Covid-19 #41: Collateral Damage

[The Anti-Targ]

2 hours ago, Padraig said:

There was an article in an Irish newspaper about Shaw a while back.  Behind a paywall but a Canadian newspaper quoted from it.

Shaw was still against vaccination in his 80s (in the 1940s), so he wasn't for changing. But his concerns about vaccination were a bit nuanced.

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/arts/theatre-and-performance/article-shaw-vs-shaw-why-the-theatre-festival-isnt-cancelling-the-anti-vaxxer/

I guess it is fair to be opposed to vaccination as an alternative for action on poverty, housing and sanitation. But it's still dumb to be opposed to vaccination. It should be, yes vaccinate AND directly address poverty, housing and sanitation. Walk and chew gum at the same time. I am suspicious of people masking straight up anti-vax attitudes behind other social concerns. "I'm not anti-vax, I'm pro-freedom" isn't all that much different to "I'm anti-vax BECAUSE I want all the focus to be on poverty, housing and sanitation."

Best that can be said is that he probably wasn't an anti-science nutjob when it came to vaccination. I don't have a great deal of respect for people who say I don't want the govt to focus on this I want them to focus on that. How about I want the govt to focus on both? After all, govt has health departments, housing departments, sanitation departments and social welfare departments, so it can focus on more than one thing at a time.

[DireWolfSpirit]

G.B. Shaw is not with us in this day and age so it's difficult for me to assume he'd be part of the current anti-vaxx community.

His reasoning could have rejected the modern antivaxxers. He may have seen himself as the antipathy of anything a maga follower would support.

Of course we can't say for certain because he's no longer with us, he did have those views against vaccines but as an intellectual I like to envision him as growing out of his mistaken view.

[RhaenysBee]

10 hours ago, Clueless Northman said:

Did none of them lose smell or taste? Because if one lost either, then I'd actually suspect it was a faulty test, a false negative - a rare thing, granted, but not unheard of.

Sister did feel like she lost her sense of taste and smell one night and then she could miraculously smell and taste everything perfectly the next morning, when her test result came in, so I’m inclined to believe it was 100% psychosomatic. 

[Which Tyler]

Given the state of vaccines then and vaccines now, medical research then and medical research now, science as a whole the and science as a whole now...

I don't think anyone can say with any accuracy at all how anyone's views on vaccination would have changed or not has they been born 100 years later.

Medical knowledge has not been static for a century

[Luzifer's right hand]

In Austria the greens, doctors and epidemic experts are pushing for a full lockdown now while the conservative ÖVP is dragging its feet(they said the pandemic is over too often).

There is no majority without the conservatives possible as the far right party FPÖ is against all measures (the party leader is currently in quarantine but no worries his personal physician is treating him with ivermectin and so on).

Hospitals are not just running out of ICU beds but morgue space too.

The place I live in has 92 active cases now (out of 4640). Monday when I was at the doctors office someone came in saying that her husband tested positive at home. You are supposed to call a hotline that informs you where to get a PCR test but that has only been the case for more than a year now and was obviously news that that women. At least she was masked and vaccinated (actually had the appointment for the 3rd shot on the same day).

I'm a pessimistic person but not even I expected shit to hit the fan this extremely and especially that fast. I expected a Christmas/New Year's wave to be honest.

[Paxter]

42 minutes ago, Luzifer's right hand said:

I'm a pessimistic person but not even I expected shit to hit the fan this extremely and especially that fast. I expected a Christmas/New Year's wave to be honest.

Looking at the cases/deaths data so far, Austria’s current wave looks quite similar to Israel’s post-vaccine wave. Higher case loads than previous peaks, but lower deaths due to vaccination (though not a low fatality rate by any means).

The risk for Austria is that with a seasonal effect and an older population, this could deteriorate further. I think further non-vaccine interventions will be needed.

[Luzifer's right hand]

1 hour ago, Paxter said:

Looking at the cases/deaths data so far, Austria’s current wave looks quite similar to Israel’s post-vaccine wave. Higher case loads than previous peaks, but lower deaths due to vaccination (though not a low fatality rate by any means).

The risk for Austria is that with a seasonal effect and an older population, this could deteriorate further. I think further non-vaccine interventions will be needed.

The tourism board has asked for hard lockdown (to save part of the ski season because of travel warnings). They have major pull with the conservatives and last autumn the lockdown happend shortly after they did the same.

