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Russian Games: 120,000-140,000 Russian Troops on the Ukrainian border…


Ser Scot A Ellison

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12 minutes ago, A True Kaniggit said:

Also, can someone here educate me?

I’ve seen a few instances on this forum of calling Ukraine, “The Ukraine” as if it was a territory and not a country in it’s own right. Isn’t that offensive?
 

I mean, I might be a little worried if another country started calling my country, “The America” as if it was a province to be annexed. 

Agreed.  Using “the Ukraine” is implying Ukraine isn’t a State in its own right.

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4 hours ago, Clueless Northman said:

So basically, the key issue here is: how to make all sides accept current borders and make sure they're not going to expand and invade the others? This requires some kind of non-aggression treaty offering guarantees that all countries will be safe from the others, otherwise they're just going to end up in an arms' race and war becomes increasingly likely.

Ukraine should never have surrendered its Nuclear weapons to Russia in exchange for Russian “promises”.  What reason, given Russian actions does Ukraine or any other Nation have to Trust Russia’s willingness to abide by a “treaty obligation”?

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8 hours ago, Clueless Northman said:

Then of course there are more external actors like US, China, Western Europe and whatever else, who don't have to fear military invasions and just want to improve their economic and strategic position without giving caring about other side's justified fears and without giving a fuck if Eastern Europe gets torched once again.

I don't think you are saying that Western Europe (and the US) doesn't care if Eastern Europe gets torched again. You are saying that they'd rather not have to worry about it.  Right?

It's good to be aware of history but at the same time, you can pretty much justify anything based on history.  Somebody could claim that the English are going to imminently invade Ireland given history.  I wouldn't advise believing that though.  Now, if you are fed a lot of propaganda on a daily basis, then you might believe a lot of things.

The one actor that most intrigues me in this drama is Turkey.  Annoyed Russia in Syria, gave Russia a bloody nose in Nagorno-Karabakh and is being really annoying in Ukraine.

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29 minutes ago, Padraig said:

I don't think you are saying that Western Europe (and the US) doesn't care if Eastern Europe gets torched again. You are saying that they'd rather not have to worry about it.  Right?

It's good to be aware of history but at the same time, you can pretty much justify anything based on history.  Somebody could claim that the English are going to imminently invade Ireland given history.  I wouldn't advise believing that though.  Now, if you are fed a lot of propaganda on a daily basis, then you might believe a lot of things.

The one actor that most intrigues me in this drama is Turkey.  Annoyed Russia in Syria, gave Russia a bloody nose in Nagorno-Karabakh and is being really annoying in Ukraine.

What are the Turks doing?

Do you have an article to share?

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22 minutes ago, Ser Scot A Ellison said:

What are the Turks doing?

Do you have an article to share?

Apparently the military drones being purchased by the Ukranian military are from Turkey.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.newsweek.com/forget-us-military-aid-putin-eyes-threat-turkish-drones-ukraine-1660285%3famp=1

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5 hours ago, A True Kaniggit said:

 

I’ve seen a few instances on this forum of calling Ukraine, “The Ukraine” as if it was a territory and not a country in it’s own right. Isn’t that offensive?
 

I mean, I might be a little worried if another country started calling my country, “The America” as if it was a province to be annexed. 

They don't like it for that reason and we shouldn't do it, but it happens because it's pretty likely (in dispute by some Ukrainian scholars, but that seems a relatively modern development) that the name comes from a Slavic term for 'border country' ie rather literally a name of a region, rather than an implication that anyone saying it wants to invade it now. I get why Ukraine has officially requested people stop using it, but it was standard usage till 20 years ago and still common, so I think it's quite normal that some people still instinctively do it or just don't know. 

(which isn't to say I'm knocking you for bringing it up)

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11 hours ago, Werthead said:

From a moral point of view, it was not. The Baltic States have thrived in the EU and are much richer, much better-off and much stronger than they would have been.

