Worst plan ever made in the saga ?

[Terrorthatflapsinthenight9]

And after rearming the Faith and helping the Sparrows who are fanatics and zealots and her private war against the Tyrells, Cersei's dumbest move has to be her insulting and pissing the Iron Bank off by defering the payments on the loans from the IB to build a new expansive royal fleet just because she doesn't trust the Redwyne Fleet, and then reject and humiliate their envoy Noho Dimittis.

Of course the Iron Bank would retaliate by calling outstanding debts from all over Westeros and refusing all new loans, causing economic chaos, and by supporting Stannis.

And of course the other banks from Essos wouldn't answer the crown's pleads for new loans, they aren't going to lend any money anymore to the ones foolish and untrustworthy enough to refuse to pay and insult the most powerful and dangerous bank in the world who has ties with the Faceless Men. 

Edited November 16, 2021 by Terrorthatflapsinthenight9

[rotting sea cow]

1 hour ago, Terrorthatflapsinthenight9 said:

And after rearming the Faith and helping the Sparrows who are fanatics and zealots and her private war against the Tyrells, Cersei's dumbest move has to be her insulting and pissing the Iron Bank off by defering the payments on the loans from the IB to build a new expansive royal fleet just because she doesn't trust the Redwyne Fleet, and then reject and humiliate their envoy Noho Dimittis.

Of course the Iron Bank would retaliate by calling outstanding debts from all over Westeros and refusing all new loans, causing economic chaos, and by supporting Stannis.

And of course the other banks from Essos wouldn't answer the crown's pleads for new loans, they aren't going to lend any money anymore to the ones foolish and untrustworthy enough to refuse to pay and insult the most powerful and dangerous bank in the world who has ties with the Faceless Men. 

One could list all Cersei's plans in AFFC and we couldn't get an agreement which one was the worst. Do you remember the convoluted plot to kill Jon Snow?

 

[Ivashanko]

1 hour ago, Walda said:

Although we have not seen this go spectacularly wrong yet. 

Escorting Cersei on her Walk of Shame is all we have yet seen the Poor Fellows do, and as Brienne saw on her way to Duskendale, they had formed without royal sanction before they arrived with the bones of the martyrs in King's Landing. 

The worst thing done to Cersei, her capture, was at the hands of a score or a couple of dozen unarmed septas. The worst thing done to Osney, a scourging he came to and submitted to of his own somewhat coerced will.

The Warrior's Sons wouldn't have re-formed without Cersei's proclamation. But again, all we have seen them do is form and protect the Great Sept of Baelor. Perhaps escort Tommen to his blessing, if that has happened off-page. 

Lancel has given up Darry for them, but at the moment, the only clear consequence of that has been the annulling his marriage to Gatehouse Ami. That is a bit humiliating for Amerie, but not obviously a perilous mistake. Especially if Lyle Crakehall, a solid Lannister bannerman, becomes Castellan for the Frey widow of Darry.

We also don't know yet of any dire consequence of Ser Bonifer and the Holy Eighty-Six taking over Harrenhal.

True, history and the foreshadowing don't favor any of them. In fact, while the old-time Warrior's sons boasted great knights and sorcerers, they seem to deserve at least a brief mention in this thread. "Rebel and Burn" seems to have been their entire gameplan. 

But for this new incarnation, we have to wait and see what happens in Winds of Winter in order to have a fair appreciation of just how bad an idea it was to revive them, and whether the High Sparrow was as stupid as Cersei to suggest it.

Given the metahistorical view the average public has of Knightly Orders, I strongly suspect GRRM won't be kind to the rearming of the Faith.

But... eh. This world is very different from the one we inhabited, all those many years ago. This world is more tolerant. It is more unified and connected, which goes a long way to explain why it is more tolerant. And it is, if anything, significantly harder on the smalfolk. It might not be a bad idea for there to be a counterweight to the nobility, to have some group, somewhere, working within the confines of the system to strip the illusions off those who abuse their power.

But, as I said, there's no way this doesn't end poorly. GRRM's foreshadowing has been pretty clear.

