International Events VIII: Been living under a rock so long

[DireWolfSpirit]

53 minutes ago, SeanF said:

What would you like him to be charged with?

The list is endless,the hush money that his fixer took the fall for, income tax fraud for false real estate valuations, campaign finance violations, charity tampering, lying to congress, lying to Mueller, violating the emuliations(sp) clause, inciting violence and attempting to overturn the election and many other  crimes over his reign. Those are just remembering on the spur of the moment. The man is a walking talking free pass felon.

[Padraig]

1 hour ago, Winterfell is Burning said:

This line of thinking (move to destroy the moderate forces and invest in polarization between extremist ones, trying to retain or increase power by either force or attempting to look like the lesser evil) is pretty much what Bolsonaro is trying to do here since he took office.

My impression is that Brazil's problems predated Bolsonaro?  Wasn't it difficult to find somebody in power who wasn't being investigated for corruption when Rousseff was President?  Lulu even ended up in jail.  With the normal parties in complete dissarray, it isn't a surprise (if still tragic) that somebody like Bolsanaro could rise to power, promising the drain the swamp.

In that sense, there is some similarities with Le Pen, since the traditional parties in France have struggled in recent years but not in the same way as Brazil.  But it did make things easier for her.  (What happened in Brazil, more reminded me of what happened in Italy in the 80s/90s, when all the main parties seemed to be in cahoots with the Mafia, leading to the rise of Berlusconi).

Actually, I see Bolsanaro's popularity has increased in Brazil over the last couple of months?  He is still behind Lulu but not great news.

Anyhow, you'd hope that this is the end of Le Pen's efforts to get the Presidency (but somebody from France may have a much better view).  It is always harder in France to get reelected, so Le Pen could play the "Change" candidate this time (which Macron could do last time).  Next time, somebody else can have that role.

The interesting thing will be the Parliamentary elections in June.  Le Pen's party is unlikely to get anywhere close to 40% of the vote.  But Macron's party is unlikely to do great either.  Could be a very diverse Parliament.  The left will certainly be back, taking a very active role in things.

[SeanF]

1 hour ago, Ser Scot A Ellison said:

That’s… disturbing.

Yes, quite a lot of Metroplitan France, in addition to five overseas Departments, has voted Le Pen.  She’s come first in Corsica, and will probably come first in Normandy, Grand Est, Alpes-Provence Cote d’Azure, and Haut de France.

[SeanF]

1 hour ago, DireWolfSpirit said:

The list is endless,the hush money that his fixer took the fall for, income tax fraud for false real estate valuations, campaign finance violations, charity tampering, lying to congress, lying to Mueller, violating the emuliations(sp) clause, inciting violence and attempting to overturn the election and many other  crimes over his reign. Those are just remembering on the spur of the moment. The man is a walking talking free pass felon.

Proving such things beyond reasonable doubt would not be easy.

[Winterfell is Burning]

1 hour ago, Padraig said:

My impression is that Brazil's problems predated Bolsonaro?  Wasn't it difficult to find somebody in power who wasn't being investigated for corruption when Rousseff was President?  Lulu even ended up in jail.  With the normal parties in complete dissarray, it isn't a surprise (if still tragic) that somebody like Bolsanaro could rise to power, promising the drain the swamp.

In that sense, there is some similarities with Le Pen, since the traditional parties in France have struggled in recent years but not in the same way as Brazil.  But it did make things easier for her.  (What happened in Brazil, more reminded me of what happened in Italy in the 80s/90s, when all the main parties seemed to be in cahoots with the Mafia, leading to the rise of Berlusconi).

Actually, I see Bolsanaro's popularity has increased in Brazil over the last couple of months?  He is still behind Lulu but not great news.

Anyhow, you'd hope that this is the end of Le Pen's efforts to get the Presidency (but somebody from France may have a much better view).  It is always harder in France to get reelected, so Le Pen could play the "Change" candidate this time (which Macron could do last time).  Next time, somebody else can have that role.

The interesting thing will be the Parliamentary elections in June.  Le Pen's party is unlikely to get anywhere close to 40% of the vote.  But Macron's party is unlikely to do great either.  Could be a very diverse Parliament.  The left will certainly be back, taking a very active role in things.

Surely, Brazil's problems long predate Bolsonaro (though some people like to pretend they didn't, specially on the left), I just mentioned the problems he's causing or trying to. He also saw his popularity somewhat increase in the last months due to: a) Pandemic slowing down considerably due to widespread vaccination (which Bolsonaro opposed); b) The government begun to more aggresively use social programs to buy votes (and regardless of what benefit they bring the poor, in Brazil they are designed with this as the main goal, long before he took office); c) Lula begun to open his mouth more, saying one dumb shit after another; d) The more moderate opposition, in the right and the left, essentially spent more time sabotaging each other and themselves than trying to mount a serious challenge (and sadly, probably won't, since the potential candidates that have more votes and chances are hated by the political establishment and either won't be able to run or will be sabotaged if they do)

[DireWolfSpirit]

So it seems Macrons majority ended up quite large, over 58% of votes the Post is reporting.

