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International Events VIII: Been living under a rock so long


TheLastWolf

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6 minutes ago, SeanF said:

On the face of it, it seems that most Melenchon voters went for Le Pen.  I'm doubtful that would be the case in Metropolitan France, though.

Bizarrely, bookies are now offering 12-1 on Le Pen.

 

7 minutes ago, SeanF said:

Bizarrely, bookies are now offering 12-1 on Le Pen.

So far it looks pretty good for her no?

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1 minute ago, Varysblackfyre321 said:

 

So far it looks pretty good for her no?

Yes.  If that pattern is repeated in Metropolitan France (and it’s a big if)she could well win.  It has to be a much better chance than the 7% implied by current odds.

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42 minutes ago, SeanF said:

Yes.  If that pattern is repeated in Metropolitan France (and it’s a big if)she could well win.  It has to be a much better chance than the 7% implied by current odds.

I mean, considering the polls had the margin at ~10 points, 7% is already really good odds.  Without knowing anything else about a race, if someone was losing in the polls 45 to 55, I'd put their odds at around double that.

Anywho, only about two hours til the exits are published...

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Just now, DMC said:

I mean, considering the polls had the margin at ~10 points, 7% is already really good odds.  Without knowing anything else about a race, if someone was losing in the polls 45 to 55, I'd put their odds at around double that.

Anywho, only about two hours til the exits are published...

Yes, in most two horse races, the odds must be better than that (save for 2002, when it was clear Le Pen senior was going to be flattened).

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Very crudely, Trump was within 1-sigma standard deviation while Le Pen is more in the 2-sigma range, you can guesstimate their odds just by assuming that (~32 percent for Trump and ~5% for Le Pen). 

Interestingly, Melenchon wants to be Prime Minister come June.

Quote

Mélenchon, a fervent opponent of both Emmanuel Macron and Marine Le Pen, pledged that if successful he would force whoever wins the keys to the Élysée tomorrow into an uncomfortable parliamentary “cohabitation” that would hamstring efforts by them to pass reforms the left opposes.

 

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5 hours ago, Varysblackfyre321 said:

I’m going to guess the polls will be off to a significant degree in le Pen’s favor with many disaffected leftists and progressives not feeling a point in once again having to save the liberal.

It's true that the biggest threat to Macron is probably the very lead I'm citing, since it might give such voters the impression that they have the option to stay home as a protest.

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5 minutes ago, IheartIheartTesla said:

Very crudely, Trump was within 1-sigma standard deviation while Le Pen is more in the 2-sigma range, you can guesstimate their odds just by assuming that (~32 percent for Trump and ~5% for Le Pen). 

Interestingly, Melenchon wants to be Prime Minister come June.

 

I doubt if LREM will win a majority, even if Macron is re-elected.

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1 minute ago, A True Kaniggit said:

Trump won in 2015 in spite of all polls.

Surely the same thing won't happen in France.

@mormant

Edit: the very lead I'm citing, since it might give such voters the impression that they have the option to stay home as a protest.

That' s how Clinton lost.

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2 minutes ago, A True Kaniggit said:

Trump won in 2015 in spite of all polls.

Surely the same thing won't happen in France.

National polling was very accurate in 2016, correctly giving Clinton a small lead.  It was the Electoral College that translated that into a Trump win.

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3 minutes ago, SeanF said:

National polling was very accurate in 2016, correctly giving Clinton a small lead.  It was the Electoral College that translated that into a Trump win.

Does France have an equivalent to the EC?

If not, YAY!, Macron wins. 

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3 minutes ago, A True Kaniggit said:

Does France have an equivalent to the EC?

If not, YAY!, Macron wins. 

No.  50% + 1 is enough.  The real issue is how left wing voters from Round 1 break.  In the West Indies, they broke for Le Pen.

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12 minutes ago, SeanF said:

National polling was very accurate in 2016, correctly giving Clinton a small lead.  It was the Electoral College that translated that into a Trump win.

The polling error in 2016 was about 2 points, which is almost exactly an average error for a presidential election.  Both 2020 (in Trump's direction) and 2012 (in Obama's) had errors about double that, but OTOH the 2004 and 2008 polls were right on the money.

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38 minutes ago, mormont said:

It's true that the biggest threat to Macron is probably the very lead I'm citing, since it might give such voters the impression that they have the option to stay home as a protest.

Or vote for le pen to send a message to macron or because the blow back to le pen would be so great that the left gets in power during the next elections.

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1 minute ago, Varysblackfyre321 said:

Or vote for le pen to send a message to macron or because the blow back to le pen would be so great that the left gets in power during the next elections.

Exit polls suggest a win of 56/44 or so for Macron, so the West Indies were an outlier.

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7 minutes ago, Varysblackfyre321 said:

Or vote for le pen to send a message to macron or because the blow back to le pen would be so great that the left gets in power during the next elections.

This would be like blowing your own foot off as part of a cunning master plan to avoid doing the dishes.

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