What would have happened if Stannis had stayed at King's Landing instead of leaving for Dragonstone during A Game of Thrones ?

[Terrorthatflapsinthenight9]

Of all the characters already known and frequently mentionned during this first novel, the most glaringly absent character was without a doubt Stannis Baratheon who had began to investigate on the true parentage of his supposed nephews and niece alongside Jon Arryn but had left the court and King's Landing for Dragonstone before Ned Stark arrived here and who stayed on the volcanic island for the entirety of the book. 

What would have happened if however if Stannis hadn't left King's Landing and as such met and worked with Ned when he took the job of Hand of the King, and when Ned began to have his own suspicions about Jon's death and the true parentage of the Baratheon of King's Landing children ?

What would have been his relations and interactions with the other characters here such as Ned, Robert, the rest of the Small Council, the Lannisters and the others ? 

What would have happened and changed with him being present at the capital while the events of AGOT were unfolding here ? How different would the story and the wars in the next books would have been ?

[frenin]

He confronts Ned about the twincest and unless Petyr pulls a sneaky move, House Lannisters falls and Robert remarries Margaery.

[Loose Bolt]

For some odd reason Royal Navy does not seem to have any political influence though crews of those warships should include at least 20 k men. Or as Master of Ships Stannis should had been major player. Naturally assuming that those sailors and marines were loyal to him. So in theory Stannis had more men under his direct command than anybody else in King's Landing. But even S himself seem forgot that when he just run away instead of staying.

 

[Lord Lannister]

I think this is a case where the build up of a mystery out ran common sense a bit. 

But presumably Stannis thought Jon Arryn's sudden case of death was contagious. 

[Canon Claude]

54 minutes ago, Loose Bolt said:

For some odd reason Royal Navy does not seem to have any political influence though crews of those warships should include at least 20 k men. Or as Master of Ships Stannis should had been major player. Naturally assuming that those sailors and marines were loyal to him. So in theory Stannis had more men under his direct command than anybody else in King's Landing. But even S himself seem forgot that when he just run away instead of staying.

 

Just because those crews were loyal to Stannis doesn’t mean they’d stay loyal if he tried to mount a coup. And besides, they’re sailors, so they’re probably not going to be as well armed or armoured as the Gold cloaks or the Lannister troops.

[frenin]

36 minutes ago, Lord Lannister said:

But presumably Stannis thought Jon Arryn's sudden case of death was contagious. 

I mean, he wanted to stay until it was clear that he would not be the next Hand.

 

[Rondo]

Stannis is a cruel man and without pity.  He would not hesitate to reveal what he thinks he knows.  Cersei, Jaime, and the Lannister children will all die.  Tywin and Kevan will respond with war.  

[Loose Bolt]

11 hours ago, Canon Claude said:

Just because those crews were loyal to Stannis doesn’t mean they’d stay loyal if he tried to mount a coup. And besides, they’re sailors, so they’re probably not going to be as well armed or armoured as the Gold cloaks or the Lannister troops.

Crews of those ships should include hundreds of knights (at least 1 per ship) and couple thousand other warriors (at least score per ship). Besides at least veterans among RN had gained some battle experience either against Ironborn (during their rebellion) or other pirates, raiders, smugglers and slavers. After all I assume that Stannis kept them busy when he was Master of Ships.

Most crews were loyal enough that they followed him to Dragon Stone and stayed loyal even when most of them still had relatives living in Kings Landing. After all if those crewmen did not take their families with them to DS most of their relatives were still in KL when Stannis attacked that city

But I assume that major explanation for that is commoners in Westeros cannot even take a leak without direct order. They simply don't seem to have ability think anything by themselves and they need lordlings to give those orders. For instance GCs stayed loyal to Lannisters though just 15(?) years ago Lannisters sacked KL and killed and raped some relatives of those guardsmen. In fact some GCs might even seen personally what happened during that time. But somehow that sacking did not have any effect about loyalty of those guards.

[WhatAnArtist!]