[polishgenius]

10 minutes ago, DireWolfSpirit said:

So it seems Macrons majority ended up quite large, over 58% of votes the Post is reporting.

On the one hand this is a relief, but on the other hand it might prove long-term bad because I've already got into a fight with some twitter tits who are insisting that such a wide margin means she was never close, there is no problem with mainstream politicians appealing to the concerns of the far right for votes, and etc etc. Macron's already stated he'll have to address the issues that got her so close, and it's like mate you nor your successors will ever address them better than her stop giving her fuel.

[SeanF]

1 minute ago, polishgenius said:

On the one hand this is a relief, but on the other hand it might prove long-term bad because I've already got into a fight with some twitter tits who are insisting that such a wide margin means she was never close, there is no problem with mainstream politicians appealing to the concerns of the far right for votes, and etc etc. Macron's already stated he'll have to address the issues that got her so close, and it's like mate you nor your successors will ever address them better than her stop giving her fuel.

42% of the vote is not insignificant in any case.  Le Pen likely carried 31/32 Departments.  She also won 52% among voters aged under 34.  By contrast, Macron won 68% among voters aged over 65.

[DMC]

12 minutes ago, SeanF said:

She also won 52% among voters aged under 34.

I strongly suspect this is significantly skewed by the drop in turnout.

[Padraig]

1 hour ago, SeanF said:

 She also won 52% among voters aged under 34. 

While not good, it would be interesting to know how much of that is anti-Macron, rather than pro-Le Pen.  Macron has hardly endeared himself to the young.  Le Pen wouldn't have the same advantages again.

2 hours ago, Winterfell is Burning said:

The more moderate opposition, in the right and the left, essentially spent more time sabotaging each other and themselves than trying to mount a serious challenge (and sadly, probably won't, since the potential candidates that have more votes and chances are hated by the political establishment and either won't be able to run or will be sabotaged if they do)

Sorry to hear that!  I don't know enough about Lulu to make a good call on him but I would have hoped for a third way!

[Winterfell is Burning]

11 minutes ago, Padraig said:

While not good, it would be interesting to know how much of that is anti-Macron, rather than pro-Le Pen.  Macron has hardly endeared himself to the young.  Le Pen wouldn't have the same advantages again.

Sorry to hear that!  I don't know enough about Lulu to make a good call on him but I would have hoped for a third way!

 Brazil's problem right now is that it has two main candidates in the next elections: one of them is a populist with clear authoritarian tendencies, a history of corruption scandals, praise of dictatorships, contempt for the free press, and at least some sexist or homophobic statements...and the other is Bolsonaro. Yeah, we're fucked. 

[Jaxom 1974]

5 hours ago, DireWolfSpirit said:

So it seems Macrons majority ended up quite large, over 58% of votes the Post is reporting.

 

 

[The Anti-Targ]

France didn't vote for a far right nationalist, but it did vote in a president who ideologically is incapable of doing anything to prevent the ongoing rise of right-wing nationalism as one of the destructive expressions of dissatisfaction and expiration at the ongoing and growing economic disparities between the haves and have nots.

[Luzifer's right hand]

5 hours ago, The Anti-Targ said:

France didn't vote for a far right nationalist, but it did vote in a president who ideologically is incapable of doing anything to prevent the ongoing rise of right-wing nationalism as one of the destructive expressions of dissatisfaction and expiration at the ongoing and growing economic disparities between the haves and have nots.

He is a lesser evil with an emphasis on evil. 

That was clear see since his first campaign.

Sadly that is the world we live in.

[Padraig]

4 hours ago, Luzifer's right hand said:

He is a lesser evil with an emphasis on evil. 

Evil seems a little harsh.  I'm not going to waste my time defending him.  Its a relative thing, so one can make a case.  But my bar would be higher.

[IheartIheartTesla]

16 hours ago, SeanF said:

42% of the vote is not insignificant in any case.  Le Pen likely carried 31/32 Departments.  She also won 52% among voters aged under 34.  By contrast, Macron won 68% among voters aged over 65.

I think the good news (if you can call it that) is that this wasnt a true surprise based on polling from the past week or so. The concern would be if there were 'hidden Le Pen' voters that werent being adequately captured or what have you.

So the data is absolutely there and Macron can use it to address issues and monitor responses, but I fear France is only a cycle or two from going the 'authoritarian' route.

[SeanF]

11 minutes ago, IheartIheartTesla said:

I think the good news (if you can call it that) is that this wasnt a true surprise based on polling from the past week or so. The concern would be if there were 'hidden Le Pen' voters that werent being adequately captured or what have you.

So the data is absolutely there and Macron can use it to address issues and monitor responses, but I fear France is only a cycle or two from going the 'authoritarian' route.

If anything, polls have tended to overstate FN support in the past. 

