How does the Iron Bank (IB) get its money back?

[WhatAnArtist!]

7 hours ago, Frosted Lucky Charms said:

The loans to Stannis and Jon were very bad calls on the part of Nestoris. 

Agreed. As much as I like all three characters, and want them to succeed, from a purely rational perspective they aren't in good positions at all and Nestoris made a truly awful financial investment, seeing as how there's a very high chance it will be a failed venture. Nestoris should have just gone to the Tyrells after being rebuffed by Cersei.

[Megorova]

8 hours ago, WhatAnArtist! said:

Nestoris made a truly awful financial investment, seeing as how there's a very high chance it will be a failed venture. Nestoris should have just gone to the Tyrells after being rebuffed by Cersei.

Tycho never ever talked or met with Cersei, the Iron Bank had sent to King's Landing a different agent - Noho Dimittis. Which means that Tycho went to Stannis to negotiate with him the return of the Iron Throne's debt to the IB, and that Noho was sent to try for the last time to make the Lannisters-Baratheons to pay, and if they don't - to kill Tommen. Noho didn't went to KL to negotiate, he went there to give a final warning, and then to act, if that warning won't be heeded.

The thing is - just think about it - the IB didn't had to send an envoy to Cersei/Tommen/Kevan/etc., just to remind them that the Crown owns money to the IB, and that they haven't been paying % that they were supposed to pay. Because they - the representatives of the Crown, are well aware of it, even without any reminders. The payments of % stopped after Robert's death, or maybe even some time before it, so at least since late 298, and now it's the middle of 300. So Joffrey and then Tommen haven't been paying % of what they own to the IB, for at least 18 months. So the IB are well aware that the Lannisters-Baratheons are not going to pay, and that's why they sent Tycho Nestoris to Stannis - to negotiate with him the return of the money that the Crown owns to the IB, and Noho was sent to KL to kill those who refused to pay up - Tommen, as the "representative" of those people.

And Tycho made with Jon a deal very favourable for the IB - he made Jon indebted to the IB (and the Faceless Men Guild, and the Sealord of Braavos).

The IB/FM know who Jon really is, and that he is at The Wall

(that's what Jaqen/Syrio Forel - the First Sword of Braavos/personal bodyguard and second-in-command of the Sealord, was doing at the Red Keep. From the Black Cells to the Hand's Tower leads a secret passage, using which Tyrion killed Tywin, and Jaqen went thru Ned's papers, when Ned was the King's Hand. And now Jaqen/Alchemist/fPate is at the Citadel, probably searching there for Lyanna's wedding certificate, or Jon's birth certificate),

and they know that Jon will become a dragonrider

(they know this from the prophecy, and because the current Sealord and his relatives are dragonseeds - descendants of Aegon IV and Bellegere Otherys - a granddaughter of the Sealord of Braavos. So one of them is a dragondreamer (the current Black Pearl of Braavos), like Daenys the Dreamer was, and one of them is a cat-skinchanger (the current Sealord of Braavos/Arya's Kindly Man/the leader of the FM, Jaqen's/Syrio's boss), like was Aegon's mother - Larra Rogare. And Arya is also a cat-skinchanger, because she is also a descendant of Larra and Aegon, thru Aegon's bastards - on her father's side (Ned's) thru Mya Rivers (Bloodraven's sister and the mother of Melantha Blackwood - paternal grandmother of Rickard Stark) and on her mother's side (Catelyn's) thru the Bastard of Harrenhal/the founder of House Whent - Minisa Whent's paternal grandfather (Minisa was Hoster Tully's wife and the mother of Catelyn, Lysa and Edmure).

So later they can ask Jon to give them a dragon egg (or even a little baby-dragon), layed by Jon's dragon - Viserion (because Viserion, same as Rhaegal, is a girl, and Drogon is a boy. That's why even Drogon's egg was bigger than the other two, and why Drogon was always bigger than his "sisters"). So thru the deal with Jon, the Braavosi will finally get their own dragon - the feat that they were unsuccessfully trying to accomplish for the past 246 years, since 54 AC, when Elissa Farman brought to Braavos those three dragons eggs from which eventually hatched Drogon, Viserion and Rhaegal.

