Covid-19 #41: Collateral Damage

[Luzifer's right hand]

The USA did not even give vaccines to Canada until the uptake inside the country slowed down. At least Russia, China and the EU exported some.

[DireWolfSpirit]

Got my Pfizer Booster in left and seasonal flu shot in right arm Saturday.  By Saturday Eve I was quite drowzy, I slept deeply till noon. Very minor soreness and drowsiness lingering still.

My system knows something was introduced but it hasn't been out right misery or any unbearable pains, just able to sleep it off pretty much.

One thing that I found pleasing at the innoculation site was the very robust community response of young families getting their kids vaxxed. It seemed like an endless parade of them.

Those with any involvement with the schools are getting first hand views of the dangers of the spread right now.

And last but not least and as mentioned previously, so relieved to have got this done in time for Thanksgiving.

[Luzifer's right hand]

Now our health care minister mentioned that he wants an evening/night curfew for everyone again.

I suspect that we will get a general lockdown even sooner than I anticipated.

[Zorral]

2 hours ago, DireWolfSpirit said:

One thing that I found pleasing at the innoculation site was the very robust community response of young families getting their kids vaxxed. It seemed like an endless parade of them.

The site where B and I went had no kids -- it was a school day.  But they have a separate entrance and set-up for them.  Plus they can get $100 gift cards . . . .  Here we've started seeing schools closing due to kids being positive.  The problem is parents.  I have a feeling that a lot of NYC parents who want and are willing for their kids to be vaccinated are taking them to their pediatricians not to a City walk up site -- though it provides appointments for first and second jabs and for kids.  Or maybe to their pharmacies -- again, Pfizer is available everywhere from everyone from doctors to pharmacies.  It's a lot more difficult to get Moderna.

 

[Zorral]

2 hours ago, Luzifer's right hand said:

The USA did not even give vaccines to Canada until the uptake inside the country slowed down. At least Russia, China and the EU exported some.

I suspect things would have been rather different if there had been Dem in the White House BEFORE -- and BEFORE the pandemic.  The systems that they deliberately smashed are innumberable.

[Zorral]

 

Elsewhere, someone asks, "How many of them are there, really?" meaning the violent militant anti-vaxers.

https://www.lawyersgunsmoneyblog.com/2021/11/we-outnumber-them

 

[Padraig]

Its the funny thing with science.  You always get more info. A few days ago I said that recent studies have consistently said that infection gives higher immunity than vaccine.  The CDC would like a word...

Quote

Among COVID-19–like illness hospitalizations among adults aged ≥18 years whose previous infection or vaccination occurred 90–179 days earlier, the adjusted odds of laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 among unvaccinated adults with previous SARS-CoV-2 infection were 5.49-fold higher than the odds among fully vaccinated recipients of an mRNA COVID-19 vaccine who had no previous documented infection (95% confidence interval = 2.75–10.99).

The CDC does discuss why these results are different.

Quote

This variation is possibly related to differences in the outcome of interest and restrictions on the timing of vaccination. The Israeli cohort study assessed any positive SARS-CoV-2 test result, whereas this study examined laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 among hospitalized patients. The Israeli cohort study also only examined vaccinations that had occurred 6 months earlier, so the benefit of more recent vaccination was not examined. 

https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/70/wr/mm7044e1.htm

So yes, mea culpa.  In the 3 to 6 month period, vaccination does seem to be significantly better at preventing hospitalisation (it didn't look at infection).  After 6 months, it is less clear (the CDC paper didn't look at this).

Vaccination has consistently shown it is very good at preventing hospitalisation (at least for the first 6-8 months), so maybe I shouldn't be too surprised.

3 hours ago, Paxter said:

The USA did not hold off on the boosters at all!!!! Threw itself into it with scant regard for the international situation IMO.

ETA: Whoops sorry you did say “most countries”. I’m an angry person today obviously.

Its a frustrating topic!  I wonder how many people are dying of COVID in some countries, and we just don't know.  Its just another disease there.

Anyhow, even in the US it is supposed to be somewhat restrictive.  But I wonder can anyone get a booster if they wanted it?  If you are age 18+, you are supposed to live in long-term care settings, have an underlying medical conditions or live or work in high-risk settings.

