Covid-19 #41: Collateral Damage

[Loge]

14 hours ago, Padraig said:

How does this compare with last winter?  The figures reported on ourworldindata are far better (fatalities is roughly 33% of last winter's peak), although as Paxter said, that is far from trivial, and they are undoubtedly going to go get worse.  That could mean that the figures are wrong or certain regions are hit as badly as last year (because of low vaccination) but other regions are much better?  I was going to quote the ICU figures also on that site but they are from the 7th Nov.  A lot can change in 10 days when it comes to COVID.

I don't know much about Austria but the situation in Germany is actually worse than last year. Case figures are on an all time high, despite 2/3 of the population being vaccinated. The number of deaths isn't anywhere near last winter's high yet, but it's increasing fast and has always lagged the number of infections by a few weeks. That lag is likely to be larger than it was in earlier waves as the patients are younger and spend more time in ICU before their case gets resolved one way or the other. Politicians have been in denial or just ignored the problem since the summer as we had an election campaign and then coalition talks, which are still ongoing. The new coalition had actually announced that they were to let the state of emergency expire next week as their first common piece of legislation. Now they're backpedaling. A big blunder before the government is even formed.  

[RhaenysBee]

I read an article today which discusses than in spite of high vaccination rates, Europe still sees an increase in covid infections and related deaths compared to last year and this worries the WHO. Well, it worries me too, because it kinda shows that it did fuckall to get all those vaccines. 

Also, I booked a booster appointment. 

[williamjm]

2 hours ago, RhaenysBee said:

I read an article today which discusses than in spite of high vaccination rates, Europe still sees an increase in covid infections and related deaths compared to last year and this worries the WHO. Well, it worries me too, because it kinda shows that it did fuckall to get all those vaccines. 

I can understand the frustration that vaccinations haven't solved everything because it's difficult to compare against the alternate reality where there were never any vaccinations. I  remember reading an estimate for England that vaccinations here had prevented something like 130000 deaths up to that point, it will be higher by now. Of course it would be even better if no vaccinated people were dying but that's still a huge achievement. 

[Luzifer's right hand]

The experiment of a lockdown for the unvaccinated is coming to an end in the two most effected states of Austria as they have announced a lockdown for everyone starting next week.

The rest will soon follow I suspect.

I mean keeping stuff open but expecting the anti measure people to follow the rules must have been the most stupid idea since the pandemic kicked off. Our far right police force enforced as little as possible as usual.

[Padraig]

3 hours ago, RhaenysBee said:

I read an article today which discusses than in spite of high vaccination rates, Europe still sees an increase in covid infections and related deaths compared to last year and this worries the WHO. Well, it worries me too, because it kinda shows that it did fuckall to get all those vaccines. 

On the positive side, we have vaccinations.

On the negative side, we have the Delta variant, winter weather, much less restrictions, people being less careful etc.

We are asking a lot from vaccines.  And there is admittedly a waning affect, especially against infection.

So while infections are way up because of those negatives, the question is whether we are saving lives and serious illness.

Winter weather does seem to be a big driver of infection.  Its fortunate that most of the poorer countries don't experience the kind of winter weather we do in Europe.

4 hours ago, Loge said:

I don't know much about Austria but the situation in Germany is actually worse than last year.

So yes, in infection terms.  But not in fatality terms.  I know there is a lag but you can see that the % of deaths among those that contract COVID is way lower in the second half of the year compared to pre-vaccination.  It peaked at 2.8% but over the last few months it has fallen below 1%. I imagine it will go up a little because of that lag but I can't see it getting anywhere close to 2.8%.   Especially as more boosters are being roled out.

It is a pity that Germany's vaccination rate is relatively low though.

[Paxter]

4 hours ago, RhaenysBee said:

because it kinda shows that it did fuckall to get all those vaccines. 

I think that view is a little extreme. Take Israel as an example, which experienced a severe post-vaccine surge in cases from August to October that eclipsed all previous outbreaks. Vaccines helped significantly from a harm-reduction perspective and kept fatalities to a level that was actually lower than the Jan-March wave. The health care system also came under pressure, but vaccines allowed Bennett to get away with fewer restrictions.

