Worst plan ever made in the saga ?

[Craving Peaches]

34 minutes ago, EggBlue said:

I'm still fairly certain that Rhaegar's plan was the worst....whatever it was. just look at the result!

I agree. Unless it is confirmed Jon's conception was needed to save the world or something Rhaegar's plan will go down as one of the stupidest in my opinion. Aside from his awful military strategy when dealing with the rebels, what was he expecting when he ran off with the already-betrothed daughter of a great house?

Rhaegar's Plan in his mind:

1. Lyanna Stark is needed for my prophecy baby. To seduce her, I will pass over my wife and crown her as Queen of Love and Beauty, no one will care about this even though she's already betrothed.

2. I'll run off with Lyanna, leaving behind my wife and kids, still with no thought to what her relatives would do.

(Oh no a massive war has started In part due to my actions!)

3. I will conceive child with Lyanna.

(Now I'll deal with those pesky rebels, except I'll make sure to completely squander my advantageous battlefield position and then die in combat with Lyanna's scorned fiancé.)

4. Lyanna gives birth to prophecy baby. Profit...except I'm dead now. So is most of my family. Oh well!

[sifth]

3 hours ago, Nevets said:

Darry could have been the glue holding things together, and his death caused it to fall apart.  Viserys was probably less than stable even then.

You know Doran still planned to marry his daughter all the way up to the first book. He even mentioned how he planned for the two of them to meet, in AFFC. So that doesn’t make much sense.

My favorite theory when it comes to Dany, is that Illyrio gave Dany her eggs, with the intention for them to hatch. I have no idea if that one will end up being true or not, but it's the one I find most believable.

Edited September 7, 2022 by sifth

[Angel Eyes]

6 hours ago, Nevets said:

Darry could have been the glue holding things together, and his death caused it to fall apart.  Viserys was probably less than stable even then.

And yet Doran wanted to marry Arianne to him. But he couldn't be bothered into molding Viserys into a suitable husband for some reason or another (never even bothered to set up a correspondence).

[Arthur Peres]

18 hours ago, Terrorthatflapsinthenight9 said:

The Targaryens are the only visible option to really punish the Lannisters since Robert and Jon Arryn showed no sign of intending to punish the Lannisters at all.  

 

At the time of A Dance of Dragons, sure. At the time of A Clash of Kings Doran had plenty of options of how to screw with the Lannisters and actually take revenge on Tywin.

Now he is in this weird position where everybody that was involved in his family death is now dead, Aerys, Rhaegar, Lorch, Gregor, Tywin, Kevan and even Robert, Jon, Ned and Hoster are all dead, but he keeps saying that he wants revenge while pointing out that the current Lannisters had nothing to do with Elia's death.

At the same time he's plotting to overthrow Tommen in favor of Daenerys. What does he think will happen to Tommen after that?

Doran's plan beyond being stupid, do not go along with what he wants. He and Balon really are a pair running neck and neck about who is dumber.

18 hours ago, Terrorthatflapsinthenight9 said:

Also you have to remember that the Martells and dornish had great influence in King's Landing court and had privileges that no other kingdom and great houses had after marrying the Targaryens. 

This was during Daeron's reing.

During Aerys reing this does not seems to be the case considering how he talked about Elia.

The Martells have all the reasons in the world to hate the Targeryans as much as they hate the Lannisters. The worst thing a Dornish ruller could do is to support the Lannisters, the second is to support a Targeryan. Doran is doing the first as a front and the second as a plot...The more time I think about his plan the worst it gets.

[csuszka1948]

On 11/14/2021 at 6:57 PM, Angel Eyes said:

Oh, so many, and this is just a few:

Ned and Catelyn (especially the former) for trusting Littlefinger; I'd at least be wary of the guy who challenged my brother to a duel for my now-wife's hand.

 

I think Cat believing LF's story about the dagger was entirely reasonable, because LF had really no apparent reason to lie and had risked losing everything by doing it.

If Ned arrested Tyrion when he arrived to KL, LF' lie would have been discovered and he would have gained both Lannisters and Starks as his enemies and he would have surely lost his position and even his head might have gotten lopped off. 

On 11/14/2021 at 6:57 PM, Angel Eyes said:

Anything with Doran Martell, but special mention goes to leaving Quentyn without the necessary means of accomplishing his mission to Meereen, leading to Quentyn getting desparate enough to try taming a dragon and, well, roast frog.

