if Aerys wanted to see what his grandkid looked like, do you think he would have given a fuck if Elia was well enough to travel?  

I'm not convinced Aerys had any interest in seeing his grandaughter at all.  But if we were actually faced with a problem that needed solving, that might be a solution.

[Mister Smikes]

On 10/30/2021 at 11:40 AM, Megorova said:

The info that Robert was wounded at Ashford is from the App - George R. R. Martin's A World of Ice and Fire, Robert Baratheon.

Occham's Razor would prefer that Robert be wounded only twice, rather than three times.    So if Robert really was wounded at Ashford, and at the Battle of the Bells, and at the Trident, then Occham's razor prefers that the first two be the same wound.  Which would place Ashford before Bells.

I'm not sure I trust the App on this point, however.  This plausibly looks only like an inference by Linda and Elio, rather than anything necessarily based on input from GRRM.  If @Ran or anyone else wants to correct me on this point, I will happily stand corrected.  I am also slightly prejudiced against the App for the selfish reason that I do not own a version that I can check for myself.

If it is just an inference, I am not convinced by it.  Robert withdrew his forces after Ashford (implying, perhaps, that they left the Stormlands and went North into the Riverlands), but none of Robert's forces were involved in the Battle of the Bells.  Robert was alone in Stoney Sept, without his forces, for reasons unknown.  Nor is there reason to assume that if Robert was wounded, he must have been wounded in a named battle.  Surely, if he had been wounded with his army, they are unlikely to have left him behind.  Ashford may have been a victory, but it does not seem to have been a rout.

Against the App must be weighed the following passage from TWOIAF, which is also (at least) "Semi-Canon" and I think plausibly more canon than the App is: 

"The royalist forces were left reeling and scattered by such victories though they did their best to rally. The Kingsguard were dispatched to recover the remnant of Lord Connington's force, and Prince Rhaegar returned from the south to take command of the new levies being raised in the crownlands. And after a partial victory at Ashford, which led to Robert's withdrawal, the Stormlands were left open to Lord Tyrell. Bringing the might of the Reach to bear, the reachlords swept away all resistance and settled in to besiege Storm's End. Shortly afterward, the host was joined by Lord Paxter Redwyne's mighty fleet from the Arbor, completing the siege by land and sea. That siege wore on until the conclusion of the war."

"Such victories" is a reference to the previous paragraph, which prominently included the Battle of the Bells.  Everything that follows seems, in context, to be an example of the royalist forces doing their "best to rally" after such losses.  Plausibly, one could parse this so that the subjugation of the reach was an example of an attempt to rally, and the Battle of Ashford was merely background information preceding it.  Or maybe Ashford was an attempt to rally after the Battle of Summerhall, and maybe Rhaegar and the Kingsguard are an attempt to rally after the Battle of the Bells, and none of it is otherwise meant to be chronological.  But certainly the most natural assumption of anyone reading TWOIAF without considering the App, or any other evidence, would be that the Battle of Ashford followed the Battle of the Bells.

[Frey family reunion]

4 hours ago, Mister Smikes said:

I will follow where the evidence leads, even if it leads to the abnormal or the unusual.

Can you give any reason, of any modest weight, why we should believe that Rhaella was presented to the King and Queen when she was (say) about 3 months old as opposed to when she was (say) about 9 months old?

Why postulate 2 ocean voyages bringing mother and child separately, when we can have one ocean voyage bringing them together?  It's Occham's Razor, if nothing else. 

Because that's what I thought we were discussing:  where to place Rhaella's presentation at KL on the timeline.

I think the implication from the Worldbook is that Rhaegar moved his family to Dragonstone, which caused quite the stir, as it only added fuel to the fire about Rhaegar looking to depose Aerys.  Rhaegar is the only one mentioned returning to King’s Landing to present his daughter to Aerys.  No mention of Elia.  Other than their trip to Harrenhal, every mention of Elia deals with her in Dragonstone.  Until the war starts, and Aerys un subtly reminds the Dornes that he is “holding” Elia at King’s Landing.

