The situation in kings landing

[Daenerysthegreat]

So I have finished my re reads. I am planning to leave by tomorrow and start harry Potter. Before that I have some last minute questions

Will cersei be allowed to rule again after her walk? No one in the small council seems to think so. Can she have any power left

Kevan seems to think Jaime is dead? How much time has passed since the last Jaime chapter. In the chapter before this the moon was crescent and now it's full. 

Why are nymeria and tyene taking so much time to arrive? They left a book ago. 

Winter is finally here, does it mean that the blackwater is frozen now? 

If aegon is fake why did varys lie? If aegon is real why varys bother with telling the truth? 

@EggBlue, @WhatAnArtist!, @Lord Varys,  @Jaenara Belarys, @Odej, @Phylum of Alexandria, @BlackLightning

I just want some these to these questions(preferably 4 or 5).I will be back September at my next re read. 

 

 

[WhatAnArtist!]

45 minutes ago, Daenerysthegreat said:

Will cersei be allowed to rule again after her walk? No one in the small council seems to think so. Can she have any power left

Certainly not. In the wake of Kevan's death, it seems that Mace Tyrell will be in charge of things, and since Cersei is the one that got Margaery Tyrell imprisoned, I don't think Mace will be doing any favours for Cersei. Unless Cersei can somehow take back control of the government with the help of Qyburn and Robert Strong, she won't be in charge of anything. The Tyrells have soldiers in and near the capital, Cersei does not. She's in a very bad position. The Tyrells despise her and will keep her on a very short leash.

48 minutes ago, Daenerysthegreat said:

Kevan seems to think Jaime is dead? How much time has passed since the last Jaime chapter. In the chapter before this the moon was crescent and now it's full. 

Didn't someone mention that it'd been a month since Jaime disappeared with Brienne? 

49 minutes ago, Daenerysthegreat said:

Why are nymeria and tyene taking so much time to arrive? They left a book ago. 

Not really. The chapter where they're given their instructions by Doran - The Watcher - occurs roughly halfway through Dance, and the second half of Dance doesn't cover as much time as the first half seems to. Based on other travel times in the series, they probably should have arrived by the epilogue, but maybe they took a long time and had other things to do on the way. Or maybe Martin just decided to delay their arrival until the start of Winds because he didn't want to start a whole new storyline before then. Nymeria and Tyene aren't relevant quite yet, and Martin had other things he needed to resolve in KL first.

52 minutes ago, Daenerysthegreat said:

If aegon is real why varys bother with telling the truth? 

What do you mean by this? Why would Varys not tell the truth in this situation?

[Daenerysthegreat]

1 minute ago, WhatAnArtist! said:

 

What do you mean by this? Why would Varys not tell the truth in this situation?

Because he is telling it to a dying man

[WhatAnArtist!]

Just now, Daenerysthegreat said:

Because he is telling it to a dying man

Yes, so why would he bother lying if the person he's telling it to is going to die anyway? There's no reason to lie in this situation. Dead people can't speak.

[Canon Claude]

6 minutes ago, WhatAnArtist! said:

Yes, so why would he bother lying if the person he's telling it to is going to die anyway? There's no reason to lie in this situation. Dead people can't speak.

Others are listening, perhaps? Or maybe Varys is wrong and doesn’t know it? Or he’s lying to spite Kevan in his last moments? 

[WhatAnArtist!]

1 minute ago, Canon Claude said:

Others are listening, perhaps?

Others, like who? Varys wouldn't have done this if there was the chance others might be listening. He's an extremely careful and intelligent person.

2 minutes ago, Canon Claude said:

Or maybe Varys is wrong and doesn’t know it?

Well then he wouldn't be "lying", would he?

3 minutes ago, Canon Claude said:

Or he’s lying to spite Kevan in his last moments? 

I don't think Kevan would care that much one way or the other about the true identity of Aegon. Kevan wasn't a fanatical anti-Targaryen like Robert was, he just wanted to serve House Lannister. Regardless of who Aegon is, he's still an enemy of the Lannisters, so it doesn't really matter.