Edited November 16, 2021 by Ivashanko

[Terrorthatflapsinthenight9]

1 hour ago, rotting sea cow said:

One could list all Cersei's plans in AFFC and we couldn't get an agreement which one was the worst. Do you remember the convoluted plot to kill Jon Snow?

 

Yes, and also the plot to kill Trystane Martell. I don't know which one is worse.

[rotting sea cow]

7 minutes ago, Terrorthatflapsinthenight9 said:

Yes, and also the plot to kill Trystane Martell. I don't know which one is worse.

Or the one to kill Bronn

 

[Groo]

300 miles of wall defended by about 700 men, few of whom are actually rangers, and somehow Mance overengineers a plan that involves most of his forces frontally attacking the gates, the only places the Watch can really defend. Dude, ignore the gates for now. Just keep swarming the wall in dozens of places and attacking the castles from the south. Keep pressing the attack like this and the Watch will collapse. And don't give me any nonsense about casualties. You're facing total annihilation by the Others and every moment you're north of the Wall your people are at risk.

[Minsc]

On 11/12/2021 at 6:40 PM, Aebram said:

My pet peeve is Renly trying to take the throne away from Stannis. Every time I reread that chapter where the two of them meet at Storm's end, I want to shout at the page, "team up!" Stannis had the law on his side, and experience at command; but Renly had charm and the common touch. If Renly had agreed to be Stannis's Hand, the two of them would have been unstoppable, and would probably have gone on to rule the Seven Kingdoms fairly well.

The "law" doesn't win you anything when you only have 5000 backing you up.  It is much more valuable to have the charisma to win over 80,000 men.  Renly just so happens to have that charisma, so he had no reason to back Stannis.  Especially, as he doesn't even believe Stannis had the law on his side.  Renly backing down to Stannis while vastly outnumbering would turn Renly into a joke in the eyes of the realm.

[Thandros]

On 11/15/2021 at 11:09 PM, Ivashanko said:

 

I must be misremembering, wasn't Rob's plan to keep Tywin occupied in the north so the Baratheons' could crush the Lannisters in the south? That's not the worst plan in the world. Tywin would be forced to flee back to his territory and the Baratheons would have no choice but to invade, which would give the North time to prepare and perhaps to make peace.

That is exactly right and it would have worked in hindsight with Stannis. But the plan would have been made with Renly in mind who is absolutely hostile to Robb. If it goes perfectly Tywin has a large army in the Westerlands and Renly still has his massive Reach and Stormlander Army in King's Landing. Robb Stark is stuck in the middle of two larger armies both hostile to him. Effectively Robb is the same position at the start of ACOK but the armies on his flanks are larger and all he has gained is Harrenhall and some loot and plunder. His only hope is to assume Renly goes after Tywin and Tywin is able to grind him down enough having lost one of the better opportunities to diminish Renly's forces.

[Angel Eyes]

On 11/12/2021 at 7:40 PM, Aebram said:

My pet peeve is Renly trying to take the throne away from Stannis. Every time I reread that chapter where the two of them meet at Storm's end, I want to shout at the page, "team up!" Stannis had the law on his side, and experience at command; but Renly had charm and the common touch. If Renly had agreed to be Stannis's Hand, the two of them would have been unstoppable, and would probably have gone on to rule the Seven Kingdoms fairly well.

On a technical basis, Renly is Stannis's heir since women can't inherit the throne per the Great Council of 101 AC unless designated heir as Rhaenyra was by her father Viserys I.

[Ivashanko]

22 hours ago, Thandros said:

That is exactly right and it would have worked in hindsight with Stannis. But the plan would have been made with Renly in mind who is absolutely hostile to Robb. If it goes perfectly Tywin has a large army in the Westerlands and Renly still has his massive Reach and Stormlander Army in King's Landing. Robb Stark is stuck in the middle of two larger armies both hostile to him. Effectively Robb is the same position at the start of ACOK but the armies on his flanks are larger and all he has gained is Harrenhall and some loot and plunder. His only hope is to assume Renly goes after Tywin and Tywin is able to grind him down enough having lost one of the better opportunities to diminish Renly's forces.

