What Robb Stark Should Have Done: Analysis of Campaign Mistakes

[Brynden"Bloodraven" Rivers]

This was a bloody long post. I'm planning on making these for Stannis, Daenerys and Jon. 

 The Cregan Stark Strat: Not marched South with the full force of the North

Much like his ancestor Cregan Stark, Robb should have focused on the harvest. The Stark words “Winter Is Coming” should have been his main priority. With winter approaching, to ensure his men didn’t starve, he should have prioritized getting as much food into the granaries as possible. This doesn’t mean that he shouldn’t have sent any men south. Again drawing on Cregan Stark’s battle plans, he should have sent a force of greybeards, old men and second sons which would consist of around 7,000~10,000 men, mainly mounted. The commander of this host would most likely be either Rickard Karstark or Roose Bolton. Robb Stark would stay at Winterfell, supervising the harvest and ensuring every holdfast, castles, and village in the North had enough food to get them through winter. The Lannisters posed no real threat to the North as long as Moat Cailin was held by the Galbarts and Tallharts. When the question of pledging allegiance, 

Robb should have waited until either Renly or Stannis died and pledged his support to the other. The campaign in the riverlands plays out the exact same way because Whispering Wood was planned by the Blackfish who takes command of the riverlander host. Here, instead of sending the Northern infantry to face Tywin at the Green Fork, a small group of Riverlander infantry from Frey and Mallister face Tywin at the Green Fork. This leads Tywin to smash the Frey and Mallister foot but Karstark and Tully capture Jaime. But one key difference would be that Brynden Blackfish and Rickard Karstark would most likely outpace Tywin’s host to Harrenhal and ambush him, leading to the massacre of Tywin’s army and his death. This means Stannis wins the Battle of the Blackwater with help from Tully and Stark forces and sends Sansa home. This also means that Balon never attacks the North and Robb Stark is heralded as the best lord since Cregan. This minimizes the destruction in the riverlands, ensures Robb and Catelyn don’t die, the Bolton usurpation never happens, Robb’s host marches North to defeat Mance Rayder and Stannis has an uneasy tenure until Daenerys and the Others arrive. This is the best possible option and has the best possible outcome for Robb, the Starks and the North.

 

The Catelyn Strat:Not Send Theon to Negotiate With Balon

This isn’t the best possible outcome for Robb but it gives him much more security than he enjoyed in A Storm of Swords. I believe the best possible option for Robb as an envoy to Balon would be Roose Bolton. To get Rickard Karstark away from Jaime Lannister, he would give Karstark command  of Bolton’s army. Robb also doesn’t trust Bolton so if Balon does take Roose hostage, it kills two birds with one stone. But I believe Robb will send a reminder that he holds Theon entirely at his mercy. Balon will be forced to attack the Westerlands and they may even take Casterly Rock which means Tywin is basically fucked. But the Blackwater doesn’t change unless Robb and Brynden choose to communicate better with Edmure. But with Balon’s ironmen holding most of the Westerlands and Robb in control of Harrenhal, Tywin and Mace Tyrell cannot effectively launch a counterattack on the Westerlands. They are forced to take the gold road which wastes a lot of time. Robb has defenses in place and is able to hold onto the Westerlands and Riverlands for much longer. The worst-case scenario in this situation is that Tywin breaks the grip on the Westerlands but all of the gold and silver has been looted by the ironborn and most of the mines have been destroyed. They leave the Westerlands in absolute disarray and destruction while Pinkmaiden, Wayfarer’s Rest, Harrenhal and Maidenpool are fortified by Robb to prevent Tywin from crossing. I believe that Tywin will continue to persist to attack the Riverlands but will be repelled by Robb. Robb will “win” against Tywin as long as he marries a Frey girl and he definitely will because he never invades the Westerlands in this so Jeyne Westerling is either killed or is a salt wife to some random Ironborn raider. The Riverlands, North and Iron Islands secede from the Seven Kingdoms and Tywin can’t do shit about it. Then, when Oberyn and the Martell host arrive for Joffrey’s wedding, and both Joffrey and Tywin die, Robb unleashes the Northern storm on KL and we have a second Hour of The Wolf. Robb then invites Stannis to take the throne. The only bad thing about this scenario is that the Westerlands probably never recover from the damage caused by the Ironborn, the Wall is breached by Mance Rayder, and the Others invade, killing everyone in the North.

 

Communicate better with Edmure/place Brynden in charge of Riverrun.