Also, this ->

https://awoiaf.westeros.org/index.php/Tycho_Nestoris#The_Winds_of_Winter

"Tycho is brought before Stannis, and the two sign an agreement, with Stannis acknowledging the Iron Throne's debt to the Iron Bank and Tycho agreeing to loans to Stannis. Stannis has Ser Justin Massey escort Tycho and "Arya Stark" back to the Wall. Afterwards, Justin is to accompany Tycho back to Braavos.^[3]"

Tycho won't go back to Braavos, instead he will kill Justin Massey, and then will return to Stannis' camp in Justin's "skin".

 

So, how does the IB get its money back? -> they send to non-payers people like Noho Dimittis - to deliver the final warning, and then to assassinate the non-payer.

[Jaenara Belarys]

Oh, for the love of God! More cat skinchanging and crackpot? I suppose you should take a look at this, @Willam Stark. You'll have a ball. 

Nobody knows that Jon's a Targaryen, especially the FM (I suppose you'll say that either Ned or Lyanna was actually a Faceless Man). This is one of the most ridiculous things I've ever seen, and I've seen a doozy. Your "evidence" is along the lines of a prophecy and bloodlines that haven't even been confirmed yet! *applauds. You've reached new heights of tinfoil and crackpot. 

Furthermore, do you think that Dany will allow him to hand off an egg, much less a dragon to the Braavosi? I highly doubt even Jon would do that! 

[Willam Stark]

8 minutes ago, Jaenara Belarys said:

Oh, for the love of God! More cat skinchanging and crackpot? I suppose you should take a look at this, @Willam Stark. You'll have a ball. 

Reading her, almost everyone knows about Azor Ahai's prophecy and contribute to its realization.

Soooooooooo boring...

[Jaenara Belarys]

1 minute ago, Willam Stark said:

Soooooooooo boring...

Indeed. I have a headache and stomachache from last night (prime rib and one cup of red wine. And turkey. And corn. And apple salad. And bread. And a Coke ) and frankly the sheer nuttiness set me off. 

[Megorova]

2 hours ago, Jaenara Belarys said:

Nobody knows that Jon's a Targaryen, especially the FM (I suppose you'll say that either Ned or Lyanna was actually a Faceless Man).

No. But. ->

Oswell Whent and Gerold Hightower were the FM. That's who killed Arthur Dayne, the Sword of the Morning, Azor Ahai's descendant and the best swordsman in the world.

If Jon was at the Tower of Joy, during Ned's confrontation with the three Kingsguards, then that was because the two of them (those that were FM) were intending to take baby-Jon to Braavos (he was born at Starfall, and then they took him and a wet-nurse Wylla from there, but left the dying Lyanna behind), for him to hatch those three dragon eggs that the Braavosi had. The FM were intending to do the same thing when one of them - a Kingsguard Rickard Thorne, in 130 AC kidnapped Maelor Targaryen - little son of Aegon II.

In Aerys' Kingsguard three out of seven were also FM - Jonothor Darry in addition to the other two, Whent and Hightower. Jonothor was staying with Aerys for the most part of the Robert's Rebellion, and on the night of Dany's conception poisoned Aerys with basilisk blood, that's why the King was berserking and biting his wife, when he raped her.

So the FM are aware of Jon's real parentage, because two of them were present at the time of his birth. And Oswell was with Rhaegar during Lyanna's supposed kidnapping, and near Lyanna thru the following 9 months. So he had plenty of time and opportunities to send a message to his comrades and to inform them, and thru them his boss - the Sealord, about what was going on.

Also, if I remember correctly, when Rhaegar supposedly kidnapped Lyanna, with him were 6 other people, so 4 more aside from Arthur and Oswell. In my opinion, those 4 others possibly were:

1. Ashara Dayne, her boyfriend -

2. Howland Reed (to act as a guide who will lead them onto the Isle of Faces, where then was performed a double wedding ceremony),

3. Shiera Seastar (possibly disguised as a septa, same as she was during Barristan Selmy's confrontation with the Kingswood Brotherhood, and saved Jeyne Swann, who then seduced Barristan after slipping to him a love potion, provided to her by Shiera, who was posing as Jeyne's septa. Shiera possibly was with Rhaegar to perfom the wedding ceremony in the faith of the Seven) and

4. maester Marwyn (who later was asisting Lyanna during Jon's birth. Same as he was assisting Queen Rhaella with Dany's birth, and Dany with Rhaego's birth).