My takeaway, is that Rhaegar was purposely trying to keep his family away from King’s Landing, and probably from Aerys.  When the war started, and Rhaegar was away, presumably Aerys orders Elia and her children back to King’s Landing, determined to basically make her a hostage to ensure Dorne’s cooperation.  Just like he ordered Jaime to remain in King’s Landing with him, as a potential hostage against any betrayal by Tywin.

Here is the bit I’m speaking of:

Quote

When Prince Rhaegar and his new wife chose to take up residence on Dragonstone instead of the Red Keep, rumors flew thick and fast across the Seven Kingdoms. Some claimed that the crown prince was planning to depose his father and seize the Iron Throne for himself, whilst others said that King Aerys meant to disinherit Rhaegar and name Viserys heir in his place. Nor did the birth of King Aerys’s first grandchild, a girl named Rhaenys, born on Dragonstone in 280 AC, do aught to reconcile father and son. When Prince Rhaegar returned to the Red Keep to present his daughter to his own mother and father, Queen Rhaella embraced the babe warmly, but King Aerys refused to touch or hold the child and complained that she “smells Dornish.”

 

[Mister Smikes]

48 minutes ago, Frey family reunion said:

Rhaegar is the only one mentioned returning to King’s Landing to present his daughter to Aerys.  No mention of Elia.  

No wetnurse is mentioned either.  No sailors are mentioned either.  This does not prove he paddled across the ocean in a one-man rowboat, with the baby and a bottle of formula.

Quote

Other than their trip to Harrenhal, every mention of Elia deals with her in Dragonstone.  

Not true.  She was at Harrenhal.  And she probably got there by way of King's Landing, and returned by the same route.

And though it is not airtight, I don't think we can entirely dismiss the suggestion that she may have been at KL at the time of Aegon's conception.

Quote

My takeaway, is that Rhaegar was purposely trying to keep his family away from King’s Landing, and probably from Aerys.

He brings his family to Dragonstone after the wedding.  He brings his family back to King's Landing when he comes to present Rhaenys.  He sends his family back to Dragonstone after returning to King's Landing after the Tourney of Harrenhall.  Three ocean voyages in two years suffice to explain the evidence.  Occham's Razor applies  (entities are not to be multiplied without necessity).  

Quote

 When the war started, and Rhaegar was away, presumably Aerys orders Elia and her children back to King’s Landing, determined to basically make her a hostage to ensure Dorne’s cooperation.  

Plausible.  

[StarksInTheNorth]

19 hours ago, Mourning Star said:

@Mister Smikes

I consider the Timeline of Robert's Rebellion to be one this series's original and core mysteries.

I'm preparing more interesting comment, but I find myself having trouble confirming one basic fact...

Why do we believe Aegon, son of Rhaegar, was born on Dragonstone?

It is in assumption made based on textual evidence. We know that Aegon was on Dragonstone at some point because TWOIAF tells us that "Nor could [Rhaegar] be found in Dragonstone with Princess Elia and their young son, Aegon." Also from TWOIAF, we know that Elia and Rhaegar took up residence on the island and that Rhaenys was born there: "When Prince Rhaegar and his new wife chose to take up residence on Dragonstone instead of the Red Keep, rumors flew thick and fast across the Seven Kingdoms.. . . .Nor did the birth of King Aerys's first grandchild, a girl named Rhaenys, born on Dragonstone in 280 AC, do aught to reconcile father and son."

The thought process goes "Rhaegar and Elia's primary residence was Dragonstone. Rhaenys was born on Dragonstone and Aegon was on Dragonstone after his birth. Therefore, Aegon was most likely born at his parents primary residence, the same place his sister was."

It could be otherwise, although I have not ever seen any evidence that makes me personally believe he was born elsewhere.