 

I think Renly has to go after Tywin first. The Starks with their presumptions of separatism are no real threat to Renly's bases of support, but Tywin is.

Renly takes King's Landing and fights it out with the Lannister armies. The North withdraws, fortifies, and leaves its options open.

Admittedly it is not the best plan ever, but it is workable given the situation. Robb cannot stay north of the Neck without losing the support of many of his vassals: the Riverlanders for obvious reasons and presumably many of the Northern lords because Robb swore an oath of overlordship and cannot casually break it. His retreating also destroys any chance the Vale declares for him.

Robb also cannot declare for either Stannis or Renly until he knows which one will win their personal game of thrones. If he declares for one and that one loses it is a disaster. If he declares for the Baratheon, regardless of who wins, he effectively declares for Renly. Stannis would never forgive him.

He needs to remain a credible threat in the field and wait for things in the south to finish up. The reason this plan failed wasn't because of anything any southern army did, but rather because Robb's capital fell to Theon's reavers. The second Winterfell was taken Robb's enemies began to stir.

[Damsel in Distress]

Worst plan ever made in the saga ?

The plan to rescue Arya is the worst plan ever made in the saga.  It would have been better if it had ended as a plan and not gotten off the ground but Bowen Marsh found out too late.  It's also the worst operation ever in the saga and proved Jon's poor leadership abilities

1. Poor intelligence.  Arya was not in Winterfell.
2. Consequences.  House Bolton would retaliate and demand Arya back. 
3. Conflict at the wall.  The mission violated the vows.  Jon disgraced himself and got the watch involved in a conflict.
4. Broke guest rights. Jon's man, Mance Rayder, murdered the guards and servants of his host.

[WhatAnArtist!]

With my current reread of Dance, I'll put forward the suggestion of Dany's "plan" to rule Meereen, which seems to boil down to "If I'm a really nice person maybe they'll just leave me alone". She receives good advice from several people around her - Barristan urges her to send the army out to fight their enemies in the field because they don't have the food to survive a siege, Daario urges her to massacre the slaver families after luring them in so she has no enemies inside the city, Skahaz urges her not to marry Hizdahr because he is almost certainly one of the Sons of the Harpy; a few people urge her to unleash her dragons on her enemies like a true Targaryen would have, since they're her best tool; even King Cleon urges her to join with him to help take down Yunkai, their common foe who has been plotting against them the whole time.

She ignores all of it, because it would violate her plan on being "a really nice person" and just sitting in her Pyramid and sort of.... hoping it all just goes away...? I don't even know if it can be called a plan. She rejects every single proposed plan that could have put her in a better situation, and her own "plan" seems to be to throw away every possible advantage she has and instead severely expose herself and her people to danger from all sides because she wasn't willing to make the hard choices. Being all nice and diplomatic and patient might work if you're in the shoes of someone like Doran Martell or Rodrik Harlaw, but it doesn't work when you're surrounded by enemies in the most hostile place in the known world as Slaver's Bay is.

[SeanF]

1 hour ago, WhatAnArtist! said:

With my current reread of Dance, I'll put forward the suggestion of Dany's "plan" to rule Meereen, which seems to boil down to "If I'm a really nice person maybe they'll just leave me alone". She receives good advice from several people around her - Barristan urges her to send the army out to fight their enemies in the field because they don't have the food to survive a siege, Daario urges her to massacre the slaver families after luring them in so she has no enemies inside the city, Skahaz urges her not to marry Hizdahr because he is almost certainly one of the Sons of the Harpy; a few people urge her to unleash her dragons on her enemies like a true Targaryen would have, since they're her best tool; even King Cleon urges her to join with him to help take down Yunkai, their common foe who has been plotting against them the whole time.

She ignores all of it, because it would violate her plan on being "a really nice person" and just sitting in her Pyramid and sort of.... hoping it all just goes away...? I don't even know if it can be called a plan. She rejects every single proposed plan that could have put her in a better situation, and her own "plan" seems to be to throw away every possible advantage she has and instead severely expose herself and her people to danger from all sides because she wasn't willing to make the hard choices. Being all nice and diplomatic and patient might work if you're in the shoes of someone like Doran Martell or Rodrik Harlaw, but it doesn't work when you're surrounded by enemies in the most hostile place in the known world as Slaver's Bay is.

