Covid-19 #42 Nu Tsunami Incoming

[Heartofice]

44 minutes ago, Padraig said:

Same vaccine.  Just more of it generates more antibodies.

My question was more, 2 doses with the second dose taken 6 months ago, compared to 3 doses with the 3rd taken very recently (first 2, 6 months ago).

Or is it 2 doses (with the second taken very recently) compared to 3 doses with the 3rd take very recently (first 2 6 months ago).  Its an important difference.

 

This is what I'm struggling with when it comes to boosters. It seems very obvious that if you give everyone a booster then there is an immediate uptick in the amount of antibodies and ability to fight off infection. But antibodies always drop down over time and immunity becomes more of a T cell response over the longer term. 

So my question is why is 2 doses against Omicron bad but 3 is good? Is it simply the fact that antibody response has dropped due to the time period or is it something particular about 3 doses. Otherwise why wouldn't we need 4 does in a couple of months time? 

Also is it the spacing of the jabs? Isn't there a better immune response the longer you leave your jabs in the long term? Is it that we are doing multiple incredibly close together and seeing worse results in the longer term. 

And what are the results of 2 jabs + previous infection? 

[JoannaL]

25 minutes ago, Heartofice said:

This is what I'm struggling with when it comes to boosters. It seems very obvious that if you give everyone a booster then there is an immediate uptick in the amount of antibodies and ability to fight off infection. But antibodies always drop down over time and immunity becomes more of a T cell response over the longer term. 

So my question is why is 2 doses against Omnicrom bad but 3 is good? Is it simply the fact that antibody response has dropped due to the time period or is it something particular about 3 doses. Otherwise why wouldn't we need 4 does in a couple of months time? 

Also is it the spacing of the jabs? Isn't there a better immune response the longer you leave your jabs in the long term? Is it that we are doing multiple incredibly close together and seeing worse results in the longer term. 

And what are the results of 2 jabs + previous infection? 

IIRC they compared 4 weeks after 2 jabs and 4 weeks after three jabs, meaning it is not waning activity over time, but the 3. jab really changed the outcome with omicron

[Heartofice]

1 minute ago, JoannaL said:

IIRC they compared 4 weeks after 2 jabs and 4 weeks after three jabs, meaning it is not waning activity over time, but the 3. jab really changed the outcome with omicron

Sure, but the question is whether it really is just a temporary 'boost' or is it creating any real meaningful long lasting protection. 

I'm just not getting my head around why 3 is such a magical number against the new variant compared to 2. Is it that you are literally just boosting the system? If so, then that boost is surely going to wear off pretty quickly if the effect of 2 jabs is so bad in comparison. 

[JoannaL]

Just now, Heartofice said:

Sure, but the question is whether it really is just a temporary 'boost' or is it creating any real meaningful long lasting protection. 

I'm just not getting my head around why 3 is such a magical number against the new variant compared to 2. Is it that you are literally just boosting the system? If so, then that boost is surely going to wear off pretty quickly if the effect of 2 jabs is so bad in comparison. 

I would imaging they got it "wrong" at the beginning. There are some vaccines were you do need three jabs for full protection. The vaccines were developed quickly so it makes sense that they didnt try everything in the medical trials and two jabs worked fine for the wildtyp

[Heartofice]

7 minutes ago, JoannaL said:

I would imaging they got it "wrong" at the beginning. There are some vaccines were you do need three jabs for full protection. The vaccines were developed quickly so it makes sense that they didnt try everything in the medical trials and two jabs worked fine for the wildtyp

Thats quite possible. 

I'm still just a little confused about it. It says that 3 jabs creates a 25 fold increase in antibody response against the new variant. Is there info on what 3 jabs antibody response is against say.. delta? Is it different? 

All I'm saying is that it seems pretty obvious that if you give some a booster of a vaccine you would quickly see an increased antibody response. But then antibody response is not the same thing as long lasting protection AFAIK. 

