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[Week]

4 hours ago, Wade1865 said:

Week -- I see we disagree; good, I like that. We can discuss this further, on Free Speech Twitter, without fear of censorship 

We could before. You still haven't provided any examples of freeze peach limitations that you found objectionable -- particularly those were Twitter was more restrictive than other platforms (Meta, YouTube, etc.)

[Week]

One of many threads regarding the actual impact on Free Speech (hint: protection of speech from government retribution not censorship, as conservatives often confuse).

More relevant detail: https://www.techdirt.com/2022/04/26/twitters-legal-team-has-been-an-aggressive-defender-of-free-speech-will-that-continue-under-musk/

Edited October 28, 2022 by Week

[Heartofice]

11 hours ago, Wade1865 said:

Free Speech -- Preserved

I'm curious how many people will abandon Twitter, now that we have a champion of free speech taking over tomorrow. So long as the left wing retains the right to speak their minds (interaction and debate must continue), and the right wing doesn't get out of control (by engaging in reactionary cancel-culture); and deviants are constrained, Elon will be successful.

Notable.

• Elon's new handle, Chief Twit
• Rumor of 75% firings is not true
• CEO and CFO fired
• TWTR's last price reached a high of $54.00 USD

It really all depends what he does with it. It's very well being all about Free Speech, but if a lot of the platform is nameless bots and trolls just stirring up trouble then speech has almost no value. 

I don't know what his solutions will be, though he seems to have identified some of the problems that Twitter has. Personally I think far too much of the public discourse is distorted by 'stuff someone said on twitter', and mad comments made by some random below the line troll are given far too much weight (except of course if the troll is the President)

The hysteria about his takeover is very telling however. I'm very interested to see what happens next.

[Wade1865]

7 hours ago, Week said:

We could before. You still haven't provided any examples of freeze peach limitations that you found objectionable -- particularly those were Twitter was more restrictive than other platforms (Meta, YouTube, etc.)

Week -- nah; old Twitter permanently banned the God Emperor, his freedom of speech was denied there. New Twitter will reverse that error, free speech will be restored.

If you don’t like this, that’s not my problem 

[Week]

26 minutes ago, Wade1865 said:

Week -- nah; old Twitter permanently banned the God Emperor, his freedom of speech was denied there. New Twitter will reverse that error, free speech will be restored.

If you don’t like this, that’s not my problem 

Stop misusing the term free speech - what you're referencing had literally nothing to do with free speech. You are talking about content moderation - which all platforms do (other than 8kun and all that shit).

[Heartofice]

I mean this is probably another topic not meant for the Investments thread, but quite often it boils down to whether something like Twitter can be viewed as a private company who can make whatever rules they wish and moderate as they wish, or is it a 'public town square' where 'free speech' rules are aligned to national policy and law.

That has been the struggle for a while. Musk is clearly in the town square camp, but that raises a hell of a lot of challenges and unless he knows something we don't it's going to be very difficult to create that environment or bring about the vision he is claiming is possible.

[Wade1865]

3 minutes ago, Week said:

Stop misusing the term free speech - what you're referencing had literally nothing to do with free speech. You are talking about content moderation - which all platforms do (other than 8kun and all that shit).

Week -- I don't care how you define free speech; I'll use the term as I see fit. When the God Emperor was permanently banned, his freedom of speech was denied on the platform. Though, it's irrelevant at this point; he will regain his voice on Twitter.

Adios, Parag & Ned, et al. Adios!

[Wade1865]

6 minutes ago, Heartofice said:

I mean this is probably another topic not meant for the Investments thread, but quite often it boils down to whether something like Twitter can be viewed as a private company who can make whatever rules they wish and moderate as they wish, or is it a 'public town square' where 'free speech' rules are aligned to national policy and law.

That has been the struggle for a while. Musk is clearly in the town square camp, but that raises a hell of a lot of challenges and unless he knows something we don't it's going to be very difficult to create that environment or bring about the vision he is claiming is possible.