[Zorral]

The African heritage population of the former French colonies* in the Caribbean and Mauritius etc. voted overwhelmingly for Le Pen.  One reason is their antagonism to vaccination, because nobody trusts anything white culture wishes to put into their bodies.  Haitians both here in the US and back on Haiti flat out refuse.   The other reason is the vast, overt inequality between Black and White that has been growing there as everywhere else.  Now on this second reason I fail to fathom why anyone who is Black thinks these white supremacists holding all the power would help them.

*African heritage communities such as Rastas in Jamaica also refuse, which is mirrored here in the multitude of African American and other communities here from former European colonies.

[Rippounet]

4 hours ago, IheartIheartTesla said:

So the data is absolutely there and Macron can use it to address issues and monitor responses, but I fear France is only a cycle or two from going the 'authoritarian' route.

Pretty much, yeah. At this rate, I'm giving us ten years (two cycles), before we elect a Le Pen (I'm thinking Marion rather than Marine tbh).

But... There are now rumors that Macron plans to choose a leftist (Montebourg) as prime minister *!*
Of course, such rumors are pure political strategy since the French president can only choose a PM who has the approval (/confidence) of the National Assembly, and the legislative elections are in the next few weeks...
Nonetheless it's an intriguing thought. Mélenchon has been busy (and rather successful) at building a grand leftist alliance in the past few days, and asked all leftist voters to mobilize in order to give him a legislative majority, so that he can become PM.
That's unlikely to happen, but LFI getting a lot of representatives is not impossible (far-right voters tend to abstain more for legislative elections). And leftists are super-pissed right now, so them actually mobilizing does sound credible.
If the left gets at least 30% in the National Assembly, a center-left PM could become an actual possibility.
Needless to say, that would change everything. Including the prediction that we have only ten years before France becomes authoritarian.

Generally speaking, the presidential election is really not the endgame here.
Macron won a legislative majority in 2017 because he was an unknown quantity, and people viewed him as centrist. Now that he's known to be a neo-liberal, that's rather unlikely to happen again. In fact, based on electoral maps, his party (LREM) could conceivably be crushed in the legislatives, only holding on to a few dozen seats in wealthy, urban areas. Other urban areas are likely to go to the left, and rural areas will either go to the far-right or the "traditional" right.
It will all come down to what the final percentages look like. And in all honesty, it's fucking impossible to predict, which is exactly why the rumors about Montebourg are being circulated (by Macron's team, no doubt).

From the outside it may seem like Macron won, but it's really more that Le Pen lost.
 

2 hours ago, Zorral said:

The African heritage population of the former French colonies* in the Caribbean and Mauritius etc. voted overwhelmingly for Le Pen.  One reason is their antagonism to vaccination, because nobody trusts anything white culture wishes to put into their bodies.  Haitians both here in the US and back on Haiti flat out refuse.   The other reason is the vast, overt inequality between Black and White that has been growing there as everywhere else.  Now on this second reason I fail to fathom why anyone who is Black thinks these white supremacists holding all the power would help them.

Hmmm... Not that what you say is wrong, but there are reasons you're obviously not aware of:
- Chlordecone has become a huge issue in Martinique and Guadeloupe, with over 90% of the people having traces of this insecticide in their blood, which leads to many cancers. Chlordecone was used to keep producing bananas from the 1970s to the 1990s (even though its dangers were well-known, and it was forbidden almost everywhere in the 1970s), and it's contaminated everything (you can't fish in rivers anymore for instance, and even vegetable patches can be risky).
It's one of the greatest health scandals in French history, but the government hasn't really dealt with it, which explains why people living in Martinique and Guadeloupe are desperate for change - any change.
For anyone interested, here's an official summary: https://www.anses.fr/en/content/assessing-risks-chlordecone-exposure-french-caribbean

- People living in La Réunion are obsessed with purchasing power (everything there is expensive), and Le Pen campaigned on that issue.
- People living in New Caledonia are pissed that the independence referendum was organised during the pandemic, even though Kanak organisations refused to participate (because of said pandemic). They can legitimately hope that any "populist" party will give them another shot.

That's just on top of my head. Anyway, people living in former colonies are outraged because successive governments have tended to ignore their problems.

[Padraig]

1 hour ago, Rippounet said:

Pretty much, yeah. At this rate, I'm giving us ten years (two cycles), before we elect a Le Pen (I'm thinking Marion rather than Marine tbh).

I suppose the worry is that Macron is going to run the country into the ground over the next 5 years?  But if parliamentary elections don't go his way, he will at least be quite constrained in what he can do?

Also he can't run again, which hopefully means Le Pen loses the anti-Macron crowd.  And those that abstained this time, should be more willing to vote next time.  Of course, that depends on who emerges over the next 5 years.  After 10 years of the right, that should give the left an opportunity?

And the whole climate emergency has to become much more relevant over the next 5 years, which wouldn't do Le Pen any favourites either (but people were possibly saying the same thing 5 years ago).

So, if whoever gets elected next time doesn't put things on a better path, then their attempted reelection would open the doors for another Le Pen.  That might be where you get 10 years?