Who will be Daenerys' allies and enemies on Westeros ?

[chrisdaw]

Aegon's camp will hold majority power in Westeros by the time Dany arrives, and hostilities probably won't begin until sometime after Dany has been in Westeros. They will be between Aegon's and Dany's camp.

A comprehensive look at the first Dance would probably provide a good outline of where the divisions will split but I've never gotten into all the minor house details. And the minor houses are going to factor, the war isn't going to split straight down major house lines, that's very foreshadowed by the way GRRM frames the first Dance. 

It's a point that the realm is going to fracture deeply and unnecessarily, neighbours and families are going to become bitter enemies, and all because Dany won't let Aegon rule.

The whole north probably won't be a factor. Vale will sit it out.

Dorne for Aegon. Euron's Ironborn for Dany. Everything else mixed on minor house lines.

Dany will ride Drogon. Aegon will ride Rhaegar. Tyrion will ride Viserion and he will go all in with no-one until there is a clear winner (Dany) and he will then rush to their side acting like he'd always been there.

[WhatAnArtist!]

7 hours ago, BlackLightning said:

I actually don't think Arianne is an idiot. I think she's one of the craftier characters in the story. 

I don't see any evidence for this whatsoever. Almost every single thing she's assumed has been totally wrong, and almost everything she's tried to do has been a total failure. Her having misinformation is irrelevant - if she was as crafty as you say, she'd have suspected it was misinformation and done more investigation first.

7 hours ago, BlackLightning said:

Remember, she came to the same conclusion about using Myrcella that Tyrion did. And Tyrion is far from being an idiot. Had Tyrion gone to Dorne like he wanted/expected, they would've likely collaborated and, dare I say, been a lot more successful than Arianne alone.

Tyrion is not right about everything. His "plan" to start a rebellion to make Myrcella queen - or even just to see the rest of his family be wiped out - would have been a total failure for the reasons that Doran told Arianne - Dorne has no allies, and is the least populous region in Westeros. How exactly would Dorne beat the combined might of the Westerlands, the Reach, and the Crownlands? Because you can bet that the Tyrells would absolutely be fully invested in beating the Dornish; they'd make it their top priority. The best that Tyrion and Arianne could hope for would be to proclaim Dorne an independent kingdom with Myrcella as their queen, and defend their home territory. They could probably achieve this, based on Dorne's excellent natural defenses. But they sure as hell wouldn't be able to make any offensives, much less take the Iron Throne. They'd become like the North during Robb's reign: stuck in a permanent state of siege.

[SeanF]

1 hour ago, WhatAnArtist! said:

I don't see any evidence for this whatsoever. Almost every single thing she's assumed has been totally wrong, and almost everything she's tried to do has been a total failure. Her having misinformation is irrelevant - if she was as crafty as you say, she'd have suspected it was misinformation and done more investigation first.

Tyrion is not right about everything. His "plan" to start a rebellion to make Myrcella queen - or even just to see the rest of his family be wiped out - would have been a total failure for the reasons that Doran told Arianne - Dorne has no allies, and is the least populous region in Westeros. How exactly would Dorne beat the combined might of the Westerlands, the Reach, and the Crownlands? Because you can bet that the Tyrells would absolutely be fully invested in beating the Dornish; they'd make it their top priority. The best that Tyrion and Arianne could hope for would be to proclaim Dorne an independent kingdom with Myrcella as their queen, and defend their home territory. They could probably achieve this, based on Dorne's excellent natural defenses. But they sure as hell wouldn't be able to make any offensives, much less take the Iron Throne. They'd become like the North during Robb's reign: stuck in a permanent state of siege.

Arianne’s plan is to use Myrcella’s claim, in order to overthrow her father and brother in a coup, since she thinks (not without reason) she has been disinherited.  She’s not doing it for Myrcella.  Myrcella’s rule would have been nominal.

I think Arianne would have been quite happy with Dorne being de facto, an independent state.