[Loge]

1 hour ago, Padraig said:

So yes, in infection terms.  But not in fatality terms.  I know there is a lag but you can see that the % of deaths among those that contract COVID is way lower in the second half of the year compared to pre-vaccination.  It peaked at 2.8% but over the last few months it has fallen below 1%. I imagine it will go up a little because of that lag but I can't see it getting anywhere close to 2.8%.   Especially as more boosters are being roled out.

It is a pity that Germany's vaccination rate is relatively low though.

Obviously, the vaccines help with the fatality rate. The problem is that the numbers are still growing, and fast. If that doesn't stop soon the hospitals will be full. Quite a few of them already are. When ICU capacity is maxed out people will die from all sort of causes because they don't get treatment.  

[RhaenysBee]

1 hour ago, Padraig said:

On the positive side, we have vaccinations.

On the negative side, we have the Delta variant, winter weather, much less restrictions, people being less careful etc.

We are asking a lot from vaccines.  And there is admittedly a waning affect, especially against infection.

So while infections are way up because of those negatives, the question is whether we are saving lives and serious illness.

Winter weather does seem to be a big driver of infection.  Its fortunate that most of the poorer countries don't experience the kind of winter weather we do in Europe.

Well you are quite right, we are asking a lot from vaccines. And that’s because all we listened to for a year, that vaccines will come and it’ll all be okay. And even now, when it’s not all okay, we keep pushing the vaccine narrative. Because it’s easier and more comfortable to shift the responsibility to the vaccines instead of practicing due self discipline and enforcing preventative measures. If we allow people to slack off on their personal responsibility and contribution, because the vaccine is labeled as the ultimate solution, people will expect to see it actually solve things.

This is especially painful in parts of the world where relevant restrictions weren’t reintroduced, because “hey, we have vaccines”. So yes, we don’t have a real basis for comparison of how much vaccines add. Because we took away the restrictions. And if we hadn’t, not until 90+% of the population is properly immunized, we would have seen, how much vaccines do. And maybe we’d still see a significant wave 4 because delta is that much stronger, but at least there’d be fewer variables and we could draw more reliable conclusions. 
 

25 minutes ago, Paxter said:

I think that view is a little extreme. Take Israel as an example, which experienced a severe post-vaccine surge in cases from August to October that eclipsed all previous outbreaks. Vaccines helped significantly from a harm-reduction perspective and kept fatalities to a level that was actually lower than the Jan-March wave. The health care system also came under pressure, but vaccines allowed Bennett to get away with fewer restrictions.

Yes. In Israel. And in many other places, this is not what has happened or is happening. I am fully aware that vaccines did bring a positive impact, but I am someone who spends an unhealthy amount of time browsing covid data and trying to make sense of what’s happening. The average Joe doesn’t, what they do see is that we were and are pushed to get a vaccine, yet there are more cases and more deaths than in the last wave. This does not promote the willingness to get vaccinated. Basically my problem is that we don’t see what the vaccine does for us, so we may slip into thinking it doesn’t do anything. 

[rotting sea cow]

10 minutes ago, RhaenysBee said:

Well you are quite right, we are asking a lot from vaccines. And that’s because all we listened to for a year, that vaccines will come and it’ll all be okay. And even now, when it’s not all okay, we keep pushing the vaccine narrative. Because it’s easier and more comfortable to shift the responsibility to the vaccines instead of practicing due self discipline and enforcing preventative measures. If we allow people to slack off on their personal responsibility and contribution, because the vaccine is labeled as the ultimate solution, people will expect to see it actually solve things.

I completely agree with this statement. Vaccines are not the silver bullet that we thought before. Countries with higher vaccination rates than Germany (like Portugal, Denmark, Island) are also seeing their case load rises and the question is how bad will it be for them in a few weeks. At least some countries like Portugal are rolling back some measures before things get really bad.  The question is then, will that only delay the wave or fully prevent it. Maybe it will just give them time to boost part of the population to not overload the hospitals.

There is a lot of what I call western exceptionalism in this sort of thinking. The same thinking that doomed countries in Feb-March 2020.

We saw what happened in India and we just shifted the blame on Modi and the lack of vaccines.

We saw the wave in south US states and the blame was put on antivaxxers and republicans

We saw the big summer wave and the persistent high infection rate in the UK but the blame was on Brexit Boris.

