Ser Scot A Ellison Posted January 19, 2022 Author Share Posted January 19, 2022 1 hour ago, Maithanet said: Just go where? Into Ukraine? Just push the invasion. Yes. If we put NATO troops on the Russian/Ukrainian border would the Russian troops “go”? The UK has sent a plane load of “Next generation” anti-tank missiles to the Ukrainians. https://mil.in.ua/en/news/uk-has-assigned-to-ukraine-nlaw-anti-tank-system-video-of-the-mod/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ser Scot A Ellison Posted January 19, 2022 Author Share Posted January 19, 2022 Why are the Germans denying overflight privileges to UK aircrews delivering defensive arms to Ukraine? https://www.businessinsider.com/ukraine-uk-planes-long-detour-around-germany-deliver-weapons-2022-1?amp Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Chatywin et al. Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 6 minutes ago, Ser Scot A Ellison said: Why are the Germans denying overflight privileges to UK aircrews delivering defensive arms to Ukraine? https://www.businessinsider.com/ukraine-uk-planes-long-detour-around-germany-deliver-weapons-2022-1?amp Probably has something to do with their new pipeline with Russia. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ser Scot A Ellison Posted January 19, 2022 Author Share Posted January 19, 2022 17 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said: Probably has something to do with their new pipeline with Russia. So… as long as the LNG shows up they don’t care if Russia invades a neighbor? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clueless Northman Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 3 hours ago, Ser Scot A Ellison said: Just push the invasion. Yes. If we put NATO troops on the Russian/Ukrainian border would the Russian troops “go”? I would say that the numbers would matter. If that's just 500 troops on the border and a couple thousands in Kiev, even a paranoid Russian would see it's not an invasion force. On the other hand, having NATO troops on the border would basically be a stealth entry of Ukraine into NATO, and that would mean a major Russian reaction. But I don't see them invading or bombing NATO troops. Bombing to bits every Ukrainian military place which doesn't have NATO troops, on the other hand, would be highly possible. Anti-tank missiles probably would be of very limited use if things go bad; Russia will massively rely on artillery to hit Ukraine. That's what we must avoid at all costs, because it will end badly for most (only major power who might benefit is China), and very very badly for Ukraine. Sadly, the back-and-forth of military escalation is still going on, which is very bad news. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Toth Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 20 minutes ago, Ser Scot A Ellison said: Why are the Germans denying overflight privileges to UK aircrews delivering defensive arms to Ukraine? https://www.businessinsider.com/ukraine-uk-planes-long-detour-around-germany-deliver-weapons-2022-1?amp Our government unfortunately seems to be quite divided on the issue. Our Green Party foreign minister is currently in Moscow doing bold declarations that in the case of aggression Germany will put the axe to everything even if it will economically hurt us (pretty clearly alluding to Northstream, which the Greens would be quite happy to get rid of ever since its conception), the FDP interestingly is also urging to a hard stance, but the SPD chancellor Scholz seems content with handwringing and dodging a clear stance because the current gas shortage (that some speculate to be also the result of Russia trolling us to fasten the permits for Northstream) may cause public annoyance if it gets even worse and people spend the winter without heating. Though the article does point out that the British simply didn't ask, so maybe that's a bad example for this handwringing. That Germany is reluctant to deliver weapons however might have something to do with Green vice chancellor Habeck having been roasted during the pre-election phase for suggesting delivering weapons to Ukraine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ser Scot A Ellison Posted January 19, 2022 Author Share Posted January 19, 2022 8 minutes ago, Toth said: Our government unfortunately seems to be quite divided on the issue. Our Green Party foreign minister is currently in Moscow doing bold declarations that in the case of aggression Germany will put the axe to everything even if it will economically hurt us (pretty clearly alluding to Northstream, which the Greens would be quite happy to get rid of ever since its conception), the FDP interestingly is also urging to a hard stance, but the SPD chancellor Scholz seems content with handwringing and dodging a clear stance because the current gas shortage (that some speculate to be also the result of Russia trolling us to fasten the permits for Northstream) may cause public annoyance if it gets even worse and people spend the winter without heating. Though the article does point out that the British simply didn't ask, so maybe that's a bad example for this handwringing. That Germany is reluctant to deliver weapons however might have something to do with Green vice chancellor Habeck having been roasted during the pre-election phase for suggesting delivering weapons to Ukraine. Thank you for the more nuanced view. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DMC Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 27 minutes ago, Toth said: Though the article does point out that the British simply didn't ask, so maybe that's a bad example for this handwringing. Yeah it sounds like the Germans wanted to avoid unnecessarily pissing off the Russians and the UK was perfectly fine flying over Denmark. No big deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Chatywin et al. Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 1 hour ago, Ser Scot A Ellison said: So… as long as the LNG shows up they don’t care if Russia invades a neighbor? We know good and well that business interests often trump doing the right thing. See the Olympics that are about to start in a few weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ser Scot A Ellison Posted January 19, 2022 Author Share Posted January 19, 2022 11 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said: We know good and well that business interests often trump doing the right thing. See the Olympics that are about to start in a few weeks. Yeah… I know. It never ceases to disappoint. :/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Chatywin et al. Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 1 hour ago, Ser Scot A Ellison said: Yeah… I know. It never ceases to disappoint. :/ The moral virtues and superiority of capitalism at play. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DMC Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 2 hours ago, Tywin et al. said: We know good and well that business interests often trump doing the right thing. To be fair, to the extent the pipeline influences German actions is not just due to "business interests" - it's very much political interests. Which of course entail business interests, but still. Not to mention the fact Germany maintaining the pipeline as leverage is in all our interests - it's why the Biden administration opposed Cruz's attempt to impose sanctions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Chatywin et al. Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 40 minutes ago, DMC said: To be fair, to the extent the pipeline influences German actions is not just due to "business interests" - it's very much political interests. Which of course entail business interests, but still. Not to mention the fact Germany maintaining the pipeline as leverage is in all our interests - it's why the Biden administration opposed Cruz's attempt to impose sanctions. Yeah, it's more nuanced than that, just saying it's the obvious first place to look when trying to understand their initial response. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ghjhero Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 https://foreignpolicy.com/2022/01/19/ukraine-russia-nato-crisis-liberal-illusions/?utm_source=PostUp&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Editors Picks OC&utm_term=38834&tpcc=Editors Picks OC A great article on how we got here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
horangi Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 1 hour ago, Ghjhero said: https://foreignpolicy.com/2022/01/19/ukraine-russia-nato-crisis-liberal-illusions/?utm_source=PostUp&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Editors Picks OC&utm_term=38834&tpcc=Editors Picks OC A great article on how we got here. While I appreciate what Realism brings to the table in IR modeling, this article is really laying it on thick with its blaming Liberalism for the course of events leading up to today. A set of NATO countries acting on a more Realist paradigm could have have led to a lot worse than we got. As much as there have been setbacks in Georgia and Ukraine, the real measure of success is in the last few decades is that a hot war hasnt erupted between the alliance and Russia. I'd say that the Baltic and Eastern European states that did join are breathing a lot easier now than had they not joined. What the article really neglects (as Realism doesnt tend to focus on) is the motivations for these more recent escalations are about internal politics in Russia far more than a worry that NATO was intent on invading a state with a massive nuclear arsenal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DMC Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 9 minutes ago, horangi said: While I appreciate what Realism brings to the table in IR modeling, this article is really laying it on thick with its blaming Liberalism for the course of events leading up to today. A set of NATO countries acting on a more Realist paradigm could have have led to a lot worse than we got. The article is a polemic against liberalism from a neorealist cynically using the Ukraine crisis to try to score cheap points. Walt laughably mischaracterizes liberalism's basic precepts, as well as conflates liberalism with democratic peace theory. Not to mention his main thrust is that liberalism failed by pushing to expand NATO eastward, ignoring that the notion the alternative would actually succeed in pacifying/deterring Putin from his aggressive actions is even more dubious and a worse strategy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
broken one Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 18 hours ago, Ser Scot A Ellison said: The UK has sent a plane load of “Next generation” anti-tank missiles to the Ukrainians. https://mil.in.ua/en/news/uk-has-assigned-to-ukraine-nlaw-anti-tank-system-video-of-the-mod/ I really respect GB for the help. The kits are great, even civilinas may use them with succes after brief training. Big pain in the arse for tanks, especially in urban warfare. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kiko Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 16 hours ago, Ser Scot A Ellison said: So… as long as the LNG shows up they don’t care if Russia invades a neighbor? We are probably not as pure hearted as the British arms manufacturers (https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/jan/20/uk-government-yemen-war-saudi-arabia-westminster). On a more serious note, it is not easy to get approval of supporting arms deliveries to crisis areas in Germany. I personally don't know what they will achieve at this point except for making one anyway. Does anyone believe this situation can be solved by even more weapons? On the question of do we care as long as the gas is flowing? Germany is one of the few European countries with meaningful (but not endless) storage capacity. The same can not be said for a lot of our friends in the EU. And one last personal thought on the pipeline: I rather have good economic and political relationships with Russia and embed them in international networks than casting them out. It's not healthy and wouldn't work anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ser Scot A Ellison Posted January 20, 2022 Author Share Posted January 20, 2022 5 minutes ago, kiko said: Does anyone believe this situation can be solved by even more weapons? If Russia invades Ukrainians should use harsh language and placards to oppose them? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
broken one Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 15 minutes ago, kiko said: Does anyone believe this situation can be solved by even more weapons? I believe it is better solution than policy of appaesement a'la Chabmberlain. And without giving carte blanche to attack, which, in fact the whole nordstream was (and it was told 10 000 times) the situation might have not occured at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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