Why is 2 jabs working so badly against Omicron, but 3 jabs of the exact same vaccine is totally fine. We've already been told that we can expect to get annual jabs for Covid, which would make sense for vulnerable people or to protect against newer variants, but it doesn't fill me with huge buckets of confidence is someone like Pfizer is telling us that all we need to do is take just one more jab and its all much better.

[VigoTheCarpathian]

8 minutes ago, JoannaL said:

I would imaging they got it "wrong" at the beginning. There are some vaccines were you do need three jabs for full protection. The vaccines were developed quickly so it makes sense that they didnt try everything in the medical trials and two jabs worked fine for the wildtyp

This also jives with Moderna seeming to provide better longer-term protection than Pfizer, since the vaccine amount is double.

I don’t think 3 jabs is a magical number - there is not a “no more shots” endgame. 

If you agree that it’s going to be endemic, it is logical likely going to look like the flu, which requires a yearly shot, some years the shot will not be 100% attuned to/effective the circulating variants.  

[Heartofice]

41 minutes ago, VigoTheCarpathian said:

 

I don’t think 3 jabs is a magical number - there is not a “no more shots” endgame. 

If you agree that it’s going to be endemic, it is logical likely going to look like the flu, which requires a yearly shot, some years the shot will not be 100% attuned to/effective the circulating variants.  

No I agree, it would be expected to have annual shots for some people. What I'm not able to get is why there is such a difference between 2 and 3 shots, when it is the same vaccine? Really they are talking about antibodies as well, which is the more short term response the body has to viruses, which is what I would expect from any booster. 

---

Edit: From what I can tell from brief reading, Omicron requires a much higher level of antibody response to neutralise it compared to Delta, which is why a booster is much more protective against it. The booster might also provide some level of Tcell muscle memory as well which is vital. That kind of answers my question. 

However at the same time, that antibody response is going to die down relatively quickly, which does pose the question as to when they are expecting another jab. 

[Varysblackfyre321]

On 12/7/2021 at 3:29 AM, Clueless Northman said:

It's hard to consider people talking about ethics, individual freedoms and human rights when opposing measures as anything else than concern-trolling - these same people never gave a fuck about the fate of most of our societies, they didn't give a fuck when others died by hundreds of thousands, didn't give a fuck when whole countries had to be put under lockdowns because a few egotistical uber-invidualistic assholes can't wear a mask or respect a quarantine.

The mentality for many of these people imho has showcased an embrace of eugenics?

Why can’t just the elderly and those with sever underlying health conditions just take measures to protect themselves and leave healthy unbothered?

[HoodedCrow]

When I first heard about Covid, there was no vaccine. I got a flu shot, and a pneumonia vaccine a few weeks later. My interest was in putting my immune system on yellow alert and getting my cells something to do and perhaps get T cells some exercise. It might have been the wrong thing to do and it would be nice to know. Vaccines give your system a little workout. Some make you immune for a very long time, some specific ones need boosters at intervals.if you are immune system is compromised, your shields are down and your photon torpedos are offline. You may need to stay out of meteor showers and dock the ship. It’s time for a refit. Then you may need a convoy.

[williamjm]

1 hour ago, Heartofice said:

I'm still just a little confused about it. It says that 3 jabs creates a 25 fold increase in antibody response against the new variant. Is there info on what 3 jabs antibody response is against say.. delta? Is it different?

I do remember reading recently about a study that concluded that after 3 jabs the antibody response against delta was greater than at the same time interval after 2 jabs (which is probably not surprising).

46 minutes ago, HoodedCrow said:

When I first heard about Covid, there was no vaccine. I got a flu shot, and a pneumonia vaccine a few weeks later. My interest was in putting my immune system on yellow alert and getting my cells something to do and perhaps get T cells some exercise. It might have been the wrong thing to do and it would be nice to know.

It feels like this couldn't hurt, and you definitely wouldn't want to get flu and Covid at the same time.

1 hour ago, JoannaL said:

I would imaging they got it "wrong" at the beginning. There are some vaccines were you do need three jabs for full protection. The vaccines were developed quickly so it makes sense that they didnt try everything in the medical trials and two jabs worked fine for the wildtyp

If 2 jabs gives good enough protection then it did make sense at the time to concentrate on using a finite supply of doses for that.