The other bit of evidence that is significantly more speculative is that Rhaegar likely knew that the Prince Who Was Promised had to be born amidst salt and smoke and that like Melisandre, he assumed that place was Dragonstone.

[LynnS]

13 minutes ago, StarksInTheNorth said:

The other bit of evidence that is significantly more speculative is that Rhaegar likely knew that the Prince Who Was Promised had to be born amidst salt and smoke and that like Melisandre, he assumed that place was Dragonstone.

I tend to agree with this.  In Dany's vision of Rhaegar; he claims that Aegon is the PWIP.  Which implies to me that Aegon fits at least one of the criteria for that other prophecy related to the appearance of a comet and being born in a place of salt and smoke.  Rhaegar claims that Aegon was conceived when a comet appeared and that implies that he thought the comet was a herald for the PWIP.  So it makes sense that he would take steps to ensure that Aegon was born at Dragonstone and if Dany's vision was true - that he attended the birth.

[Mourning Star]

1 hour ago, StarksInTheNorth said:

It is in assumption made based on textual evidence. We know that Aegon was on Dragonstone at some point because TWOIAF tells us that "Nor could [Rhaegar] be found in Dragonstone with Princess Elia and their young son, Aegon." Also from TWOIAF, we know that Elia and Rhaegar took up residence on the island and that Rhaenys was born there: "When Prince Rhaegar and his new wife chose to take up residence on Dragonstone instead of the Red Keep, rumors flew thick and fast across the Seven Kingdoms.. . . .Nor did the birth of King Aerys's first grandchild, a girl named Rhaenys, born on Dragonstone in 280 AC, do aught to reconcile father and son."

The thought process goes "Rhaegar and Elia's primary residence was Dragonstone. Rhaenys was born on Dragonstone and Aegon was on Dragonstone after his birth. Therefore, Aegon was most likely born at his parents primary residence, the same place his sister was."

It could be otherwise, although I have not ever seen any evidence that makes me personally believe he was born elsewhere.

The other bit of evidence that is significantly more speculative is that Rhaegar likely knew that the Prince Who Was Promised had to be born amidst salt and smoke and that like Melisandre, he assumed that place was Dragonstone.

And I always made this assumption as well, but in retrospect it may be just that, an assumption.

56 minutes ago, LynnS said:

I tend to agree with this.  In Dany's vision of Rhaegar; he claims that Aegon is the PWIP.  Which implies to me that Aegon fits at least one of the criteria for that other prophecy related to the appearance of a comet and being born in a place of salt and smoke.  Rhaegar claims that Aegon was conceived when a comet appeared and that implies that he thought the comet was a herald for the PWIP.  So it makes sense that he would take steps to ensure that Aegon was born at Dragonstone and if Dany's vision was true - that he attended the birth.

Except that the comet was seen over King's Landing, and Rhaegar used to think the prophesy was about him, born at Summerhall, so we have reason to believe the location for the birth of the promised prince is negotiable for him.

It would take no stretch of imagination to call Harrenhall a place of salt and smoke!

What if Aegon was born at Harrenhall, and Rhaegar discovered Elia would have no more children before crowning Lyanna Queen of Love and Beauty? What if the vision in the House of the Undying is Dany seeing through Lyanna's eyes?

[Megorova]

22 hours ago, Mister Smikes said:

So, your position is that Rhaegar and Elia were at Harrenhal at the end of the Tourney some time in November, 281.

Then, they galloped to King's Landing with the heavily pregnant Elia.

Then they got on a ship and sailed to Dragonstone.

Then Elia gave birth to Aegon and almost died.

Then Rhaegar said "Ta-ta my love, I've got to go places."

Then Rhaegar got on a ship and sailed to King's Landing.

Then Rhaegar departed KIng's Landing with his 6 companions.