[Odej]

8 hours ago, Daenerysthegreat said:

Will cersei be allowed to rule again after her walk? No one in the small council seems to think so. Can she have any power left

No. With Kevan dead Mace will likely choose another familiar/vassal as regent on a council that is already Tyrell for the most part. Cersei will remain in King's Landing. She will stay there because of her judgment and 'cause it's interesting for her character to watch the Lannister fall from power with Aegon's campaign and possible the death of Tommem and Myrcella.

Fostering disputes between Lannister and Tyrell could also be Cersei's role. The only council member on the Lannister team now is Harry Swyft, Kevan's good-father and master of coin, whom Cersei had appointed as Hand earlier. Like Pycelle, Swyft also seems to fear the Tyrells, as Mace wanted his uncle Garth as the master of coin. Cersei already suspected that the Tyrells had play a part in Tywin's death along with Tyrion, because a Gardener coin was found in Tyrion's jailer's quarters. Varys killed Kevan and Pycelle with a crossbow to create a resemblance to Tywin's death and make Cersei's distrust of the Tyrells even more. With Cersei in King's Landing she can influence Swyft with this idea and he could influence other Lannisters and men of the West. 

[Phylum of Alexandria]

Cersei:

I don't have a good feeling of where Cersei's story is going. Clearly, Kevan's death can lead to less effective restraints against her, and Robert Strong is there just waiting to be utilized for a power grab.

At the same time, I don't know how this will clash against Aegon's rising campaign. I lean toward the idea that Aegon will be successful in claiming the throne, at least because that sets him up as a target for Daenerys once she comes to Westeros.

But where does that leave Cersei? The end of ADWD sets her up as an agent of chaos, so it seems a bit of a waste to depose her so swiftly.

This is one reason why I think she might end up serving as a catalyst for a "Scouring of the Shire"-type scenario toward the end of ADOS. 

Aegon:

Aegon's Blackfyre status is so far not confirmed in-text, but it is something that I support. As for Varys, he doesn't outright lie to Kevan.

Kevan says: "Aegon? Dead. He's dead." To which Varys responds, "No. He is here." Which is technically true, it's just that Kevan is talking about Rhaegar's son Aegon, while Varys is fixated on the very current rise of Aegon Mopatis/Blackfyre.

This is his primary goal in confessing stuff to Kevan. Not to reveal "hey, I'm lying to the whole realm!" Instead, this moment lets Varys reveal himself as the ideologue he has always been. This is the "hero's narrative" he's been secretly fighting for all these years. So while he's certainly trying to convey to Kevan that he's a canny schemer, he's also revealed himself to be a hopelessly deluded Romantic, who is placing a misguided faith in a boy who is woefully unprepared for the role he's been set up for. It won't end well.

[WhatAnArtist!]

2 minutes ago, Phylum of Alexandria said:

placing a misguided faith in a boy who is woefully unprepared for the role he's been set up for

How so? His entire life has seen him be prepared for kingship by his companions. Far better than Aerys, or Robert, or Daenerys.

[Phylum of Alexandria]

2 minutes ago, WhatAnArtist! said:

How so? His entire life has seen him be prepared for kingship by his companions. Far better than Aerys, or Robert, or Daenerys.

He's been prepared in some ways. As Varys says, he's better prepared than someone like Tommen. Nevertheless, he's been cultivated like a hothouse flower. Micromanaged, sheltered. He's had no great accomplishments of his own. Tyrion pointed this out on the Shy Maid, and Aegon himself took this to heart, which is why he is now eager to lead the attack on Storm's End.

Still, for the entire series we've been watching two other young dragon heroes rise out of unlikely circumstances to claim power, assume leadership, and make hard decisions for the people under their charge. They're not free of ambitions, blind spots, failures, or their own dark side, but they have clearly demonstrated that they sincerely wish to use their power to do good for those who don't have power. So far Aegon has only acted on his own claim. There has only been talk about his "rights" to the throne, and no talk about the responsibilities to the realm. 