Interesting news on why the testing system can't cope anymore. They use pool analysis which works well if there are low infection numbers but right now one company that does it in Salzburg reported that 4 out of 10 sample pools are positive and they can't analyse the reserve samples in time anymore.

 

[Padraig]

6 hours ago, Which Tyler said:

Given the state of vaccines then and vaccines now, medical research then and medical research now, science as a whole the and science as a whole now...

I don't think anyone can say with any accuracy at all how anyone's views on vaccination would have changed or not has they been born 100 years later.

Medical knowledge has not been static for a century

I completely agree with that.  Shaw was proved wrong by history.  And when he died in 1950, I imagine it was very clear he was wrong.  But he was 94 at the time, with views that were firmly established in the 19th century.  I'm not surprised he hadn't adapted.  Although, it is disappointing.

And he was wrong on a number of other medical questions too (to be honest).

But still, vaccines were a new science in the 19th century.  He had a bad experience himself with them and he could see how they were used by the upper classes to keep their workforce in line (Shaw being a socalist).  I'm not an expert on Shaw but the article's point was that there were legitimate questions about vaccines in the 19th century.

Nonetheless, legitimate questions existing in the 19th century in no way reflects on the 21st century (except that the article argued that, partly due to this criticism, science made vaccine's better).  And yes, Shaw's philosophy is a long way from the current shade of anti-vaxxer.

5 hours ago, Luzifer's right hand said:

Hospitals are not just running out of ICU beds but morgue space too.

How does this compare with last winter?  The figures reported on ourworldindata are far better (fatalities is roughly 33% of last winter's peak), although as Paxter said, that is far from trivial, and they are undoubtedly going to go get worse.  That could mean that the figures are wrong or certain regions are hit as badly as last year (because of low vaccination) but other regions are much better?  I was going to quote the ICU figures also on that site but they are from the 7th Nov.  A lot can change in 10 days when it comes to COVID.

[Luzifer's right hand]

37 minutes ago, Padraig said:

 

How does this compare with last winter?  The figures reported on ourworldindata are far better (fatalities is roughly 33% of last winter's peak), although as Paxter said, that is far from trivial, and they are undoubtedly going to go get worse.  That could mean that the figures are wrong or certain regions are hit as badly as last year (because of low vaccination) but other regions are much better?  I was going to quote the ICU figures also on that site but they are from the 7th Nov.  A lot can change in 10 days when it comes to COVID.

Right now that worst news comes mainly from Salzburg and Upper Austria(where I live). Vienna is doing the best but it always had more restrictive rules and far more enforcement of them afaik. There is no indication that we have reached the peak all experts seem to agree. Case number is far higher than last year already. 

https://covid19-dashboard.ages.at/dashboard.html

This site has information in English but has been criticized by doctors because of the free bed numbers(most beds are never free they are just canceling surgeries which require ICU aftercare and sending people home asap after a treatment). 

At least the stuff you hear from doctors and nurses sounds far worse but I think morale is incredible low among health care workers because most feel that this could have been avoided.

We also have a number of severe child cases now and the special ICUs for children are for some reason not included in the count.

ICU numbers still look better than last year but they are catching up quickly. It is also more of a staff problem than a true "bed" problem from what I have read and a lot of staff is burned out. The people I talked about it mentioned leaving the field, going abroad or at least a finding non-hospital job even before this wave and some hospitals have lost significant staff already.

[RhaenysBee]

The thing is completely out of control. 10000+ positive cases and nearly 180 deaths TODAY. In 24 hours. 

Also a friend is ill and will get tested on Saturday. She had covid in the spring and possibly an asymptomatic one last Christmas (though that was never confirmed). She was double vaccinated by June. It’s beyond my brain capacity to fathom how one could possibly catch covid two (possibly) three times within one year. I hope and believe that she’ll test negative.

well. I’ll go on and have a cup of tea and wait for the apocalypse to unfold. 

[The Anti-Targ]

Some small good news. My friend's son was being anti-vax influenced by his father. My friend took her son to the doctor for the doctor to have a chat with the son about vaccination, risks etc etc. The son walked out of the doctor's office with his first jab done.  A good win for science and rationality. Unfortunately the daughter is much more of a non-conformist and continues to refuse vaccination, under the influence of her father. Hopefully she will come around when she faces the reality of not being able to go to the movies (for example) with her friends.

[Zorral]

The drummer in my Austin friend's band just refused and refused to get vaccinated.  He could give no reason for it.  But he just wouldn't.  It was awful, as he's a great drummer and particularly good for the music my friend's band does.  But they brought in someone else, because, especially with indoor gigs happening now, they could not afford to have a non-vaccinated person rehearsing and playing with them.