Heartofice -- I'll allow it; it fits well here, especially as a consideration if TWTR returns to the market. For now, if Elon pursues the "town square" approach, especially if he facilitates profit for influencers (on both sides), the platform could become more profitable.

We want the left wing and the right to particpate; to interact; to engage. We don't want it to turn into 4chan or Tribel.

[Week]

24 minutes ago, Wade1865 said:

Week -- I don't care how you define free speech; I'll use the term as I see fit. When the God Emperor was permanently banned, his freedom of speech was denied on the platform. Though, it's irrelevant at this point; he will regain his voice on Twitter.

Adios, Parag & Ned, et al. Adios!

Ok, well, excellent engagement. I'll leave you to your confusion. Hope that the burgeoning deluge of racism, Nazism, and abuse that has already begun is more to your taste for content moderation. 

The outgoing leadership did a lot of work to protect Free Speech -- i.e., protection FROM THE GOVERNMENT -- that I liked above. Feel free to better educate yourself.

[Wade1865]

2 minutes ago, Week said:

Ok, well, excellent engagement. I'll leave you to your confusion. Hope that the burgeoning deluge of racism, Nazism, and abuse that has already begun is more to your taste for content moderation. 

The outgoing leadership did a lot of work to protect Free Speech -- i.e., protection FROM THE GOVERNMENT -- that I liked above. Feel free to better educate yourself.

Week -- thanks for your concern, but there's no confusion here about what free speech means to me re to the God Emperor. Correspondigly, I don't want to see my ideological opponents marginalized.

As Lindy wrote on Twitter, "Don't leave...Don't cede...This is our ... town square, too."

[Week]

4 minutes ago, Wade1865 said:

Week -- thanks for your concern, but there's no confusion here about what free speech means to me re to the God Emperor. Correspondigly, I don't want to see my ideological opponents marginalized.

As Lindy wrote on Twitter, "Don't leave...Don't cede...This is our ... town square, too."

I'd love to have my cake and eat it to -- unfortunately reality comes fast. You don't seem to grasp the hypocrisies of your positions. Or don't care as long as you're getting the outcome perceived as most beneficial to your ideological brethren.

[Wade1865]

2 minutes ago, Week said:

I'd love to have my cake and eat it to -- unfortunately reality comes fast. You don't seem to grasp the hypocrisies of your positions. Or don't care as long as you're getting the outcome perceived as most beneficial to your ideological brethren.

Week -- I just reviewed my position and found no hypocrisy. And yes, reality comes fast, as Parag and Ned have recently experienced.

[DireWolfSpirit]

I currently wouldnt view Twitter as a strong buy.

On average, Wall Street analysts predict that Twitter's share price could fall to $46.37 by Oct 6, 2023. The average Twitter stock price prediction forecasts a potential downside of 12.15% from the current TWTR share price of $52.78. What is TWTR's Earnings Per Share (EPS) forecast for 2022-2024?

I have no shits to give over it as a platform, have never used it or Meta/FB.

[Kalbear]

It's not going to be a strong buy because it's going private. I believe right now it's delisted. 

[Paxter]

Haha this thread went in an interesting direction.

Back to the broader market, we continue to get a nice Fall bounce, notwithstanding some poor individual Tech performances. I’d expect this surge to continue through the end of the year, particular after the Rs likely success in the Midterms. Next year will likely see us test the ‘22 market lows again as the economy starts to stutter on the back of a higher real interest rate.

ETA: Surprised at no comments on the Meta horror show.

Edited October 28, 2022 by Paxter

[maarsen]

21 minutes ago, Paxter said:

Haha this thread went in an interesting direction.

Back to the broader market, we continue to get a nice Fall bounce, notwithstanding some poor individual Tech performances. I’d expect this surge to continue through the end of the year, particular after the Rs likely success in the Midterms. Next year will likely see us test the ‘22 market lows again as the economy starts to stutter on the back of a higher real interest rate.

ETA: Surprised at no comments on the Meta horror show.

