What if Ser Rodrik had killed Ramsay ?

[frenin]

19 hours ago, BlackLightning said:

Roose never liked Ned.

Where is this stated??

 

20 hours ago, BlackLightning said:

However, he didn't have the strength to defy or rebel against Rickard or Brandon (especially not with Aerys alive) and he certainly was not powerful enough to go against Ned.

He could have revelled during the Robellion tho, he could have been a thorne in the rebels' hide and delay Ned's entry on the conflict for months if not years, effectively nullying him for Aerys's cause and bringing the rebels to a swift defeat.

 

 

20 hours ago, BlackLightning said:

It's because Robb was a child (or at least, he was to Roose) and Roose hates child rulers. According to him, child rulers are the bane of any and every noble house.

Robb scared Roose straight, however Ned never was military in a position similar to Robb. Which is why he switches sides. 

[Universal Sword Donor]

59 minutes ago, frenin said:

He could have revelled during the Robellion tho, he could have been a thorne in the rebels' hide and delay Ned's entry on the conflict for months if not years, effectively nullying him for Aerys's cause and bringing the rebels to a swift defeat.

Rebelling during RR would have been tantamount to suicide. Ned would have had his full strength marshaling and Roose would have been in a situation no different than House Dustin, where they had to go but gave as few people as possible. Nothing was going to delay Ned marching south. The crown wanted his head as well, and the best way to prevent that was linking up with Jon Arryn and Robert by going south.

[frenin]

10 hours ago, Universal Sword Donor said:

Ned would have had his full strength marshaling and Roose would have been in a situation no different than House Dustin, where they had to go but gave as few people as possible.

Dreadfort is noted to be incredibly difficult to overcome.

Ned would have been bloodied before even crossing the Neck to face an enemy that massively outnumbered him.

 

 

 

10 hours ago, Universal Sword Donor said:

Nothing was going to delay Ned marching south.

Except a rebellious vassal starting some shit. 

 

 

10 hours ago, Universal Sword Donor said:

The crown wanted his head as well, and the best way to prevent that was linking up with Jon Arryn and Robert by going south.

Both Robert and Arryn had to pacify their own lands before even thinking about doing anything else. I can't imagine why Bef would be different.

[BlackLightning]

11 hours ago, frenin said:

Where is this stated??

Nowhere.

But given that we have a lot of smallfolk and noblemen who -- despite far removed from the game of thrones or even Winterfell politics -- are willing to risk life and limb for Ned Stark's daughter years after his death, then I think it's safe to say that Roose Bolton didn't like Ned Stark.

Barbrey Dustin didn't like Ned Stark either but she liked Brandon and Lyanna...and they've been dead for much longer than Ned has been. Not only that but Lyanna and Brandon have a weaker connection to the Stark kids than Ned does.

12 hours ago, frenin said:

Robb scared Roose straight, however Ned never was military in a position similar to Robb. Which is why he switches sides. 

I don't think that's true.

If Robb scared Roose straight, then why the Battle of the Green Fork? Why was Roose Bolton in talks with Tywin Lannister about betraying Robb Stark before word was received of Robb reneging on a betrothal to a Frey girl?!

Remember, this was happening as early as A Clash of Kings. Well before the Battle of the Blackwater.

[frenin]

6 hours ago, BlackLightning said:

then I think it's safe to say that Roose Bolton didn't like Ned Stark.

Seems to me that this is an example of false dichotomy.

 

 

6 hours ago, BlackLightning said:

If Robb scared Roose straight, then why the Battle of the Green Fork

What about it?? Roose followed Robb's plan to the letter.

Robb's willing to cut heads off after Duskendale but he not once mentioned the Green Fork.

 

 

6 hours ago, BlackLightning said:

Why was Roose Bolton in talks with Tywin Lannister about betraying Robb Stark before word was received of Robb reneging on a betrothal to a Frey girl?!

Was he?? The talks afaik start after Jaime's talk and after the Blackwater everyone could tell who he likely victor in the south was.

 

 

6 hours ago, BlackLightning said:

Remember, this was happening as early as A Clash of Kings. Well before the Battle of the Blackwater

Now, I will need a citation for that.

[Terrorthatflapsinthenight9]

10 hours ago, frenin said:

Dreadfort is noted to be incredibly difficult to overcome.

Ned would have been bloodied before even crossing the Neck to face an enemy that massively outnumbered him.

 

 

 

Except a rebellious vassal starting some shit. 

 

 

Both Robert and Arryn had to pacify their own lands before even thinking about doing anything else. I can't imagine why Bef would be different.

Rebelling alone against Ned while all of the other houses were loyally following him would have been retarded. This wasn't the same situation than in the Vale and the Riverlands where many houses chose to stay loyal to the Targaryens before being subjucated by their overlords.

House Bolton would have found itself completely surrounded and outnumbered by Manderly, Hornwood, Umber and Karstark forces and even with the Dreadfort's defenses Ned would have just have had to let a smaller portion of the northern army to keep Roose confined in the Dreadfort while the majority of the northern army went south.