[Zorral]

@Padraig  -- Knew you'd find those stories, probably sooner than later, and you did.  

[Paxter]

36 minutes ago, Padraig said:

Its a frustrating topic!  I wonder how many people are dying of COVID in some countries, and we just don't know.  Its just another disease there.

The excess mortality studies provide some clue. Take Egypt as an example of a relatively unvaccinated country. Officially the death count is 16k, but the excess mortality data points to a true death toll of 205k. That is a massive difference and a massive death toll.

[Mlle. Zabzie]

2 hours ago, Zorral said:

The site where B and I went had no kids -- it was a school day.  But they have a separate entrance and set-up for them.  Plus they can get $100 gift cards . . . .  Here we've started seeing schools closing due to kids being positive.  The problem is parents.  I have a feeling that a lot of NYC parents who want and are willing for their kids to be vaccinated are taking them to their pediatricians not to a City walk up site -- though it provides appointments for first and second jabs and for kids.  Or maybe to their pharmacies -- again, Pfizer is available everywhere from everyone from doctors to pharmacies.  It's a lot more difficult to get Moderna.

 

We went to our pediatrician’s office (first dose was yesterday!). They made it very easy.  Both schools (private) are requiring vaccination.  One is requiring both doses for 5-11 before returning from winter break.  The other is giving 5-11 kids until 1/31.  (In both cases, 12+ year olds must be vaccinated).  Both schools have weekly testing (vaxed and unvaxed), quarantine protocols and mask mandates (vaxed and unvaxed).  One school has a “test to stay” protocol that will go fully live after winter break (when all students 5+ required to be vaxed).  There have been positive cases, including breakthrough cases in both schools.  In neither school has there been a spread based on school contact (they know this because of the robust protocols described above).  In neither school, touch wood, no one has gotten seriously ill. It is very expensive and very effective.  But it is proving that vaccination + masks are incredibly, incredibly effective.  This could be replicated on a broader scale - if people uptake vaccines (sigh).  In my little bubble, barring new adverse developments, I would support no masks next school year (or even after spring break).  Covid is not going away.  

[Zorral]

As you say: very expensive and very effective!  If a majority of kids in the right age brackets could get even a single dose by Thanksgiving, that would be so helpful.  I was thinking about you as one of 'our' parents in NYC, and how much you looked forward to your children getting vaccinations.  We also need to hear more the kids speaking themselves about how relieved they are to be vaxxed.  I've heard some children on WNYC talking about it.  They are so informed, articulate and intelligent. 

Unlike a significant portion of so-called adults in this country.  Remember when those sorts were always invoking 'the children' when They wanted to block a public good or take something down?  And now They're taking down the children to get Their way.

I won't see our state or city's or my neighborhood's numbers until tomorrow for this past week, but I'll be looking for them.

[Mlle. Zabzie]

1 hour ago, Zorral said:

As you say: very expensive and very effective!  If a majority of kids in the right age brackets could get even a single dose by Thanksgiving, that would be so helpful.  I was thinking about you as one of 'our' parents in NYC, and how much you looked forward to your children getting vaccinations.  We also need to hear more the kids speaking themselves about how relieved they are to be vaxxed.  I've heard some children on WNYC talking about it.  They are so informed, articulate and intelligent. 

Unlike a significant portion of so-called adults in this country.  Remember when those sorts were always invoking 'the children' when They wanted to block a public good or take something down?  And now They're taking down the children to get Their way.

I won't see our state or city's or my neighborhood's numbers until tomorrow for this past week, but I'll be looking for them.

My kids were so excited.  We had a “happy vaccine day” party (which basically meant they got double video game time, and they once again bemoaned their mother’s uselessness with a controller, but whatever).  They know that they aren’t fully vaccinated, and now that we have our second dose appointment they know to the day their actual full vaccination date (whereon another party has been requested, this one with cake.  I am pro cake.  I will have to procure same).  My big issue will be our annual beach trip with my beloved cousin’s jerky husband.  Her step daughter (13) was permitted to choose whether to vaccinate and as of last July had not so chosen…..I have….VIEWS.  (My cousin is vaccinated.  She is amazing.  I don’t like her husband, but I don’t have to be married to him or even see him that often).