I think Dany will struggle with this too, once Aegon claims power, but unlike Aegon there is more in-story set up for an eventual pull back from that path.

[EggBlue]

1 hour ago, Daenerysthegreat said:

Will cersei be allowed to rule again after her walk? No one in the small council seems to think so. Can she have any power left

No. but that doesn't mean she won't try to cause chaos by murdering Tyrells in their beds or something

1 hour ago, Daenerysthegreat said:

Kevan seems to think Jaime is dead? How much time has passed since the last Jaime chapter. In the chapter before this the moon was crescent and now it's full. 

If I recall correctly it was 1 - 1/5 month

 

1 hour ago, Daenerysthegreat said:

Winter is finally here, does it mean that the blackwater is frozen now? 

If it's not already , it should be by the first chapters of the winds. otherwise the whole freaking freezing promised long winter will be nothing significant

1 hour ago, Daenerysthegreat said:

If aegon is fake why did varys lie?

If you're referring to his conversation with Kevan , I don't think it should be counted as lie since he talks about this Aegon anyway. who ever he really is.

1 hour ago, Daenerysthegreat said:

If aegon is real why varys bother with telling the truth? 

I think that part was meant for the reader. 

[Odej]

8 hours ago, Daenerysthegreat said:

If aegon is fake why did varys lie? If aegon is real why varys bother with telling the truth? 

I think that is one of the books moments that are mostly for the readers and not for the characters. The point of Varys speech for me is convince the reader that Aegon is the best candidate for the throne 'cause of all the preparation he had. Unlike characters like Daenerys and Jon, loved by many readers who want one of them to rule Westeros, but their lack of preparation could be seen when Daenerys ruled Meereen and Jon the Night's watch. Things didn't go very well.

So how could they be a good option for the Iron Throne? 

[Brynden"Bloodraven" Rivers]

5 hours ago, Daenerysthegreat said:

So I have finished my re reads. I am planning to leave by tomorrow and start harry Potter. Before that I have some last minute questions

Will cersei be allowed to rule again after her walk? No one in the small council seems to think so. Can she have any power left

Kevan seems to think Jaime is dead? How much time has passed since the last Jaime chapter. In the chapter before this the moon was crescent and now it's full. 

Why are nymeria and tyene taking so much time to arrive? They left a book ago. 

Winter is finally here, does it mean that the blackwater is frozen now? 

If aegon is fake why did varys lie? If aegon is real why varys bother with telling the truth? 

@EggBlue, @WhatAnArtist!, @Lord Varys,  @Jaenara Belarys, @Odej, @Phylum of Alexandria, @BlackLightning

I just want some these to these questions(preferably 4 or 5).I will be back September at my next re read. 

 

 

We'll miss you @Daenerysthegreat. 

1. Cersei has no power in KL and will certainly flee KL to Casterly Rock after Aegon attacks.

2. A month or so has passed.

3. Nymeria and Tyene were commanded to leave a book ago. Doesn't mean they immediately left. Also the kingsroad is precarious.

4. No, Kevan doesn't mention it, but it could happen.

Quote

As the year drew to a close, winter returned to Westeros with a vengeance. On the last day of the year, snow began to fall upon King's Landing, and a crust of ice formed atop the Blackwater Rush. The snowfall continued off and on for the best part of a fortnight, by which time the Blackwater was hard frozen, and icicles draped the roofs and gutters of every tower in

5. I don't understand your last question.

[chrisdaw]

Varys is in his element, in the middle of explaining his magnum opus, he doesn't pull a time out to explain the exact lineage of this Aegon he's brought to Westeros and is banging down the door of the throne room to a dying man because he doesn't have to, because it doesn't matter.

