Worst plan ever made in the saga ?

[The Bard of Banefort]

I still don’t understand Arianne’s plot, and I don’t see how a grown royal could fail to think more than a few weeks ahead. It really makes her look like a dumbass. 
 

Doran is probably the ruler we’d all like living under if we were small folk, since he kept Dorne out the war and fairly prosperous. If he committed to that, he’d be golden.  The problem is he also wants revenge, and his plans for that have been totally bungled.

Ned going to Cersei was dumb, but it was done more out of fear of what would happen to Tommen and Myrcella than part of a greater plan. Ned was acting on his humanity here, so I don’t consider it a bad political move so much as an act of mercy that went wrong.

[Daena the Defiant]

20 minutes ago, The Bard of Banefort said:

I still don’t understand Arianne’s plot, and I don’t see how a grown royal could fail to think more than a few weeks ahead. It really makes her look like a dumbass. 

This.  Even years later, I don't understand what her goal was - yay. So you have crowned a queen off-site in the hands of a quasi-autonomous/quasi-hostile ruler, where she is a) betrothed to member of the ruling elite and b) basically a hostage.  Was she expecting anyone else except the Dornish to rise for Queen Myrcella, especially since two of the mightiest houses (Lannister and Tyrell) are occupying the capitol and holding the reins of power.  I'm still baffled.

Edited November 14, 2021 by Daena the Defiant

[Angel Eyes]

20 minutes ago, Daena the Defiant said:

This.  Even years later, I don't understand what her goal was - yay. So you have crowned a queen off-site in the hands of a quasi-autonomous/quasi-hostile ruler, where she is a) betrothed to member of the ruling elite and b) basically a hostage.  Was she expecting anyone else except the Dornish to rise for Queen Myrcella, especially since two of the mightiest houses (Lannister and Tyrell) are occupying the capitol and holding the reins of power.  I'm still baffled.

Well, Tyene had suggested a similar plan: crown Myrcella and let the Lannisters come to them, where they would be (theoretically) beaten by the Dornish desert. There's also the fact that it was an act of self-preservation in her mind, thinking that Doran was using Quentyn to supplant her.

Basically, what Arianne was trying to do was provoke a war between Dorne and the Lannisters.

[Terrorthatflapsinthenight9]

1 minute ago, Angel Eyes said:

Well, Tyene had suggested a similar plan: crown Myrcella and let the Lannisters come to them, where they would be (theoretically) beaten by the Dornish desert. There's also the fact that it was an act of self-preservation in her mind, thinking that Doran was using Quentyn to supplant her.

Basically, what Arianne was trying to do was provoke a war between Dorne and the Lannisters.

Yes, which was far smarter that the plans Obara and Nymeria brought up, but still very far from sure to be a good plan since the other kingdoms all put males before females in the succession line ans that dornish aren't very popular in the rest of Westeros and so it's far from sure that they would have taken this enough seriously to send armies to Dorne.

[Bloodraven’s Spider]

Cersei arming the faith has to be the dumbest plan in the entire series across every book, be it before or after the start of AGOT

[frenin]

1 hour ago, Angel Eyes said:

Well, Tyene had suggested a similar plan: crown Myrcella and let the Lannisters come to them, where they would be (theoretically) beaten by the Dornish desert. There's also the fact that it was an act of self-preservation in her mind, thinking that Doran was using Quentyn to supplant her.

Basically, what Arianne was trying to do was provoke a war between Dorne and the Lannisters.

I still don't know why there would be a war... The Lannisters would be content with ignoring them till the situation was calm enough to attack. If it ever got to that, since as long as their taxes came in time...

The Lannisters weren't silly enough to attack the Vale.

 

 

 

[Angel Eyes]

55 minutes ago, frenin said:

I still don't know why there would be a war... The Lannisters would be content with ignoring them till the situation was calm enough to attack. If it ever got to that, since as long as their taxes came in time...

The Lannisters weren't silly enough to attack the Vale.

 

 

 

In the sense that Tyene was trying to provoke a war. Also as far as why Arianne attempted this plan, she wanted to show her father that she was worthy of succeeding him over Quentyn.

Doran in general baffles me for a number of reasons, like why he didn't take a firmer hand in making sure Viserys was a suitable son-in-law who wasn't going to abuse Arianne or making sure Quentyn could succeed in courting Daenerys. Take Viserys: Doran's excuse for not helping Viserys is bullshit: if Mellario didn't like the whole fostering idea, why not send Mellario and Arianne to Norvos, then summon Viserys there?

Edited November 15, 2021 by Angel Eyes

[Walda]

9 hours ago, Hugorfonics said:

I'm also a bit skeptical on breaking the queens peace, hiring two traitors and oathbrakers to free a eunuch, a teenage dothraki, and an infamous sellsword within the middle of the largest army the world has ever seen. 

Oh Barristan. Such a good Queensguard, such a bad Hand. I just know he has handed Meereen to Skahaz, who, if he is not the Harpy, will be, just as soon as all the warriors but his Brazen Beasts leave the city and he slams the gates shut behind them.

Barristan has an endearing level of self-awareness.