I think this is pretty self-explanatory. Tywin can’t help Blackwater, gets trapped by Northern cavalry and rivermen on the gold road, dies in a bloody battle, Tyrells don’t have the guts to attack Stannis, deaths of Joffrey, Cersei and Tommen. Tyrion is kept alive for a Lord of Casterly Rock, Stannis wins the support of the Dornishmen by sending them the heads of Tywin and Gregor, Tyrells bend the knee, Marg is probably betrothed to some hotshot Stormlander knight. Robb goes home, defeats Ironborn, shatters Mance’s host and lives a peaceful life till Daenerys and the Others arrive.

If you guys have any other military commanders you want me do an analysis of, just reply. But first, what do you think?

[Lord Lannister]

Robb's biggest mistake was letting himself be named King in the North. That basically limited his options as to who his allies could've been and committed him to victory or death.

[Brynden"Bloodraven" Rivers]

2 hours ago, Lord Lannister said:

Robb's biggest mistake was letting himself be named King in the North. That basically limited his options as to who his allies could've been and committed him to victory or death.

It was not a very logical move but it was definitely not his biggest mistake. 

[The Jingo]

7 minutes ago, Brynden"Bloodraven" Rivers said:

It was not a very logical move but it was definitely not his biggest mistake. 

It definitely was. It made it impossible for him to properly negotiate with any other faction and massively decreased his leverage in his limited attempts to negotiate.

Renly had enough strength under arms not to give a damn what Robb wanted. The combined Tyrell-Stormlands host could have defeated all other armies and then made use of the Redwyne fleet to land in the North and bring it back under the crown. 

Stannis was well known to be a hardass who wouldn't give up any portion of the Seven Kingdoms, and so declaring independence only alienated him and made it impossible to combine forces or make use of Stannis' naval strength. 

Balon Greyjoy did as he did because the North was emptied and he knew that if he took the Moat it would be almost impossible for Robb to dislodge him in any reasonably quick timeframe. Balon was an idiot most of the time, but he understood the Starks lacked the naval strength to do anything but try and assault the Moat overland - and that Robb's kingship would prevent him from allying with anyone else's fleet.

The Lannister enmity made it impossible to negotiate as long as Joffrey lived, and even if Joffrey died would have demand that he bend the knee. 

[James Steller]

2 hours ago, Lord Lannister said:

Robb's biggest mistake was letting himself be named King in the North. That basically limited his options as to who his allies could've been and committed him to victory or death.

Agreed. That was the biggest issue he made for himself. He had the right idea of it for a bit when he talked about declaring for Stannis. That would have changed everything for both their storylines. Robb hands Stannis the North and the Riverlands, which means Stannis coordinates a plan with Robb to keep Tywin occupied while he goes after the Stormlords, or maybe he comes up to the Riverlands with his own forces and begins his campaign there. Renly would always be an issue, but if Stannis could break Tywin first, that would have resulted in a much different story.

[Terrorthatflapsinthenight9]

Robb's biggest mistake was him trusting the Boltons and the Freys in the first place, the former having a history of rebelling against the Starks and Ned having always distrusted Roose Bolton, and the latter for their known untrustworthiness, pettiness and opportunistic nature.

[Loose Bolt]

Robb had so bad cards that he would had lost almost certainly what ever he did. For instance as grandson of lord Hoster he was honorbound to support Tullys and Riverrun and he did not had time to wait until he could call more men at arms. If he had waited too long RR would have fallen and that would have massive political failure for him.

Together with Riverlords he had enough men to challenge Team Lannister. But when they gained support of Tyrells he could not defend Riverlands anymore and so his only choice was to return to North but we know what happened to him and most troops that were loyal to him.

[Thandros]

Robb made many mistakes. His entire grand plan he comes up with during ACOK is when made so stupid it defies belief that anyone could defend it.

Firstly He should have explicitly told Roose Bolton not to engage Lord Tywin. The eastern Army is a distraction engaging Tywin only risks giving up the goose too early. It almost does but fortunately Tywin is unable to warn Jamie or rush to his aid quickly enough once the engagement informs him of Robb's plan.

Secondly he should have made some effort to defeat Forley Prester's detachment. That's four thousand men he simply allows to wander home to safety without the slightest effort to intercept a weak force in hostile territory having to make a circuitous march back to safety. Sure perhaps his men were tired but given the disparity in numbers Robb was going to be facing every easy chance to reduce his enemies forces should have been taken. He could have taken a couple of days rest to recover and then set out. His force would be able to move faster and has easier route to take to get ahead of them to ambush them if he so desired.