 

This seems stupid, but Dany would have probably accepted the marriage offer if she didn't want to stay in Slaver's Bay, and nobody could foresee that Dany is about to do that.

[csuszka1948]

On 9/7/2022 at 3:41 PM, Craving Peaches said:

I agree. Unless it is confirmed Jon's conception was needed to save the world or something Rhaegar's plan will go down as one of the stupidest in my opinion. Aside from his awful military strategy when dealing with the rebels, what was he expecting when he ran off with the already-betrothed daughter of a great house?

Rhaegar's Plan in his mind:

1. Lyanna Stark is needed for my prophecy baby. To seduce her, I will pass over my wife and crown her as Queen of Love and Beauty, no one will care about this even though she's already betrothed.

 

The problem is that we know almost nothing about what exactly happened and motivated Rhaegar or why he remained in hiding.

Personally, I don't think he was planning to seduce her in the Tourney of Harrenhal. He might have fallen in love with her and wanted to give her a token of appreciation as the Knight of the Laughing Tree, but it was only after learning that Elia can have no more children (and probably seeing Dany in the House of Undying and believing her to be his Visenya) that he decided to run off with his love. 

On 9/7/2022 at 3:41 PM, Craving Peaches said:

2. I'll run off with Lyanna, leaving behind my wife and kids, still with no thought to what her relatives would do.

(Oh no a massive war has started In part due to my actions!)

 

This is a good example. How do we know that he or Lyanna didn't send a message?

It seems pretty commonly believed (but not really said openly, since Robert is King) that Rhaegar and Lyanna must have loved each other.

The simple truth is that even if Rickard has received such a message and even if he approved the union (the second is unlikely imo), he would have gone to KL to free Brandon, died, and by then it was too late to stop it.

On 9/7/2022 at 3:41 PM, Craving Peaches said:

3. I will conceive child with Lyanna.

(Now I'll deal with those pesky rebels, except I'll make sure to completely squander my advantageous battlefield position and then die in combat with Lyanna's scorned fiancé.)

4. Lyanna gives birth to prophecy baby. Profit...except I'm dead now. So is most of my family. Oh well!

 

I think that Rhaegar believed that it is necessary to save the world because *prophecy* (the scrolls he has found when he was young, that prompted him to become a warrior).

After all, he probably (I am not 100% sure, but the wording implies so) saw Dany in the House of Undying with her 3 dragons and believed that her third child, Visenya will be the one who brings back dragons into the world, which will be necessary to save them from the coming darkness. He probably realized that 'the prince that was promised' is probably a princess ('no one looked for a girl') before Aemon did.

 

Anyway, I think plans based on prophecies and visions - such as Rhaegar's actions, Stannis' decision to engage Renly (which looks one of the worst decisions without the benefit of hindsight) or even Stannis' attack on KL (which he believed to be successful because he averted the vision that Mel saw in which he lost to Renly) - shouldn't really be on this list.

[csuszka1948]

Yes, I wanted to give a mention to LF lying to Catelyn about the dagger (yes, I know it's a plot device just like Stannis' pretty much unexplainable absence in AGOT). LF didn't have much to gain by lying and had risked losing everything by doing it.

If Ned arrested Tyrion when he arrived to KL - which seemed by far the most likely scenario in the moment -, LF' lie would have been discovered and he would have gained both Lannisters and Starks as his enemies and he would have surely lost his position and even his head might have gotten lopped off. 

Edited June 25, 2023 by csuszka1948

[Castellan]

On 11/15/2021 at 11:53 AM, Angel Eyes said:

 

Doran in general baffles me for a number of reasons

I think I have finally come to the conclusion that there are many Dorans in the world, but they don't usually inherit a princedom. The frustration is his combination of being rather sensitive and humane combined with absolute failure to act or to train his children for their role. Hmmm I just realised he is a bit like Hamlet.

[csuszka1948]

On 9/7/2022 at 12:47 PM, sifth said:

The Doran alliance plot, feels like the biggest retcon in the entire series and doesn't make a whole lot of sense. The fact that he would do nothing to protect them, during their childhood, despite wanting to help them regain their throne, just doesn't make sense.

 

Doran is cautious and fears he would get caught doing this.

Also, I am not sure that Viserys and/or Dany didn't spend time in Dorne or were never supported by them. GRRM really seemed to play into the whole 'no lemon trees in Braavos' thing in AFFC/ADWD (I think it was just a writing error before), when the Dornish plan was introduced.