No, my version is that Aegon was conceived at King's Landing, on April 1st of 281, when Rhaegar and Elia (both of them) came to the court to present their daughter to the King. Rhaegar was the one who did the introduction, but Elia also was there, with her husband and daughter. Then Rhaegar went without Elia, but with Rhaenys, to Storm's End, where he participated in the tournament held by Robert in honor of his deceased father, that's why it was called Lord Steffon's Tourney, and Robert, who was on that tournament defeated by Rhaegar, was referred to as - Lord Robert Baratheon. Then Rhaegar and his daughter, depending on where Elia was, went either at KL, if that's where Elia was, and then the three of them together went home to Dragonstone, and in case if after Rhaegar and Rhaenys parted with Elia, she went home to Dragonstone alone, then after the Storm's End, Rhaegar and Rhaenys sailed directly to Dragonstone, without making a stop at KL. 

Then for the Harrenhal's tournament, which was held on October 27th - November 5th, Rhaegar and Elia sailed from Dragonstone to KL, where they picked up King Aerys. The trip from KL to Harrenhal lasted approximately 78 hours (3 days 6 hours). So during the tournament Elia was 7 months pregnant (April, May, June, July, August, September, October). After the tournament Aerys, Rhaegar and Elia again boarded their ship and sailed to KL. The return trip lasted the same 78 hours, so if they departed from Harrenhal on November 6th at 9AM, then the ship arrived to KL on November 9th at 4PM. Then Aerys went to the Red Keep, and Elia with Rhaegar sailed to Dragonstone. The distance between KL and Dragonstone is approximately the same as between KL and Harrenhal, so it would have taken Elia And Rhaegar additional 78 hours to get from KL to Dragonstone. So if they departed from KL at 4PM of November 9th, then they would have arrived home at 10PM of November 12th. So at that time Elia was 7 months and 12 days pregnant.

Then, after 9 months of pregnancy (April, May, June, July, August, September, October, November, December) Elia gave birth to Aegon, at Dragonstone. If her pregnancy lasted exactly 9 months, then Aegon was born either on December 31st of 281, or on January 1st of 282. Though if Elia's pregnancy was 40 weeks long, then she gave birth to Aegon on January 10th or 11th or 12th of 282.

When Rhaegar found out that his child is a boy, then based on the comet, that he saw on the night of Aegon's conception, he thought that this child could be the Prince that was Promised. Rhaegar remembered reading something about the PTWP being conceived or born under the bleeding stars. So he went again thru those scrolls with the prophecy, and additionally had read there information that the PTWP is supposed to be one out of the three heads of the Dragon. So Rhaegar interpreted it in such a way that he thought that he is supposed to have one more child. He shared that information with Elia, they talked and decided that Rhaegar will go to the 7K, to find there a suitable woman that will bear for him his third child. That was in January of 282.

Rhaegar needed assistance with his searches for the appropriate candidate, so he sent a raven with a message to Oswell Whent and Arthur Dayne to KL, and to the other 4 of his future companions. Then on his ship he departed from Dragonstone, made a short stop at KL, and without going off board, picked up the two Kingsguards and the other four (either they were also at KL, or he picked them up on his way to the Riverlands). Then the seven of them sailed to Harrenhal, to negotiate with Wynafrei Whent's parents. Then they sailed from the God's Eye down the Blackwater Rush, then thru the Gullet and the Bay of Crabs, then up the Trident's Red Fork to Riverrun. Then, after Riverrun, they left the ship and went via land to the Raventree Hall. From there, after they found out about Melantha Blackwood marrying with a Stark, they went back to their ship, and then sailed either thru the White Knife river to Winterfell, or they went to The Wall to visit maester Aemon, in which case they sailed thru the Bay of Seals to Eastwatch-by-the-Sea, left their ship there and went via land to Castle Black. Afterwards they returned to their ship and sailed to Harrenhal. And that's where approximately in the middle of September of 282, Rhaegar "kidnapped" Lyanna, when instead of turning west to the River Road, which would have led her to Riverrun, Lyanna kept going south via the Kingsroad and arrived to the God's Eye, where Rhaegar was waiting for her. Because they agreed to elope, when they met somewhere in The North, during Rhaegar's trip there. And then from the God's Eye their ship sailed to Dorne, Starfall. That's where under the bleeding stars was conceived Jon. Because there were falling stars depicted everywhere in the Starfall's interior.