Thirdly he places no importance of reclaiming the castles of the Riverlands while the Lannisters of still reeling from the defeats around Riverrun. It's up to Edmure to get him to allow his own lords to reclaim Castles that he should have already been making moves to reclaim. He was perfectly willing to allow the Lannisters to have fortified positions to serve as bases for raiders to harass his supply lines and undermine his base of support as well as limiting his freedom of movement. It's left to individual lords to reclaim them and it goes poorly at least in part because of delays allowing the Lannisters to dig and more coordination to allow vulnerable castles to be retaken by Lannister counter attacks.

 

Fourthly he makes no effort to suppress Lannister raiders. When Tywin sent out Raiders Robb should have been thanking him for easy opportunity to weaken his forces. These aren't fast moving columns of horsemen. We see Gregor's on the way back to Harrenhall. It's slow loaded down with pillage and prisoners and delayed by lengthy torture sessions. Lorch's appears to be moving a little quicker but that was likely an outbound run where in good intelligence could let you intercept them as they advance. Tywin was probably dependent on them for necessary supplies and labour to maintain his position at Harrenhall and without them he'd have to adjust his position much sooner while his forces are being weakened by the destruction of foraging parties.

Fifthly while the attack at Oxcross was a great success and a great idea he shouldn't have lingered a few raids to gather what supplies can be easily acquired to replace destroyed granaries in the RIverlands and then a quick withdrawal but lingering and taking castles make no sense whatsoever. He gains nothing from it and loses men in fighting sieges and to attrition in hostile territory. The plan he has to justify himself staying makes no sense when it was formulated. With Stannis and his relatively weak forces attacking King's Landing it makes sense. It makes none for when it was planned out and Renly would have been attacking. It would only have resulted in a worse strategic position with larger, if mutually hostile, forces on his flanks with less men at his disposal and a slightly better position within the Riverlands. Instead he should have been encouraging Tywin to run off to King's Landing in hopes that the battle would significantly weaken Renly's forces and shift the strategic balance in his favour. Instead he throws his best chance of having his enemies fight each other away in favour of an insane plan with no prospect of success and even success would have been a dangerous double edged sword.

As for the other stuff (sending Theon to the Iron Islands and getting crowned King in the North). Sending Theon was a mistake and to be honest he shouldn't have even tried to negotiate with Balon at all. The later did limit his ability to court alliances but the options available were all utterly rotten (Renly's useless, Stannis didn't have the support and Joffrey and co weren't an option) but it may have had one small advantage it made him the least important contender politically to eliminate. Without pretences to the Iron throne no one would try to eliminate him first unless they think they may have an opportunity to do so (which Tywin thinks he does particularly once Renly and Stannis start fighting each other). Not much but knowing the other combatants will ignore you in favour of each other is an advantage you can count on.

[frenin]

15 hours ago, The Jingo said:

Balon Greyjoy did as he did because the North was emptied and he knew that if he took the Moat it would be almost impossible for Robb to dislodge him in any reasonably quick timeframe. Balon was an idiot most of the time, but he understood the Starks lacked the naval strength to do anything but try and assault the Moat overland - and that Robb's kingship would prevent him from allying with anyone else's fleet

He was pretty stupid, in almost any circumstance but the one we got in the books, the Arryns allow the Starks to sail back safely to White Harbor.  Then the Starks simply took their castles one by one passing every Ironborn to the sword.

Nor that it would have nattered anyway, since the levies at home would have been enough to eventually kick him out had Theon not taking Winterfell, "killed" Robb's heirs, leaving the North in complete disarray.

I do think that crowning himself was by far his worst mistake anyway, as a Great Lord, and especially after the number he does on the Lannisters, Robb is by one of the most desired would be allies. Few of his enemies would have killed Robb Lord of the North.

As King, he's a must kill for everyone who hopes to rule all the country. 

 

 

15 hours ago, James Steller said:

He had the right idea of it for a bit when he talked about declaring for Stannis.

He never talked about that. And he could have never done, since Robb believed Cersei's kids trueborn. Thus Stannis had the same right to the Throne Renly had in Robb's eyes.