[BlackLightning]

8 hours ago, WhatAnArtist! said:

Dorne has no allies, and is the least populous region in Westeros.

This is a major plothole and worldbuilding flaw to me.

In the medieval era, nations and societies that lived in Mediterranean and arid climates had higher populations than places such as Scandinavia, France, England, etc.

How can the North and the Iron Islands both have a larger population than Dorne? It doesn't make any sense. As a matter of what, why isn't Sunspear a city that rivals Lannisport or Gulltown if not Oldtown or King's Landing? How can House Martell be as rich and prestigious (so much so that they have a good reputation and a strong social network across the Narrow Sea in the Free Cities) as they are if they aren't able to throw as much as weight as around as the Arryns and the Lannisters? And a lot of that weight has to do with the people they command. The Martells have a regular castle seat and a pleasure palace: they are rich. How with such a small population?

 

[WhatAnArtist!]

16 minutes ago, BlackLightning said:

In the medieval era, nations and societies that lived in Mediterranean and arid climates had higher populations than places such as Scandinavia, France, England, etc.

Parts of Dorne are Mediterranean-esque in climate and terrain, yes, but large parts of it are not. A lot of it is either extremely mountainous or pure desert, like.... Arabia type desert. Neither of those types of land can sustain large populations. The land around the Greenblood are quite fertile, just like the land around the Nile, but that makes up only a relatively small part of the country. At least the North has vast stretches of farmland and flat, arable ground. Dorne doesn't. But I agree that if Martin meant that even the Iron Islands are more populous than Dorne, it's absurd. 

[Loose Bolt]

12 minutes ago, BlackLightning said:

This is a major plothole and worldbuilding flaw to me.

In the medieval era, nations and societies that lived in Mediterranean and arid climates had higher populations than places such as Scandinavia, France, England, etc.

How can the North and the Iron Islands both have a larger population than Dorne? It doesn't make any sense. As a matter of what, why isn't Sunspear a city that rivals Lannisport or Gulltown if not Oldtown or King's Landing? How can House Martell be as rich and prestigious (so much so that they have a good reputation and a strong social network across the Narrow Sea in the Free Cities) as they are if they aren't able to throw as much as weight as around as the Arryns and the Lannisters? And a lot of that weight has to do with the people they command. The Martells have a regular castle seat and a pleasure palace: they are rich. How with such a small population?

 

The Children called Dorne as Empty Land so that kingdom was and almost certainly still is less fertile than most other kingdoms of Westeros. Besides we do not really know how rich Martells are compared to other VIPs.

[Terrorthatflapsinthenight9]

12 minutes ago, WhatAnArtist! said:

Parts of Dorne are Mediterranean-esque in climate and terrain, yes, but large parts of it are not. A lot of it is either extremely mountainous or pure desert, like.... Arabia type desert. Neither of those types of land can sustain large populations. The land around the Greenblood are quite fertile, just like the land around the Nile, but that makes up only a relatively small part of the country. At least the North has vast stretches of farmland and flat, arable ground. Dorne doesn't. But I agree that if Martin meant that even the Iron Islands are more populous than Dorne, it's absurd. 

I doubt that Doran really included the Iron Islands in his declaration to Ariannd to be honnest, it may just show his and most of Westeros' disdain for the Ironborn to not include them among the kingdoms of Westeros. 

Even when saying that Dorne forces are in truth of 25 000 soldiers, it's still above what the Iron Islands can muster, which is most likely to be near 20 000 soldiers at best.

[norwaywolf123]

On 11/3/2021 at 9:04 PM, Terrorthatflapsinthenight9 said:

Hello everyone this is my first topic on this forum, so I hope that the result won't be too bad. And for this first topic I had to pick a big subject about one or several of the main characters of ASOIAF, and as such decided to talk about who will be Daenerys Targaryen's allies once she finally arrives on Westeros, and who will be her foes.