And Roose is too cautious and calculating to have done something so pointless and stupid.

[frenin]

1 hour ago, Terrorthatflapsinthenight9 said:

Rebelling alone against Ned while all of the other houses were loyally following him would have been retarded. This wasn't the same situation than in the Vale and the Riverlands where many houses chose to stay loyal to the Targaryens before being subjucated by their overlords.

House Bolton would have found itself completely surrounded and outnumbered by Manderly, Hornwood, Umber and Karstark forces and even with the Dreadfort's defenses Ned would have just have had to let a smaller portion of the northern army to keep Roose confined in the Dreadfort while the majority of the northern army went south.

And Roose is too cautious and calculating to have done something so pointless and stupid.

Bolton is one of Ned's most powerful vassals. 

Not having them would not only have been a serious blow but leaving a garrison to keep his army checked would have significantly delayed Ned and thinned his own army.

Given how tight the the levies of the rebels counted and how tight their victories were, every man was necessary.

Case in point. Aerys's side looked clearly like the winning side till the Bells. Yet no sign of disloyalty.

[Terrorthatflapsinthenight9]

31 minutes ago, frenin said:

Bolton is one of Ned's most powerful vassals. 

Not having them would not only have been a serious blow but leaving a garrison to keep his army checked would have significantly delayed Ned and thinned his own army.

Given how tight the the levies of the rebels counted and how tight their victories were, every man was necessary.

Case in point. Aerys's side looked clearly like the winning side till the Bells. Yet no sign of disloyalty.

The Manderlys, the Hornwoods, the Karstarks and the Umbers too; with the Manderlys in particular having more knights than any other house in the North and larger economical means at their disposal than the Boltons; and the Bolton lands are surrounded by them meaning that they could be quickly invaded and the Bolton forces quickly overpowered by them and reduced to take refuge in the Dreadfort. 

Plus Roose would have no other northern house to support him and no succesion crisis or an Ironborn invasion or Theon having taken Winterfell throwing the North in chaos for him to take advantage of. Not counting that there would be no loyalist force coming to the south to help him with Moat Calin being firmly controlled and defended by Stark forces even if the Stark forces were delayed long enough. The chances of the loyalist managing to invade the North successfully and come to help Roose would have been extremely slim. 

Rebelling against Ned while the northerner army was still in the North would have been incredibly stupid from Roose's part and he would have gotten nothing from doing it aside from suffering brutal justice for his betrayal. 

 

[frenin]

1 hour ago, Terrorthatflapsinthenight9 said:

The Manderlys, the Hornwoods, the Karstarks and the Umbers too; with the Manderlys in particular having more knights than any other house in the North and larger economical means at their disposal than the Boltons; and the Bolton lands are surrounded by them meaning that they could be quickly invaded and the Bolton forces quickly overpowered by them and reduced to take refuge in the Dreadfort. 

They could be quickly invaded, not so sure about overpowered and you're proving my point. Every northman not in the south is another nail in a vastly outnumbered rebel coffin.

 

1 hour ago, Terrorthatflapsinthenight9 said:

The chances of the loyalist managing to invade the North successfully and come to help Roose would have been extremely slim. 

The royalist have naval superiority. They can swiftly sail to White Harbor and from there it's pretty easy.

[Terrorthatflapsinthenight9]

2 hours ago, frenin said:

They could be quickly invaded, not so sure about overpowered and you're proving my point. Every northman not in the south is another nail in a vastly outnumbered rebel coffin.

 

The royalist have naval superiority. They can swiftly sail to White Harbor and from there it's pretty easy.

On the contrary.

It's extremely unlikely that the Boltons wouldn't be overpowered by the total combined forces of the Umber, Hornwood, Karstark and Manderlys are 3-4 times the number of men Roose can muster at best, the Boltons are only 1/10 of the Northern forces at best, and as I've said the Boltons are surrounded by these Stark loyalists and there is nothing to disrupt the Stark command this time. 

Plus the loyalists having naval superiority doesn't mean that much when the northmen have foiled all foreign invasions even those by the sea, that the transport capacity they have by ships remained limited, that they'd have to deal with the Riverlands, Stormlands and Vale first which is far from aquired, especially with the very defensible Vale, not counting that Ned would have almost all of his forces, the support of his people and the home advantage to push back any loyalist invasion. 

If Roose didn't betray Ned back then it's surely because he knew that it was too dangerous and foolish to try. He's far too cautious and calculating to do something so hare-brained, he's not Cersei.

[frenin]

1 hour ago, Terrorthatflapsinthenight9 said:

It's extremely unlikely that the Boltons wouldn't be overpowered by the total combined forces of the Umber, Hornwood, Karstark and Manderlys are 3-4 times the number of men Roose can muster at best, the Boltons are only 1/10 of the Northern forces at best, and as I've said the Boltons are surrounded by these Stark loyalists and there is nothing to disrupt the Stark command this time.

