All about Investments!

[Wade1865]

20 hours ago, Jeor said:

Seems everyone was expecting good news on inflation and got disappointed.

Jeor -- hope is good! I'm relying on reality, and I hope (hahaha) what's being reported is the true-truth, not concealed by politics. The USG and Fed are walking a fine line between hope on the left, reality on the right, and collapse below. It shouldn't be surprising inflation is still high and will continue to be, albeit on a steady decline. And given its (unsurprisingly, imo) persistence, the Fed could raise the interest rate by 1% during their next relevant meeting. Much volatile, such interestings!

 

US Inflation Rates.

2022 (8.3% avg)

SEP 8.0 [+/- 0.1; my anticipation]

AUG 8.3

JUL 8.5

JUN 9.1

MAY 8.6

APR 8.3

MAR 8.5

FEB 7.9

JAN 7.5

2021 (4.7% avg)

DEC 7.0

NOV 6.8

OCT 6.2

SEP 5.4

AUG 5.3

JUL 5.4

JUN 5.4

MAY 5.0

APR 4.2

MAR 2.6 [Covid-19]

FEB 1.7

JAN 1.4

[Wade1865]

On 8/29/2022 at 7:40 PM, Wade1865 said:

T is down 6%; XOM, up 72%; KHC, up 6%; and WBD (a T spinoff I kept out of curiosity), down 54%. If it weren't for big oil and the war in Ukraine, I might be toward the bottom, or even underwater.

WIN / LOSS PORN

 

TOTAL. I'll keep this update as ratios instead of dollars, but I think people find these fascinating including me. Thanks to my oil & gas holdings, I'm still down -1%. Without XOM, I'd probably be down -15% or more. And I'm anticipating -25% across the board before we see growth again. Much excitement in risk and danger -- absolutely love the emotions I'm feeling, what I live for!!

T. Dropped further, now down to -11%. Since my first purchase (this decade), I doubled down, then doubled down again. And I'm considering another round of doubling sometime in the next month or so. The dividends are higher, now at $1.60 USD / share, and the share price is less than $17, which could go lower as the stock market has taken a substantial hit the past 2 days. Moreover, when the Fed increases the interest rate, I expect more value destruction here and everywhere else.

XOM. Dropped to +67%. Thus far, my biggest gain thanks to the war in Ukraine and corresponding deglobalization. I may sell this off sooner than planned given the worsening recession. Although there's likely to be gains in the near future, I'm finding it hard to believe I'll reach my unlikely intention of 100% profits.

KHC. Droppped from a positive, and is now at -3%. Meh, irrelevant; will hold for dividends and future growth as the economy is restored over the next year or two.

WBD. Dropped to -56%; kept as an experiment, though I hadn't actively purchased it. When you have skin in the game, it's surprising how much more education is to be gained as opposed to winning conditions.

JPM. Preparing to move into financials, but no clue yet. JPM strikes me an interesting. 0%.

Edited September 14, 2022 by Wade1865
posted too soon

[Wade1865]

To clarify -- -25% across the board, or worse. By the time this is over, I'll really be a hobo.

[Jeor]

Volatility is opportunity, if people have the stomach for it. My own particular stocks have come off the boil a bit - I had a good run in the past 2 years, but I think I need to rotate a few and refresh my portfolio. My investments are in the ASX so most probably won't know the companies, I'll mainly talk sectors. In YTD 2022 I'm almost exactly even, which I guess is an okay result considering the ASX200 (the benchmark I measure my performance against) is very mildly down YTD.

Winners: My energy stock is up a bit, but has gone sideways for most of YTD 2022. It had a good run last year (+50%) so I think most of the gains have been made, and I may trim them a bit. My banking stock is mildly up, that's a long-term hold as I'm not too fussed about getting big capital growth so long as they keep paying a nice dividend, which they are.

Flat: My various mining stocks, which are a big sector in the ASX, are flat altogether. 

Losers: My telco stock is slightly in the hole for YTD 2022. They were my longest and biggest holding and are sitting at +40% over two years, so it may be time to trim that one too as I've probably squeezed the most out of it that I can. My Vanguard Global ETF (VGS) has followed the US markets, has yo-yo'ed but overall down 15% YTD.

