The Return and Role of Rickon Stark.

[three-eyed monkey]

It seems everyone is waiting for Rickon to come charging in on a badass goat with a rampaging horde of Skagosi at his back. That may be so, but I think there is a lot more to the youngest Stark’s role in Winds of Winter than that. I don’t believe his is a shaggy dog story because it will have a narrative purpose.

We don’t know much about Rickon. We meet him as a wilful 3-year-old, wild, reflective somewhat of Arya in personality. It’s clear he’s very stubborn. He refuses to have his hair cut, lashing out in response. He likes to run with the wolves and seems to have what Ned refers to as the wolfsblood, like Brandon and Arya. His skinchanging and potentially greenseeing abilities seem to be strong too, given that he had the same premonition as Bran regarding Ned’s death.

Rickon’s grief over his father is mixed with bouts of anger. Whenever Robb the Lord leaves Winterfell overnight to visit surrounding holdfasts, Rickon cries for him to return. When Robb calls his banners and marches south, Rickon is distraught. It’s not a stretch to suggest the young boy has abandonment issues, which manifested even before he was forced from his home.

We have not seen Rickon since he departed with Osha, although we’ve learned from Lord Wyman that they are on Skagos. Jon’s wolf dream later confirmed that seems to be Shaggydog’s location and we can feel safe to assume that the boy is not far from his wolf. Rickon will be 5 or 6-years-old when we next see him. We can only speculate as to what degree he may have changed over the last year or so, but his central characteristics will remain the same, for example, he’s still stubborn. I think we can also expect the loss of his family, especially Ned and Robb, to quite naturally have had a profound effect on him.

If he does have skinchanging abilities then me might expect him to be at least having wolf dreams like Jon, Bran, and Arya. Beyond that it’s hard to say, given that there are a number of factors that could push it either way. We don’t know if Rickon will have someone to guide his development in that respect? Varamyr had such a guide in Haddon, who told him that when you take a wolf it’s a marriage, you become the wolf and the wolf becomes you, both of you will change. The potential of his abilities is not really important to this thread, my point is that the influence of Osha, Skagos, and Shaggydog is unlikely to have tamed Rickon any. If anything, he may have grown more wolfish in some respects.

Meanwhile, Stannis sent Davos to try and win over Lord Too-Fat and White Harbor. Davos did a good job pitching for Stannis but was rebuffed. Instead of losing his hands and head he was told Wex’s story and directed to Skagos. Wyman’s deal is straight-forward; bring back his liege lord, Rickon, and he will swear allegiance to King Stannis. Sounds like it’s not going to be easy but from Davos’s point of view it’s not a bad outcome. At least there is a clear pathway for him to achieve his mission for Stannis. It certainly could have been worse. Unfortunately, what Davos does not seem to realize is that he is being played by Lord Wyman.

Wyman had been patiently bidding his time, trying to appear loyal and co-operative towards the Freys and Boltons and their Lannister overlords, but plotting and preparing all along to bring the mummer’s farce to an end as soon as his hostage son was returned by Tywin. He and his co-conspirators want revenge no doubt, but also the re-establishment of northern independence. To do that they need to eliminate the Boltons and Freys as well as Stannis. The best strategy to achieve their goal is to let Roose and Stannis fight it out until one is destroyed and the other weakened, and then come in and take out the winner.

Once that’s done they need to re-instate a King-in-the-North. Clearly they are going to defer to Robb’s will for this. There are many good reasons to do so. Not only does it honor the Young Wolf but it also draws a clear line from Robb to his successor and makes the movement a continuation of the original declaration made by Robb.

With Bran and Rickon reported dead, Robb’s will came down to a choice between Jon and Sansa. Jon was a bastard, loved by Robb but distrusted by Cat. He was also a sworn brother of the Watch but Robb was confident a way could be found around that. On the other hand, Sansa’s situation was complicated by her marriage to Tyrion. At this stage it seems pretty clear he went for Jon, but we can be certain it was not Rickon, who was believed dead at the time.

