Covid-19 #42 Nu Tsunami Incoming

[Fragile Bird]

Lies, damn lies, and statistics?

[Varysblackfyre321]

2 hours ago, Altherion said:

The same values show up on, for example, the NPR vaccine tracker. What gives? It's not physically impossible that the majority of the vaccine hesitant West Virginians decided to get vaccinated (the absolute number of people is not that large), but what could have convinced them all to go and do it in the span of a few weeks?

Fear of a new variant tend give an uptic in vaccinations.

[Padraig]

There are some concerns regarding CDC numbers.  Partly blaming boosters.

https://khn.org/news/article/cdc-senior-covid-vaccination-rates-appear-inflated/

Quote

CDC officials said the agency may not be able to determine whether a person is receiving a first, second or booster dose if their shots were received in different states or even from providers within the same city or state. This can cause the CDC to overestimate first doses and underestimate booster doses, CDC spokesperson Scott Pauley said.

Quote

For nearly a month, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s online vaccine tracker has shown that virtually everyone 65 and older in the United States — 99.9% — has received at least one covid vaccine dose.

That would be remarkable — if true.

But health experts and state officials say it’s certainly not.

[HoodedCrow]

I just read an article about a Japanese researcher who is using ostrich ( they are immune from some diseases) eggs to generate a glow in the dark virus markers. It will be the next Spice from Dune?

[Zorral]

NY state's governor implements indoor biz mask mandate across the entire state, for a month.  But not until Monday.  That horror show called Santa Fest comes to town tomorrow.  It will be like that anime con, super spreading omicron, delta, etc.

https://www.nydailynews.com/coronavirus/ny-covid-hochul-implements-state-mask-mandate-20211210-k35psg7ijjfjddc3oiz3rlrlea-story.html

She's already, earlier this week, ordered deployment of National Guard medical personnel to the hospitals across the state that are overwhelmed with covid.  It's not even so much there aren't beds -- there are.  What there isn't is medical staff to care for the covid patients.  Which means everybody else with other illnesses and conditions can't get any treatment at all.

[Mlle. Zabzie]

13 minutes ago, Zorral said:

NY state's governor implements indoor biz mask mandate across the entire state, for a month.  But not until Monday.  That horror show called Santa Fest comes to town tomorrow.  It will be like that anime con, super spreading omicron, delta, etc.

https://www.nydailynews.com/coronavirus/ny-covid-hochul-implements-state-mask-mandate-20211210-k35psg7ijjfjddc3oiz3rlrlea-story.html

She's already, earlier this week, ordered deployment of National Guard medical personnel to the hospitals across the state that are overwhelmed with covid.  It's not even so much there aren't beds -- there are.  What there isn't is medical staff to care for the covid patients.  Which means everybody else with other illnesses and conditions can't get any treatment at all.

Santa Con.  Oh Santa Con.  It's a blight on my December with or without Covid.  I hate Santa Con.  I think it's worse than the Anime convention because the whole purpose is to imbibe copious amounts of alcohol over a number of different bars, and so mask wearing will be non-existent.  If it didn't hurt other people indirectly, I would say participants deserve what they get.

[Altherion]

3 hours ago, Padraig said:

There are some concerns regarding CDC numbers.  Partly blaming boosters.

https://khn.org/news/article/cdc-senior-covid-vaccination-rates-appear-inflated/

Thanks, that is probably at the root of the West Virginia data. They definitely have the suspicious 99.9% of seniors flag.

[Impmk2]

First estimates of real world vaccine efficacy vs Omicron out of the UK. (poster is the lead COVID-19 epidemiologist at the UK Health Security Agency)

 

Pfizer holding up much better than expected tbh. But ouch, those AZ numbers.

[Fragile Bird]

A friend of mine originally got the first shot from AZ, but when we stopped using it here in Canada her second was Moderna. She got her booster on Monday, also Moderna, I need to ask how it went.

[williamjm]

1 hour ago, Impmk2 said:

First estimates of real world vaccine efficacy vs Omicron out of the UK. (poster is the lead COVID-19 epidemiologist at the UK Health Security Agency)

Pfizer holding up much better than expected tbh. But ouch, those AZ numbers.

It's probably a good thing that so many of the people in the UK who had double AZ have now had a MRNA booster given those numbers. We're approaching 1/3 of the total population being boosted, although there's still a long way to go.

[Padraig]

1 hour ago, Impmk2 said:

First estimates of real world vaccine efficacy vs Omicron out of the UK. (poster is the lead COVID-19 epidemiologist at the UK Health Security Agency)

Pfizer holding up much better than expected tbh. But ouch, those AZ numbers.

Thanks.  Interesting.  If I read that correctly, right after 2 doses, you have similar level of effectiveness against both Delta and Omicron.  But effectiveness tails off very quickly, so that after 3 months it is down to around 50% for Omicron (falling to 30% after 6 months), while still 80% for Delta after 3 months and 60% after 6.