[Alester Florent]

Balon Greyjoy's plan to attack the North has its flaws, but the real cake-taker in my view was his previous plan to secede from a united Seven Kingdoms apropos of nothing. All he accomplished was to lose all his sons, one way or another. I can only assume the only reason Robert didn't take his head was that he thought anyone would be an improvement over a blockhead like Balon and therefore more dangerous.

It speaks greatly to Euron's self-restraint and presumed long-term planning that he didn't cut Balon's throat immediately.

 

But elsewhere, Vargo Hoat's plan to insure against Roose's betrayal of Robb by cutting off Jaime's hand was absolute dogshit too.

[csuszka1948]

2 minutes ago, Alester Florent said:

Balon Greyjoy's plan to attack the North has its flaws, but the real cake-taker in my view was his previous plan to secede from a united Seven Kingdoms apropos of nothing. All he accomplished was to lose all his sons, one way or another. I can only assume the only reason Robert didn't take his head was that he thought anyone would be an improvement over a blockhead like Balon and therefore more dangerous.

 

My problem is that Robert for some reason let Balon rebuild the Iron Fleet.  

2 minutes ago, Alester Florent said:

It speaks greatly to Euron's self-restraint and presumed long-term planning that he didn't cut Balon's throat immediately.

 

LOL, I love this.

I think from all of Quellon's sons it's Euron who is most similar to his father, both find the 'Old Way' foolish and despicable, it's just that Euron is a megalomaniacal psycho who wants to take advantage from it. 

[csuszka1948]

On 9/7/2022 at 1:37 PM, Daena the Defiant said:

Yes!

But, I would counterpropose (and this is drifting off-topic) *another* colossal retcon is the Maggy the Frog prophecy which has sent Cersei into a death spiral of paranoia and meglomania all because of her perception that Margaery is the "Younger, More Beautiful Queen" (the YMBQ), when waaaaaaaaaaaaaay back in the series, it seemed that Sansa should have been recognized as the potential YMBQ and *that* should have triggered Cersei, far, far earlier. 

 

Yes, this is much more annoying. The Dornish plot can be somewhat explained away by Doran's torn nature, but Cersei trying to 'help' Sansa in her own way in AGOT and ACOk and even being indifferent to Margaery in ASOS and only starting to fear the prophecy after Joff's death makes little sense.

The worst part of it that Cersei's most important actions - to not trust the Tyrells, to refuse payment to the IB, to name Aurane Waters as his admiral, to reallow the Faith Militant, to frame Margaery and get imprisoned over it - could have been explained by her arrogance, her lack of foresight, her belief (due to the fact that there was a Gardener coin in Tyrion's cell) that the Tyrells are plotting against her and seeing Tommen 'manipulated' by Margaery (who is simply kind to her) in action.

Some of her most crazy actions (such as sending people to murder Trystane or Jon or Bronn) could be removed, though.

[csuszka1948]

On 11/18/2021 at 12:16 AM, Minsc said:

The "law" doesn't win you anything when you only have 5000 backing you up.  It is much more valuable to have the charisma to win over 80,000 men.  Renly just so happens to have that charisma, so he had no reason to back Stannis.  Especially, as he doesn't even believe Stannis had the law on his side.  Renly backing down to Stannis while vastly outnumbering would turn Renly into a joke in the eyes of the realm.

 

Honestly, I really love that some people bring 'Renly not backing down' up, because it really shows they lack reading comprehension.

They think Renly should somehow foresee a magic assassin coming to kill him. 

[Alester Florent]

2 minutes ago, csuszka1948 said:

Honestly, I really love that some people bring 'Renly not backing down' up, because it really shows they lack reading comprehension.

They think Renly should somehow foresee a magic assassin coming to kill him. 

Any time my sister infringes my perceived rights I send a magic assassin to murder her until she backs down. She's got the message now. I just assumed everyone did this, and therefore Renly should have known better.