I still have a high cash balance (25%), and in current conditions am likely to want to retain a 20% cash balance in my investing portion of my money. But if I trim the energy and telco, I'll have some funds to play with and make a buy somewhere. I'm not sure what I'll put it into yet, but I'm staying away from tech, discretionary consumer. A large-cap gold/copper miner on my watchlist is looking quite tantalising, having dropped 50% since I started looking at them. The thesis being that (1) they're at good book value, (2) they've spent most of their capex and should be getting the returns in the next few years, (3) gold is falling but may rebound with geopolitical uncertainty and currency devaluations, and (4) copper is needed for EV electrification and usually follows an economic recovery. But I'm playing the waiting game as gold may fall further if interest rates continue to rise at a fast clip and in any case, I'd rather not try and pick the bottom, I'll try and snap them up once they start an uptrend.

Edited September 15, 2022 by Jeor

[Wade1865]

Jeor -- thank you, great update! I haven't studied the science / fundamentals as much as you have, so very useful.

55 minutes ago, Jeor said:

Volatility is opportunity, if people have the stomach for it.

I love seeing these observations, a great reminder how quickly conditions can turn into disaster if one reacts overly emotional. Worse, if one doesn't know how to invest, and then reacts emotionally. I think we'll see substantial volatilty through the end of this decade, so there's good times ahead for anyone who holds cash ready to deploy.

Johns Hopkins made a study of the brain-gut connection, and it confirms (to me) that there's advantage in relying not just on one's brain (centreal nervous system) but also the gut (enteric nervous system). Although reason and thought is best handled within the brain, there's high-value messaging originating in the gut that can facilitate one's efforts (financial, health, et al.).

 

 

 

[Wade1865]

RAIL STRIKE -- TRANS, RETAIL, ENERGY, TRAVEL

Interesting situation on potential us rail strikes, though i'm not sure if it'll turn into a shutdown. If it does, there'll be significant supply-chain disruption and delays that affect water, energy, transportation, food, travel, et al. We should see a decision by the weekend.

Strike 1!

Strike 2!

Strike 3!

Edited September 15, 2022 by Wade1865

[Wade1865]

RAIL STRIKE -- AVERTED

Looks like a good deal. Overall, a win for Uncle Joe and labor. Anything else would have caused significant hardships for the country, though I wonder how much of the costs will be passed on to the consumer.

Services are, or will be, restored. Pending union ratification:

• 24% wage increases over the next 5 years (unions wanted 31%)
• 14.1% immediate wage increase
• 5 annual bonuses of $1000 USD
• $122,000, average annual employee compensation (including healthcare and employer retirement contributions)

• No change to health insurance copays / deductibles
• Limited change to paid sick leave

[Jeor]

Well the June lows are being tested and the market is giving every indication that they'll crash through substantially. I don't think this is a "buy the dip" situation yet, but I do think that will come earlier than people are expecting. Lots of things to potentially spook markets at this time:

• Ukraine/Russia war, potentially nuclear developments
• UK fiscal policy meltdown and possible currency crisis
• Coordinated interest rate rises across the globe
• Inflation that might still not behave

I'm itching to put a little more into equities but telling myself to wait a bit longer.

[Chataya de Fleury]

I should not have looked at my portfolio today.

 

Uuuuugh.

[Wade1865]

On 9/14/2022 at 5:50 PM, Wade1865 said:

WIN / LOSS PORN...

TOTAL. Worse. Down, from -1% to -9%. Don't worry guys, everything's fine.

 

T. Worse. Down; -11% to -17%.

XOM. Worse. Down; +67% to +47%.

KHC. Worse. Down; -3% to -9%.

WBD. Worse. Down; -56% to -61%.

JPM. Same. Haven't jumped in yet, need to see more blood and panic. 0%.

[Wade1865]

9 hours ago, Jeor said:

Well the June lows are being tested and the market is giving every indication that they'll crash through substantially. I don't think this is a "buy the dip" situation yet, but I do think that will come earlier than people are expecting...

Jeor -- I'd also highlight the PRC's challenges, including their 1) real estate crisis, 2) reduced growth forecast, 3) reconsidered belt and road program, 4) reshored businesses, and 5) security vulnerabilities. Notably, many nearby states will see higher growth!

This leads me to believe the world might see a more substantial crash. In other words, the situation looks great, but I think it'll look even greater. On the other hand, I suspect it'll take much longer to recover from wherever we bottom out. Kinda like a hangover (i.e., the more I drink, the longer it takes for me to feel better again).