So when the Hand of King Stannis came begging for support just as Wyman’s plan was ready to be put into action, the easiest thing to do would have been to kill him, mount his head and hands on the wall and keep up the mummer’s farce. Wyman must have taken some pity on Davos, who he probably saw as a good man in service to a bad cause. He faked the execution and made use of the Onion Knight’s skill-set by sending him to retrieve Rickon on Skagos, somewhere Davos would be out of sight while everything went down, as it would be dangerous for Wyman if he was seen alive. But Wyman lied when he said he would take Stannis as his king. How could he? It would be totally self-defeating. And when he explained to Davos that he needed Eddard’s son to thwart Roose, who had Arya to bolster his own claim, he left out that he was not talking about Rickon. Of course Wyman wanted Rickon back safe but his plan revolved around Jon.

Next time we see Davos he’ll be on Skagos. I think we can be sure he’ll find Rickon, but we don’t have enough to even hint at how it might play out beyond that. Is Rickon a guest or a prisoner? Will he want to go or stay? Will Davos have to smuggle him out or will the Skagosi send him on his way with a war party at his back? It could go a number of ways, but I’m going to venture that one way or another, Davos gets the boy and wolf back to the mainland, and moving toward Winterfell. Whatever happens, the important thing and one of the main reasons for this strand of the story, in my opinion, is the interaction between the characters of Rickon and Davos because it seems to me that they might fit like hand and wolfskin glove in some respects.

It's funny that Stannis’s loyal hand should find himself in this position. He fathered seven sons, the youngest of which, Steffon, is of an age with Rickon, and he misses them greatly. And here is Rickon, a young boy who lost his father, his mother, his siblings and home. Feeling abandoned. People who feel like that can often attach quickly in their relationships, and boys who lose their father at a young age often seek out father figures, consciously or not.

This journey together will start to change them both as they bond, which will have consequences for each character down the line. For Davos, I believe this is the beginning of a transition from Stannis to the Starks and ultimately into the service of Jon for the final book, but that’s beside the point.  

Meanwhile, Frey pies got served in Winterfell, Snowmen with a capitol S sprung up on the battlements, Stannis marched through a storm all the time urged onward by the northern clans, Crowfood’s boys beat drums, tensions grew high inside the castle, Theon flew, Roose sent out a considerable portion of his strength to face Stannis. So far, so good.

Wyman no doubt hopes, all things going well, that Stannis will soon be off the board, the Freys will be greatly depleted, Robett Glover will bring up the northern reserves and then Fat Walda will sing for Roose. After that it’s just a case of summoning Jon to Winterfell for the coronation. Right? There’s only two problems; Jon just got killed and, surprise, surprise, Stannis is still on the board. In typical GRRM fashion, it is the mercy Wyman showed Davos that will come back to bite him. With Jon dead, Rickon’s political stock will soar, and Wyman placed him in the hand of another king’s Hand.

If the plan had worked Wyman would expect Davos to return with Rickon only to find that Stannis was dead, defeated by Roose and the Freys before the north could avenged the fallen king, leaving Wyman unable to complete his part of the bargain, regretfully of course. King Jon and the North would be grateful for Rickon’s return, and Davos would be free to mourn his dead king and return to his family. But if Wyman does manage to survive what could well be a mortal wound, then he will live to see an entirely different scenario play out. First a Raven will arrive from Maester Tybald, Roose’s spy in Stannis’s camp, with news of victory. Stannis is dead…

I have my own ideas about what happens next and how the following is achieved but let’s not go down that rabbit hole just yet. However, I suggest that what must happen next, (for the sake of the character’s arc at the very least), is that Stannis must not only win the Battle of Ice, which everyone by now knows is heavily foreshadowed, but also take Winterfell, which is also foreshadowed. And that the plot point we must get to here is the elimination of Roose and a stand-off between Stannis and the Northern Lords. Stannis must hold the castle, probably with surviving northern lords as hostages, while Glover and the main northern strength lay siege.

Stannis wanted Jon to bind the North to his cause as his Lord of Winterfell and Warden of the North. The Northern Lords wanted Jon to be King-in-the-North. Therefore, when news arrives that Jon is dead, both plans will be disrupted. Actually, a third plan will be disrupted, Mance is there too, inside the castle, and he would much prefer to deal with King Jon than King Stannis.

