Wade1865 Posted October 12, 2022 Share Posted October 12, 2022 Jamie Dimon (CEO, JPM) -- said it first, and recently confirmed we may see another (and more painful) 20% or so decline in the S&P 500, and I tend to trust his judgement on this; though, neither of us knows for sure. We're in the eye of the hurricane now, bracing for the second act. Then, we'll experience the rest of the recession, which will occur over years, as much as a decade. As I said, this will be the last general wealth-building event I'll actively exploit, which will be followed by a generation of prosperity. Key consideration (Ray Dalio; Founder, Bridgewater Associates): credit. *** DJIA. JAN 2021, 35,100; OCT 2022, 29,300; down -17%. NASDAQ. AUG 2021, 15,500; OCT 2022, 10,500; down -32%. S&P 500. SEP 2021, 4,550; OCT 2022, 3550; down -22%. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paxter Posted October 13, 2022 Share Posted October 13, 2022 (edited) Hard to really argue with Dimon on the further 20% from here. Inflation in the US is running incredibly hot, with Core CPI (a stickier view of inflation) now rising to 6.6% (new print out today - highest number we have seen so far this year). That implies a negative real interest rate, even after the 300bps of tightening we have seen so far this year. Many think we need to see positive real interest rates before demand will really start to taper off and take the heat off prices. Others think that we have done enough tightening and should pause for about 6 months to view the lagged effects of rate hikes. I think most central bankers are in the former camp. Edited October 13, 2022 by Paxter Wade1865 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wade1865 Posted October 13, 2022 Share Posted October 13, 2022 On 9/14/2022 at 3:59 PM, Wade1865 said: US Inflation Rates. UPDATE -- inflation showing several months of steady but minimal decreases, though it's less than what was expected given the major Fed rate increases (five times since March!). Unfortunately, as Paxter mentioned, core inflation (i.e., excluding food and energy) has increased. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ 2022 SEP 8.2 [current] AUG 8.3 JUL 8.5 JUN 9.1 [peak] Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jeor Posted October 13, 2022 Share Posted October 13, 2022 Big market rally despite the higher-than-expected inflation news, but we've seen this story before. In previous months there have been big rallies off seeming bad news (e.g. Fed tightening or a bigger inflation print) but the market has given back its gains in the next few days. Hard to see how this one holds up, with core inflation still on the rise, but I guess people are taking heart from the fact that the general gauge seems to have peaked. Wade1865 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paxter Posted October 13, 2022 Share Posted October 13, 2022 (edited) 3 hours ago, Jeor said: Big market rally despite the higher-than-expected inflation news, but we've seen this story before. In previous months there have been big rallies off seeming bad news (e.g. Fed tightening or a bigger inflation print) but the market has given back its gains in the next few days. Hard to see how this one holds up, with core inflation still on the rise, but I guess people are taking heart from the fact that the general gauge seems to have peaked. I think this rip is just due to some pricing support around 3,500 on the S&P. The inflation number was a confirmation of the status quo so not able to move the market meaningfully. The "Dimon Drop" will require more information on the breadth and length of the expected downturn and its effects on earnings and/or financial markets. We probably won't have that knowledge this year. ETA: Forgot to add that lots of traders are expecting the market to bounce when the GOP win the House in Nov and Congress is gridlocked for two years. Markets love that. So this is a nice buying opportunity if you are expecting that Fall bounce. Edited October 13, 2022 by Paxter Wade1865 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paxter Posted October 13, 2022 Share Posted October 13, 2022 Separately, there might be a few whiskeys being downed on Threadneedle St tonight. Bailey can probably relax as Truss prepares a complete fiscal u-turn. That should take the pressure off gilts and the pension funds. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jeor Posted October 14, 2022 Share Posted October 14, 2022 It remains to be seen how complete the U-turn is. Jeremy Hunt is a moderate, so that helps, but Kwarteng has done a lot of damage in such a short time and confidence in UK fiscal policy isn't going to bounce back that quickly. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paxter Posted October 14, 2022 Share Posted October 14, 2022 1 hour ago, Jeor said: It remains to be seen how complete the U-turn is. Jeremy Hunt is a moderate, so that helps, but Kwarteng has done a lot of damage in such a short time and confidence in UK fiscal policy isn't going to bounce back that quickly. You're not wrong. Yields on gilts actually went up again today quite sharply after the Truss announcement, which is not what Bailey was looking for! We will have to see whether bond-buying starts again on Monday. Wade1865 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jeor Posted October 15, 2022 Share Posted October 15, 2022 As much as Kwarteng had to go because of bad policy and the market not trusting him, the fact that Truss is still there is hardly reassuring. Kind of ironic that the tax-cutting trickle-down evangelist is finding that free markets, big business and investors are a double-edged sword. One gets the feeling that Rishi Sunak is really the only Tory who could calm the bond markets down from here. Whether it's by changing the leadership rules, or convincing Truss they have the numbers to do so and getting her to resign of her own accord, the Conservatives have to get him in if they want any chance of salvaging anything other than complete annihilation at the next election. Wade1865 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wade1865 Posted October 15, 2022 Share Posted October 15, 2022 I never had a 401K; but if I did, it'd now be a 301K. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paxter Posted October 15, 2022 Share Posted October 15, 2022 41 minutes ago, Wade1865 said: I never had a 401K; but if I did, it'd now be a 301K. I think long-term investors in diversified portfolios are still in pretty good shape, unless they only just got into investing during the pandemic. The main victims so far are people who put all their Covid savings into Bitcoin or Peleton. Wade1865 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wade1865 Posted October 15, 2022 Share Posted October 15, 2022 33 minutes ago, Paxter said: I think long-term investors in diversified portfolios are still in pretty good shape, unless they only just got into investing during the pandemic. The main victims so far are people who put all their Covid savings into Bitcoin or Peleton. Paxter -- it was shocking to see those investments sink in value, and I sympathize given that I doubt they'll recover. I'm curious to see how the UK bond market performs on Monday, though it's beyond my understanding for now. According to this source, 401K savers have seen a 20% drop in Q2 2022, compared to a year prior; or a 15% drop from Q1. I wonder how Q3 numbers will turn out. Anecdotally this reflects the situation of at least one person I know. At this rate it'll be a 201K by next Summer. *** At the moment I'm consolidating cash for deployment and not buying anything (while holding current positions to avoid significant realized losses, hahaha). My tentative plan is to buy up reliable large-cap dividend stocks and hold for the long term; though, some tech stocks looks interesting. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BigFatCoward Posted October 16, 2022 Share Posted October 16, 2022 My stocks and shares ISA is performing terribly. Its meant to pay for the kids uni and a deposit for a house for them. It's about 5% down on what I invested and 15% down on 18 months ago. I know over 18 years it will make money but every time I check (which I know is pointless) I wish I'd just bought lottery tickets instead. Wade1865 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paxter Posted October 16, 2022 Share Posted October 16, 2022 (edited) 3 hours ago, BigFatCoward said: My stocks and shares ISA is performing terribly. Its meant to pay for the kids uni and a deposit for a house for them. It's about 5% down on what I invested and 15% down on 18 months ago. I know over 18 years it will make money but every time I check (which I know is pointless) I wish I'd just bought lottery tickets instead. You’re doing the right thing. 5% down isn’t too bad (hopefully some dividends are playing an offsetting role) considering the broader market has fallen by much more. But I certainly feel your pain. Clearly you didn’t buy many or any overvalued tech stocks, which is a massive improvement over many other investors!! This week is going to be interesting. Emergency bond buying is over in the UK, being replaced only by a (repo) liquidity facility that banks (not pension funds) can access. If the banks don’t want to use these facilities (they aren’t free), we will likely see bond buying return. Edited October 16, 2022 by Paxter Wade1865 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Takiedevushkikakzvezdy Posted October 16, 2022 Share Posted October 16, 2022 53 minutes ago, Paxter said: Clearly you didn’t buy many or any overvalued tech stocks, which is a massive improvement over many other investors!! Speaking of which, is there a tech tread on this forum? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wade1865 Posted October 28, 2022 Share Posted October 28, 2022 Free Speech -- Preserved I'm curious how many people will abandon Twitter, now that we have a champion of free speech taking over tomorrow. So long as the left wing retains the right to speak their minds (interaction and debate must continue), and the right wing doesn't get out of control (by engaging in reactionary cancel-culture); and deviants are constrained, Elon will be successful. Notable. Elon's new handle, Chief Twit Rumor of 75% firings is not true CEO and CFO fired TWTR's last price reached a high of $54.00 USD Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Week Posted October 28, 2022 Share Posted October 28, 2022 5 minutes ago, Wade1865 said: Free Speech -- Preserved I'm curious how many people will abandon Twitter, now that we have a champion of free speech taking over tomorrow. So long as the left wing retains the right to speak their minds (interaction and debate must continue), and the right wing doesn't get out of control (by engaging in reactionary cancel-culture); and deviants are constrained, Elon will be successful. Notable. Elon's new handle, Chief Twit Rumor of 75% firings is not true CEO and CFO fired TWTR's last price reached a high of $54.00 USD None of this makes any sense at all. Twitter will either have very few changes or will die as an unusable service for a lot of people. Freeze peach arguments are mostly dead on the vine -- private actor and what not, not a public entity. Most of the 'banned' speech is harassment, hatespeech, and harmful disinformation. I've yet to see any examples of topics or dialogues that are banned and contribute to public discussion in a valuable and meaningful way. Wade1865 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wade1865 Posted October 28, 2022 Share Posted October 28, 2022 (edited) On 9/16/2022 at 12:23 AM, Wade1865 said: RAIL STRIKE -- AVERTED ... RAIL STRIKE -- AT RISK Apparently, two unions refused to ratify the agreement despite its generosity. These unions represent 25% of the coalition's membership. Doesn't matter; the strike wouldn't occur until after the mid-terms. Well done, Uncle Joe ... well done Edited October 28, 2022 by Wade1865 edits in red Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wade1865 Posted October 28, 2022 Share Posted October 28, 2022 10 minutes ago, Week said: None of this makes any sense at all. Week -- I see we disagree; good, I like that. We can discuss this further, on Free Speech Twitter, without fear of censorship Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wade1865 Posted October 28, 2022 Share Posted October 28, 2022 Tribel -- a left-leaning (and -led) alternative, ranked 21st in social networking, could become a Twitter refuge, thanks to Elon! It has 1700 ratings, averaging 4.6 out of 5. No doubt, it will surpass all others. Keep an eye out for its IPO. In this Daily Beast article, the platform promises to be free of hate, misinformation, and bots; a place "that nurtures intelligence and kindness instead of hatred.” Ironically Notable Posts. “Lauren Boebert is an AJ char broiled boogedy~boogedy bats*** crazy C--T. and and IDIOT” “So what do we [do] about lindsay Gramme?” “The s*** sucking piece of hillbilly s*** is calling for riots... McConnell too. Investigate his chinese asset wife for colluding with china and trading state secrets. Skanky f****** b**** needs to rot in a cell too, for life.” “These mother f****** are terrorists and should be s***.” Asterisks are my edits; too graphic, even for me. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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