We saw the disaster in Russia, Romania and other eastern European countries and the blame was on their pitiful vaccination rates.

Now countries with pretty decent vaccination rates are being hammered. Where are we going to put the blame? With those high vaccination, shouldn't have we expected a far more milder wave?

 

[Luzifer's right hand]

39 minutes ago, rotting sea cow said:

I completely agree with this statement. Vaccines are not the silver bullet that we thought before. Countries with higher vaccination rates than Germany (like Portugal, Denmark, Island) are also seeing their case load rises and the question is how bad will it be for them in a few weeks. At least some countries like Portugal are rolling back some measures before things get really bad.  The question is then, will that only delay the wave or fully prevent it. Maybe it will just give them time to boost part of the population to not overload the hospitals.

There is a lot of what I call western exceptionalism in this sort of thinking. The same thinking that doomed countries in Feb-March 2020.

We saw what happened in India and we just shifted the blame on Modi and the lack of vaccines.

We saw the wave in south US states and the blame was put on antivaxxers and republicans

We saw the big summer wave and the persistent high infection rate in the UK but the blame was on Brexit Boris.

We saw the disaster in Russia, Romania and other eastern European countries and the blame was on their pitiful vaccination rates.

Now countries with pretty decent vaccination rates are being hammered. Where are we going to put the blame? With those high vaccination, shouldn't have we expected a far more milder wave?

Actually the RKI and similar orgs expected a significant autumn wave because vaccination rate in Germany is too low.

Also measures were far more extreme last year around this time in Austria. The lockdown for the unvaccinated made international news but no expert expected that it would work. Home office rate has taken a nose dive and distance learning has been abandoned.

People are far less careful than last year around this time in general.

Also delta.

Boosters after 6 months were expected to be necessary after what happened in Israel.

There are enough explainations.

 

[Filippa Eilhart]

vaccines are obviously the solution, they just should be mandatory.

[Luzifer's right hand]

6 minutes ago, Filippa Eilhart said:

vaccines are obviously the solution, they just should be mandatory.

They have been floating that idea here more and more. But how do you enforce that if less extreme measures are unenforceable?

[Zorral]

1 hour ago, RhaenysBee said:

we don’t see what the vaccine does for us, so we may slip into thinking it doesn’t do anything. 

That seems, um, well, short-sighted?  When we can see the maps here in the USA, for example and SEE where the surges and bed shortages are, and where they are not.  All summer the same states and areas that are anti-mask, anti-vaccination, anti-social distancing, while gathering in great numbers together indoors and out, surged out of control.  They are still surging with Delta out-of-control, and they are still not vaccinating.

While the areas where vaccination is strong did not surge with Delta all summer long -- did not surge at all.  And then in September at least some of those same areas, such as NYC, instituted a vaccination mandate for doing anything indoors.  We are still not ... surging.  But it is winter, and it is the holidays, and now we have all kinds of people coming in from all over, and our new cases are ticking up.

But the starkest difference between the states that surges all summer (and still are) and places like ours that did not, is vaccination rates.  We SEE it on the maps and in the numbers.

 

[HoodedCrow]

Hope you are well, Zorral:)

Can you imagine going back in time and saying…psst, it’s in the fleas, so what you really need is better hygiene, insecticide, and a ratting dog.

[Paxter]

2 hours ago, RhaenysBee said:

Yes. In Israel. And in many other places, this is not what has happened or is happening. 

Can you provide the names of the places you refer to above (either regions or countries)? I’d like to look at the post-vaccine data. 

[Mlle. Zabzie]

52 minutes ago, Zorral said:

That seems, um, well, short-sighted?  When we can see the maps here in the USA, for example and SEE where the surges and bed shortages are, and where they are not.  All summer the same states and areas that are anti-mask, anti-vaccination, anti-social distancing, while gathering in great numbers together indoors and out, surged out of control.  They are still surging with Delta out-of-control, and they are still not vaccinating.

While the areas where vaccination is strong did not surge with Delta all summer long -- did not surge at all.  And then in September at least some of those same areas, such as NYC, instituted a vaccination mandate for doing anything indoors.  We are still not ... surging.  But it is winter, and it is the holidays, and now we have all kinds of people coming in from all over, and our new cases are ticking up.