[Daenerysthegreat]

13 hours ago, WhatAnArtist! said:

Certainly not. In the wake of Kevan's death, it seems that Mace Tyrell will be in charge of things, and since Cersei is the one that got Margaery Tyrell imprisoned, I don't think Mace will be doing any favours for Cersei. Unless Cersei can somehow take back control of the government with the help of Qyburn and Robert Strong, she won't be in charge of anything. The Tyrells have soldiers in and near the capital, Cersei does not. She's in a very bad position. The Tyrells despise her and will keep her on a very short leash.

Didn't someone mention that it'd been a month since Jaime disappeared with Brienne? 

Not really. The chapter where they're given their instructions by Doran - The Watcher - occurs roughly halfway through Dance, and the second half of Dance doesn't cover as much time as the first half seems to. Based on other travel times in the series, they probably should have arrived by the epilogue, but maybe they took a long time and had other things to do on the way. Or maybe Martin just decided to delay their arrival until the start of Winds because he didn't want to start a whole new storyline before then. Nymeria and Tyene aren't relevant quite yet, and Martin had other things he needed to resolve in KL first.

What do you mean by this? Why would Varys not tell the truth in this situation?

 

12 hours ago, Odej said:

No. With Kevan dead Mace will likely choose another familiar/vassal as regent on a council that is already Tyrell for the most part. Cersei will remain in King's Landing. She will stay there because of her judgment and 'cause it's interesting for her character to watch the Lannister fall from power with Aegon's campaign and possible the death of Tommem and Myrcella.

Fostering disputes between Lannister and Tyrell could also be Cersei's role. The only council member on the Lannister team now is Harry Swyft, Kevan's good-father and master of coin, whom Cersei had appointed as Hand earlier. Like Pycelle, Swyft also seems to fear the Tyrells, as Mace wanted his uncle Garth as the master of coin. Cersei already suspected that the Tyrells had play a part in Tywin's death along with Tyrion, because a Gardener coin was found in Tyrion's jailer's quarters. Varys killed Kevan and Pycelle with a crossbow to create a resemblance to Tywin's death and make Cersei's distrust of the Tyrells even more. With Cersei in King's Landing she can influence Swyft with this idea and he could influence other Lannisters and men of the West. 

 

12 hours ago, Phylum of Alexandria said:

Cersei:

I don't have a good feeling of where Cersei's story is going. Clearly, Kevan's death can lead to less effective restraints against her, and Robert Strong is there just waiting to be utilized for a power grab.

At the same time, I don't know how this will clash against Aegon's rising campaign. I lean toward the idea that Aegon will be successful in claiming the throne, at least because that sets him up as a target for Daenerys once she comes to Westeros.

But where does that leave Cersei? The end of ADWD sets her up as an agent of chaos, so it seems a bit of a waste to depose her so swiftly.

This is one reason why I think she might end up serving as a catalyst for a "Scouring of the Shire"-type scenario toward the end of ADOS. 

Aegon:

Aegon's Blackfyre status is so far not confirmed in-text, but it is something that I support. As for Varys, he doesn't outright lie to Kevan.

Kevan says: "Aegon? Dead. He's dead." To which Varys responds, "No. He is here." Which is technically true, it's just that Kevan is talking about Rhaegar's son Aegon, while Varys is fixated on the very current rise of Aegon Mopatis/Blackfyre.

This is his primary goal in confessing stuff to Kevan. Not to reveal "hey, I'm lying to the whole realm!" Instead, this moment lets Varys reveal himself as the ideologue he has always been. This is the "hero's narrative" he's been secretly fighting for all these years. So while he's certainly trying to convey to Kevan that he's a canny schemer, he's also revealed himself to be a hopelessly deluded Romantic, who is placing a misguided faith in a boy who is woefully unprepared for the role he's been set up for. It won't end well.

 

12 hours ago, EggBlue said:

No. but that doesn't mean she won't try to cause chaos by murdering Tyrells in their beds or something

If I recall correctly it was 1 - 1/5 month

 

If it's not already , it should be by the first chapters of the winds. otherwise the whole freaking freezing promised long winter will be nothing significant

If you're referring to his conversation with Kevan , I don't think it should be counted as lie since he talks about this Aegon anyway. who ever he really is.