[The Anti-Targ]

The bad news is my town now has its first ever official case of COVID-19. The good news is this is only the first ever official case of COVID-19 in my town AND we are 89.2% first jab and 78% double jabbed.

[Zorral]

17 minutes ago, Mlle. Zabzie said:

 I am pro cake.

Why yes, yes, I am also pro cake!    Of course your kids would be smart.  So I suppose your cousin's step daughter is following what her dad advocates.  Poor kid.  Guess it's never too early for a jerkwaddie to spoil a kid's life.

 

[The Anti-Targ]

Personally I am concerned about how pervasive this cake thing is becoming in the community. You have to wonder why the state is promoting cake so much, and they are not talking at all abut the side effects. What are they not telling us. I'm certainly no cakespiracy theorists, but I think there are questions that need to be answered.

[Luzifer's right hand]

Offical infection rate in the small place I live in has reached 2 % over the weekend.

My GP has been called a nazi to his face for being very pro vaccine and for insisting on proper masking in his office so that is no real surprise to anyone that considers the pandemic real.

[Which Tyler]

9 hours ago, Paxter said:

The excess mortality studies provide some clue. Take Egypt as an example of a relatively unvaccinated country. Officially the death count is 16k, but the excess mortality data points to a true death toll of 205k. That is a massive difference and a massive death toll.

Not only is it the hardest figure to... massage, it's the easiest figure to measure (doesn't require comprehensive Covid testing), most consistent across different countries (doesn't matter if it's 28 days or 26 weeks post-infection), and it's also the only (mortality) figure that REALLY matters in this. It's also nice to see the standard deviation as well as the average death rate.

It doesn't matter a jot if someone dies because PersonA contracted Covid, or because PersonB did, meaning that PersonA didn't have an ambulance/doctor get to them in time. They're still a dead person who would be alive were it not for Covid.

[Luzifer's right hand]

19 minutes ago, Which Tyler said:

Not only is it the hardest figure to... massage, it's the easiest figure to measure (doesn't require comprehensive Covid testing), most consistent across different countries (doesn't matter if it's 28 days or 26 weeks post-infection), and it's also the only (mortality) figure that REALLY matters in this. It's also nice to see the standard deviation as well as the average death rate.

It doesn't matter a jot if someone dies because PersonA contracted Covid, or because PersonB did, meaning that PersonA didn't have an ambulance/doctor get to them in time. They're still a dead person who would be alive were it not for Covid.

We have pretty good statistic in Austria and at least in one city they discovered that while covid-19 increased deaths in certain groups significantly risk related deaths among young people plummeted massively during the lockdowns. No risk no fun. Skiing related injuries and deaths were also at an all time low. Suicides dropped too that might be temporary. I guess not harassing the unemployed and other groups systematically and giving them a wee bit more money has some benefits(that is prue fact less speculation on my part). That is all for 2020 though.

[rotting sea cow]

13 hours ago, Luzifer's right hand said:

Now our health care minister mentioned that he wants an evening/night curfew for everyone again.

I suspect that we will get a general lockdown even sooner than I anticipated.

Lockdowns are a shotgun approach. They work because are easy to enforce and drastically reduce the contacts if there is adherence, which I'm unsure it will happen and nevertheless are coming late.

When testing, contact tracing and quarantine exceed your capabilities that is the only measure being left.

Or just pull a Romania and let the virus burn through.

In Germany things are moving fast, homeoffice is coming back, events are being cancelled, Christmas markets are in danger, etc. I guess that a lockdown in some form is coming, but the blunt of the measures will be felt at the schools, which is the only thing that makes my blood boil.

 

[Luzifer's right hand]

14 minutes ago, rotting sea cow said:

Lockdowns are a shotgun approach. They work because are easy to enforce and drastically reduce the contacts if there is adherence, which I'm unsure it will happen and nevertheless are coming late.

When testing, contact tracing and quarantine exceed your capabilities that is the only measure being left.

Or just pull a Romania and let the virus burn through.

In Germany things are moving fast, homeoffice is coming back, events are being cancelled, Christmas markets are in danger, etc. I guess that a lockdown in some form is coming, but the blunt of the measures will be felt at the schools, which is the only thing that makes my blood boil.

 

The ÖVP slowing measures down as much as possible though. The health care minister is trying but the coalition partner is difficult and the regional governments except Vienna are even worse.