With Jon dead, Rickon will be next in line for Winterfell. That will put him in prime position to be Robb’s successor now too given the will is defunct. The northmen will be guided to look to him next by the laws of succession, and appoint a regent until he comes of age, and if the northmen accept that Rickon is their rightful liege lord and king then that’s whose fealty Stannis now needs. This scenario sets up a re-enactment of the siege of Storm’s End in Winterfell, with Rickon playing a sack of onions. Davos will have to smuggle Rickon into the castle if Stannis is to survive. History does have a habit of repeating itself in Westeros.

So how could Stannis possibly get the wilful Rickon to bend the knee? To begin with the bond with Davos will help, but there is more to it than that. You have to ask what Stannis is offering? I think Davos said it best in the Merman’s Court.

What does Stannis offer you? Vengeance. Vengeance for my sons and yours, for your husbands and your fathers and your brothers. Vengeance for your murdered lord, your murdered king, your butchered princes. Vengeance!"  

I think Rickon is too young to be interested in the politics of Westeros or bothered by such things as tradition or legacy. But he understands grief, and he understands anger, and if he’s anything like Arya he understands Vengeance. I think he’ll declare for Stannis. The northern lords may strongly object but Rickon is stubborn and he’ll stick to his… swords. Rickon will kneel but unlike Torrhen Stark it will be for war not peace.

The northern lords would have to either follow or defy their stubborn liege lord or else cast him, and House Stark, aside for another, but who amongst the assembled could claim the northern crown without dispute or civil war? No one. A taste of Lannister blood should help sweeten the bitter pill they’ll be forced to swallow. I doubt that part will be unpopular with the northmen. The North remembers. They may have no love for Stannis but my enemy’s enemy is still my friend, for now at least. Like Jon, ideas of Northern independence will not be dead but rather on ice.

So is this baseless speculation? It’s highly speculative for sure but it’s not baseless. It is based on three main points; foreshadowing, bridge-building, and the arc of Stannis Baratheon.

To begin with, a number of things have been foreshadowed. Stannis winning the Battle of Ice. Stannis taking Winterfell using Tybald’s ravens and the Karstarks. I feel confident that Stannis will get that far. I would further argue that Davos smuggling Rickon into Winterfell is foreshadowed in the siege of Storm’s End, which lends me to believe Stannis will be under siege. And who could sustain such a siege? Only the northern reserve under Robett Glover. Remember, Wyman said his military strength remained intact after the War of Five Kings, yet he only brought 200 knights with him to Winterfell.

My second point is with Jon dead we know that Rickon will become important to the politics, and we know he’ll probably be in the company of Davos. Just the combination of those two characters alone suggests to me that GRRM is building a bridge between the North and Stannis using Rickon and Davos. He built a similar bridge between the North and Free Folk using Jon and Ygritte. Two people from different factions pushed together by circumstance and forced to see the other’s point of view to some degree. We’ve seen it throughout the series. Jaime and Brienne. Arya and the Hound. The repeated use of that device not only serves to create a more interesting dynamic in the narrative, it is also builds the theme, united we stand - divided we fall, which will be proven to be true by the climax of the story.

And finally the most compelling factor to consider, in my opinion, is Stannis’s arc. If Stannis dies outside or inside Winterfell then his arc will have come to an utterly unsatisfactory end from a technical point of view, it doesn’t matter whether you like him or not. Arcs are constructed, and built into their fabric are questions that the character needs to answer before the arc can be completed. One of the main questions Stannis needs to answer is - win the throne or save the kingdom? That means that Stannis will eventually be faced with a choice, does he win the throne and march against King’s Landing as he so deeply desires or will he save the kingdom and march against the Others? If Stannis is ever to get to this question then he needs to attain military strength, like winning the North, or else the question falls flat as he’s not in the position to do either one.

There are other ways we could get there, but it would have to be relatively direct because I think Stannis’s arc will have to get closed out by the end of Winds. Stannis will not retreat from Winterfell. When he said he was going to take Winterfell or die trying, he meant it. The march is well past the point of no return. The North already see him as a beaten dog, if he retreats with the remains of his starving army, not only will he have very little of it left, he will have almost certainly lost his chance to win the North anytime soon. He simply has to take the castle, and quickly. The odds may be stacked against him but Stannis has been there before and that’s when he often exceeds expectations, so dismiss him out at your peril. As Tywin once remarked, Stannis will fight to the bitter end and then some. The crofter’s village marked the bitter end, now it’s time for and then some.

