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Covid-19 #41: Collateral Damage


Fragile Bird

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59 minutes ago, Heartofice said:

Is there any data as to who has been vaccinated already in Austria. I’m hearing it’s at 65% of adults but is there an age breakdown?

Luz will probably be able to give you the breakdown, but I think it's 65% of the population fully vaccinated, not adults. 

That's about 6 percentage points higher than the US. Though the US admittedly would have a higher number of unvaccinated people who have recovered from previous infection. 

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So I keep wondering what is our problem. Well this is our problem: 

Person at the dentist: so what should I write here because my vaccination ID isn’t here. 
receptionist: well you should at least write down the date, if you don’t know the ID number. 
Person: ok 

receptionist: so I don’t see the date of your vaccination on the form. 
Person: I don’t remember exactly. 
receptionist: what month was it roughly?
Person: in the summer… around the summer. 

So much about enforcing the few existing measures. The person’s vaccination ID iSn’T hErE. But the person was vaccinated aRoUnD sUmMeR. I’m not even going to mention that you can check for your vaccination ID online and via an app - exactly for the cases when it iSn’T hErE. 

Although I’m a bit unfair because the person is wearing a mask at least, sanitized hands twice in the 25 minutes we spent here and sat 1.5 meters from me. So it could be worse. 

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2 hours ago, Paxter said:

Luz will probably be able to give you the breakdown, but I think it's 65% of the population fully vaccinated, not adults. 

That's about 6 percentage points higher than the US. Though the US admittedly would have a higher number of unvaccinated people who have recovered from previous infection. 

65 % of the entire population is correct.

My state has 60% which is the lowest in Austria.

I grew up in a rural area of the state and some places there have less than 50%. We are the Texas of Austria I guess.

120 active cases in the 4640 people place I live in today.

I got my booster today as every adult can get boosted after 4 months now.

I thanked the lady that checked my details for her work (red cross volunteer) and she was really happy about it.

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2 hours ago, Paxter said:

Luz will probably be able to give you the breakdown, but I think it's 65% of the population fully vaccinated, not adults. 

That's about 6 percentage points higher than the US. Though the US admittedly would have a higher number of unvaccinated people who have recovered from previous infection. 

There was an intersting article comparing infection rates and vaccination rate in the guardian today

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/nov/19/storm-clouds-over-europe-but-uk-covid-rates-remain-higher

So, Germany and the UK have comparable vaccination rates (fully vaccinated whole population 68,5 (UK) to 67,5 (Germany) and comparable infection rates. The difference is that the UK infection rate was so high for months now, while ours exploded 3 weeks ago to reach now a comparable size. The UK coped (and started to ignore Covid more or less) while we are panicking. Some questions must be ask here. We do have a rather good health system. Perhaps we were just sleeping (or having a national election in September and no new government yet) while sliding into that  emergency by thinking the pandemic over. it looks like we are just starting now to realize that there may be a problem which needs action. Now a whole lot of new measures are proposed on top of each other. the most promising IMO is the new rule that every employee has to have a new Covid test everyday for going to work if he is not vaccinated (or recovered from infections). That may raise the vaccination rate. Also the politicians decided that boosters may be a good idea after all and want to ramp up (third) vaccination. We will see if this helps, but it may be to late to halt this wave before Christmas.

Comparing  Europe to the UK I think the UK will only avoid a new wave , if their immunization rate through infection is much higher than ours (it is definitly higher than ours, the question is how much) . What a great sign that would be for all of us, that there is an end to this at a certain point.

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also, I read in a newspaper today that lombardy (the italien region so hard hit at the beginning) and south tyrol (another italian region) are now offering to take our covid patients if we are running out of beds.  I hope we dont need it, but the offer made me happy, we helped them and now they help us, this is how it should be between neighbours.