A third shot does close the gap, and you are back to around 75%.  But given how quickly effectiveness dissappears after 2 doses, I wouldn't be optimistic after when a 4th is required.  Possibly around the time that Pfizer/Biontech has said they could deliver a new vaccine (i.e. March).

Edited to add: it will be interesting if Moderna is a little better against Omicron also.  The US may be the only country with large populations vaccinated with Moderna though.

[RhaenysBee]

Okay this is getting ridiculous. Not to say that it hasn’t been ridiculous thus far, but we are certainly on a new level of ridiculous. I believe in vaccination and I believe in applying every single measure of protection (get the jabs, wear a mask, social distance, abide by the occasional lockdown rules). I also understand that the scientific study of things, including new pathogens, takes time and I have every respect for the scientist and medical experts who worked tirelessly to develop and test vaccines and medication to control the damage covid has been doing. 

But at a certain point, one just can’t help but wonder, isn’t there a rational limit to what we can and should do? Because to my ignorant understanding it seems like nature has us on a wild goose chase. The virus has always been and will always be one step ahead of us. So what exactly are we going to do? Get a some jab three times a year for the every damn letter of the Greek alphabet which will have mutated into the next by the time its jab is even available? It’s just getting too too too damn much to wrap your brain around and I’m honestly exhausted. Oh and I really really really can’t wait to see the docu series about what the hell is happening and why in the 2040 selection of Netflix, though I do hope they will be bankrupted by that time by some new technology. 

As you can tell, I am pissed off at the world, and I want a damn break. I apologize for the outburst. 

 

[Impmk2]

55 minutes ago, williamjm said:

It's probably a good thing that so many of the people in the UK who had double AZ have now had a MRNA booster given those numbers. We're approaching 1/3 of the total population being boosted, although there's still a long way to go.

Yeah she did put the caveat that the AZ sample size wasn't big due to most being boosted at this stage.

I'm worried about here in Australia where basically all over 60s are AZ vaccinated, and boosters aren't available to the vast majority of them yet (sticking to a strict 6-month gap so far).

Omicron is expected to be the dominant variant in Scotland and Demark inside the next 7 days. That's insanely fast.

Hoping omicron really is attenuated. Hospital, ICU admissions and deaths are rising in South Africa, though nothing like as fast as previous waves. My instinct is that this is just due to prior exposure / vaccination protecting from severe disease, and not any kind of actual attenuation of the virus.

 

[Clueless Northman]

Moderna was supposed to stay more effective a bit longer than Pfizer, against Delta. I'd expect it to fare a little bit better for a bit longer against Omicron. Then of course, the main questions are: What about T-cells after 3 MRNA doses? How bad Omicron actually is when you've been boosted months ago and get infected? If Omicron turns out to be truly milder than any previous variant, then I don't think a 4th dose will be required in the next year, unless variant Tau or Khi fucks us up and evades vaccines...

Thankfully, mom got boosted this morning at long last. Will get mine in a few weeks when officially allowed - then I had 2 Moderna 6 weeks apart, so basic protection is a bit better than 2 Pfizer 3 weeks apart.

[Impmk2]

15 minutes ago, Clueless Northman said:

 What about T-cells after 3 MRNA doses? How bad Omicron actually is when you've been boosted months ago and get infected?

Not sure about 3 doses but t-cells should hold up well:

 

 

Side note: I do enjoy how twitter has basically become the platform for scientists to share early results.

Edit: Whoops wrong tweet - was meant to share the spike only (vaccination) data

[Fragile Bird]

It’s being reported that of the 43 Omicron cases reported in the US so far, ‘most’ were fully vaccinated and 1/3 had had a booster shot.

[Mr. X]

8 hours ago, Mlle. Zabzie said:

Santa Con.  Oh Santa Con.  It's a blight on my December with or without Covid.  I hate Santa Con.  I think it's worse than the Anime convention because the whole purpose is to imbibe copious amounts of alcohol over a number of different bars, and so mask wearing will be non-existent.  If it didn't hurt other people indirectly, I would say participants deserve what they get.

I want to like this three times, but I can't. Instead, I liked it, quoted it, and will like my own quote post (if I can -- I have no idea how these things work).

[HoodedCrow]

It is an homage to Coca Cola, isn’t it;)?

[A Horse Named Stranger]

Not exactly hard corona news, but still a bit I'd like to share, because it shows the beauty and creative power in the German language. 

So a new word for our beloved anti-vaxx, tinfoil hatters was born on this day in December on the internet.

And it was Wichswichtel. It's a compound word. A Wichtel is a tiny mythical creature, like a gnome, or a house elve. Something like that, so you get the idea. And the first part, ah, well, let's just say, I'd translate it as wankmidget. Altho, with this translation a bit of the Christmassy character of the Wichtel gets lost.

Anyway, it made my day, and felt like sharing it.

[TrueMetis]

Hey so when did people get the dumbass idea that vaccines are or can be 100% effective? Which is entirely impossible. Cause I've never heard anyone claim such a thing previously, and I remember distinctly when the vaccine came out how the news said it was a damn near miracle they were 90%+ effective when reasonably we could hope for something in the 70-80% range as our best case scenario.