So I ask the question: Among the many characters present in the Seven Kingdoms, who are you certain that they will be allies or friends of Daenerys, or at least won't oppose her during her quest to conquer the Iron Throne ? And who do you think for sure will oppose her sooner or later in the game of thrones ? 

I am not including the obvious ones (Cersei, the Others and the Wights, possibly Aegon). 

By the time Daenerys arrives in Westeros, the faction backing fAegon Targaryen/Blackfyre is going to dominate southern Westeros, outside the Vale. The Vale whether they support fAegon or not are going to be more autonomous. House Lannister of the Westerlands are either going to be on the brink, or have become fully subdued by fAegon. If House Lannister has not yet been fully subdued, then they would be possible allies of Daenerys, but i doubt that such an alliance will be at the top of Daenerys mind. Daenerys will probably be too distracted to think about the possibility. Both Jaime and Cersei, assuming that Jaime is not killed by Lady Stoneheart, are going to die during Daenerys conquest of King's Landing, where they are prisoners of fAegon. Tyrion may be directly responisble for their deaths if he becomes a dragon rider. When Tyrion sees their dead bodies he is probably going to undergo a personal crisis.

On 11/4/2021 at 5:36 PM, Lord Lannister said:

I don't doubt that either. I think Dany will not be received by Westeros positively. She'll be a foreign invader, her Dothraki will have a field day pillaging and raping. She'll be brutally destroying castles and cities with her dragons. Not to mention she'll get the kinslayer label when she does in (f)Aegon regardless of if he's real or not.

Assuming the fAegon is a Blackfyre, which i believe, he would still be a distant relation hers.

On 11/4/2021 at 7:51 AM, Daenerysthegreat said:

I think you mean IF she arrives in westeros. 

If she arrives in westeros she will have her nephew aegon as her ally. Most of the crownlands will support them. The riverlands still have targaryen loyalists. Due to lannister havoc in the region most will not back lannisters, same with starks. So they have the riverlands as well. They may have half of the reach.

If aegon turns against her she can get cersei as her ally(if aegon kills tommen and myrcella) . She will have the westerlands and the other half of the reach as her allies. I think so the velaryons will also support her. Quentyn's foster father Lord Yronwood may also back her, thanks to gerris drinkwater and Archibald Yronwood. This will place half of dorne's army in her hands. 

Assuming that Myrcella, Tommen, Cersei and Jaime have died, then i think that the remaining Lannisters are going to retreat literally and figuratively back to the Westerlands. Besides Cersei who is focused on the Ironthrone, most Lannisters focus primarily on the Westerlands.

On 11/4/2021 at 4:19 PM, Daenerysthegreat said:

Aegon and dany are on one side. They're not opposing each other

Ideally, however i think this great opportunity for a strong alliance between the two is unfortuantly going to be missed, Westeros will suffer because of it.

[norwaywolf123]

On 11/4/2021 at 9:52 AM, Loose Bolt said:

Main problem in that is Jaime. After all he murdered Dany's father so Dany will want to execute him. So unless Cersei really hates J she will not support Dany.

When Daenerys arrives in Westeros, Jaime is not going to be at the top of her mind. Not saying that Daenerys will be friendly towards Jaime, but she won't throw away an alliance because of him. Anyway the Lannisters are probably going be defeated by the time she comes to Westeros.

[Lord Lannister]

3 minutes ago, norwaywolf123 said:

Assuming the fAegon is a Blackfyre, which i believe, he would still be a distant relation hers.

The facts don't matter, only what people believe. That's why Joffrey and Tommen "Baratheon" sit the Iron Throne. Killing (f)Aegon is going to be a bad look for Daenerys, hence why I think it's likely she'll be hit with the kinslayer label.

[Tywin's Wallet]

If Aegon burns, thank Arianne. She's impulsive, talks, acts and/or makes up her mind w/o knowing all the facts. Type of girl that will use her name, her looks to wrap this or that person around her fingers to get what she wants, but not specially smart.