So, they go into enemy territory and bleed themselves and then they go packing south... Sounds like a plan, especially since Bolton doesn't even need to offer battle, just pin keep them occupied.

 

 

1 hour ago, Terrorthatflapsinthenight9 said:

Plus the loyalists having naval superiority doesn't mean that much when the northmen have foiled all foreign invasions even those by the sea

 

Indeed at a time they too were a naval power. Not having a single boat means that they can enter your land unopposed and the Northern coast is too vast to properly patrol.

And Ned can't fight a war on two fronts anyway.

 

 

1 hour ago, Terrorthatflapsinthenight9 said:

If Roose didn't betray Ned back then it's surely because he knew that it was too dangerous and foolish to try. He's far too cautious and calculating to do something so hare-brained, he's not Cersei.

Well obviously.

But if Roose was as much as disloyal as he's been painted. He'd throw a hail mary instead of going to a war the rebels were bound to lose had it not been because Mace and his 80k army and navy were pinned in the Stormlands.

I'm bored of this convo anyway, so agree to disagree. 

[Terrorthatflapsinthenight9]

17 minutes ago, frenin said:

So, they go into enemy territory and bleed themselves and then they go packing south... Sounds like a plan, especially since Bolton doesn't even need to offer battle, just pin keep them occupied.

 

 

 

Indeed at a time they too were a naval power. Not having a single boat means that they can enter your land unopposed and the Northern coast is too vast to properly patrol.

And Ned can't fight a war on two fronts anyway.

 

 

Well obviously.

But if Roose was as much as disloyal as he's been painted. He'd throw a hail mary instead of going to a war the rebels were bound to lose had it not been because Mace and his 80k army and navy were pinned in the Stormlands.

I'm bored of this convo anyway, so agree to disagree. 

An enemy territory that is far less unknown to them than the North is to the southerners yes. Not counting that the Boltons aren't the crannogmen they're not masters of guerilla. And also that there is no Ironborn invasion nor Hornwood crisis nor Theon having taken Winterfell. 

Plus Ned would just have to assign a portion of his troops to siege the Dreadfort while the great majority of his forces can go south. 

The northmen don't need a fleet to repel loyalist forces back to the sea anyway, with them having the home advantage, the White Knife being solidly guarded by the Manderlys, plus the North's large size would be a handicapp for the loyalists too not counting  all the tremendous logistical difficulties that loyalists would have to deal with in the North. 

And indeed Ned can't fight a war on two front but he doesn't have to, with the Boltons in the Dreadfort not being enough of a threat to be counted as a full front allowing him and the majority of his forces to focus on defending the North from invaders.

Plus Roose, ignoring the very thin odds of him getting support from the south in time, wouldn't be able of ruling or holding the North in the long run anyway, not without a Stark in his family hence the fake Arya for Ramsay to marry after the Red Wedding. That's something he was aware of and another one of the reasons why he'd recognise the foolishness of trying to rebel against Ned.

The odds and situation were clearly not in his favor during the rebellion, it was only during the War of the Five Kings with Robb being too trusting of him unlike Ned who was always wary of him, Theon's taking of Winterfell and the murder of "Bran and Rickon' throwing the North into chaos and undermining Robb's cause, him being in contact with Tywin, Sybell Spycer and the Freys starting from Harrenhal that he got the chance he wanted to betray house Stark. 

[Terrorthatflapsinthenight9]

Anyway back to the subject. 

With Ramsay being dead the situation would have certainely been far more favorable for the Starks, we don't know if Theon would have still had murdered the farm boys and disguised them as Bran and Rickon but it's at least sure that the Boltons' ability to betray and sabotage their countrymen's war effort would have been hugely reduced and that Ser Rodrik would have taken Winterfell back from Theon and found Bran and Rickon and sent the message to Robb and Catelyn that they are alive.

Maybe this wouldn't have prevented Catelyn from realising Jaime or Robb sleeping with and marrying Jeyne Westerling in time, but this would have still been a symbolic bag of oxygen for the Stark cause and with WF retaken and Ramsay neutralized Rodrik could have fully focused on rallying and organising the northern forces still present in the North to push the Ironborn back from the North. 

[Universal Sword Donor]

19 hours ago, frenin said:

Dreadfort is noted to be incredibly difficult to overcome.

Ned would have been bloodied before even crossing the Neck to face an enemy that massively outnumbered him.

"Hey Greatjon, can you keep this isolated castle under siege for a few years?"

19 hours ago, frenin said:

Except a rebellious vassal starting some shit. 

Nah he'd have left a small besieging force behind.

19 hours ago, frenin said:

Both Robert and Arryn had to pacify their own lands before even thinking about doing anything else. I can't imagine why Bef would be different.

Right but the difference being the North had never particularly liked the Targs and had just seen their beloved Rickard and his heir presumptive for little and less reason after the crown prince "kidnapped" Lyanna.

In the end it really makes little and less sense for Roose to rebel during RR. He'd be isolated from any potential allies until the crown could send reinforcements forward by ship.