So.  He's now back in the band.  Got vaccinated.  Why, finally?  Very sheepishly he admitted to my friend that he and his wife are coming to NYC, coming specifically to see their grand-daughter's debut in City Ballet.  They can't get in, or anywhere else in NYC, without vaccination.  So, they did it.

IOW, he had absolutely no reason whatsoever not to be vaccinated. He just wouldn't.  Until there was something he wanted more than he didn't want.  Totally insane.

 

[Which Tyler]

3 minutes ago, Zorral said:

IOW, he had absolutely no reason whatsoever not to be vaccinated. He just wouldn't.  Until there was something he wanted more than he didn't want.  Totally insane.

And a really good example of why mild coercion is a good thing here

[Padraig]

4 hours ago, Luzifer's right hand said:

It is also more of a staff problem than a true "bed" problem from what I have read and a lot of staff is burned out.

That's a very good point.  I imagine that's going to be a common trait in many countries.  Too much pressure for too long.  And no end in sight.

[The Anti-Targ]

2 hours ago, Zorral said:

The drummer in my Austin friend's band just refused and refused to get vaccinated.  He could give no reason for it.  But he just wouldn't.  It was awful, as he's a great drummer and particularly good for the music my friend's band does.  But they brought in someone else, because, especially with indoor gigs happening now, they could not afford to have a non-vaccinated person rehearsing and playing with them.

So.  He's now back in the band.  Got vaccinated.  Why, finally?  Very sheepishly he admitted to my friend that he and his wife are coming to NYC, coming specifically to see their grand-daughter's debut in City Ballet.  They can't get in, or anywhere else in NYC, without vaccination.  So, they did it.

IOW, he had absolutely no reason whatsoever not to be vaccinated. He just wouldn't.  Until there was something he wanted more than he didn't want.  Totally insane.

 

I think when we move to vaxed only entry for most non-essential businesses and services that will drive another surge in vaccination. Some people are probably holding out hope that a lot of businesses will opt for the restrictions that come with allowing entry of unvaxed people. But I don't see businesses choosing to lose customers so to serve what is rapidly becoming a small minority of people, unless that business is owned by a rabid anti-vaxer, of which I am sure there are a few. Along with the govt finally making the AZ vaccine available to anyone on request (was previously limited to only people who for medical reasons can't have the Pfizer one), for those who are scared of mRNA for some reason.

We have 80,000 workers in the health sector (incl admin people), yesterday 1309 people were stood down for failing to get their first vaccination by the previous day. There is hope that the availability of the AZ vaccine will get that number down somewhat and allow many of these people to go back to work. Disappointingly there are some senior hospital doctors among that group. I can understand doctors in GP practices who have one foot in the alternative medicine camp finally making the jump to the other side and rejecting anything mainstream / big pharma. I can't understand senior doctors in the mainstream hospital system refusing the vaccine. Really, they should have been vaxed before the health sector mandate came in, so I don't buy anyone's excuse that they are not getting vaxed simply on the basis that they oppose mandates /  coercion. 

[Clueless Northman]

50 minutes ago, Padraig said:

That's a very good point.  I imagine that's going to be a common trait in many countries.  Too much pressure for too long.  And no end in sight.

ICU staff is already down by 20 to 30% in some parts of Europe, because of burnout and people just sick of this shit. If there's another massive wave, fully caused by dumb-as-fuck selfish idiots, it will be even worse. At this point, I hope some nursing staff begins to publicly lose it, require government to support them better, blame anti-vaxxing movement for the ongoing diaster, call it for what it is: cold-blooded murder, and require governments to act against that kind of anti-social behaviour. Otherwise, next year, Europe will have its global ICU capacities cut down by a third and most people will be unaware or just clueless as to why it happens.

[Wall Flower]

11 minutes ago, The Anti-Targ said:

I think when we move to vaxed only entry for most non-essential businesses and services that will drive another surge in vaccination. Some people are probably holding out hope that a lot of businesses will opt for the restrictions that come with allowing entry of unvaxed people. But I don't see businesses choosing to lose customers so to serve what is rapidly becoming a small minority of people, unless that business is owned by a rabid anti-vaxer, of which I am sure there are a few. Along with the govt finally making the AZ vaccine available to anyone on request (was previously limited to only people who for medical reasons can't have the Pfizer one), for those who are scared of mRNA for some reason.