Casting my speculative theories aside - Howland Reed does know that Jon is a Targaryen. So you're wrong that nobody knows.

[Julia H.]

I don't think "getting their money back" is the only way the Iron Bank can benefit from a deal made with a would-be king. Money is not their only goal. Money and power are related, and the IB has both and probably wants both. 

"Each of the Nine Free Cities had its bank, and some had more than one, fighting over every coin like dogs over a bone, but the Iron Bank was richer and more powerful than all the rest combined."

Money brings power and power brings more money. We are told what their reputation is:

"When princes failed to repay the Iron Bank, new princes sprang up from nowhere and took their thrones."

This reputation of the IB is probably enough to prevent most princes from failing to pay up. The ones that do fail - there must be such princes time and again - will be used as examples in order to keep up the reputation. Whether the available "new princes" are able to pay or not is another question, but the IB will probably know what contract they should make, which can involve payment of the money owed by the previous regime, and if not at once, then over a certain period of time, with a suitable interest added to the original sum. But it can also be a totally new arrangement where the debt is not paid back (directly) with money but with advantegous trade contracts, concessions, political "favours" or positions of power, all of which can benefit the IB. 

"If Stannis was not too stiff-necked to accept their terms, the Braavosi would give him all the gold and silver he required, coin enough to buy a dozen sellsword companies, to bribe a hundred lords, to keep his men paid, fed, clothed, and armed."

The "terms" that Stannis is offered are not necessarily about paying back a certain sum of money (if he had that money, he might not need the IB), but may also be about something that Stannis as king could give and the IB could use. Similarly, keeping the NW alive may be in the interest of the IB even beyond the idea of getting back their money with an interest.

 

 

[John Suburbs]

On 11/25/2021 at 1:39 AM, Loose Bolt said:

I assume that Pentos do a lot of trade with Braavos. So collapsing economy of Braavos would cause huge problems to those businessmen who trade with B. After all their customers cannot pay their bills anymore. It is even possible that economies of Braavos and Pentos are so connected that lack of that trade will cause massive problems to whole economy of Pentos. So there should be many very angry people in Pentos if that trade with Braavos disappears.

If those angry people even suspect that Illyrio had caused that collapse of trade and economy he would either be killed or he would only lose all his assets and becomes persona non grata in Pentos.

I don't see anything in the text that suggests Pentos is any more or less dependent on Braavosi trade than any other city. If anything, they are rivals. With Braavos down, Pentos gains control of the trade routes in the northern Narrow Sea, which means Eastwatch, White Harbor, Gulltown, even Maiden Pool and Saltpans, all the way to King's Landing, not to mention Lorath, Saath, Morash and Ibben. I should think this more than makes up for anything that Braavos can provide. Which, now that I think of it, probably isn't anything that Pentos could not get anywhere else.

Plus, this trade will not "disappear." It will simply diminish Braavos' ability to dominate other cities, like Pentos. The few people who would be angry with this will be a pittance compared to the multitudes who are now liberated from Braavosi control and can start trading where, when and however they please, including in the most lucrative business of all: slaves. Plus, Pentos gets to have its own army again. Illyrio will be their hero, and he will likely dominate Pentosi politics for the rest of his life, if he doesn't already.

[Universal Sword Donor]

On 11/24/2021 at 7:31 AM, Falcon2909 said:

How does Illyrion benefit from the Iron Bank collapsing?

He doesn't say the IB collapses. He says the Iron Throne collapses because the IB eventually stops funding it and / or the rebels.

[Loose Bolt]

3 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

With Braavos down, Pentos gains control of the trade routes in the northern Narrow Sea, which means Eastwatch, White Harbor, Gulltown, even Maiden Pool and Saltpans, all the way to King's Landing, not to mention Lorath, Saath, Morash and Ibben. I should think this more than makes up for anything that Braavos can provide. Which, now that I think of it, probably isn't anything that Pentos could not get anywhere else.

Main problem is that Pentos has so weak navy that it cannot stop free cities with stronger navies taking over those trade routes or capturing active Pentosi trade ships. In fact I assume that just now ships of Pentos are protected by navy of Braavos. Naturally they do not that without some kind of compensation but Pentosi have similar deals with B than they had with Dothraki Khalasars. Or businessmen of Pentos had to pay about protection to Braavos just to stay in business.