[csuszka1948]

On 11/19/2021 at 7:08 AM, WhatAnArtist! said:

With my current reread of Dance, I'll put forward the suggestion of Dany's "plan" to rule Meereen, which seems to boil down to "If I'm a really nice person maybe they'll just leave me alone". She receives good advice from several people around her - Barristan urges her to send the army out to fight their enemies in the field because they don't have the food to survive a siege, Daario urges her to massacre the slaver families after luring them in so she has no enemies inside the city, Skahaz urges her not to marry Hizdahr because he is almost certainly one of the Sons of the Harpy; a few people urge her to unleash her dragons on her enemies like a true Targaryen would have, since they're her best tool; even King Cleon urges her to join with him to help take down Yunkai, their common foe who has been plotting against them the whole time.

She ignores all of it, because it would violate her plan on being "a really nice person" and just sitting in her Pyramid and sort of.... hoping it all just goes away...? I don't even know if it can be called a plan. She rejects every single proposed plan that could have put her in a better situation, and her own "plan" seems to be to throw away every possible advantage she has and instead severely expose herself and her people to danger from all sides because she wasn't willing to make the hard choices. Being all nice and diplomatic and patient might work if you're in the shoes of someone like Doran Martell or Rodrik Harlaw, but it doesn't work when you're surrounded by enemies in the most hostile place in the known world as Slaver's Bay is.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Dany isn't necessarily wrong not to engage the slavers - who numerically outnumber her - in the field. She has enough food and her enemies are dying from an illness. She also knows that Hizdahr might be a Harpy, but she believes (and isn't necessarily wrong) that she can get the Harpies on her side.

That said, her arc in ADWD is pretty similar to what Ned does in AGOT.

He tells Cersei he knows her secret before sending away his daughters (just like Dany tells the Green Grace, the Harpy, that she is unwilling to kill child hostages), he sends away his own men on different missions, he refuses Renly's offer because he doesn't want to disturb children's sleep and trusts in LF when he explains him why Stannis would take away his job and livelihood.

Both Dany and Ned display an extreme aversity to violence - Ned has PTSD from the Rebellion and seeing dead children wrapped in cloaks, Dany is afraid of having the 'taint' and that her dragons killed an innocent girl and she is a mother of monsters.

Both of them tend to seek compromise (Ned believing that he is one of equals in the small councils, Dany trying to treat everyone equally and listen to everyone) whenever possible. I also feel both of them are making sensible moves considering their violence-averse approach and show occasional pragmatism (Dany closing the city from refugees when the pale mare comes, the problem is that their approach itself is wrong.

Dany gets to escape on a dragon when the trap (although it's not clear who placed it) is closing around her and can reevaluate her choices, but Ned doesn't get a second chance.

That said, we see that the other side of their actions: the kindness and fairness they have showed inspires people and their legacies live on even in their absence: Barristan, the Meereenese freedmen and the Unsullied overthrow Hizdahr and fight in Dany's name and for her cause, while the Northmen want to avenge Ned's death and save his daughter.

Edited June 25, 2023 by csuszka1948

[csuszka1948]

On 11/19/2021 at 8:37 AM, SeanF said:

She ought to have burned Yunkai to the ground, the moment she discovered the Wise Masters were intriguing against her and had resumed slaving.  Which the Daenerys of earlier books would have done. And while Cleon was loathsome, he posed no danger to Meereen.  She acts very out of character, for most of ADWD.

 

Because she learns that her father was mad and that her dragon has killed an innocent child, she thinks she is no better than the hated Usurper's dogs and has to cope with this relevation. She becomes as averse to violence as Ned.

 

As for Yunkai, it seems a retcon from ASOS or a remnant of the scrapped 5-year gap.

Yunkai has lost most of its wealth and its slaves, and most of the Wise Masters probably didn't work a day during their lives. How the hell are they capable of restarting slaving? How to they hire mercenaries and do not end up getting sacked (when Dany and Astapor - the anti-slaver states) seem in a clearly superior position? How do they have the money to invite so many sellswords? Why do they lead the slaver coalition and not New Ghis, which provides significantly more soldiers?

I don't think it makes much sense that Yunkai - which should have been hit even harder economically than Astapor or Meereen - is able to recover that quickly.

We even hear that Tyrion's Yunkai slavemaster have kept certain slaves for years, which shouldn't be possible, he should have lost them in ASOS...

On 11/19/2021 at 8:37 AM, SeanF said:

Not fighting the slaver coalition in the open field was probably sensible, given their advantage in numbers.  As at the end, they’re dropping like flies outside Meereen, after camping in a plague spot of their own making.

 

Yes, it's understandable without knowing about the brewing slave rebellion in Volantis.

