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2 minutes ago, mcbigski said:

If you're saying there's a future where 700 IQ AI with plenty of processor time and 3 laws makes everything asymptotely efficient then maybe I'd get on board.  But really, if you're top down instead of bottom up then you're straight up immoral, results wise.  The elect always know better, but somehow us regular folks in tennis shoes or the occasional python boot, still get stomped on. 

Probably need better game for that ride than just basic negging.   

I'm 29 so that math checks out.

mcbigski -- how so? Everything I wrote was positive and intended that way. Teasing at most, not negging. And definitely not gaming. But I appreciate the analysis!

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7 minutes ago, mcbigski said:

If you're saying there's a future where 700 IQ AI with plenty of processor time and 3 laws makes everything asymptotically efficient then maybe I'd get on board.  But really, if you're top down instead of bottom up then you're straight up immoral, results wise.  The elect always know better, but somehow us regular folks in tennis shoes or the occasional python boot, still get stomped on. 

Probably need better game for that ride than just basic negging.   

I'm 29 so that math checks out.

mcbigski -- based on my readings here, and watching the mainstream media, Uncle Joe has been a force for good. And I must admit his (and the Democrats) policies have elevated my own conditions. I might actually vote for him in 2024, you never know.

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3 minutes ago, Wade1865 said:

mcbigski -- how so? Everything I wrote was positive and intended that way. Teasing at most, not negging. And definitely not gaming. But I appreciate the analysis!

The favorite woman, probationary part.  I'm not saying go full Dennis system but definitely demonstrate value first.

I'm sitting here myself trying to think who my favorite is, and I'm going to shop for new boxer briefs tomorrow if that's not TMI.  

Spoiler

Of course, it's totally YOU.

 

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1 minute ago, mcbigski said:

 

The favorite woman, probationary part.  I'm not saying go full Dennis system but definitely demonstrate value first.

I'm sitting here myself trying to think who my favorite is, and I'm going to shop for new boxer briefs tomorrow if that's not TMI.  

  Reveal hidden contents

Of course, it's totally YOU.

 

mcbigski -- hahaha, awesome (and clever) hidden comments, which only makes me see you more positively. I can now see how you read it that way, but I've interacted with Chataya a few times over nearly two decades and she is the last person I'd intentionally insult or game. I know she's a good person. If you read my response you'd have seen I counter-counterreacted none of her countereactions and actually loved her comments on the petrodollar.

I've promoted you to my third most favorite man on this board.

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5 minutes ago, mcbigski said:

If OsRaven doesn't make the cut to sleep with me, then you won't either buddy.

mcbigski -- I recall OsRavan and something about rolling hills related to land area, and he was hilarious.

edited. Oh, and the most horrific spelling I'd ever seen in my life.

Edited by Wade1865
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16 hours ago, mcbigski said:

But really, if you're top down instead of bottom up then you're straight up immoral, results wise.

Agree 200%.

16 hours ago, mcbigski said:

The elect always know better, but somehow us regular folks in tennis shoes or the occasional python boot, still get stomped on.

That's what silly beliefs in fantasies like "free markets" get you.

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2 hours ago, DireWolfSpirit said:

So I've been surprised to learn recently that the Bond market is actually larger than the equities market, both domestically and Worldwide I believe.

 

Yes, equities markets are the tip of an iceberg. The bond market is the iceberg.

Most consumer debt (credit cards, car loans, student loans) gets bundled up into securitized bonds and sold.

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2 hours ago, DireWolfSpirit said:

So I've been surprised to learn recently that the Bond market is actually larger than the equities market, both domestically and Worldwide I believe.

 

DireWolfSpirit -- I was too! after being first exposed to bonds about a decade and a half or so ago after reading, The Ascent of Money, Niall Ferguson. Phenomenal book. Niall goes into detail about the origin of bonds, explaining why it was such a revolutionary form of finance. He wrote, "'War', declared the ancient Greek philosopher Heraclitus, 'is the father of all things'." More importantly to me (at that point in my life), Niall continues, "[War] was certainly the father of the bond market." Excited just re-reading that!!!

The mutuality of war and bonds is why I'm so intereseted in pursuing it sometime in the future, after more technical study. While stocks have been lucrative, and real estate hyper-lucrative; what I'd really like to get into is the bond market -- I suspect there's opportunity for volatility? And I also suspect old money -- especially families (notably, the Rothschilds) who could be rated as the moneyed interest -- hold much if not most of their wealth there.

Not being a trained economist, I suppose the greater size difference is due to the (much older) bond being a matter of debts, while the (much newer) stock is about ownership. Additionally, while governments and corporations both issue bonds, only corporations issue stock. I don't think governments issue stock. Just musing in this last paragraph.

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I can’t remember where I heard it, maybe the Ezra Klein podcast, but in a discussion on inflation someone said that there was a narrative we could have this loose moneteary policy, lots of QE but never saw any inflation. Except we did see inflation, it was just in assets that were good for rich people, like stocks and housing.

I’ve of course made sure to track a number of markets and invest in them slowly and regularly, but I’m always concerned that the house of cards is gonna fall down at some point. The trend line for stocks makes little real sense over the last decade or so.

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14 hours ago, Wade1865 said:

DireWolfSpirit -- I was too! after being first exposed to bonds about a decade and a half or so ago after reading, The Ascent of Money, Niall Ferguson. Phenomenal book. Niall goes into detail about the origin of bonds, explaining why it was such a revolutionary form of finance. He wrote, "'War', declared the ancient Greek philosopher Heraclitus, 'is the father of all things'." More importantly to me (at that point in my life), Niall continues, "[War] was certainly the father of the bond market." Excited just re-reading that!!!