In theory Pentos could build navy strong enough to compete with Myr, Tyrosh and Lys. But that would take so long that Pentos would not survive long enough to do that. Or I assume that as soon those 3 free cities mentioned above and many private pirates and slavers see that they do not had to worry about navy of B anymore they would start attacking against both Braavos and Pentos and their trade ships. After all major protection against those potentially hostile cities and other potential predators do not exist anymore or is too weak to do anything.

Besides it is possible that if Braavos cannot pay salaries of sailors and marines anymore at least some of warships and sailors of those ships will go rogue. Or there might be massive pirate problem. After all crews of those ships had to support themselves somehow and one possible solution for them is to become pirates.

So too weak Braavos could cause massive problems to Pentos unless that city could somehow build and man enough warships to replace navy of B quickly enough to stop navies of Myr, Tyrosh and Lys and all other pirates and slavers. Or if Pentos is too weak to stop those potential predators she and her people could became prey and victim of those predators.

4 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

Illyrio will be their hero, and he will likely dominate Pentosi politics for the rest of his life, if he doesn't already.

Unfortunately for Illyrio he would became target of Faceless Men. Or he would not live long to enjoy his victory.

[John Suburbs]

19 hours ago, Loose Bolt said:

Main problem is that Pentos has so weak navy that it cannot stop free cities with stronger navies taking over those trade routes or capturing active Pentosi trade ships. In fact I assume that just now ships of Pentos are protected by navy of Braavos. Naturally they do not that without some kind of compensation but Pentosi have similar deals with B than they had with Dothraki Khalasars. Or businessmen of Pentos had to pay about protection to Braavos just to stay in business.

In theory Pentos could build navy strong enough to compete with Myr, Tyrosh and Lys. But that would take so long that Pentos would not survive long enough to do that. Or I assume that as soon those 3 free cities mentioned above and many private pirates and slavers see that they do not had to worry about navy of B anymore they would start attacking against both Braavos and Pentos and their trade ships. After all major protection against those potentially hostile cities and other potential predators do not exist anymore or is too weak to do anything.

Besides it is possible that if Braavos cannot pay salaries of sailors and marines anymore at least some of warships and sailors of those ships will go rogue. Or there might be massive pirate problem. After all crews of those ships had to support themselves somehow and one possible solution for them is to become pirates.

So too weak Braavos could cause massive problems to Pentos unless that city could somehow build and man enough warships to replace navy of B quickly enough to stop navies of Myr, Tyrosh and Lys and all other pirates and slavers. Or if Pentos is too weak to stop those potential predators she and her people could became prey and victim of those predators.

Unfortunately for Illyrio he would became target of Faceless Men. Or he would not live long to enjoy his victory.

Well, this will be the first step in rebuilding both its army and navy. Right now, the treaty forbids this. I don't know of any protection that Braavosi extends to Pentos, nor any compensation, so please post if you have it. And if Pentoshi businessmen have to pay protection money to Braavos just to stay in business, don't you think they would welcome a change that allowed them to keep their money?

The free cities have been warring against one another for hundreds of years and all of them have managed to survive to this day. Plus, look at the current situation: all of the major sellsword companies are either in Westeros or heading to Westeros, or in Meereen. Volantis is undergoing a change in political leadership and may very well be undergoing a slave revolt. Myr, Lys and Tyrosh are on the verge of war again, if they can find the soldiers. Pentos will be fine, but yes, they will have to rebuild their military capability quickly, which they should be able to do given the new trade opportunities arising in Braavos' absence.

Piracy is a perennial problem. If Braavosi go rogue, it will be a problem for everyone, but mostly for the southern cities where the cargoes tend to be spices, fabrics and gold, rather than dried fish and lumber.

Sorry, but your argument rests on the idea that Pentos is perfectly happy to remain a vassal state of Braavos forever, with no autonomy, no self-determination and surviving on whatever crumbs Braavos decides to leave it. People don't like being thralls. They want to live their lives as they want to, for their own benefit, not for others -- particularly when this state of affairs was foisted upon them under very dubious circumstances in a war they never actually lost. All of Pentos would rejoice if this were to be undone.