Absolutely; the question is if it was a good idea to let them into NATO as well. Frankly, we're not talking about USSR and the Red Army that took Berlin, we're talking about post-collapse Russia. If EU as such isn't a deterrent enough, then the Union is quite a joke imho; when we have an alliance of basically the entire continent, we shouldn't need US help to deal with military matters, except when facing a superpower or a massive alliance. Of course I don't mean a deterrent as in the EU military stopping Russian troops a few miles from the border - NATO itself can't do that -, but because as a whole it should eventually be a military significant enough to cause trouble to Russian army - and most predators only attack when it's a safe bet, they don't like doubts and rarely risk getting mauled, even if they'd be eventually victorious. But you're totally right about the main effect of NATO membership: a few NATO troops act as a tripwire; Putin shouldn't risk it unless war is already ongoing or he feels totally cornered, he might be a jerk but he's not a lunatic, he's smart enough to have a high level of self-preservation.

 

7 hours ago, Ser Scot A Ellison said:

Ukraine should never have surrendered its Nuclear weapons to Russia in exchange for Russian “promises”.  What reason, given Russian actions does Ukraine or any other Nation have to Trust Russia’s willingness to abide by a “treaty obligation”?

Definitely, from a Ukrainian point of view. Though I'm not sure what would've happened if they kept them - I'm not sure even Yeltsin would've been ok with having nukes so close to his borders. Still, at the time, the key issue was dissemination, the West wanted as few nuclear countries as possible; pressure to give them away wasn't merely coming from Russia. Ukraine sending back the nukes to Russia is, imho, the biggest argument to use on Putin: he has a moral obligation to compromise and not to bully Ukraine like hell.

 

7 hours ago, Ser Scot A Ellison said:

Agreed.  Using “the Ukraine” is implying Ukraine isn’t a State in its own right.

Does it make any sense in English, grammatically? I mean, we can use "the United States", but people don't tend to say "the Germany" or "the China". I don't see the etymology as relevant - it's not the first or last area to basically mean "borderlands", most countries' names actually meant something a long time ago and we're not bothering with "the". It only fits in language that would systematically use articles with country names, like German or French.

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12 minutes ago, Clueless Northman said:

Does it make any sense in English, grammatically? I mean, we can use "the United States", but people don't tend to say "the Germany" or "the China".

Well, people say "the" United States because they are a bunch of states.  Just like the Czech Republic is a republic and the United Arab Emirates are a bunch of emirates.  Correspondingly, yeah, there's no reason to say "the" Ukraine.

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23 minutes ago, Clueless Northman said:

Definitely, from a Ukrainian point of view. Though I'm not sure what would've happened if they kept them - I'm not sure even Yeltsin would've been ok with having nukes so close to his borders. Still, at the time, the key issue was dissemination, the West wanted as few nuclear countries as possible; pressure to give them away wasn't merely coming from Russia. Ukraine sending back the nukes to Russia is, imho, the biggest argument to use on Putin: he has a moral obligation to compromise and not to bully Ukraine like hell.

It should be remembered that as part of the deal for Ukraine to hand over its nukes to Russia, the US, UK and France all promised to support Ukraine’s territorial integrity. An agreement which has conveniently forgotten.  

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44 minutes ago, Clueless Northman said:

 

Does it make any sense in English, grammatically? I mean, we can use "the United States", but people don't tend to say "the Germany" or "the China". I don't see the etymology as relevant - it's not the first or last area to basically mean "borderlands", most countries' names actually meant something a long time ago and we're not bothering with "the". It only fits in language that would systematically use articles with country names, like German or French.

I look at what I said and then Ser Scot's response to me.

What point are you trying to make here?

I realize that I'm confused. Are you agreeing with us both that "The Ukraine" sounds weird as hell?

Like "The Canada" or "The Thailand"

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54 minutes ago, DMC said:

Well, people say "the" United States because they are a bunch of states.  Just like the Czech Republic is a republic and the United Arab Emirates are a bunch of emirates.  Correspondingly, yeah, there's no reason to say "the" Ukraine.