On this same ship Rhaegar then went from Dorne to KL, and when he went to the Trident, via land with the Targaryen-troops, he left his ship at KL. Then later Aerys sent it to take Elia and her children from Dragonstone. When Queen Rhaella and Viserys went to Dragonstone, they took one of Aerys' ships, and Rhaegar's ship probably was staying at the Blackwater Bay's port. Maybe later Willem Darry used this ship to go to Dragonstone, and then across the Narrow Sea to Braavos, where he brought with him Dany and Viserys. Or not, maybe all those deeds were done by using different ships, and not the same one. Who knows?

Also it was previously discussed in this thread, why everyone just assumed that Aegon was born at Dragonstone, and not at KL. ->

Melisandre thinks that Stannis is the Promised Prince, for the same reason why Rhaegar thought that Aegon is the PTWP, and why later maester Aemon thought that the PTWP is Dany. Because Aegon and Dany were born at Dragonstone, and because Stannis is an official Prince of Dragonstone, while the actual Prince of Dragonstone is Jon. Probably Dragonstone was featured in the texts of the prophecy, that's why Rhaegar, after it became known that his newborn child is a boy, decided that this boy is the PTWP - because he was conceived under the bleeding star (that comet of April 1st of 281), and because he was born at Dragonstone.

[LynnS]

10 minutes ago, Mourning Star said:

It would take no stretch of imagination to call Harrenhall a place of salt and smoke!

What if the place of smoke and salt is the Smoking Sea?  Most likely the original place related to the prophecy.  So none of the other locations, however contrived to be the place where AA is reborn may be true. We are talking about what characters think the prophecy means and in the case of Rhaegar and Aerys, trying to make it happen.  I think the PWIP and AA stories are separate but related.  The PWIP prophecy might only be about the return of dragons since this seems to be what Aerys was about at Summerhall.  The comet is likely the herald for the Warrior of Light who is yet  to show up; but preceded by the mother of dragons. 

[Frey family reunion]

1 hour ago, StarksInTheNorth said:

The other bit of evidence that is significantly more speculative is that Rhaegar likely knew that the Prince Who Was Promised had to be born amidst salt and smoke and that like Melisandre, he assumed that place was Dragonstone.

While this certainly may have been a factor, I’m not sure it’s needed to assume that Elia would have mostly stayed at Dragonstone during this time period.

We’re told that Rhaegar’s relationship with Aerys was at an all time low at this point.  It’s also told that Aerys’ behavior was getting much worse.  So it’s not a stretch that Rhaegar may have been actively keeping Elia away from King’s Landing and his increasingly insane father.

[The Wondering Wolf]

On 11/2/2021 at 1:36 AM, Mister Smikes said:

Against the App must be weighed the following passage from TWOIAF, which is also (at least) "Semi-Canon" and I think plausibly more canon than the App is: 

"The royalist forces were left reeling and scattered by such victories though they did their best to rally. The Kingsguard were dispatched to recover the remnant of Lord Connington's force, and Prince Rhaegar returned from the south to take command of the new levies being raised in the crownlands. And after a partial victory at Ashford, which led to Robert's withdrawal, the Stormlands were left open to Lord Tyrell. Bringing the might of the Reach to bear, the reachlords swept away all resistance and settled in to besiege Storm's End. Shortly afterward, the host was joined by Lord Paxter Redwyne's mighty fleet from the Arbor, completing the siege by land and sea. That siege wore on until the conclusion of the war."