If we consider how all this might fit the timeline, it’s hard to define the period in terms of days or months, but in a general sense Davos would have to get to Skagos and then back to Winterfell in the time it took Wyman to march to Winterfell, plus how long he’s been in Winterfell so far, plus how long it takes Stannis to take the castle, plus however long Stannis can hold out eating boot leather, which sounds like just enough time to me.

So in summary-

Davos and Rickon are being pushed together for a reason, with backstories that make them well suited to eventually bond. GRRM is building a bridge between Stannis and North.

Wyman wants Rickon back but his political schemes revolve around Jon so he sent Davos to Skaagos to keep him out of sight until the business is complete.

The Northern lords plan to let Stannis and Roose destroy each other before they bring in the reserves under Glover to mop up what’s left. After that Jon will be summoned and offered Robb’s crown. That’s the plan in a nutshell.

Against great odds, Stannis will win the Battle of Ice and then take Winterfell with surprising speed. Roose will be dead, and Stannis will remain with some northern lords as hostages, while Glover will arrive outside the walls expecting the northern lords to open the gates to let him in. A siege reminiscent of Storm's end will ensue.

Davos will smuggle Rickon into Winterfell like he's an onion and present him to Stannis. Rickon wants vengeance above all else and will bend the knee to get it. Not for peace like Torrhen, but for war.

Stannis will win the North, thanks to his reliable Onion Knight, and gain enough strength to continue his arc and bring it to a satisfactory conclusion later in the novel, when his defeat and death near the end of Winds will open the door for the ascendancy of another.

Thanks for reading.

[Prince of the North]

I like it!  I don't know if you have all the details exactly right but I do think the story, in general, will go this way.  I do believe there is a Great Northern Conspiracy   

[Rhan]

Seconding Prince to say I like this a lot. It had never occurred to me that Wyman might be playing Davos by showing him mercy, but I think there's definitely a solid chance of it. I tend to feel a little more skeptical than others about a broad / organized northern conspiracy to displace the Freys and Boltons, but I do think that we'll see several small acts of insurgence / rebellion -- like Wyman's -- which, if they can come together and organize, will be very good for the interests of the North. GRRM writes a lot about the difficulties of rule, especially when the ruler and their goals are detached from the goals / interests of the population they're attempting to control -- we see it with Dany, obviously, as well as with Jon (who is really struggling to decide which population he is meant to protect and represent -- the Night's Watch, the Wildlings, or the whole of humanity) and I think we are seeing it with the Boltons too, who, despite having perfectly maneuvered themselves into an alliance with the Iron Throne and official leadership over the North, are floundering when it comes to actually "winning hearts and minds" as it were. Stannis isn't doing much better -- although he's allied with the northern clans, I don't think he understands them or shares real community. They are aligned against the usurpers of the seat of Stark, but not really in support of Stannis's claim to the Iron Throne (which is, we should remember, the legal one) and much less his religious / messianic claims. We've seen this before -- with the "conversions" demanded of the Wildlings who pass through the Wall, and their immediate return to the religion of their culture once they've made it through. Maybe we'll see a similar movement with the Manderly's and the other more settled Northern lords, with Stannis -- or even, hell, Dany, although that's obviously a while off still -- against the Boltons, but not really with Stannis / Dany to the end. 

I don't think it will be possible for anyone to really rule the north without these kinds of cultural / communal ties. In the end, we've heard more about the culture and identity of Northerners than any other kingdom -- except maybe Dorne? -- from the very first book and Robert's visit to Winterfell to the north remembering and beyond.

[LynnS]

Quote

 

A Game of Thrones - Bran IV

Bran watched from his window seat. Wherever the boy went, Grey Wind was there first, loping ahead to cut him off, until Rickon saw him, screamed in delight, and went pelting off in another direction. Shaggydog ran at his heels, spinning and snapping if the other wolves came too close. His fur had darkened until he was all black, and his eyes were green fire. Bran's Summer came last. He was silver and smoke, with eyes of yellow gold that saw all there was to see. Smaller than Grey Wind, and more wary. Bran thought he was the smartest of the litter. He could hear his brother's breathless laughter as Rickon dashed across the hard-packed earth on little baby legs.