Except for habit. Like PG stated above, it was quite common to add the article in front Ukraine. So I do find myself attaching the the to the Ukraine. It's always kinda difficult to unlearn things. 

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10 hours ago, A True Kaniggit said:

Also, can someone here educate me?

I’ve seen a few instances on this forum of calling Ukraine, “The Ukraine” as if it was a territory and not a country in it’s own right. Isn’t that offensive?

I have not seen it happen once in this thread, so not sure the problem here?

 

 

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10 hours ago, A True Kaniggit said:

I realize that I'm confused. Are you agreeing with us both that "The Ukraine" sounds weird as hell?

Weird as hell is even mild, it sounds downright wrong - as DMC said, you can't assume "the" applies to Republic/State or whatever, we're not talking about "the Ukrainian Soviet Republic". I'm not sure why it was used this way to begin with actually.

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1 hour ago, Clueless Northman said:

I'm not sure why it was used this way to begin with actually.


This is a complete guess, but absent seeing any other plausible theory I'd throw out the theory that it comes from the name Ukraine being introduced to formal English back in the day not by Ukrainans themselves, but by Polish and Czech/Slovak aristocrats or diplomats- those being the closest points of contact between Western Europe and the Slavic world- and since in those languages it's dealt with in a grammatically equivalent way (because the prefix 'u' makes it that way), in translating they added the definite article to try to achieve the same effect. Once it got into English that way the reason got largely forgotten since, well, most people using it don't speak Slavic languages, until Ukraine achieved independence and said 'wait that's not right, no thank you'. 

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13 hours ago, Ghjhero said:

It should be remembered that as part of the deal for Ukraine to hand over its nukes to Russia, the US, UK and France all promised to support Ukraine’s territorial integrity. An agreement which has conveniently forgotten.  

The United States and other countries have been providing Ukraine with logistical support and supplies and have condemned the annexation of Crimea (although there's also been arguments over Ukraine's traditional borders including Crimea or not due to the presence of the Russian naval base and the large pro-Russian population), so they haven't forgotten it. Whether Western countries would come charging in to defend Ukraine from a Russian invasion aimed at carving off more territory is unclear, but the arguments for Western troops to come in in response to a Russian land-grab of the entire country and a potentially massive humanitarian crisis (millions of people displaced westwards into Europe) would be stronger.

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Absolutely; the question is if it was a good idea to let them into NATO as well. Frankly, we're not talking about USSR and the Red Army that took Berlin, we're talking about post-collapse Russia.

NATO effectively negates the need for a common European army and the expensive duplication of effort that would entail. Also, NATO's guarantee of collective security was aimed against the Soviet Union but also applies elsewhere (see the USA invoking Article 5 to request assistance from allies post 9/11, which had nothing to do with Russia). Hell, Russia was in relatively serious talks to join NATO at one point, if relatively briefly.

The Baltic States basically exist on Russia's sufferance and, understandably, that is not a position they wished to live in any more. Joining NATO guarantees their independence, and it gives NATO more resources to call upon.

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Russian Amphibious troops in the Baltic are putting to sea.  It’s a long and dangerous haul (given the time of year) to attempt to transit to the Black Sea… but… this is not good:

https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/43902/russian-landing-ships-leave-baltic-sea-raising-concerns-that-ukraine-may-be-their-final-destination?fbclid=IwAR2RdgUEIzR_qOu33FJJrCeIeh7H4g17uVZ3sD4DsUdMBdGRvG8ROju2vVc

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The New York Times first report this, but here is an article from Reuters.

There are reports, denied by Russia of course, that they've been quietly reducing their personnel at their embassy in Kyiv and the consulate in Lviv. 

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The New York Times cited a senior Ukrainian official as saying that 18 people, mostly family members of Russian diplomats, had left Ukraine on Jan. 5. It said around 30 others left the embassy in Kyiv and the consulate in Lviv in western Ukraine over the next few days.

 

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