"Such victories" is a reference to the previous paragraph, which prominently included the Battle of the Bells.  Everything that follows seems, in context, to be an example of the royalist forces doing their "best to rally" after such losses.  Plausibly, one could parse this so that the subjugation of the reach was an example of an attempt to rally, and the Battle of Ashford was merely background information preceding it.  Or maybe Ashford was an attempt to rally after the Battle of Summerhall, and maybe Rhaegar and the Kingsguard are an attempt to rally after the Battle of the Bells, and none of it is otherwise meant to be chronological.  But certainly the most natural assumption of anyone reading TWOIAF without considering the App, or any other evidence, would be that the Battle of Ashford followed the Battle of the Bells.

The passage in TWOIAF was changed to:

The partial victory at Ashford, which led to Robert's march to the riverlands, had left the Stormlands open to Lord Tyrell.

[Mister Smikes]

6 hours ago, The Wondering Wolf said:

The passage in TWOIAF was changed to:

The partial victory at Ashford, which led to Robert's march to the riverlands, had left the Stormlands open to Lord Tyrell.

It essentially amounts to the same thing, since I assumed he withdrew to the Riverlands anyway.    But thanks for the information.

Note again that the description of the Battle of the Bells has no indication that Robert's forces are anywhere in the Riverlands yet.  Robert is, for some mysterious reason, alone at Stoney Sept.

[The Wondering Wolf]

1 hour ago, Mister Smikes said:

It essentially amounts to the same thing, since I assumed he withdrew to the Riverlands anyway.    But thanks for the information.

Note again that the description of the Battle of the Bells has no indication that Robert's forces are anywhere in the Riverlands yet.  Robert is, for some mysterious reason, alone at Stoney Sept.

I remember the same discussion from years ago when Elio clarified that Battle of the Bells took place after Ashford. Someone complained that the Worldbook wasn't clear enough in that regard, so the change was implemented to make it clearer. That's all I can say about this. But it's interesting indeed that it seems Robert didn't have much support with him after Ashford.

[Mister Smikes]

59 minutes ago, The Wondering Wolf said:

I remember the same discussion from years ago when Elio clarified that Battle of the Bells took place after Ashford. Someone complained that the Worldbook wasn't clear enough in that regard, so the change was implemented to make it clearer. 

Elio is not a canon source.  But if Elio says that GRRM told him that Bells was after Ashford, I will happily believe him.  But nobody seems to be claiming that.

To the extent TWOIAF is canon or semi-canon because GRRM reviewed and/or edited and/or approved its text, both versions of the quote are equally ambiguous as to whether Bells took place after Ashford.  

[The Wondering Wolf]

6 minutes ago, Mister Smikes said:

Elio is not a canon source.  But if Elio says that GRRM told him that Bells was after Ashford, I will happily believe him.  But nobody seems to be claiming that.

Well, yes, that's what I'm claiming.

[Mister Smikes]

7 minutes ago, The Wondering Wolf said:

Well, yes, that's what I'm claiming.

Well then if you could find the source, it would be appreciated.

[The Wondering Wolf]

Just now, Mister Smikes said:

Well then if you could find the source, it would be appreciated.

That was years ago, no idea where to look for it. Maybe we can ask @Ran to confirm once more that at the time the Worldbook was released GRRM had placed the Battle of Bells after Ashford.

[StarksInTheNorth]

So I was just trying to do some math and scrolling through the search of the books. Essentially seeing whose ages I could use to find out dates, maybe. And if we can figure out when Margaery was conceived and born, we might be able to figure out exactly when she was conceived, which would help us set a pre-date for Mace’s Battle at Ashford and the Siege of Storm’s End.

Margaery Tyrell was 15 when she meets Catelyn in mid-299 and 16 by her wedding on 1/1/300. That math has her born towards mid-late 283. But she’s also 16 in Sansa’s chapter before her wedding, so she turned 16 at some point between say May and November or so.

I haven’t done these same calculations for Loras, but they’re born a year apart or so.

Does this seem like a worthwhile rabbit hole for me to continue going down or is it probably a case of “GRRM didn’t do the exact math for Margaery’s conception”?

and if anyone says she’s secretly the love child of Rhaegar and Ashara I will scream.