Edited September 28, 2022 by Wade1865

[Kalnestk Oblast]

Fucking lol. Apparently discovery was not going to go ideally for Elon Musk. This is probably an 8 on the fuck around and find out scale. 

 

 

[DireWolfSpirit]

How much of a premium will the $54.20 bid be for Elon?

Quick check showing Twitter trading at $47.93 currently.

I guess thats roughly 13%.

Edited October 4, 2022 by DireWolfSpirit

[Paxter]

$47 is very flattering. The stock opened at like $43 today. Elon’s premium definitely higher than 13.

Market wise, we have seen a hell of a rip on the back of the BoE backflip and some slightly weaker economic data. Probably will get a nice bounce from here, maybe until the mid-terms. Then reverse as inflation stays sticky.

Edited October 4, 2022 by Paxter

[Jeor]

Yes, I think in reality the premium for Twitter is more than that. Elon's bids have been the only thing supporting the stock price in the past however many months and the price has been held hostage at his whims. Even when the share price declined, it was due to people assuming the move wouldn't go through.

These past couple of days are seeing a major bounce in stocks but I think many investors will think twice after being suckered into the last bounce. I'm still thinking the China property crisis and economic slowdown haven't really been factored into a lot of things. Even though Truss/Kwarteng have taken out the top rate tax cut, it was only a small portion of the deficit (though a very visible one) and there will still be concerns about a large UK deficit and the BoE's potential withdrawal of bond buying support in the next couple of weeks.

[Paxter]

2 hours ago, Jeor said:

These past couple of days are seeing a major bounce in stocks but I think many investors will think twice after being suckered into the last bounce.

There are plenty of bulls still out there who think the Fed et. al. can engineer a “soft landing” or will simply tolerate high inflation to preserve market stability. So these bear market rallies will continue. But ultimately I am still predicting some sort of recession, which will take prices lower than they are now over the next 12 months. 

The only saviour for the bulls is if somehow the inflation beast is rapidly tamed. But otherwise, cash is not trash.

[Wade1865]

26 minutes ago, Paxter said:

There are plenty of bulls still out there who think the Fed et. al. can engineer a “soft landing” or will simply tolerate high inflation to preserve market stability. So these bear market rallies will continue. But ultimately I am still predicting some sort of recession, which will take prices lower than they are now over the next 12 months. 

The only saviour for the bulls is if somehow the inflation beast is rapidly tamed. But otherwise, cash is not trash.

Paxter -- we're in recession now (in spite of what the NBER refuses to acknowledge), and I'd be shocked if the next relevant update confirms we've climbed out of it. August job openings last month dropped 10% (or 1.1 million) from July, well below what was estimated. Moreover, average annual (adjusted) earnings have declined by nearly 3% while tech is freezing new hires. We'll see at least a moderate landing at best, most likely something worse.

Within the past half year I've been unloading real estate holdings and moving into stock equities. It's astonishing how many wealth-building opportunities I've seen in my life, but this event will probably be the last major one I'll experience. Of course I can't time the bottom, so I'm buying at various declines; but will mass (possibly with some margin funds???) when the situation looks desperate.

[Paxter]

Yeahhhh…I’m in the camp of finding it hard to call a recession with a labour market this tight. I know that technically the definition has been met, but I’m talking something with some serious bite on both Main and Wall St. And that’s what we will probably see next year across the developed economies.

So far, there is no recession priced in because the market can’t agree on its extent and duration (fair enough). All we’ve seen is multiple compression as future earnings are discounted at a higher rate. And of course some silly speculative stocks and coins come crashing to earth. 

Edited October 4, 2022 by Paxter

[DireWolfSpirit]

On 10/4/2022 at 1:37 PM, Paxter said:

$47 is very flattering. The stock opened at like $43 today. Elon’s premium definitely higher than 13.

Twitter Inc

NYSE: TWTR

 

Follow

 

 

 

 

 

51.65 USD −0.35 (0.67%)today

Oct 5, 2:50 PM EDT • Disclaimer

1D

5D

1M

6M

YTD

More

 

 

 

505152Prev
close
52.00

 

 

 

[Wade1865]

Given its prominent role in global politics and culture, owning Twitter is one hell of a tool for a private citizen, particularly in this case. And even with some profitability thus far, Elon will most likely make it more so, I'm confident.

When does the God Emperor get reinstated