1. So long as Stannis puts aside his jealousy about Ned and Robert, he'd work with Ned immediately and there'd be no prolonged investigation that necessitates involving Baelish and Varys. Most of the work had already been done by Arryn.
2. When Stannis and Ned are satisfied that they have the "evidence" they need, they'll argue about what to do. Ned would still want to warn Cersei so she can take her children and flee; Stannis would have no such qualms, and would tell Robert immediately. This would at best lead to Cersei and the children being imprisoned, and at worst executed.
3. However, if Robert dies before this can happen, Stannis would do Ned tried to do and stage a coup, except he wouldn't be stupid enough to trust Baelish, he'd use Baratheon men-at-arms to do it. And then Cersei and the children would be imprisoned and/or executed.
4. The Small Council would be purged, too; Varys, Baelish and Pycelle would all be removed (one way or another). If Stannis was smart he'd make Ned his Hand, but Ned would probably refuse because he wants to go back home, and because he's angry at Stannis executing Cersei's children.
5. Stannis would need the support of powerful lords in the war with the Lannisters, so he'd need to keep Renly on side somehow. This might be more difficult than anything else, considering their very strained relationship and Renly's abition and complete lack of honour and loyalty.
6. If Stannis really wanted a strong anti-Lannister government, he should invite the Dornish to send their representative to the city to become Hand. The Dornish would be practically salivating at the chance to get completely lawful revenge on Tywin and the Lannisters with the backing of the Iron Throne.
7. The Tyrells are the wildcard here. I'm not sure if they'd be willing to rebel against the Iron Throne if Stannis has already seized it and wiped out the "rightful" heirs (i.e. Joffrey and Tommen); they'd have no pretext except "Stannis is cruel and his younger brother is nicer and cuter".

[GOTSeriesfan]

Were there no dragons outside the Dragonpit during the Storming of the Dragonpit? Couldn't the blacks or greens have stationed at least one of their own dragonriders to protect their sacred beasts? The Maesters may have hated magic, but they are servants of the realm so they can't have conspired to kill the beats. Couldn't Rhaenyra have at least one loyalist near the Dragonpit during the war as it was unguarded and the greens might have gone for the pit as well? And did nobody notice the dragons getting smaller in the pit ?

[James Arryn]

On 11/14/2021 at 10:48 AM, Lord Lannister said:

I think this is a case where the build up of a mystery out ran common sense a bit. 

But presumably Stannis thought Jon Arryn's sudden case of death was contagious. 

And also had no ravens or sense of duty?

[Lord Lannister]

2 hours ago, James Arryn said:

And also had no ravens or sense of duty?

Well a raven would go through Pycelle which presumably Stannis knew would be unwise. But yeah, nothing stopping him from doing what Ned did and telling one of his men to sail to King's Landing and put this message in the hand of Robert and no one else.

[James Arryn]

2 hours ago, Lord Lannister said:

Well a raven would go through Pycelle which presumably Stannis knew would be unwise. But yeah, nothing stopping him from doing what Ned did and telling one of his men to sail to King's Landing and put this message in the hand of Robert and no one else.

Nothing except knowing what he knows and Robert doesn’t. Ie, he is the heir to the throne and the current ruler is surrounded by enemies he doesn’t know of. I mean, he could do his duty, or warn his brother, or just be responsible…but Robert named Ned hand, so fuck that. 

Stannis the dutiful, Stannis the selfless, Stannis the…?

[Lord Lannister]

17 hours ago, James Arryn said:

Stannis the dutiful, Stannis the selfless, Stannis the…?

Like I said previously, it seemed more a plot hole to create a mystery around the murder more than anything else consistent with Stannis' character afterward once he was actually introduced. Or maybe Martin just didn't know what he wanted Stannis to be when he wrote the first novel. Might have been better if he tried to warn Robert via raven and Pycelle intercepted it. But that ship's long since sailed.

[James Arryn]

1 hour ago, Lord Lannister said:

Like I said previously, it seemed more a plot hole to create a mystery around the murder more than anything else consistent with Stannis' character afterward once he was actually introduced. Or maybe Martin just didn't know what he wanted Stannis to be when he wrote the first novel. Might have been better if he tried to warn Robert via raven and Pycelle intercepted it. But that ship's long since sailed.

I think it IS consistent with his character. Stannis IS dutiful…unless it gets in the way of Stannis getting what he thinks he deserves. Not warning Robert and letting events unfold into being the rightful king is not an isolated incident. Stannis’s thinks all of his subjects owe him their first loyalty…but chose Robert over Aerys. Stannis chopped off Davos’ fingers for the trivial crime of smuggling but left himself intact despite of being guilty of the same crime (on the receiving end). He assassinates two obstacles including kinslaying his own brother. 
 