 

 

 

[Floki of the Ironborn]

I've often thought about this topic, admittedly with the gift of hindsight, but all the same here is how Robb should have campaigned:

Instead of leaving Helman Tallhart at the Twins, he leaves Daryn Hornwood. He's the heir to his father's lands, and Halys is fighting too, so it makes sense to leave one Hornwood behind doing something important but not life-threatening. It also means that Daryn is close at hand to the North if his father dies and he wants to go consolidate his new title.

Instead of having Roose Bolton command the Stark infantry, keep him with the cavalry so he can't deliberately waste thousands of men at the Green Fork (and yes, it was deliberate, nothing can change my mind about that). Instead of Roose, I put Medger Cerwyn in charge. He's soft-spoken, presumably not rash and stupid, and he's also loyal to Robb unlike Roose. This means the Stark infantry actually does what Robb wanted; don't rush into any kind of battle, don't do a forced nights march just to give away your position to the well-rested Lannister host, and don't run down from the high ground at heavy cavalry.

Instead of sending Theon Greyjoy to treat with Balon, keep him by Robb's side. The Ironborn can't be trusted, and the North has enough men to repel them if they ever try anything. 

Also, Robb should have told Edmure the plan to lure Tywin into the Westerlands, even though Edmure did a great job defending his people against Tywin's army.

[The hairy bear]

23 hours ago, Brynden"Bloodraven" Rivers said:

Again drawing on Cregan Stark’s battle plans, he should have sent a force of greybeards, old men and second sons which would consist of around 7,000~10,000 men, mainly mounted. The commander of this host would most likely be either Rickard Karstark or Roose Bolton. Robb Stark would stay at Winterfell, supervising the harvest and ensuring every holdfast, castles, and village in the North had enough food to get them through winter. The Lannisters posed no real threat to the North as long as Moat Cailin was held by the Galbarts and Tallharts.

The Winter Wolves from the Dance of Dragons were old men who rode south to find a glorious death, leaving more food for their families to survive the winter.

The situation when was completely different for Robb. It was summer, and people thought that it would still last for many years. Robb wouldn't find an suicide army, particularly if he decided to stay at Winterfell himself. Besides, at the time Robb marched South, he just wanted to pressure the Lannisters into freeing Eddard, not causing as much carnage as possible.

23 hours ago, Brynden"Bloodraven" Rivers said:

Robb should have waited until either Renly or Stannis died and pledged his support to the other.

This is a recurrent criticism, and one that I believe is based on a missunderstanding of the situation.

When Robb was proclaimed king, Stannis hadn't proclaimed himself and had (stupidly) not told anyone his suspicions about the bastardy of Cersei's kids. I Robb wanted to declare allegiance to any king, his only options were Joffrey (his father's murderer) or Renly (an opportunist usurper). He couldn't acknowledge any of them as kings.

In a medieval society, you can't deceide to be 'kingless' for a temporary period of time. Deciding that you owe allegiance to no one is akin to proclaim yourself king. In other words, the Greatjon's iniciative to proclaim Robb as King in the North was the logical consequence of refusing Joffrey, Stannis and Renly as kings.

Also, what you suggest (waiting until Renly or Stannis die, then support the other) is completely honorless. You may as well ask the Starks to stop being Starks...

23 hours ago, Brynden"Bloodraven" Rivers said:

I believe the best possible option for Robb as an envoy to Balon would be Roose Bolton. To get Rickard Karstark away from Jaime Lannister, he would give Karstark command  of Bolton’s army.

It seems to me that you wouldn't be suggesting this without hindsight. We know that Theon, Rickard and Roose will betray Robb. He didn't.

It makes sense, if you trust Theon, to send him to Pyke. After all, Robb would always get more cooperation from Balon through an alliance than through blackmail. In fact, blackmail would have got him absolutely nothing, since Balon was already planning to attack the North before Theon was released. Not to mention that attacking the North was a truly stupid move, since Robb was the only other king who would accept the Iron Islands to regain their independence. The "old way" could only work with a fragmented Westeros, and Balon's attack to the North was a direct blow to his own goal.

20 hours ago, The Jingo said:

Renly had enough strength under arms not to give a damn what Robb wanted. The combined Tyrell-Stormlands host could have defeated all other armies and then made use of the Redwyne fleet to land in the North and bring it back under the crown.

At the time Robb was crowned, it was reasonable to assume that the Lysa Arryn and Balon Greyjoy would support him. Working together, North+Riverlands+Vale+Iron Island would make a really powerful entity that should be able to resist any atempt of dominance from Southern Westeros, specially if they are fighting between them.