I think that part was meant for the reader. 

 

8 hours ago, Brynden"Bloodraven" Rivers said:

We'll miss you @Daenerysthegreat. 

1. Cersei has no power in KL and will certainly flee KL to Casterly Rock after Aegon attacks.

2. A month or so has passed.

3. Nymeria and Tyene were commanded to leave a book ago. Doesn't mean they immediately left. Also the kingsroad is precarious.

4. No, Kevan doesn't mention it, but it could happen.

5. I don't understand your last question.

Thank you for your answers. 

I guess I'll leave now. Bye bye everyone see you next September 

[BlackLightning]

@Daenerysthegreat Wait don't leave yet I haven't made my post yet.

[BlackLightning]

13 hours ago, Daenerysthegreat said:

Will cersei be allowed to rule again after her walk? No one in the small council seems to think so. Can she have any power left

Kevan seems to think Jaime is dead? How much time has passed since the last Jaime chapter. In the chapter before this the moon was crescent and now it's full. 

Why are nymeria and tyene taking so much time to arrive? They left a book ago. 

Winter is finally here, does it mean that the blackwater is frozen now? 

If aegon is fake why did varys lie? If aegon is real why varys bother with telling the truth? 

@EggBlue, @WhatAnArtist!, @Lord Varys,  @Jaenara Belarys, @Odej, @Phylum of Alexandria, @BlackLightning

I just want some these to these questions(preferably 4 or 5).I will be back September at my next re read. 

 

 

1. Will Cersei have any power left? Yes. Kevan is dead (murdered in what should be the safest building in Westeros) which would make her the de facto Lannister of King's Landing. Granted, there aren't that many Lannister soldiers in King's Landing but she'd be the leader of them all. Also, with Kevan out of the way, she could call Lannister soldiers out of the Riverlands and back to King's Landing and be able to plausibly excuse. Now, will Cersei ever be allowed to rule again? No, not in King's Landing. She'll scheme, jockey and bump heads with the Tyrells, the Sand Snakes and the High Septon before Aegon attacks. And she'll flee the city when he does. Tommen would be the first of Cersei's remaining children to die (the official end of the Lannister-Tyrell alliance) and Myrcella, who will be crowned as the first ruling queen of Westeros (even if it is only for a fortnight), will be the last to die.
2. I think Jaime has been gone only for two weeks minimum or maximum a month and a half. Going from a crescent moon to a full moon does not make a full month.
3. Nymeria, Tyene and Myrcella did not leave a whole book ago. They left half a book ago. I expect them to get to King's Landing by Cersei's second chapter. All I know is that the chapter they do arrive is going to be epic. LOL...the anticipation of the drama that will ensue.
4. Will the Blackwater freeze? I doubt it. I think the Blackwater Rush will freeze. But Blackwater Bay won't. Well, never mind, there's a good chance that this Long Night does cause large bodies of brackish waters to freeze over. There'll definitely be glaciers and blocks of ice of all sizes popping up which -- of course -- makes sea travel awful. In either case, it's too early. If the Blackwater freezes, it'll be in A Dream of Spring
5. I, for one, think it's a lot more interesting if Aegon is a fake. Not to say that it wouldn't be interesting if he were really Prince Aegon, son of Rhaegar Targaryen and Elia Martell; because it would be. Very morally grey and intense. Fake Arya, real Aegon. Unlike the first Dance where it is a clear case of black and white, the second Dance could be a lot more fraught and painful. But a hostile and scary Targaryen response to a underhanded Blackfyre takeover causes a lot more mayhem and drama than another Targaryen vs. Targaryen civil war. Dynasties do change names and faces over the years. The Blackfyres are a legitimate cadet branch of the Targaryen family...and women are not allowed to inherit the Iron Throne if there is any kind of male relative around. Plus, Aegon being a Blackfyre (or the child of Varys and/or Mopatis, some other distant Valyrian relative or just some random fraudulent peasant boy) more clearly paints Varys and Illyrio as villainous puppetmasters (which they are). If you go "Aegon is real but Dany rejects him anyway," then Dany becomes the villain of the story. If you go "Aegon is real but Dany is tricked into believing otherwise" or "no one is ever able to figure out if Aegon is real or not" then Dany becomes a tragic hero to the audience and a villain to everyone in-universe. And either she becomes the big bad villain for the rest of the story (very unlikely) or she is only the big bad wolf until she has a wake-up call and redeems herself.