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1 hour ago, JoannaL said:

There was an intersting article comparing infection rates and vaccination rate in the guardian today

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/nov/19/storm-clouds-over-europe-but-uk-covid-rates-remain-higher

So, Germany and the UK have comparable vaccination rates (fully vaccinated whole population 68,5 (UK) to 67,5 (Germany) and comparable infection rates. The difference is that the UK infection rate was so high for months now, while ours exploded 3 weeks ago to reach now a comparable size. The UK coped (and started to ignore Covid more or less) while we are panicking. Some questions must be ask here. We do have a rather good health system. Perhaps we were just sleeping (or having a national election in September and no new government yet) while sliding into that  emergency by thinking the pandemic over. it looks like we are just starting now to realize that there may be a problem which needs action. Now a whole lot of new measures are proposed on top of each other. the most promising IMO is the new rule that every employee has to have a new Covid test everyday for going to work if he is not vaccinated (or recovered from infections). That may raise the vaccination rate. Also the politicians decided that boosters may be a good idea after all and want to ramp up (third) vaccination. We will see if this helps, but it may be to late to halt this wave before Christmas.

Comparing  Europe to the UK I think the UK will only avoid a new wave , if their immunization rate through infection is much higher than ours (it is definitly higher than ours, the question is how much) . What a great sign that would be for all of us, that there is an end to this at a certain point.

All UK folks I interact with are far more diligent than I and home office and mask mandates at workplaces seem far more common. I only interact with board people but here I'm a pro measures extremist and not even I bothered with our app for example. 

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1 hour ago, JoannaL said:

also, I read in a newspaper today that lombardy (the italien region so hard hit at the beginning) and south tyrol (another italian region) are now offering to take our covid patients if we are running out of beds.  I hope we dont need it, but the offer made me happy, we helped them and now they help us, this is how it should be between neighbours.

Nice reciprocation I agree!

Whether by coincidence or not I'm not sure, but the two main COVID hotspots right now in Italy are two places that arguably resemble Germany and Austria more than the rest of Italy - Bolzano and Trieste. 

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4 hours ago, JoannaL said:

There was an intersting article comparing infection rates and vaccination rate in the guardian today

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/nov/19/storm-clouds-over-europe-but-uk-covid-rates-remain-higher

So, Germany and the UK have comparable vaccination rates (fully vaccinated whole population 68,5 (UK) to 67,5 (Germany) and comparable infection rates. The difference is that the UK infection rate was so high for months now, while ours exploded 3 weeks ago to reach now a comparable size. The UK coped (and started to ignore Covid more or less) while we are panicking. Some questions must be ask here. We do have a rather good health system. Perhaps we were just sleeping (or having a national election in September and no new government yet) while sliding into that  emergency by thinking the pandemic over. it looks like we are just starting now to realize that there may be a problem which needs action. Now a whole lot of new measures are proposed on top of each other. the most promising IMO is the new rule that every employee has to have a new Covid test everyday for going to work if he is not vaccinated (or recovered from infections). That may raise the vaccination rate. Also the politicians decided that boosters may be a good idea after all and want to ramp up (third) vaccination. We will see if this helps, but it may be to late to halt this wave before Christmas.

Comparing  Europe to the UK I think the UK will only avoid a new wave , if their immunization rate through infection is much higher than ours (it is definitly higher than ours, the question is how much) . What a great sign that would be for all of us, that there is an end to this at a certain point.

Pretty much the main reason the UK opened up earlier and has had higher infection rates for so long is that we are almost guaranteed a bad winter when it comes to flu, and the coinciding of everyone coming out of lockdown with reduced immunity to flu and other viruses as well as the inevitable uptick in Covid cases would be very bad for the NHS. 
 

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5 hours ago, JoannaL said:

. The UK coped (and started to ignore Covid more or less)

This is indeed the correct summation of our strategy here in the UK. In addition, trying to increase a population's immunity by natural infection was and always will be a bad strategy, and certainly not a good public health one.

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19 hours ago, JoannaL said:

Comparing  Europe to the UK I think the UK will only avoid a new wave , if their immunization rate through infection is much higher than ours (it is definitly higher than ours, the question is how much) . What a great sign that would be for all of us, that there is an end to this at a certain point.