Quote

“Your Grace,” he said, “I fear your eunuchs are ill suited for the tasks you set them.”

Dany settled on her bench and wrapped her pelt about her shoulders once again. “The Unsullied are my finest warriors.”

“Soldiers, not warriors, if it please Your Grace. They were made for the battlefield, to stand shoulder to shoulder behind their shields with their spears thrust out before them. Their training teaches them to obey, fearlessly, perfectly, without thought or hesitation … not to unravel secrets or ask questions.”

“Would knights serve me any better?” Selmy was training knights for her, teaching the sons of slaves to fight with lance and longsword in the Westerosi fashion … but what good would lances do against cowards who killed from the shadows?

“Not in this,” the old man admitted.

It is a rare quality, and one that does nothing to improve his battle plans. King Mine-by-rights is much better at commanding armies, and gives the stealth missions to stealthy people like Davos and Melisandre. 

If Dany ever meets him again, I don't think she will thank him.

[The Bard of Banefort]

3 hours ago, Angel Eyes said:

Well, Tyene had suggested a similar plan: crown Myrcella and let the Lannisters come to them, where they would be (theoretically) beaten by the Dornish desert. There's also the fact that it was an act of self-preservation in her mind, thinking that Doran was using Quentyn to supplant her.

Basically, what Arianne was trying to do was provoke a war between Dorne and the Lannisters.

But then what? If the Lannisters don’t invade Dorne (and I don’t know why they would—maybe Dorne stops paying taxes to the crown?) then the whole plan falls apart and either Myrcella has to renounce her crown, sit around pretending to be a queen for years, or try to sit the Iron Throne herself, getting them all killed. 
 

Did Arianne think the Dornish would follow her because they thought Doran was too weak? 

[Thandros]

Robb Stark's military plan during ACOK. Most of these plans have some tiny slim prospect of improving the situation of the ones initiating the plans. Robb's plan if everything goes exactly as he was planning puts him in a worse military position than he started. It only had the chance of working in his favour at all because of stuff he likely didn't even consider occurring when he was originally making the plan. It works much better in hindsight than it ever could have in foresight.

[SeanF]

Doran’s “master plan”.  It involved keeping Arianne, Viserys, and Daenerys completely in the dark about what he intended for them.

Edited November 15, 2021 by SeanF

[Ivashanko]

7 hours ago, Thandros said:

Robb Stark's military plan during ACOK. Most of these plans have some tiny slim prospect of improving the situation of the ones initiating the plans. Robb's plan if everything goes exactly as he was planning puts him in a worse military position than he started. It only had the chance of working in his favour at all because of stuff he likely didn't even consider occurring when he was originally making the plan. It works much better in hindsight than it ever could have in foresight.

 

I must be misremembering, wasn't Rob's plan to keep Tywin occupied in the north so the Baratheons' could crush the Lannisters in the south? That's not the worst plan in the world. Tywin would be forced to flee back to his territory and the Baratheons would have no choice but to invade, which would give the North time to prepare and perhaps to make peace.

[Phylum of Alexandria]

Tywin should have appealed to the throne when Catelyn arrested Tyrion. He could have used the opportunity to defame the Stark's reputation (hire some singers to spread "The Wolf is Smallest of Them All" or some such propaganda) and save a lot of bloodshed and chaos.

[SeanF]

21 hours ago, Hugorfonics said:

Interesting analysis! 

 

Speaking of Brienne, just riding the kingsroad asking anyone and everyone if they've seen Sansa is straight superb detective work. 

 

I'm also a bit skeptical on breaking the queens peace, hiring two traitors and oathbrakers to free a eunuch, a teenage dothraki, and an infamous sellsword within the middle of the largest army the world has ever seen. 

Oh, and for some reason, if they succeed or fail, Dany must now occupy Pentos with its master Illyrio, the grandfather of dragons.

Skahaz has his his own reasons for manipulating Ser Barristan, but in general, the reasons for attacking the Slavers’ army are sound.

[Terrorthatflapsinthenight9]

I am surprised that no one has talked about Morion Martell and his utterly retarded plan to attack the Stormlands via the sea as revenge for the defeat and death of the Vulture King, with him and his fleet ending destroyed by Jaehaerys and his sons' dragons in the only conflict in ASOIAF history where one side was annihilated while the other suffered no casualty at all.

Not only he was going to war for a stupid reason while his father had wisely avoided to intervene and risk war with the Iron Throne, but he moronly discarded every asset and advantage he and Dorne had to try to invade the Stormlands by sea which was not totally stupid not only because of how vulnerable a fleet would be to dragons and their fire but because it was very unlikely that his efforts to build a fleet for an invasion, while dornish had little lumber and naval expertise and so would need lots of time and help from essosi pirates and shipwrights to build and manoeuver their fleet, wouldn't be noticed by the Iron Throne's intelligence. 

And of course Jaeherys not only heard about Morion's project long before he could act on it, but to add salt to injury he learned it from sources directly present in Morion's court. When Morion's fleet finally moved it was intercepted and utterly destroyed by Jaehaerys and his sons Aemon and Baelon on their dragons in the only war of ASOIAF with no casualty on one side ever, finally giving the Targaryens revenge on Dorne and the Martells after Aegon's failed invasion of Dorne.