[The Jingo]

2 hours ago, The hairy bear said:

 

This is a recurrent criticism, and one that I believe is based on a misunderstanding of the situation.

When Robb was proclaimed king, Stannis hadn't proclaimed himself and had (stupidly) not told anyone his suspicions about the bastardy of Cersei's kids. I Robb wanted to declare allegiance to any king, his only options were Joffrey (his father's murderer) or Renly (an opportunist usurper). He couldn't acknowledge any of them as kings.

In a medieval society, you can't decide to be 'kingless' for a temporary period of time. Deciding that you owe allegiance to no one is akin to proclaim yourself king. In other words, the Greatjon's iniciative to proclaim Robb as King in the North was the logical consequence of refusing Joffrey, Stannis and Renly as kings.

Also, what you suggest (waiting until Renly or Stannis die, then support the other) is completely honorless. You may as well ask the Starks to stop being Starks...

 

You literally can though. Robert never declared his intention to seek the Iron Throne until the Battle of the Trident. So either the rebels were indeed "kingless", or they acknowledged Aerys as the king and fought against him anyway.

There was nothing stopping Robb from doing the same thing. He could have simply refused to declare anything but his intent to kill Lannisters as revenge for Ned, and if the Throne goes to someone else by the end of it then so be it. He could have also said that Joffrey and Tommen had no rights due to tyranny, and that he intended to offer the crown to Stannis.

Robb also could have declared for Renly under the pretext of the Throne passing the other candidates due to tyranny. When the rebels fought against Aerys they didn't say "Well he's an evil King and Rhaegar is a rapist, so Aegon is now the King by rights". Aegon and Viserys were passed over due to their association with Aerys' madness and tyranny. 

Similarly, Robb could just say "Well if Stannis declares his intent to seek the Throne, I will support him as the closest in line not tainted by Lannister tyranny. And if Stannis has no intent to do that, then he's complicit in tyranny and loses the right to rule, so Renly is by rights the King."

There is one and one reason only that Robb became King in the North. It's not because he had to. It's because when the lords were talking about what to do, Greatjon (who was probably a secessionist in general) saw the opportunity and jumped up and encouraged a war of independence. That's it. 

[Lord Lannister]

5 hours ago, Floki of the Ironborn said:

Also, Robb should have told Edmure the plan to lure Tywin into the Westerlands, even though Edmure did a great job defending his people against Tywin's army.

I agree with this. Robb blaming Edmure for... not reading his mind... always struck me as petty at best. If there's a plan, let the guy playing a critical part in it know. 

[The Lord of the Crossing]

Robb can't be anybody other than himself.  He was a hypocrite who broke his oath to Walder Frey.  He was eventually going to fall on his face.  He will win battles but would have failed at being king. 

[Buried Treasure]

18 hours ago, Lord Lannister said:

I agree with this. Robb blaming Edmure for... not reading his mind... always struck me as petty at best. If there's a plan, let the guy playing a critical part in it know. 

I place the fault in expecting the other party to mind-read the other way round.

 

Both Edmure and Robb made plans to trap Tywin. Robb's was for Tywin to come west, Edmure's was to trap Tywin  between Riverrun and Harrenhal, then finish him when Robb returned from the west.

 

That is to say:

-Edmure had a plan that depended on Robb taking a specific action they had not discussed.

- Robb had a plan that depended on Edmure continuing to do what they had agreed when they were last in a room together (each of the Riverlords defending their own castle rather than leveed as an army - which is a strategy that Edmure himself had asked Robb to permit).

[chrisdaw]

What Robb should have done is going to be a part of the series, because it is going to be what Jon does do when he marches south on the throne. The most foreshadowed things are below, but initially, unlike Robb, Jon will start with a plan and clear purpose.

When it comes to the twins Jon will have organised for secondary forces to arrive on the western side instead of just asking mum what do I do now? He will use the Ironborn, and he will hold Asha or Theon hostage with his own forces to (hopefully) force their compliance.

Jon will have Arya - Princess in the North, and he won't be marrying her off to any lesser lords. Jon's not going to marry anyone for honour's sake, honour is a personal luxury he knows he doesn't have. He may marry for alliance forming purposes though. He's going to take a lot of heads, insubordination will be dealt with by head taking, as will threats to abandon him and basically everything. 

A key difference to Robb will be that Jon will ford the Trident rather than dicking around every which way. He won't know how but he will know he needs to find a way and will be on the search for the answer the whole war (Sandor will turn cloak for Arya and lead Jon to the secret path through QI that will get him at least a flanking force over the Trident).