Nobody knows Illyrio is behind this, so there is no reason why he should be targeted by the FM.

 

 

[Only 89 selfies today]

On 11/22/2021 at 4:54 AM, Falcon2909 said:

>king acquires loan worth millions from IB
>king unable to pay back, refuses to, so IB funds rebellion
>rebels overthrow king, yet even they are unable to pay back the throne's loan, so IB funds another rebel leader
>and repeat...

 

How does the IB get its money back if they keep on funding rebellions? at that rate they would lose a lot of money and go bankrupt

I would not be shocked if the bank is the one behind the expedition to capture and sell the wildlings into slavery.  Westeros borrowed the money.  Westeros refuses to pay so they take its human resources and sell them like livestock.  All the bank needs is a signature from a legal authority in Westeros and they can treat the Wildlings like natural resources to harvest.  Roose and Cersei have this authority. 

[Light a wight tonight]

On 11/24/2021 at 4:31 AM, Falcon2909 said:

patchface and noho are fm?

Not necessarily. But they could easily be replaced by FM. Same end result.

[Loose Bolt]

14 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

Sorry, but your argument rests on the idea that Pentos is perfectly happy to remain a vassal state of Braavos forever, with no autonomy, no self-determination and surviving on whatever crumbs Braavos decides to leave it. People don't like being thralls. They want to live their lives as they want to, for their own benefit, not for others -- particularly when this state of affairs was foisted upon them under very dubious circumstances in a war they never actually lost. All of Pentos would rejoice if this were to be undone.

In my head canon Pentos is ruled by very small elite and most people living there do not have any real political power. For ruling elite status quo is vital. Or for them any chances could be more risky than profitable. Reason is that after any chance some people will win but there are  always some losers and those people who rule Pentos are already on top. So I assume most people in power do not want to endanger their own status by gambling with very high stakes.

 

14 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

The free cities have been warring against one another for hundreds of years and all of them have managed to survive to this day. Plus, look at the current situation: all of the major sellsword companies are either in Westeros or heading to Westeros, or in Meereen. Volantis is undergoing a change in political leadership and may very well be undergoing a slave revolt. Myr, Lys and Tyrosh are on the verge of war again, if they can find the soldiers. Pentos will be fine, but yes, they will have to rebuild their military capability quickly, which they should be able to do given the new trade opportunities arising in Braavos' absence.

Rebuilding strong navy should take years. After all one cannot build enough warships and training crews for them in shorter time. Until new navy of Pentos have much more warships than they have now whole Pentos and their ships are potential targets for any greedy people. If Braavos had economical problems at least some of those angry and hungry people would be Braavosi.

Besides if businessmen of Pentos had access to new trade routes they would need new ships and sailors for their trade ships. Or they would have to use some of their ship building capacity and limited sailor reserve for those new trade ships. So that would limit how many new warships they could build and man. Or at least make that process slower.

 

15 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

Plus, look at the current situation: all of the major sellsword companies are either in Westeros or heading to Westeros, or in Meereen

Pentos cannot hire them either. Or if someone tried to raid or even conquer Pentos (like certain old mercenary dude who wants Pentos) ruling elite of that city would have huge problem. After all Pentos do not have have standing army.

Creating that army would take time and would potentially chance political status quo in Pentos. Or leaders of that army could do what Napoleon did. Petty noble made himself emperor of France. So it is possible that ruling elite do not want to take a risk that army could be used against their interests and simply do not allow anyone to raise an army. Or they are terrified about possibility that someone would use that army for a coup.

[John Suburbs]

7 hours ago, Loose Bolt said:

In my head canon Pentos is ruled by very small elite and most people living there do not have any real political power. For ruling elite status quo is vital. Or for them any chances could be more risky than profitable. Reason is that after any chance some people will win but there are  always some losers and those people who rule Pentos are already on top. So I assume most people in power do not want to endanger their own status by gambling with very high stakes.

 

Rebuilding strong navy should take years. After all one cannot build enough warships and training crews for them in shorter time. Until new navy of Pentos have much more warships than they have now whole Pentos and their ships are potential targets for any greedy people. If Braavos had economical problems at least some of those angry and hungry people would be Braavosi.