The mutuality of war and bonds is why I'm so intereseted in pursuing it sometime in the future, after more technical study. While stocks have been lucrative, and real estate hyper-lucrative; what I'd really like to get into is the bond market -- I suspect there's opportunity for volatility? And I also suspect old money -- especially families (notably, the Rothschilds) who could be rated as the moneyed interest -- hold much if not most of their wealth there.

Not being a trained economist, I suppose the greater size difference is due to the (much older) bond being a matter of debts, while the (much newer) stock is about ownership. Additionally, while governments and corporations both issue bonds, only corporations issue stock. I don't think governments issue stock. Just musing in this last paragraph.

Equity is generally better for growing wealth.  And a better hedge against inflation.  But if you already have crap tons of money then bonds are probably better for preserving wealth.  Mostly depends on how much you need to beat cost of living increases by.  If you've already got hundreds of millions then yeah just clip the coupons but even guys like Bill Gross who I'm assuming made billions in bonds, did it by managing other people's money rather than just running up a small stake.  

13 hours ago, Heartofice said:

I can’t remember where I heard it, maybe the Ezra Klein podcast, but in a discussion on inflation someone said that there was a narrative we could have this loose moneteary policy, lots of QE but never saw any inflation. Except we did see inflation, it was just in assets that were good for rich people, like stocks and housing.

Is that a reference to modern monetary theory?  And those sorts of guys called cutting taxes to improve prosperity voodoo economics.  wtf?

On 8/9/2022 at 2:54 PM, Rippounet said:

Agree 200%.

That's what silly beliefs in fantasies like "free markets" get you.

It seems at odds that you agree with the first, that top down management is bad, but disagree with the second, that bottom up decision making is good economics wise.   

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17 hours ago, DireWolfSpirit said:

So I've been surprised to learn recently that the Bond market is actually larger than the equities market, both domestically and Worldwide I believe.

 

 

15 hours ago, Chataya de Fleury said:

Yes, equities markets are the tip of an iceberg. The bond market is the iceberg.

Most consumer debt (credit cards, car loans, student loans) gets bundled up into securitized bonds and sold.

That needs some context.  Traditionally they were similar in size.  But then bond market has approximately tripled since the GFC and much of that has been absorbed by newly printed money by central banks, not by actual investors.  And during that period, more and more companies have delisted (moved from public listed equity to private equity), which shrinks the apparent size of the stock market, especially since more and more start-up companies stayed private rather than going public via IPO, even when they were valued at more than $1bn.  Only publicly traded stocks are counted “in the stock market”.

But yes, the bond market is huge.  All of the govt’s enormous fiscal debt is in bonds, most US mortgage lending gets converted into bonds, most student loans and auto loans too, and corporations massively expanded their debt issuance to finance stock buybacks (as they were incentivized by the Fed).  All those bonds are mostly purchased by central banks (Quantitative Easing), commercial banks, insurance companies, pension plans and money market funds.  Such large institutional investors mostly required to hold bonds creates a large captive market for them, so it keeps the bond market huge.

Outside of public markets, private equity and private credit (usually mid market 5yr direct loans by non-banks) have expanded a lot over the past decade, but neither are counted in the measurement of the stock market and bond market.

Also, at the global level, the Chinese stock and bond markets have grown A LOT over he past ten years too.  Those are now the second largest after the US.

 

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Wrt the OP:

I have 3 main Investments:

1. My own practice of which I hope to sell 50% next year, the other 50% when I retire, the liquidity from the first 50% goes in parts into paying off the rest of the mortgage for

2. our house, including 6,5 acres of land of which 4 acres are unser lease to a local farmer (I need to renegotiate this year, but he seems not very interested in a discount for organic farming, so I'll just take a surcharge for conventional farming).

3. regular monthly savings as well as surplus liquidity that isn't needed for the emergency fund or paying off debt goes into a portfolio of different ETFs:

- Indices are FTSE All-World and MSCI ACWI (75%)

- MSCI World Small Caps and MSCI EM IMI to spread a bit more into small caps and EM (10%)

- 3 different Dividend ETFs (USA, Europe, Asia), mainly for tax purposes and to counter the overweight of Tech titles in the "world Indices" (15%)

No Crypto as long as there's no convincing use case besides organized crime.

Edited by Alarich II
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On 8/11/2022 at 4:44 AM, mcbigski said:

It seems at odds that you agree with the first, that top down management is bad, but disagree with the second, that bottom up decision making is good economics wise.   

Why would you think that "free markets" mean "bottom up decision making" ?
I know the free market ideology likes to pretend that the market is a magic calculator in which buyers and sellers have more or less equal power, but I assume all grown-ups are aware that real life doesn't quite work that way.
Funnily enough, we do seem to agree on the "problem" to some extent. I just don't get why you'd preach about the "free market" ; that's a bit as if I was fighting for marxism-leninism: rather anachronistic at this point.

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2 hours ago, Rippounet said:

Why would you think that "free markets" mean "bottom up decision making" ?
I know the free market ideology likes to pretend that the market is a magic calculator in which buyers and sellers have more or less equal power, but I assume all grown-ups are aware that real life doesn't quite work that way.
Funnily enough, we do seem to agree on the "problem" to some extent. I just don't get why you'd preach about the "free market" ; that's a bit as if I was fighting for marxism-leninism: rather anachronistic at this point.

Has no one here read The Business by Iain Banks? I always thought he postulated a rather interesting model of a free market. I mean the Firm did own the Roman Empire for a day or so. Larry of the Lake, you were reading Banks. His non SF stuff is fun too.

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2 hours ago, maarsen said:

Has no one here read The Business by Iain Banks? I always thought he postulated a rather interesting model of a free market. I mean the Firm did own the Roman Empire for a day or so. Larry of the Lake, you were reading Banks. His non SF stuff is fun too.

Love The Business!  And quick fun read too!

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