Stannis talks about himself and how mistreated he is almost every time he speaks in the text. Only Cersei’s internal voice comes close to matching that level of relentless egocentricity. It pretty much meets any criteria for the term obsession. He greets recently widowed Cat by haranguing her about Ned being chosen Hand over him. He routinely declaims usurpation despite his own precious claim being the direct result of same. He rubber stamps people being burned for religious ‘heresy’. Etc. Stannis has a self-image of being dutiful and just and he is those things when being so doesn’t get in the way of his absolute favourite subject, the just deserts of Stannis Baratheon. When it does guess which one gets discarded?  
 

It’s pretty much a Greek or Shakespearean stock tragic hero, the guy possessing the fatal flaw that will undo all his virtues, and as the show suggests, that’s where his story will end. It shouldn’t be a surprise, though. Just as Dany has talked repeatedly about burning cities to the ground and exterminating her enemies, Stannis has shown us time and again that nothing is more important to him than getting what he thinks he deserves.  

[SilverGhost]

He probably ends up dead. He's more ruthless than Ned but neither are very good at playing the game in King's Landing. Renly is still around to raise his own claim to cause war and chaos, so Varys and Littlefinger still get the massive conflict each seems to want to further their own goals.

If he goes to Robert about his suspicions and Robert believes him either Robert kills Cersei outright or she gets a chance to demand trial by combat. Since she's still the Queen Jaime could fight for her or if the Kingsguard are prevented from fighting she'll get the Mountain. So either she (and probably her kids too) are outright murdered or she gets a defender and potentially wins (either Robert fights because of his anger and pride and loses or Barristan fights it's even odds of him vs the Mountain or Jaime at his age). So the situation would be far from cut and dry in the aftermath, either Robert just pulled a Maegor the Cruel level move or he ends up shamed as the "Gods" decide against him or his champion. 

[James Arryn]

4 hours ago, SilverGhost said:

He probably ends up dead. He's more ruthless than Ned but neither are very good at playing the game in King's Landing. Renly is still around to raise his own claim to cause war and chaos, so Varys and Littlefinger still get the massive conflict each seems to want to further their own goals.

If he goes to Robert about his suspicions and Robert believes him either Robert kills Cersei outright or she gets a chance to demand trial by combat. Since she's still the Queen Jaime could fight for her or if the Kingsguard are prevented from fighting she'll get the Mountain. So either she (and probably her kids too) are outright murdered or she gets a defender and potentially wins (either Robert fights because of his anger and pride and loses or Barristan fights it's even odds of him vs the Mountain or Jaime at his age). So the situation would be far from cut and dry in the aftermath, either Robert just pulled a Maegor the Cruel level move or he ends up shamed as the "Gods" decide against him or his champion. 

Ned seems to strongly believe it would never get near any kind of legal procedure, and I agree with him. Cersei demands a trial by combat, Robert demands Lyanna back or something to that effect. 

[SilverGhost]

2 hours ago, James Arryn said:

Ned seems to strongly believe it would never get near any kind of legal procedure, and I agree with him. Cersei demands a trial by combat, Robert demands Lyanna back or something to that effect. 

Then the optics suck and Robert looks like the type of unjust King he rebelled against, especially with advisors with agendas sticking around like Varys and Littlefinger. Robert's grasp on the throne isn't as tight as he might think and straight up murder that results in war with the Westerlands might cause cracks to appear. Stannis is Stannis and he observes the laws of the Realm, while he'll believe that Cersei and Jaime are one hundred percent guilty its in his character to prove that with a trial. Renly is the Master of Laws and while he might back Robert, Stannis and his daughter are ahead of him in the line of succession. Robert letting his temper control him would cause more problems than it solved.  

[frenin]

8 hours ago, SilverGhost said:

Then the optics suck and Robert looks like the type of unjust King he rebelled against

The optics don't really suck. The only reason the mad king is reviled today is because he lost, half the Realm still backed him. And he would be remembered as the GOAT if he could pull it off. The Lannisters are far too isolated, are way too hated and a lot of powerful families (mainly the Tyrells) stand to benefit from their downfall.