Besides if businessmen of Pentos had access to new trade routes they would need new ships and sailors for their trade ships. Or they would have to use some of their ship building capacity and limited sailor reserve for those new trade ships. So that would limit how many new warships they could build and man. Or at least make that process slower.

 

Pentos cannot hire them either. Or if someone tried to raid or even conquer Pentos (like certain old mercenary dude who wants Pentos) ruling elite of that city would have huge problem. After all Pentos do not have have standing army.

Creating that army would take time and would potentially chance political status quo in Pentos. Or leaders of that army could do what Napoleon did. Petty noble made himself emperor of France. So it is possible that ruling elite do not want to take a risk that army could be used against their interests and simply do not allow anyone to raise an army. Or they are terrified about possibility that someone would use that army for a coup.

Sorry, I just can't drink this koolaid. When the ruling elite, who are very powerful men who know how to gain and wield political power, are subservient to a foreign power, they will do all they can to overcome that status quo. By your logic, Robert would never have overthrown Aerys because, win or lose, it was a grave risk to his status quo.

But thanks for the chat.

[Falcon2909]

But Martin doesn't ask the question what was Braavos's tax policy?

[Falcon2909]

17 hours ago, Light a wight tonight said:

Not necessarily. But they could easily be replaced by FM. Same end result.

What is this end result

 

On 11/30/2021 at 5:29 AM, Universal Sword Donor said:

He doesn't say the IB collapses. He says the Iron Throne collapses because the IB eventually stops funding it and / or the rebels.

The iron throne could turn to the bankers of myr volantis

[Light a wight tonight]

6 hours ago, Falcon2909 said:

What is this end result

That Tommen and/or Shireen are dead, whether Moho Dimmitis and Patchwork were Faceless Men or not. Strictly within the framework of Megorova's post. Not that I find her ideas convincing; her post reads a little too much like fanfic.

 

 

[John Suburbs]

On 11/26/2021 at 1:14 AM, WhatAnArtist! said:

Agreed. As much as I like all three characters, and want them to succeed, from a purely rational perspective they aren't in good positions at all and Nestoris made a truly awful financial investment, seeing as how there's a very high chance it will be a failed venture. Nestoris should have just gone to the Tyrells after being rebuffed by Cersei.

Both of these loans are signs that the bank is in financial trouble.

First, we look at the loan to the NW. When Jon first broaches the subject with Tycho, the answer is a hard no, no way, now how, impossible. Really? The wealthiest, most powerful bank the world has ever seen and it can't even spot a few thousand gold to supply a few shiploads of onions and neeps through the winter? Only after hours of negotiations did the impossible become possible, and later on we learn how: Jon is putting up the wildling treasures as collateral. Meager as these are, they represent an instant influx of cash to a bank that sorely needs it. I suspect the balance will be paid off in wood, which is highly valuable in Braavos but is found in abundance at the Wall, but that comes later.

Second, we have Stannis. We don't know how much the bank loaned, but it is probably quite substantial given the size of the army he will need to take the Iron Throne. Westeros is not Essos, where you only need to take one city to install a new triarch or archon. Stannis needs to fight his way through all seven kingdoms to take the crown. Right now, he is freezing his Baratheons off in the north, while most of the major sellsword companies are either at Meereen or with Aegon in the Stormlands. So his prospects are dim at best. If he dies, the bank is out that money, with no real champion in sight to recover the loans to the crown.

And that's when I suspect Illyrio and Littlefinger will launch the panic that will crash the Iron Bank for good.

[Loose Bolt]

23 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

Sorry, I just can't drink this koolaid. When the ruling elite, who are very powerful men who know how to gain and wield political power, are subservient to a foreign power, they will do all they can to overcome that status quo. By your logic, Robert would never have overthrown Aerys because, win or lose, it was a grave risk to his status quo.

If Pentos is a puppet state of Braavos those leaders would stay in power only as long they are supported by their Braavosi masters. Or I assume that they gained most of their power and wealth with support of navy of Braavos and Iron Bank. Besides it also very likely that most people who did not like idea about being puppets of Braavos either died or just disappeared. So weaker Braavos would mean that they would lose their power, wealth and potentially even their heads. Or they should be very motivated to keep existing status quo.

When Robert had only 2 choices either he rebelled and won that rebellion or he would have died. Or he either became a king or corpse. So keeping status quo would have been very bad idea for him.