kiko Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 17 minutes ago, Ser Scot A Ellison said: If Russia invades Ukrainians should use harsh language and placards to oppose them? To be honest, I don't understand how my thought that a few more weapons wouldn't solve anything leads to me proposing to only use harsh language and placards. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kiko Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 3 minutes ago, broken one said: I believe it is better solution than policy of appaesement a'la Chabmberlain. The opposite to appeasement wouldn't have been giving Prague some tanks and hand grenades. 3 minutes ago, broken one said: And without giving carte blanche to attack, which, in fact the whole nordstream was (and it was told 10 000 times) the situation might have not occured at all. So the result of Russia attacking Ukraine would be in both cases the closing of the pipelines. I fail to see the difference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ser Scot A Ellison Posted January 20, 2022 Author Share Posted January 20, 2022 15 minutes ago, kiko said: To be honest, I don't understand how my thought that a few more weapons wouldn't solve anything leads to me proposing to only use harsh language and placards. The more damage that can be inflicted on invading Russians the harder it is for Russia to continue a hypothetical invasion. Yes, next generation anti-tank missiles make a difference in Ukrainian abilities to inflict that damage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maithanet Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 9 hours ago, DMC said: The article is a polemic against liberalism from a neorealist cynically using the Ukraine crisis to try to score cheap points. Walt laughably mischaracterizes liberalism's basic precepts, as well as conflates liberalism with democratic peace theory. Not to mention his main thrust is that liberalism failed by pushing to expand NATO eastward, ignoring that the notion the alternative would actually succeed in pacifying/deterring Putin from his aggressive actions is even more dubious and a worse strategy. The article reeks of lazy writing. This crisis is not coming about because Latvia joined NATO 18 years ago. It's not like there's some NATO buildup going on to invade Russia, instead it's a Russian buildup threatening another Western invasion. If they wanted to rail against the hamfisted way Ukraine/NATO discussions went, that's fine, but even that is almost 15 years ago. A lot has changed (particularly in Russian domestic politics) in the interim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
broken one Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 36 minutes ago, kiko said: The opposite to appeasement wouldn't have been giving Prague some tanks and hand grenades. Tanks and grenades was not something Prague lacked. In Ukraine's situation it is quite adequate assistance, plus it is much better than nothing. This is why countries have armies anyway, the more harm one may inflict the more times an enemy will think the attack over. If not - why to have an army at all, just lay down and wait. And what do you think might bring an effect? 36 minutes ago, kiko said: So the result of Russia attacking Ukraine would be in both cases the closing of the pipelines. I fail to see the difference. the pipe running through Ukrainian territory would be closed by Ukraine 100%. Not very sure if it applies to the pipe under the sea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kiko Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 14 minutes ago, broken one said: the pipe running through Ukrainian territory would be closed by Ukraine 100%. Not very sure if it applies to the pipe under the sea. It's closed right now and the permission process is on hold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kiko Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 20 minutes ago, broken one said: Tanks and grenades was not something Prague lacked. In Ukraine's situation it is quite adequate assistance, plus it is much better than nothing Sorry for the double post, but I just remember that one of the triggers for Putin's aggressive behavior was the very successful deployment of the Turkish drones. Can't dig out the article maybe someone had heard of that? Anyway I doubt anything the west could *sell* now would change the odds considerably. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Werthead Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 Reports now that Russia has moved large contingents of troops into Belarus for "joint exercises." Unclear if moving armed forces to that position is to dissuade European countries from getting involved or to join in any invasion of Ukraine. Obviously from Belarus they are not in a position to support any attempt to annex the east of the country and it's more likely they would be trying to launch a strike on Kiev. Massive ratcheting up of the news today as it became the #1 news story in the UK on the evening bulletins for the first time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ser Scot A Ellison Posted January 20, 2022 Author Share Posted January 20, 2022 @Werthead, I updated the thread title based upon a report on NPR this afternoon. With Russian Troops in Kazakstan, Belarus, and the border of Ukraine is Putin thinking about “getting the band back together” so to speak? Putin has bemoaned the breakup of the Soviet Union for years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Werthead Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 The USA making it clear that all of the hardcore, last-resort sanctions they have had in reserve will be deployed against Russia if they send any troops across the border. The Russian government is surprisingly really rattled by that, probably because they know that their economy can't take that kind of hit. Although they must have known that would happen. Military analysts pointing out that the position Ukraine is in today is very different to 2014. It has double the number of active troops in service to back then, and it has up to a million reservists ready to fight, a third of the total armed forces of Russia itself. Obviously they are massively less well-equipped in terms of artillery, aircraft and tanks, but they've made it clear they will bloody any invading forces heavily, and the Russians may find invading the Ukrainian heartland where almost everyone hates them a very different proposition to sending troops across the border into broadly pro-Russian regions. I can't believe that Putin is considering doing this. The internal political situation in the Kremlin must be much direr than anyone thought. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ser Scot A Ellison Posted January 20, 2022 Author Share Posted January 20, 2022 When does the Rasputitsa (season of mud) start in Ukraine? If Putin waits too long he’ll have to wait out the mud before he can move. If we have a break like a 6 week window in which Russian forces cannot move wouldn’t that create a window for NATO to actually reinforce Ukraine? Alternatively, could Putin wait until right before the Rasputitsa starts to attack making sending reinforcements to Ukraine virtually impossible? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maithanet Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 The Rasputitsa isn't what it was in WW2. There are a lot of very good roads in Ukraine, as well as helicopters and aircraft to move troops around quickly. It would make an additional challenge, but hardly an impossible obstacle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ser Scot A Ellison Posted January 20, 2022 Author Share Posted January 20, 2022 14 minutes ago, Maithanet said: The Rasputitsa isn't what it was in WW2. There are a lot of very good roads in Ukraine, as well as helicopters and aircraft to move troops around quickly. It would make an additional challenge, but hardly an impossible obstacle. Keeping armored columns on blacktop is making them a target… isn’t it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maithanet Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 5 minutes ago, Ser Scot A Ellison said: Keeping armored columns on blacktop is making them a target… isn’t it? Russia will have air supremacy in short order, so I think they'll be able to use roads to get around, although there is the risk of mines and barricades. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ser Scot A Ellison Posted January 20, 2022 Author Share Posted January 20, 2022 1 minute ago, Maithanet said: Russia will have air supremacy in short order, so I think they'll be able to use roads to get around, although there is the risk of mines and barricades. What if NATO provided air support but let the Ukrainians fight the ground war? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maithanet Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 Just now, Ser Scot A Ellison said: What if NATO provided air support but let the Ukrainians fight the ground war? God I hope not. That sounds like a great way to start a war with Russia AND lose a war in Ukraine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ser Scot A Ellison Posted January 20, 2022 Author Share Posted January 20, 2022 2 minutes ago, Maithanet said: God I hope not. That sounds like a great way to start a war with Russia AND lose a war in Ukraine. Yeah… :/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Chatywin et al. Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 49 minutes ago, Werthead said: The USA making it clear that all of the hardcore, last-resort sanctions they have had in reserve will be deployed against Russia if they send any troops across the border. The Russian government is surprisingly really rattled by that, probably because they know that their economy can't take that kind of hit. What's the downside of preemptively putting the sanctions in place? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maithanet Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 Speaking more broadly, I am having a lot of trouble understanding what Russia's endgame is here. The buildup in Belarus makes no sense if they are just planning on biting off another chunk of Eastern/Southern Ukraine. That looks like a full on invasion of the whole country. But what sort of good result could Putin hope for from such an action? The US/EU will enact punishing sanctions. The military will win the war, but with significant casualties. Then what? Occupy a country that has 30X the population and size of Chechnya? Sign a peace treaty and only take the eastern third (where a guerilla war and ongoing terrorist attacks are virtually guaranteed)? I understand that Putin wants to look like the tough guy standing up to the West to deflect from domestic problems, but this seems like a Homer Simpson kinda solution, and Putin is no fool. I can't make it add up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ser Scot A Ellison Posted January 20, 2022 Author Share Posted January 20, 2022 8 minutes ago, Maithanet said: Speaking more broadly, I am having a lot of trouble understanding what Russia's endgame is here. The buildup in Belarus makes no sense if they are just planning on biting off another chunk of Eastern/Southern Ukraine. That looks like a full on invasion of the whole country. But what sort of good result could Putin hope for from such an action? The US/EU will enact punishing sanctions. The military will win the war, but with significant casualties. Then what? Occupy a country that has 30X the population and size of Chechnya? Sign a peace treaty and only take the eastern third (where a guerilla war and ongoing terrorist attacks are virtually guaranteed)? I understand that Putin wants to look like the tough guy standing up to the West to deflect from domestic problems, but this seems like a Homer Simpson kinda solution, and Putin is no fool. I can't make it add up. A huge bluff to show he… could… do this for real? I’m spitballing here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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