 

8 hours ago, SilverGhost said:

Robert's grasp on the throne isn't as tight as he might think and straight up murder that results in war with the Westerlands might cause cracks to appear.

He never believed it airtight but he has certainly enough allies to get away with murder.

 

8 hours ago, SilverGhost said:

Stannis is Stannis and he observes the laws of the Realm, while he'll believe that Cersei and Jaime are one hundred percent guilty its in his character to prove that with a trial.

Stannis has stated that he'll kill Cersei and her children several times, he has never even hinted he intends to give them a trial. Stannis being Stannis would also do whatever Robert told him to do, as he has always done.

 

8 hours ago, SilverGhost said:

Renly is the Master of Laws and while he might back Robert, Stannis and his daughter are ahead of him in the line of succession.

Renly by that time is trying to get Robert in bed with Margaery.

 

 

8 hours ago, SilverGhost said:

Robert letting his temper control him would cause more problems than it solved.  

He would obviously lose an staunch supporter in Tywin, but Cersei and Jaime had already poisoned that well so, but he'd gain the support of the Tyrells, especially if Margaery could have a child soon enough and he'd have grounds to cancel half the debt of the Realm by nullifying the giant debts he owed Tywin.

I'd say that barring disastrously military losses, it'd solved half the problems of his reign.

 

[SilverGhost]

21 hours ago, frenin said:

The optics don't really suck. The only reason the mad king is reviled today is because he lost, half the Realm still backed him. And he would be remembered as the GOAT if he could pull it off. 

 

The Mad King's own son was trying to replace him. If the Battle of the Trident went the other way Aerys is still done, only this time it's his own son kicking him off the throne. He's not the GOAT, he's a cowardly version of Maegor the Cruel with terrible hygiene.  

21 hours ago, frenin said:

He never believed it airtight but he has certainly enough allies to get away with murder.

 

 

He's going to consider it either way. Robert's a hotheaded idiot - he's going to act without thinking and make the situation worse. It's what he does. He'd probably try and kill Jaime himself and end up gutted. 

 

21 hours ago, frenin said:

Stannis has stated that he'll kill Cersei and her children several times, he has never even hinted he intends to give them a trial. Stannis being Stannis would also do whatever Robert told him to do, as he has always done.

 

Stannis in this situation is trusting in his brother the King and sticking around in KL rather than running off to Dragonstone and isolating himself. Stannis at war, and believing himself to be the Prince That Was Promised, is willing to do whatever he has to do and then some. Stannis in this situation is choosing to uphold and trust the system, ie bring evidence to his brother. 

 

22 hours ago, frenin said:

Renly by that time is trying to get Robert in bed with Margaery.

 

Which instantly makes any Tyrell support for Robert against the Lannisters look rather self serving and gives Tywin ammo for his own propaganda. Also Renly is out for Renly. He'll back Robert as long as Robert's alive but if Robert does something dumb like getting himself killed trying to kill Jaime Lannister himself then Renly will do what he did in the books --- flee the city and make his own claim. 

 

22 hours ago, frenin said:

He would obviously lose an staunch supporter in Tywin, but Cersei and Jaime had already poisoned that well so, but he'd gain the support of the Tyrells, especially if Margaery could have a child soon enough and he'd have grounds to cancel half the debt of the Realm by nullifying the giant debts he owed Tywin.

I'd say that barring disastrously military losses, it'd solved half the problems of his reign.

 

While Robert likes to laugh at Jaime's expense he does still feel that Jaime is a good and capable knight and defends Jaime to Ned when naming Jaime Warden of the East. So the relationship between Robert and the Lannisters doesn't appear to the Realm as frayed as it does to readers (if it even is that far gone since Ned's the viewpoint for Robert in the book and Ned's POV is pretty biased against the Lannisters). It looks like a hard turn to ditch his wife for a younger queen and clear a three million gold dragon debt - something which will make other debt holders more than a bit wary. One of those debt holders is the Iron Bank. 

Also none of this takes into account Varys or Littlefinger - who are running rings around everyone else in KL when it comes to playing the game. Stannis might end up just like Jon Arryn - or Ned Stark. He's only a threat in the books because he isolates Dragonstone and then takes a good portion of Renly's forces after Renly's death. That only happens because he's not in KL when things go down. If he's still there he's probably dead.