I don't use or invest in Meta or Twitter. Their business model involves pleasing advertisers and users. Considering the users of both, neither would be a buy at any price. I think  Elon just managed to set fire to 44 billion dollars. Twitter was barely profitable with decent moderation of content. 

[Wade1865]

3 hours ago, Paxter said:

Haha this thread went in an interesting direction.

Back to the broader market, we continue to get a nice Fall bounce, notwithstanding some poor individual Tech performances. I’d expect this surge to continue through the end of the year, particular after the Rs likely success in the Midterms. Next year will likely see us test the ‘22 market lows again as the economy starts to stutter on the back of a higher real interest rate.

ETA: Surprised at no comments on the Meta horror show.

Paxter -- it's been fascinating to watch this nightmare in real time. Not just Meta, but the financials; and yet the market keeps going up, which was not what I expected. There's a game being played, but I don't know what it is or who is playing it. Although I'm confident you're right that we're seeing a bounce, the process is unnerving (but in a good way, like watching The Ring).

***

These past two weeks have turned my current stock market holdings from a low of -14% to +1%, with a cumulative time-weighted return of +18%. This wasn't anticipated, wasn't ideal, and wasn't rational! Worse, greed found me and I dipped my toes into tech for the first time -- AMZN, up by +6% and still increasing after hours -- when I noticed it drop into the low-90s. I'm not sure how long I'll hold it; I'll probably ride the inevitable downtrend for as long as needed, then double- or triple-down into it before it recovers again.

My worry was this market would leave me behind before I could liquidate all real estate holdings, but this bounce gives me additional time to relocate capital into the stock market before it reaches its actual bottom. I cannot emphasize enough just how exciting it's been.

[Wade1865]

4 hours ago, maarsen said:

I don't use or invest in Meta or Twitter. Their business model involves pleasing advertisers and users. Considering the users of both, neither would be a buy at any price. I think  Elon just managed to set fire to 44 billion dollars. Twitter was barely profitable with decent moderation of content. 

maarsen -- Mark watched Meta drop from a stock price high of $382.76 USD on 01AUG21 to $97.94. And according to Morningstar, the company was worth over $1 trillion as of last September, but is now at $263 billion in valuation. This nightmare goes beyond the current market selloff, and he's unlikely to recover unless he back off his Metaverse idea.

[Jeor]

Market bounce will depend on Fed easing the rhetoric on the December meeting. I don't think that will happen - they'll commit to staying the course and won't hint about easing back to a 0.5 rate - but even so, I think the market bounce is locked in for the rest of the year, it depends on whether it takes a pause and flattens out or whether it keeps going up and up.

Traditionally when the real economy hits the lowest point is when the market has already begun to take off on the next bull run, so I wouldn't be surprised if it stays choppy but then starts heading back up on the next bull run over the next 6 months.

I've continued drip feeding into stocks which I have done the last couple of months, cash is back down to about 15-20% of my portfolio and the cash I deployed has worked out well. But I might take another pause until we get a confirmation of direction.

[Paxter]

2 hours ago, Jeor said:

Market bounce will depend on Fed easing the rhetoric on the December meeting. I don't think that will happen - they'll commit to staying the course and won't hint about easing back to a 0.5 rate - but even so, I think the market bounce is locked in for the rest of the year, it depends on whether it takes a pause and flattens out or whether it keeps going up and up.

Traditionally when the real economy hits the lowest point is when the market has already begun to take off on the next bull run, so I wouldn't be surprised if it stays choppy but then starts heading back up on the next bull run over the next 6 months.

I don’t foresee the start of an extended bull run until central banks start cutting rates again. Hard to predict when that will happen, but I wouldn’t assume a 6-month window given the terrible starting point of sky-high inflation and ultra loose fiscal and monetary policy.

Perhaps a year from now? Until then, I’d expect us to stay within this year’s second-half trading range, with short-term fluctuations largely driven by technicals and sentiment. Certainly the current bounce has some legs to it as there aren’t many negative catalysts likely to be priced in this year.

But hey, great time to be invested. Peleton at $170 last year (!) was not. 

Edited October 31, 2022 by Paxter