[williamjm]

I just this saw this report from the Pfizer press conference which had an interesting detail that a modified vaccine which had been designed with Alpha in mind produced 400% more antibody activity against Omicron than the vaccine currently being used. This maybe makes sense since I think Omicron is meant to be genetically closer to Alpha/Beta than it is to Delta. Presumably a vaccine designed with Omicron in mind would be even better, although there's an obvious risk of chasing the latest variant since a few weeks ago we would have thought focusing on Delta would make more sense.

I wonder if this means people who were previously infected with Alpha will have better immunity against Omicron?

 

[Zorral]

"With every shift, I see the strain people sick with Covid-19 put on my hospital. Their choice to not get vaccinated is not personal. It forces patients with ruptured appendixes and broken bones to wait for hours in my emergency department; it postpones surgeries for countless other people and burns out doctors and nurses."

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/12/08/opinion/covid-michigan-surge.html

Quote

 

.... Like in the rest of Michigan, an overwhelming majority of patients in our hospital are unvaccinated, including 98 percent of acute critical care patients. Given that only about 62 percent of Michigan residents have had at least one dose of vaccine, lagging behind the national rate by about nine points, I fear we won’t see an end to the tide of sick people anytime soon, and hospitals can absorb only so many surges.

Michigan’s health infrastructure isn’t the only one teetering on the verge of collapse. The Arizona Department of Health Services reports 94 percent of beds in the state are full, with Covid-19 patients making up about a third of those hospitalized. In Texas between mid-January and October, unvaccinated people made up a vast majority of reported Covid-19 cases and deaths there. The domino effect of strained operations carries a cost, and the data shows that patient safety is suffering under the crush of too many sick people and not enough health care workers.

As immunity from vaccinations wanes, infections will most likely increase if a persistently large number of people remain unvaccinated. A vaccine mandate is the only way to break the endless cycle of surging infections that in turn push hospitals to the brink, and to save lives in conservative, pro-Trump communities like mine where Covid-19 misinformation is pervasive and death rates are far higher than in other communities. ....

 

 

[HoodedCrow]

A good vaccine match would be like getting the exact coordinates of your enemies, with your weapons boosted. Masking and social distancing are like shields and cloaking:) K’plah.

[Padraig]

1 hour ago, williamjm said:

I just this saw this report from the Pfizer press conference which had an interesting detail that a modified vaccine which had been designed with Alpha in mind produced 400% more antibody activity against Omicron than the vaccine currently being used.

Now that is very interesting. 

I remember somebody posted a link to a paper that was talking about the dangers of modifying vaccines to deal with different variants.  I never read it because of a lack of time but it wasn't the greatest of headlines.

3 hours ago, Heartofice said:

However at the same time, that antibody response is going to die down relatively quickly, which does pose the question as to when they are expecting another jab. 

That's a fair question.  I was thinking the same thing!

The rush to get boosters out seems to be partly expedience.  We don't want even more people sick during winter so give everyone a booster asap, even if they are only 3-4 months after their last dose.  It is only a temporary fix, as antibody levels will fall like they have always done so.

Figuring out a long term plan can wait till science has caught up with the emergency.  And it isn't winter anymore.

We still know so little.  People may get sick but remain quite protected by 2 doses when it comes to serious illness.  But governments are risk adverse.  Until they know for sure, everyone gets a booster!

4 hours ago, JoannaL said:

IIRC they compared 4 weeks after 2 jabs and 4 weeks after three jabs, meaning it is not waning activity over time, but the 3. jab really changed the outcome with omicron

Thanks!  Although, not good news.

I'm pretty sure that 2 doses was fine originally (with a booster after 6 months).  2 doses of an Omicron focused vaccine would probably work too.  Its just that we need 3 doses of original vaccine to deal with Omicron (with probably another booster after 6 months, unless we get a Omicron vaccine!).