We have 80,000 workers in the health sector (incl admin people), yesterday 1309 people were stood down for failing to get their first vaccination by the previous day. There is hope that the availability of the AZ vaccine will get that number down somewhat and allow many of these people to go back to work. Disappointingly there are some senior hospital doctors among that group. I can understand doctors in GP practices who have one foot in the alternative medicine camp finally making the jump to the other side and rejecting anything mainstream / big pharma. I can't understand senior doctors in the mainstream hospital system refusing the vaccine. Really, they should have been vaxed before the health sector mandate came in, so I don't buy anyone's excuse that they are not getting vaxed simply on the basis that they oppose mandates /  coercion. 

My sister, who's a nurse in NSW, came back from holidays to find one of her colleagues gone because he refused to be vaccinated. He was an excellent, experienced nurse and a well-respected manager. She didn't get to speak to him before he left so she doesn't know what his issue was but she said that its like he died because no one wants to speak about him. As my sister pointed out, there are already required vaccinations for a number of diseases like flu, HEP-B, etc, so she's really at a loss to understand what makes this vaccination requirement so different for some people.

[The Anti-Targ]

3 minutes ago, Wall Flower said:

My sister, who's a nurse in NSW, came back from holidays to find one of her colleagues gone because he refused to be vaccinated. He was an excellent, experienced nurse and a well-respected manager. She didn't get to speak to him before he left so she doesn't know what his issue was but she said that its like he died because no one wants to speak about him. As my sister pointed out, there are already required vaccinations for a number of diseases like flu, HEP-B, etc, so she's really at a loss to understand what makes this vaccination requirement so different for some people.

I have a friend who is a nurse-manager at an aged care / end of life facility. She had a couple of nurses get stood down for a refusal to get vaxed. Unbelievable! And she was short staffed even before those people had to be stood down.

Personally I think the govt should fill the shortfall created by the vaccine mandate by opening the immigration flood gates for qualified nurses, doctors and trained teachers who are fully vaccinated, with significant signing bonuses, and even bigger signing bonuses those for those with key specialisations, like aged care. Fill the gap with those people, and leave the unvaxed out in the cold. We don't have a big enough gap that it will materially affect the workforce in other countries if we get people from all over the world. Would be good to attract a few NZers back from Aussie though. A lot of these unvaxed think they can stare down the govt over the no jab-no job policy and be able to return to work staying unvaxed. The govt needs to take steps to fill the gaps without caving in.

The school year is almost over, so I think some teachers will make a show of refusing to get vaccinated now, because they refuse to be told what to do, but after having done more "research" over the summer, have decided for themselves and totally not because of the policy, to get vaxed before the school year stars in Feb 2022.

[Wall Flower]

5 hours ago, The Anti-Targ said:

I have a friend who is a nurse-manager at an aged care / end of life facility. She had a couple of nurses get stood down for a refusal to get vaxed. Unbelievable! And she was short staffed even before those people had to be stood down.

Personally I think the govt should fill the shortfall created by the vaccine mandate by opening the immigration flood gates for qualified nurses, doctors and trained teachers who are fully vaccinated, with significant signing bonuses, and even bigger signing bonuses those for those with key specialisations, like aged care. Fill the gap with those people, and leave the unvaxed out in the cold. We don't have a big enough gap that it will materially affect the workforce in other countries if we get people from all over the world. Would be good to attract a few NZers back from Aussie though. A lot of these unvaxed think they can stare down the govt over the no jab-no job policy and be able to return to work staying unvaxed. The govt needs to take steps to fill the gaps without caving in.

The school year is almost over, so I think some teachers will make a show of refusing to get vaccinated now, because they refuse to be told what to do, but after having done more "research" over the summer, have decided for themselves and totally not because of the policy, to get vaxed before the school year stars in Feb 2022.

Yeah, a school principal here in Canberra was stood down because he refused to get vaxxed and was quite vocal about it. Don't know if he'll reconsider.

I just find it particularly shocking when it's a member of the medical profession. Maybe they're in the wrong job anyway if they have so little faith in medicine and science and less courage than this very nervous 62 year old who was shaking like a leaf during the two jabs!

[rotting sea cow]

A very long and detailed article regarding ivermectin

https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/ivermectin-much-more-than-you-wanted

I didn't read it fully, but the takeaway is, it most likely does nothing against COVID infection BUT as it turns out, worm infections are likely a cofounder, because they decrease survival rates of COVID patients and some drugs to treat severe COVID can make those infections worse, which is likely the effect that the few serious studies are seeing.

Overall, interesting