Poisoning the wells (as Tyrion thought) and bringing out the dragons (as weapons and tools in a potential negotiation table) as Brown Ben proposed would have also helped though.

On 11/19/2021 at 8:37 AM, SeanF said:

I don’t think it was necessary to massacre all the slaver families, but they ought to have been asset-stripped at the outset.

 

Yes, I agree. I feel 'redistribution of wealth' is bit of a revolutionary relevation for this age though.

[csuszka1948]

On 11/20/2021 at 5:13 AM, WhatAnArtist! said:

I just reread the chapter where Dany rejects him, and I really felt bad for Quentyn. I could relate to him somewhat. The fact that Dany even thought how much hotter one of his companions was, and that she wishes he was the prince instead, was both hilarious and pitiable. 

 

 

 

Yes, but that's not really why Dany rejects him.

She only didn't marry him because she was planning to stay in Meereen, and Quentyn couldn't help her with that.

Edited June 25, 2023 by csuszka1948

[csuszka1948]

On 8/9/2022 at 12:22 AM, Angel Eyes said:

I think this is one of the rare times GRRM dropped the ball on his plots since it's so offhand when the culprit is finally fingered and everyone's forgotten about it... unless he wanted to subvert expectations by leaving certain plots unsolved because some crimes are cold cases in real life.

Plus the show is actually less stupid with Tyrion where he outright says he wouldn't have done something like that; to quote him, "what sort of imbecile arms an assassin with his own blade?"

 

Yes, I agree. The original culprit must have been Jaime but it was retconned.

I think Catelyn kidnapping Tyrion after he recognized her is actually a brilliant move, she just didn't expect everyone else to act stupidly (LF to lie for no reason, Lysa for lie for no apparent reason).

[csuszka1948]

On 8/9/2022 at 12:14 AM, Leonardo Abreu said:

Anything related to the valyrian steel dagger is stupid.

Joffrey: I’ll secretly order the murder of my father’s best friend’s son using a dagger from his own treasure!

Catspaw: I was paid in advance and given a priceless dagger to perform a high profile and risky assassination. I’ll carry on with it instead of pocketing the money and selling the dagger!

Littlefinger: I’ll lie about the dagger being Tyrion’s and cross my fingers the Starks don’t ask around and easily discover that Bob was the owner.

 

 

 

This is the most ridiculous and contrived part, I agree.

On 8/9/2022 at 12:14 AM, Leonardo Abreu said:

Catelyn: I’ll simply kidnap the imp, nobody likes him anyway. His father seems like the forgiving type.

 

 

 

Cat only kidnapped Tyrion after he recognized her. She certainly didn't think Tywin is a kidnapping type, she just wanted to avoid alerting Cersei&Jaime (who she thought were behind murder of Jon Arryn and possibly pushing Bran from the window) that she was in the south, get one hostage and corraborating evidence from Lysa. It's just she didn't expect that (insanely) Lysa and LF would both lie to her, that Ned would resign as Hand on the day the news of the kidnapping arrive.

She might have expected Tywin to react violently, but Tywin's violent overreaction would have ended very badly for him (attacking king's party) if not for Robert's unexpected death. 

This post explains pretty well (although I am not sure about certain parts of it):

On 8/9/2022 at 12:14 AM, Leonardo Abreu said:

Tyrion: I could come clean and say the dagger was not mine, but it is much cooler to just say I never bet against my family and leave it at it.

 

 

 

Tyrion wouldn't come clean anyways. Saying that the dagger is not his is just an unproven claim and Cat would believe LF over him, but saying that he never bets against his brother is actually something that can be checked.

Even if Cat believed the dagger didn't belong to him, he was still a useful hostage (at least so Cat believed - and it was true to a degree, that's why Jaime refused to kill Ned) and might have known something about why Jon Arryn was murdered or Bran was pushed. 

Edited June 25, 2023 by csuszka1948

[csuszka1948]

On 8/9/2022 at 11:54 AM, Craving Peaches said:

Whoever they were trying to kill with those poisoned locusts. Unless the target was Strong Belwas after all it doesn't make sense. They must know Daenerys doesn't like that food.

 

That's why it might have been the Shavepate, trying to kill Hizdahr, blame it on Quentyn and break the peace and get back to his position.

On the other hand, it could have been Hizdahr behind it. He wasn't particulary intelligent and he might have believed he can get away with it and can prompt Dany to eat locusts if he nicely asks her.