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US Politics: Turkeys Available Here


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32 minutes ago, sologdin said:

The informed respondents have already spoken. 

fairly sure the discussion upthread concerns the politics of the case, rather than the verdict itself. 

Upthread?  Sure, maybe.  But @Ran had come back around to asking about informed respondents.  Politics has no necessary connection to people being well informed.

32 minutes ago, sologdin said:

that said, normally jurors have the least exposure to polemics in civil society regarding the question presented.  that's one major point of the rules of evidence--to disinform the jury. i find delicious the contradiction between 'marketplace of ideas' triumphalism in later first amendment cases and the totalitarian control of information in jury trials.  capitalism requires different types of stupid and different measures of mendacity at different times.  

I'm not sure, but it almost sounds like you think it is a bad thing that a jury be only concerned about justice for the individual defendant before them, and the facts and law relevant to that determination, and not whether this or that verdict will help this or that political cause. 

Even so, it is an open question whether jurors end up knowing less or more than the average citizen about political considerations.  Jurors are more likely to know more than the national average by virtue of the fact that they are members of the local community most affected.    The honest ones, might try (often unsuccessfully) to follow the judge's instructions and avoid exposure to media coverage, but this happens only after the judge's instructions.  The less scrupulous ones do as they please, and are now extra-attentive and interested.  Finally, all 12 of them are put into deliberations together.  They deliberate (in this case) for 25 hours, and all sorts of things that are none or our business may get said.

Edited by Mister Smikes
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16 minutes ago, IheartIheartTesla said:

Might be too off-topic for this thread, but I've heard a lot of scuttlebutt about how Trump allies and friends are trying to talk him out of a 2024 run; the main line of reasoning they are using is that he would lose and he doesnt like to be a loser.

On the flip side his private pollster thinks he will run and has a path to victory (not surprising considering the current situation but its still 3 years away)

I imagine Republicans really want to run someone like DeSantis who has Trump’s populism without Trump’s level of toxicity.  
 

:/

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6 minutes ago, Mister Smikes said:

But @Ran had come back around to asking about informed respondents.  Politics has no necessary connection to people being well informed.

We were talking about the Morning Consult poll, and that is the context that we were discussing. 

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17 minutes ago, Ser Scot A Ellison said:

So, if deliberately killing a million innocents to save the lives of another billion the million should be killed forthwith and without hesitation?

That’s utilitarian calculus but calculus that is easier to apply in abstract discussions than in actuality.

400 million US citizens presenting themselves to the UN, then silently removing razors from beneath their tongues, and opening their throats in unison tonshow the power of their Aspect- Emperor Anasurimbor Bentham.

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4 minutes ago, Ran said:

We were talking about the Morning Consult poll, and that is the context that we were discussing. 

But we already know the results of that poll, yes?  I thought you had moved on to something a bit different ... whether the results might have been different had the respondents been better informed.  To which I responded that the jury verdict seems a pretty good indication as to what informed respondents think.

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8 minutes ago, 1066 Larry said:

400 million US citizens presenting themselves to the UN, then silently removing razors from beneath their tongues, and opening their throats in unison tonshow the power of their Aspect- Emperor Anasurimbor Bentham.

What?  I never finished that series.

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2 hours ago, Varysblackfyre321 said:

Yes. Why do you think a guy going  “I’ll kill you” and attempting to grab a firearm isn’t a legitimate cause for someone to fear for their life? 

I don’t believe every person is obliged to suffer a beating if they have means to defend themselves no. 

Also, again Rosenbaum was talking about killing, and tried to take Rittenhouse’s gun. A beating was not the worst thing Rittenhouse could reasonably fear.

----

Would he be attacked without the rifle? Probably still yeah.

Rossenbaum seemed to be antagonizing people with guns and asking to be shot, so I'm skeptical that he would have paid ah attention to Rossenbaum sans rifle.  

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8 minutes ago, Mister Smikes said:

But we already know the results of that poll, yes?  I thought you had moved on to something a bit different ... whether the results might have been different had the respondents been better informed.  To which I responded that the jury verdict seems a pretty good indication as to what informed respondents think.

Eh sometimes juries get it wrong.

ex. Oj getting off

or the guy who murdered emmet til getting off.

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28 minutes ago, Ser Scot A Ellison said:

I imagine Republicans really want to run someone like DeSantis who has Trump’s populism without Trump’s level of toxicity. 