She ought to have burned Yunkai to the ground, the moment she discovered the Wise Masters were intriguing against her and had resumed slaving.  Which the Daenerys of earlier books would have done. And while Cleon was loathsome, he posed no danger to Meereen.  She acts very out of character, for most of ADWD.

Not fighting the slaver coalition in the open field was probably sensible, given their advantage in numbers.  As at the end, they’re dropping like flies outside Meereen, after camping in a plague spot of their own making.

I don’t think it was necessary to massacre all the slaver families, but they ought to have been asset-stripped at the outset.

Edited November 19, 2021 by SeanF

[WhatAnArtist!]

10 minutes ago, SeanF said:

She ought to have burned Yunkai to the ground

I don't know if this would have helped much, since Astapor rose up again after she left. What she needed to was conquer it - take the city, kill or expel the slavers, station some Unsullied and sellswords in the city, and add it to her little empire in Slaver's Bay. If all three cities were controlled by her and her soldiers, she'd be in a much better situation. Dany's problem was that she didn't fully commit - she needed to embrace being a Targaryen and emulate Aegon by conquering enough to make her too powerful to dislodge. Simply taking Meereen wasn't enough, she needed all three cities if she wanted to be self-sustaining.

[Thandros]

15 hours ago, Ivashanko said:

 

I think Renly has to go after Tywin first. The Starks with their presumptions of separatism are no real threat to Renly's bases of support, but Tywin is.

Renly takes King's Landing and fights it out with the Lannister armies. The North withdraws, fortifies, and leaves its options open.

Admittedly it is not the best plan ever, but it is workable given the situation. Robb cannot stay north of the Neck without losing the support of many of his vassals: the Riverlanders for obvious reasons and presumably many of the Northern lords because Robb swore an oath of overlordship and cannot casually break it. His retreating also destroys any chance the Vale declares for him.

Robb also cannot declare for either Stannis or Renly until he knows which one will win their personal game of thrones. If he declares for one and that one loses it is a disaster. If he declares for the Baratheon, regardless of who wins, he effectively declares for Renly. Stannis would never forgive him.

He needs to remain a credible threat in the field and wait for things in the south to finish up. The reason this plan failed wasn't because of anything any southern army did, but rather because Robb's capital fell to Theon's reavers. The second Winterfell was taken Robb's enemies began to stir.

Unless Tyrion and Cersei's plans with Tommen work out and Tommen ends up in the Westerlands. All of that happening is rather unlikely and that leaves Tywin as a directionless rebel with no cause diminishing manpower and resources and extremely limited ability to bring in reinforcements from anywhere given that Renly would control the sea of the Reach by that point. Tywin also has no future to count upon given his only available heir of his name is a two year old girl if him and Kevan kick the bucket. Unless he goes into Genna's brood but two of them are also prisoners including the eldest, one we know nothing about and only the youngest is known to be safe. With Tommen Tywin can present a threat to Renly ideologically and could attempt to swing alliances his way. Without him Tywin is out of friends and doesn't really have a cause to motivate his men. Renly could leave him for a while to see if his forces simply break apart and he can capitalize by accepting Westlander defections. Particularly if he's able to get his hands on some Westermen captives from Robb Stark.

The other thing to consider is where Renly's army is. King's Landing. To directly attack Tywin he has to march all the way back through the Reach and then up the ocean road. Both other routes to the Westerlands lead through the Riverlands and Robb Stark would probably feel either compelled or advantageous to harass his flank if Renly tried to march along the Gold Road. But Robb Stark's separatism does represent a threat to Renly's power base. The longer Robb Stark resists Renly the more his ideas of breaking up the Seven Kingdoms would take root. If Renly leaves Robb alone for a year to defeat Tywin (and given the defences Tywin may be able to rely on it could easily take longer) then Robb will have a year to consolidate his state and bed down the ideas of an independent North and Riverlands as well as encouraging the Vale to join them. But after Renly would have taken King's Landing the Northern Kingdom was in shambles. Large swaths of the North were effectively out of his control and he'd lost his lines of communication to the North. A quick strike and some victories could unravel Robb's entire kingdom particularly if the Freys or Boltons decide to defect and a relatively gentle hand could help keep the North in line freeing him up engage the more dug in Lannisters on more favourable terms.