[Caligula_K3]

I get the concern about variant chasing; by the time an omicron vaccine is ready in March, we might be on to rho. But since Omicron is clearly very different from OG COVID, and since it's so contagious that it's likely to become the main strain sooner rather than later, it makes sense to me to create a vaccine for it, since future mutations will probably come from it rather than another strain. But I'm not an immunologist so what the hell do I know.

Anyway, the news from Pfizer does... not seem great.

[Kalbear]

17 minutes ago, Caligula_K3 said:

I get the concern about variant chasing; by the time an omicron vaccine is ready in March, we might be on to rho. But since Omicron is clearly very different from OG COVID, and since it's so contagious that it's likely to become the main strain sooner rather than later, it makes sense to me to create a vaccine for it, since future mutations will probably come from it rather than another strain. But I'm not an immunologist so what the hell do I know.

Anyway, the news from Pfizer does... not seem great.

Its pretty great actually!

What would be bad is if omicron showed almost no reduction due to Pfizer. Instead what we see is that Pfizer that is topped off is almost as good as it was against delta prior to boosters, which was still quite good!

It could be better news, but its far better than most of the alternatives.

[Impmk2]

5 hours ago, Padraig said:

Is this the paper you were referring to here?  I couldn't find it in your link.

Yes. You found it. The link was under the preprints section. They may have moved it there recently - it was somewhat confusingly placed.

[williamjm]

52 minutes ago, Caligula_K3 said:

I get the concern about variant chasing; by the time an omicron vaccine is ready in March, we might be on to rho. But since Omicron is clearly very different from OG COVID, and since it's so contagious that it's likely to become the main strain sooner rather than later, it makes sense to me to create a vaccine for it, since future mutations will probably come from it rather than another strain. But I'm not an immunologist so what the hell do I know.

In the table I linked to one the previous I see there's an entry for 'Alpha/Delta mix' where they're presumably trying to make something that targets both, although it's noticeable that it's less effective against Omicron than the Alpha-only formulation.

I've heard that the manufacturers of the annual flu vaccines have a similar problem where they have to try to predict what flu strain to target many months in advance and how effective that year's vaccines will be depends on how that prediction turns out.

[HoodedCrow]

Yes, flu vaccines are like that. I get mine. I had the pneumonia shot. I had two Pfizer shots as directed. I will get a booster when directed. Throughout the years I had the diphtheria shot(great aunts died of this), polio( my uncle barely recovered from the disease), tetanus( duh), red measles, German measles, yellow fever, chickenpox( did not get it as a child) and smallpox. I want the Shingles vaccine, now that I had the chicken pox vaccine…my blood is said to be amazingly good now. I personally believe that high cholesterol is correlated to longevity( it is statistically and I refer you all to a Norwegian study and a Japanese study, so I’m not taking drugs to control it.)My smart doctor said that I should have been dead by 30… I’m…not. There are probably more. Don’t get them all at once:)

[Clueless Northman]

8 hours ago, williamjm said:

As 80% of epitopes in the spike protein recognized by CD8+ T cells are not affected by the mutations in the Omicron variant, two doses may still induce protection against severe disease

This imho is actually the best news about Omicron. Long-term protection against severe or life-altering disease. It basically means that many people, if not all those who aren't vulnerable, might be able to go on with 3 doses for a long time - assuming Omicron is milder, and future mutations won't make it deadlier but rather even milder.

Then (related to Heartofice astute questions) it most probably means that with 3 doses, T cells will be that much more effective. Like other 3-doses vaccines, I hope and kind of expect that most people will be good to go for a long time - after all, covid doesn't mutate as wildly and quickly as the flu. BTW, from what I remember of some study (so, most probably outdated and inaccurate), antibody reaction after 3 shots was at least 5 times bigger against Delta.

 

7 hours ago, BigFatCoward said:

My daughters ballet teacher had a class last Tuesday am where one person tested positive. Since then every single person in the class tested positive, and everyone in her Tuesday afternoon class other than one woman who was triple jabbed and has had a previous infection also tested positive.

Shit, this is close to measles-level of infection.