Personally I think that DeSantis would be very hard for Biden to defeat in 2024.  Obviously a lot can change in 3 years, but he's a scary candidate and a scary man if he takes office. 

If Trump runs, he'll almost assuredly win the primary.  But I think he's a much weaker candidate vs Biden than Desantis.  And I do think it is still a real question whether Trump runs.  He'll 100% keep flirting with running and act like he's running, but if things are looking strong for Biden in early/mid 2023, he'll just slink off like the coward he is. 

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14 minutes ago, Maithanet said:

Personally I think that DeSantis would be very hard for Biden to defeat in 2024.  Obviously a lot can change in 3 years, but he's a scary candidate and a scary man if he takes office. 

If Trump runs, he'll almost assuredly win the primary.  But I think he's a much weaker candidate vs Biden than Desantis.  And I do think it is still a real question whether Trump runs.  He'll 100% keep flirting with running and act like he's running, but if things are looking strong for Biden in early/mid 2023, he'll just slink off like the coward he is. 

I can see that and I agree DeSantis is frightening.  A competent Trump is the worst of all worlds.

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2 minutes ago, Ser Scot A Ellison said:

I can see that and I agree DeSantis is frightening.  A competent Trump is the worst of all worlds.

Competent is being generous. He just lacks the national stain Trump has unless you're a political junkie outside of Florida. 

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And I do think it is still a real question whether Trump runs.  He'll 100% keep flirting with running and act like he's running, but if things are looking strong for Biden in early/mid 2023, he'll just slink off like the coward he is. 

 

Trump isn't going to slink off. He'll pick a successor and try to remain relevant as long as the base allows this.

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14 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said:

Competent is being generous. He just lacks the national stain Trump has unless you're a political junkie outside of Florida. 

He’s more competent at running a Government than Trump… I agree that isn’t saying much.  But Trump was hampered by his own ego and impulse control problems.  DeSantis seems like he’d be better able to work the bureaucracy in a way that could be damaging.

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1 hour ago, Ser Scot A Ellison said:

So, if deliberately killing a million innocents to save the lives of another billion the million should be killed forthwith and without hesitation?

That’s utilitarian calculus but calculus that is easier to apply in abstract discussions than in actuality.

WHOA PULLING OUT THE BIG HYPOTHETICAL GUNS EARLY

Geez scot, you don't just jump straight for the auto fister, give us some foreplay first

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6 minutes ago, Ser Scot A Ellison said:

He’s more competent at running a Government than Trump… I agree that isn’t saying much.  But Trump was hampered by his own ego and impulse control problems.  DeSantis seems like he’d be better able to work the bureaucracy in a way that could be damaging.

Is he though? Fighting with school districts over mask mandates? Fighting with corporations over vaccine mandates? Signing legislation allowing motorists to run over protestors? Being deeply anti-business in a number of ways? Like what has he actually done that will sell well outside of Florida? 

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3 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said:

Is he though? Fighting with school districts over mask mandates? Fighting with corporations over vaccine mandates? Signing legislation allowing motorists to run over protestors? Being deeply anti-business in a number of ways? Like what has he actually done that will sell well outside of Florida? 

But this is still the lowest of bars to clear.  If Desantis can manage the competence of GWB, (and I think his track record indicates he can), then that would be vastly better than Trump's administration. 

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4 minutes ago, Maithanet said:

But this is still the lowest of bars to clear.  If Desantis can manage the competence of GWB, (and I think his track record indicates he can), then that would be vastly better than Trump's administration. 

That’s my point. Thanks.

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39 minutes ago, Maithanet said:

But this is still the lowest of bars to clear.  If Desantis can manage the competence of GWB, (and I think his track record indicates he can), then that would be vastly better than Trump's administration. 

Trumps competence was not the issue for Republicans. 

Trump doing crimes and advocating crimes - and more accurately being caught at it - was. 

I think yall are overstating immensely how unhappy anyone was with trumps administration or Trump on the r side. He is immensely popular, drives turnout in a way Republicans have never seen, and gave conservatives virtually every single thing they wanted in the way they wanted while making the system even more polarized and depressing turnout in dems. 

The only reason they would want DeSantis is the unproven and largely inaccurate idea that Trump will be a drag on the election or could potentially not win. 

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