On the other hand Tywin can gain advantages by attacking the Northerners in the Riverlands. He can free captives Robb holds helping improve his internal politics and if Renly takes a hard line and Robb suffers defeats encourage defections if it appears the choice is allying with the Lannisters or dying fighting Renly. It's quite reasonable to assume that Tywin has a larger army than Robb does in this situation.

[Willam Stark]

55 minutes ago, Thandros said:

Tywin also has no future to count upon given his only available heir of his name is a two year old girl if him and Kevan kick the bucket.

He had Tyrion, Lancel, Willem and Martyn as Lannister males available at that time.

Martyn is still available at the current time in-universe, but it doesn't matter now since Cersei became the lady of Casterly Rock in her own right. Tommen and Myrcella are above him in the succession line, but they will die soon, therefore he has good chances inherit Casterly Rock since Tyrion is a kinslayer.

The Westermen will never follow him.

 

[Brynden"Bloodraven" Rivers]

11 hours ago, WhatAnArtist! said:

With my current reread of Dance, I'll put forward the suggestion of Dany's "plan" to rule Meereen, which seems to boil down to "If I'm a really nice person maybe they'll just leave me alone". She receives good advice from several people around her - Barristan urges her to send the army out to fight their enemies in the field because they don't have the food to survive a siege, Daario urges her to massacre the slaver families after luring them in so she has no enemies inside the city, Skahaz urges her not to marry Hizdahr because he is almost certainly one of the Sons of the Harpy; a few people urge her to unleash her dragons on her enemies like a true Targaryen would have, since they're her best tool; even King Cleon urges her to join with him to help take down Yunkai, their common foe who has been plotting against them the whole time.

She ignores all of it, because it would violate her plan on being "a really nice person" and just sitting in her Pyramid and sort of.... hoping it all just goes away...? I don't even know if it can be called a plan. She rejects every single proposed plan that could have put her in a better situation, and her own "plan" seems to be to throw away every possible advantage she has and instead severely expose herself and her people to danger from all sides because she wasn't willing to make the hard choices. Being all nice and diplomatic and patient might work if you're in the shoes of someone like Doran Martell or Rodrik Harlaw, but it doesn't work when you're surrounded by enemies in the most hostile place in the known world as Slaver's Bay is.

Definitely agree, she should have gone full dragon on the Yunkish and like anyone who started slaving. She also should have allied with Cleon.

[Arthur Peres]

On 11/12/2021 at 5:52 PM, The Jingo said:

Doran's "Master Plan" of getting revenge by sitting around doing absolutely nothing until all of his enemies die of other causes. 

you're making it sound better than it was...

Doran didn't just sit around... he send his brother and son to certain death in exchange of absolute nothing.

[EggBlue]

28 minutes ago, Arthur Peres said:

you're making it sound better than it was...

Doran didn't just sit around... he send his brother and son to certain death in exchange of absolute nothing.

come on now! be fair... how should poor Doran have known Oberyn who was going to a WEDDING CERMONY ends up voluntarily dueling the Mountain?!!!

and as for Quentyn...sigh... your absolutely right.. Doran did send the poor boy all alone into the Dragon's pit, though he never suggested taming actual dragons...

you know... I think Doran's stupid move of sending Quentyn himself and without a sufficient number of companions might come from his misjudgment of his son's character on top of his too much caution... Quentyn was terrible in bringing Dany the marriage proposal. since he had only two knights with him there was no presentation of Dorne's power and since Q was awkward there was no way of some good seduction or persuasion... I think Doran looked at himself with Melario and Oberyan with his ladies and thought Quentyn would be as successful!!

Edited November 19, 2021 by EggBlue

[EggBlue]

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Edited November 19, 2021 by EggBlue
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