I don't quite get this.  To get a new wave would suggest that the UK got to the end of its last wave.  But it has been surfing that wave since July.  I don't see any sign from the UK data that there is an end.  If anything, while there has been mini-waves inside that long wave, the trend is slightly upwards.

The most likely "end" is that by Jan/Feb booster levels will start reaching decent levels.  That should moderate things.  By March, the weather will be warming again and cases will drop significantly.  Then we just got to worry about next Winter!

The UK has normalised 1000 people dying every week for months. It is what it is.  Maybe things will get even worse in other parts of Europe but I think restrictions will kick in before that is allowed  to happen for long.

These new anti-viral pills may help but it is unclear how well they'll help.  I think both Merck and Pfizer were tested on unvaccinated people with risk factors.  How well will they work on vaccinated people with risk factors?   There probably will be some benefit but how significant?  The reason why you are a breakthrough case may also mean you are less susceptible to be helped by these drugs (although that is pure speculation).

Anyway, the EMA has given emergency permission to use Merck (the UK had already done so).  So good to have the option at least.

https://www.reuters.com/business/healthcare-pharmaceuticals/eu-begins-review-pfizers-covid-19-pill-2021-11-19/

And India is going to send 20m Novavax doses to Indonesia.  That is good.  Hopefully a lot more of that out there.

https://www.reuters.com/markets/asia/india-allows-export-20-mln-novavax-vaccine-doses-indonesia-document-source-2021-11-18/

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2 hours ago, Padraig said:

I don't quite get this.  To get a new wave would suggest that the UK got to the end of its last wave.  But it has been surfing that wave since July.  I don't see any sign from the UK data that there is an end.  If anything, while there has been mini-waves inside that long wave, the trend is slightly upwards.

 

Well, obviously I mean a wave above the summer "baseline" . Our summer baseline was low and now its rising sharply. The UK "baseline" was much higher (perhaps less measures?), but I think it is wrong to call it a wave (since it did not rise and fall strongly and swiftly) and the question is now: will the UK see a winter wave on top of it, or not.

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4 hours ago, JoannaL said:

the question is now: will the UK see a winter wave on top of it, or not.

Possibly not.  That was part of the design.  Better to let people get sick in Jul/Aug than winter.  I think they may have hoped that the worst of it would be over by the time that winter came around but Delta isn't that kind. So you can easily see numbers more or less plateau for the next couple of months (until boosters kick in significantly).  It seems very different from Germany.

Germany does seem more dramatic but the question for Germany is how long this wave is going to last.  Romania burned through its wave in 2 months.

The EU is considering tying is vaccine cert to boosters, which makes sense.  Although, we'll all have a few months.

https://www.politico.eu/article/brussels-mulls-tying-vaccine-certificates-to-booster-shots/

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Just got my Moderna booster....oh, about 2 hours ago. They didnt even do the 15 minute monitoring this time, just said go ahead and do your groceries, and if you do feel anything let us know.

I had a mildish headache going in, but didnt take any OTC medication.  If I do feel feverish or whatever in a few hours (dont have any symptoms right now), the acetaminophen (paracetamol for my European and Asian readers) will hopefully take care of the headache too.

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2 hours ago, IheartIheartTesla said:

Just got my Moderna booster....oh, about 2 hours ago. They didnt even do the 15 minute monitoring this time, just said go ahead and do your groceries, and if you do feel anything let us know.

I got my Moderna booster yesterday and I think was at the pharmacy for maybe 5 minutes total, including spelling out my name so they could pull up the appointment and signing the consent forms. They didn't do the monitoring for me either -- the person who administered the shot said, "If you were going to have an anaphylactic response, it would have happened on one of the first two times so we're not worried about the third time."

Been mostly okay today -- sore at the injection spot with some achiness that spread to my shoulder, though nothing that could be distinguished from my shoulder hurting because I slept in some weird, awkward position. Had a bit of a headache in the late afternoon today, so I took some aspirin, took a nap with the cat, and woke up feeling fairly normal.

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