And it seems that Morion has reincarnated himself in present day in the person of Obara Sand if her plan to avenge her father, Oberyn Martell, is anything to goes by.

 

Edited November 15, 2021 by Terrorthatflapsinthenight9

[Angel Eyes]

13 hours ago, The Bard of Banefort said:

But then what? If the Lannisters don’t invade Dorne (and I don’t know why they would—maybe Dorne stops paying taxes to the crown?) then the whole plan falls apart and either Myrcella has to renounce her crown, sit around pretending to be a queen for years, or try to sit the Iron Throne herself, getting them all killed. 
 

Did Arianne think the Dornish would follow her because they thought Doran was too weak? 

I think yes; the perception of Doran, at least regarding his family (Arianne and the Sand Snakes in particular) is of a weak ruler who's a doormat. Arianne wanted to prove she was as smart as her father and she thought that the Dornish were also in line with her way of thinking; whether or not they are is unknown.

[EggBlue]

2 hours ago, Terrorthatflapsinthenight9 said:

And it seems that Morion has reincarnated himself in present day in the person of Obara Sand if her plan to avenge her father, Oberyn Martell, is anything to goes by.

truely

[frenin]

16 hours ago, Angel Eyes said:

In the sense that Tyene was trying to provoke a war. Also as far as why Arianne attempted this plan, she wanted to show her father that she was worthy of succeeding him over Quentyn.

Oh I know that she wanted to provoke a war. I'm simply asking why would the Lannisters give then the war they wanted at all.

It's simply not worth.

 

 

4 hours ago, Phylum of Alexandria said:

Tywin should have appealed to the throne when Catelyn arrested Tyrion. He could have used the opportunity to defame the Stark's reputation (hire some singers to spread "The Wolf is Smallest of Them All" or some such propaganda) and save a lot of bloodshed and chaos.

He def could if Tywin was ever interested in something that wasn't might makes right. 

Ned's and Robert's dead saved him from a lot of trouble, he gave the Starks the perfect scape goat when he decided to send Gregor to the Riverlands.

 

 

 

[Terrorthatflapsinthenight9]

18 minutes ago, EggBlue said:

truely

Yep because it's surely very smart to seize the Marchers Castles, nevermind that these castles are very strong and that it's especially hard to attack and siege castles in mountainous areas, not counting that the Marchers lords have a strong martial tradition and that their garrisons are almost completely intact since they didn't contribute to the war. 

And it's even smarter to then go for Oldtown even if its forces and defenses, which are among the strongest in Westeros, are quasi intact too, that the dornish who are limited in numbers and tend to not fare well in prolonged campaigns outside of Dorne and will have to face armies much larger than them and with the home and logistics advantages even before reaching Oldtown, even more after reaching the city which is very unlikely to fall to a reduced and tired dornish army. 

But what makes her plan especially brilliant is that neither the Marchers Castles nor Oldtown have anything to do with Oberyn, Elia or her children's deaths, that attacking them wouldn't hurt the Lannisters or avenge the dead Martells in any way and that it only gets the Martells and Dorne more enemies and lots of casualties, and that she has no counter plan to the inevitable retaliation from the Iron Throne. 

Even Balon Greyjoy isn't such a brilliant tactician and strategist, lol. 

[Walda]

On 11/15/2021 at 9:04 AM, Bloodraven’s Spider said:

Cersei arming the faith has to be the dumbest plan in the entire series

Although we have not seen this go spectacularly wrong yet. 

Escorting Cersei on her Walk of Shame is all we have yet seen the Poor Fellows do, and as Brienne saw on her way to Duskendale, they had formed without royal sanction before they arrived with the bones of the martyrs in King's Landing. 

The worst thing done to Cersei, her capture, was at the hands of a score or a couple of dozen unarmed septas. The worst thing done to Osney, a scourging he came to and submitted to of his own somewhat coerced will.

The Warrior's Sons wouldn't have re-formed without Cersei's proclamation. But again, all we have seen them do is form and protect the Great Sept of Baelor. Perhaps escort Tommen to his blessing, if that has happened off-page. 

Lancel has given up Darry for them, but at the moment, the only clear consequence of that has been the annulling his marriage to Gatehouse Ami. That is a bit humiliating for Amerie, but not obviously a perilous mistake. Especially if Lyle Crakehall, a solid Lannister bannerman, becomes Castellan for the Frey widow of Darry.

We also don't know yet of any dire consequence of Ser Bonifer and the Holy Eighty-Six taking over Harrenhal.

True, history and the foreshadowing don't favor any of them. In fact, while the old-time Warrior's sons boasted great knights and sorcerers, they seem to deserve at least a brief mention in this thread. "Rebel and Burn" seems to have been their entire gameplan. 

But for this new incarnation, we have to wait and see what happens in Winds of Winter in order to have a fair appreciation of just how bad an idea it was to revive them, and whether the High Sparrow was as stupid as Cersei to suggest it.

Edited November 16, 2021 by Walda