But the starkest difference between the states that surges all summer (and still are) and places like ours that did not, is vaccination rates.  We SEE it on the maps and in the numbers.

 

Yes, thank you for that.  We are going to see numbers go up in highly vaccinated areas as well, but hopefully more manageably.  We simply are - zero covid is no longer the end game.  So, what is the "end game"? Put differently, realistically, how are we going to live with endemic* covid in our lives?  Covid will remain a killer, particularly for the unvaccinated, in the medium term.  The question is how do we bridge our lives between now and the point in time when there is a general risk tolerance for covid?  Vaccination is obvious.  Mask mandates seem obvious to me as well. Less obvious to me are continual rolling shut downs if for no other reason that there is a limit to people's willingness to comply, and a discomfort with state power continuously interrupting assembly.

 

*To be clear, I am not suggesting that covid is endemic now.  It's not.  BUT, it is going to creep in that direction, almost imperceptibly, until, well, it is.

[Zorral]

1 hour ago, HoodedCrow said:

Hope you are well, Zorral:)

Can you imagine going back in time and saying…psst, it’s in the fleas, so what you really need is better hygiene, insecticide, and a ratting dog.

Thanks, I recovered from booster reaction completely by Sunday.  In fact, since then I feel better physically than in a while, with more energy.  I don't know how that happened. It won't last, surely.  But, I guess ... I'm looking forward to Thanksgiving. Ha!

As for going back in time to prevent or mitigate bubonic plague -- it couldn't happen within the European populations at large w/o indoor plumbing, etc., one would think.  Now the royal courts and other who could afford the numbers of servants to take the place of indoor plumbing and other conveniences that allowed us to isolate for long here in NYC 2020 until vaccination -- they generally with few exceptions did just fine in their vast estates and locked castles and palaces, as Edward III's court did.  The only royal member who died was his daughter Joanna, in the Pyrenees on her way to marry the infante of Castile.  Things didn't work out so well in later waves, yet still, those who could afford to lock themselves away and live in a level of cleanliness simply unavailable to the majority survived far better. Still, the Black Prince came down with something in the Castilian War, from which he could never fully recover, and which some years later killed him.  One does wonder ... you know, like Long Covid?

Madame Z -- I agree.  We have to find a way to live with this.  And again, unlike the 14th C, we could, easily, if enough people from top to bottom paid attention to what we've learned from the waves and mutations of covid infections.  To know when there's a cluster outbreak in our community to take immediately common sense steps, to keep wearing masks in most public situations, get our boosters and whatever other preventive medications are developed.  Most of all, to keep up levels of hygiene and ventilation.  Which, considering how old and overcrowded say, most of the schools in this country are -- is pretty hard unless the community will is strong.  Which we, alas, know generally is not. OTOH enrollment in all schools at all levels is already down with the end of the last baby boom.

 

 

[Paxter]

44 minutes ago, Mlle. Zabzie said:

Less obvious to me are continual rolling shut downs if for no other reason that there is a limit to people's willingness to comply, and a discomfort with state power continuously interrupting assembly.

I think there is some middle ground though. You don’t have to have a total shutdown, but you can keep office workers at home, reduce capacity limits for high risk venues, limit certain activities to vaccinated people (for an extreme example, see Italy’s green pass) etc.

These are the kind of interventions that places like the US, Alberta, Northern and Central Europe foolishly abandoned this summer.

[DireWolfSpirit]

At our workplace here in the upper Midwest of the U.S. a memo was circulated Friday saying the 1/10/22 deadline for mandatory vaccination has been put on hold.

Apparently the Biden Administration's OSHA enforced Vaxx mandate (for employers of 100 or more) is tied up in legal challenge.

I have zero empathy for all the vaccine deniers and hesitants that face the "get it or quit" dilemma. As far as I'm concerned the sooner their hand is forced the better for the rest of us.

Get it or quit.

[Kalbear]

As much as I like the idea of people being convinced to do the right thing is good, the fact is that a whole lot of people will just not do it unless compelled to. Some are antivaccers, and some are just hesitant or lazy, but mandates do, in fact, work, and always have. 

They're not super politically popular and that sucks, but they're also very effective. 

And the US, because of how incredibly stupid and broken the government system is, will not be able to do one effectively across the board.