[Jaenara Belarys]

14 hours ago, Daenerysthegreat said:

Will cersei be allowed to rule again after her walk? No one in the small council seems to think so. Can she have any power left

Kevan seems to think Jaime is dead? How much time has passed since the last Jaime chapter. In the chapter before this the moon was crescent and now it's full. 

Why are nymeria and tyene taking so much time to arrive? They left a book ago. 

Winter is finally here, does it mean that the blackwater is frozen now? 

If aegon is fake why did varys lie? If aegon is real why varys bother with telling the truth? 

1. Probably not, I highly doubt anyone would be able to rule effectively if they walked buck naked in front on an entire city

2. I mean, with all the information presented, it's a fair conclusion. He rode or walked off, and hasn't been seen since. As for the timeline....I honestly don't know

3. They left half a book ago, winter is approaching and they might have to go through the rainwood (I don't recall, need to look at a map), rain and dirt roads don't mix. Besides, they have a fairly large party probably lots of wagons and stops. Travel in medieval times on land did take a fair bit of time

4. I think, as @BlackLightning said, we'll get frozen stuff in ADOS. The freezing of the Blackwater seems to have only happened once (not that means it won't happen again, the WWs are coming

5. My headcanon is that Varys wants his kin (I think he's the brother of Serra, and they're both Brightflames, while Illyrio is a....Blackfyre, maybe) on the IT, so a little bit of lies is nothing to him. As for "bothering to tell the truth", an essential part of Aegon taking the throne is that people believe he's actually Aegon

 

See you next September. Enjoy Harry Potter, I liked it a lot. 

 

 

[Nevets]

Cersei:  Define rule.   I expect she will win her trial by combat.  Given Kevan's death, she is the de facto leader of the Lannisters.   The Lannisters are a force to be reckoned with, even in their diminished state.  So she will have some role.  Her presence, alongside the Tyrells and Sand Snakes, will make for a combustible situation.  Which is just what Martin likes. 

Jaime:  I  doubt he is actually dead.  His body has yet to appear, and I don't see the BwB hiding his death.  So I think they are keeping him around for something.  It won't be Red Wedding 2.0.  There is no way he will do that, even by force.  But I can see him rescuing the Frey prisoners taken at the Red Wedding.  "These are my men and I'm here to take custody.  Turn 'em over". 

I do think he will die soon, though.  Unless he is the valonqar, which I doubt, he isn't really necessary for anything. 

Aegon:  I think he is probably fake.  His story is too fishy, and I trust Varys as far as I can throw him.  Which is not at all.  I think he is a flash in the pan.  He'll burn bright, then be gone.

As for his suitability, he is lacking in leadership skills and experience.  Both Jon and Daenerys have experience in leading.  They have made mistakes (who hasn't?) but have done a lot of good as well.  They are the future leaders. 

I didn't even get a mention in the OP .  I'll miss you anyway.

[WhatAnArtist!]

11 minutes ago, Nevets said:

As for his suitability, he is lacking in leadership skills and experience.  Both Jon and Daenerys have experience in leading.  They have made mistakes (who hasn't?) but have done a lot of good as well.  They are the future leaders. 

Yes, but everyone has to start somewhere. Jon and Dany didn't start out their stories having any leadership ability either.