Robb had to lose militarily so GRRM couldn't hold any lessons in the winning through Robb for Jon, so instead he's used the Young Dragon Daeron I for the last lesson. Daeron won but failed to hold the south and all his wins were for nothing, it is heavily implied he should have sealed his victories with marriages. That's what Arya is for (and what the pact of ice and fire foreshadows).

[James West]

Battle Commander Robb Stark made very few mistakes in battle.  Communications with Edmure could or should have been better but that is subjective.  They have a command hierarchy that means obeying the next dude above.  Where Robb failed at is leadership.  He shitted on the men who were supporting him.  He kicked the legs holding up his stool.  Being bad to the enemy is conditionally immoral but being bad to your supporters is worse.  He, iike the other Stark young man, sucked at interpersonal relations.  The Stark boys are lacking in the nuances of interpersonal relations.  They were feeling to entitled and failed see how their actions looked to their allies.  Understanding people is important to any person who wants to lead and Robb was bad at it. 

[dsjj251]

On 11/12/2021 at 5:03 PM, Lord Lannister said:

Robb's biggest mistake was letting himself be named King in the North. That basically limited his options as to who his allies could've been and committed him to victory or death.

 

On 11/12/2021 at 7:40 PM, James Steller said:

Agreed. That was the biggest issue he made for himself. He had the right idea of it for a bit when he talked about declaring for Stannis. That would have changed everything for both their storylines. Robb hands Stannis the North and the Riverlands, which means Stannis coordinates a plan with Robb to keep Tywin occupied while he goes after the Stormlords, or maybe he comes up to the Riverlands with his own forces and begins his campaign there. Renly would always be an issue, but if Stannis could break Tywin first, that would have resulted in a much different story.

 

This would have been a mistake if Stannis had become king, but in the context of the story, it didnt matter.

Stannis always planned to confront Renly, And he didnt care abour Tywin either, because his strategy was that if Joffery and his siblings are dead, there is no claim for Tywin to protect, and Kings Landing was an easier win than trying to find and kill Tywin. 

on top of that, Tywin obviously took protecting Kings landing  above beating Robb, negating that point too, 

[Ivashanko]

I think any argument based on Westeros' seasons doesn't mean anything. The variability of the seasons is a plot point, it has no wider effect on the world and GRRM doesn't even really pretend that he's building his world around it. Otherwise almost literally everything in Planetos would be radically different from how things worked in our world.

 

[Universal Sword Donor]

On 11/14/2021 at 4:22 PM, chrisdaw said:

What Robb should have done is going to be a part of the series, because it is going to be what Jon does do when he marches south on the throne. The most foreshadowed things are below, but initially, unlike Robb, Jon will start with a plan and clear purpose.

When it comes to the twins Jon will have organised for secondary forces to arrive on the western side instead of just asking mum what do I do now? He will use the Ironborn, and he will hold Asha or Theon hostage with his own forces to (hopefully) force their compliance.

Jon will have Arya - Princess in the North, and he won't be marrying her off to any lesser lords. Jon's not going to marry anyone for honour's sake, honour is a personal luxury he knows he doesn't have. He may marry for alliance forming purposes though. He's going to take a lot of heads, insubordination will be dealt with by head taking, as will threats to abandon him and basically everything. 

A key difference to Robb will be that Jon will ford the Trident rather than dicking around every which way. He won't know how but he will know he needs to find a way and will be on the search for the answer the whole war (Sandor will turn cloak for Arya and lead Jon to the secret path through QI that will get him at least a flanking force over the Trident).

Robb had to lose militarily so GRRM couldn't hold any lessons in the winning through Robb for Jon, so instead he's used the Young Dragon Daeron I for the last lesson. Daeron won but failed to hold the south and all his wins were for nothing, it is heavily implied he should have sealed his victories with marriages. That's what Arya is for (and what the pact of ice and fire foreshadows).

Jon wouldn’t be able to ford the trident. Going beyond the nonsensical canon that there’s nothing between the twins and the ruby ford, Robb describes it in detail. Fording is impossible. There aren’t enough trees close by and Tywin is marching north. Robb’s only choices were retreat, pay the frey price or engage Tywin w of their retreat possibly cut off. 
 

one can debate the relative merits of each choice but fording was not possible unless Robb somehow picked up a Roman Corp of Engineers