 

All the direwolves respond to Rickon.  Whatever else happens;  I wonder if Rickon will be able to control Nymeria's pack and if GRRM has this in mind when it comes to his version of a warg army.  That would be a surprise.  

[Lord Lannister]

I always half figured Rickon was being kept on the backburner to be the Stark left once all the dust settles. While I doubt he's going to come charging in with unicorn cavalry or anything, I think he will be on top once everything plays out between the Boltons, Stannis and northern lords, though probably a puppet of some sort.

[Terrorthatflapsinthenight9]

3 hours ago, LynnS said:

All the direwolves respond to Rickon.  Whatever else happens;  I wonder if Rickon will be able to control Nymeria's pack and if GRRM has this in mind when it comes to his version of a warg army.  That would be a surprise.  

Speaking of Nymeria I am curious to see what Rickon's relation with Arya after their respective ordeals and adventures would be. 

Maybe they'd have a special bond over their shared wild side, and maybe Arya would have to help calm Rickon in an ironic reversal of situation, maybe she'd have an idea of why their mother and Sansa were so often annoyed with her.

[LynnS]

2 hours ago, Terrorthatflapsinthenight9 said:

Speaking of Nymeria I am curious to see what Rickon's relation with Arya after their respective ordeals and adventures would be. 

Maybe they'd have a special bond over their shared wild side, and maybe Arya would have to help calm Rickon in an ironic reversal of situation, maybe she'd have an idea of why their mother and Sansa were so often annoyed with her.

I think Rickon will be something of a wild child, a wolf boy.  He was pretty young when he went to Skagos.  He might be more Skagosi at this point. 

[Roswell]

The north was hardly civilized before the war.  The raging war of the five kings and the arrival of winter will push the north back into a primitive hunter-gathering tribes.  The north will go wild.  He will be one of the chieftains of his people. Rickon will survive in his physical form longer than Jon, Arya, and Sansa.  He too will die and his soul will live in his dog for as long as the animal lives.  The Starks will be a pack again.  

[Nathan Stark]

48 minutes ago, Roswell said:

The north was hardly civilized before the war.  The raging war of the five kings and the arrival of winter will push the north back into a primitive hunter-gathering tribes.  The north will go wild.  He will be one of the chieftains of his people. Rickon will survive in his physical form longer than Jon, Arya, and Sansa.  He too will die and his soul will live in his dog for as long as the animal lives.  The Starks will be a pack again.  

This is ASOIAF, not the omegaverse.

[Terrorthatflapsinthenight9]

7 hours ago, LynnS said:

I think Rickon will be something of a wild child, a wolf boy.  He was pretty young when he went to Skagos.  He might be more Skagosi at this point. 

Though it depends of how wild and civilized the skagosi actually are, it's far from unlikely that they're more advanced and nicer than they look like much like the free folk and crannogmen and may actually help tame some of Rickon's wildness.

I have also the idea that Rickon might have met and taken under his wing by an experienced skagosi skinchanger here.

[LynnS]

Given his young age, I wonder how much he has assimilated into that culture; how important he is to them now and whether he would want to return to Winterfell.

The outlier is Bran and whether or not he will have a use for Rickon and if he will contact Rickon in the same way he contacted Jon at the Skirling Pass.

[three-eyed monkey]

7 hours ago, Terrorthatflapsinthenight9 said:

Speaking of Nymeria I am curious to see what Rickon's relation with Arya after their respective ordeals and adventures would be. 

Yes, Rickon and Arya seem to be similar types of characters. Even though we've never had his pov or even seen much of him, I do think we are meant to parallel him with Arya.

We know Arya is on a quest for vengeance. This is one of the big questions posed by her arc, can she change paths before it consumes her? In ASoIaF there are a lot of people seeking vengeance. It is one of the driving forces for the Game of Thrones side of the story, and naturally a theme surrounding vengeance emerges. Doran Martell claims he wants to bring Justice, Vengeance, Fire and Blood. But Ned points out that there is a difference between Justice and Vengeance.

"Do we have your leave to take our vengeance against Ser Gregor, then?" Marq Piper asked the throne.

"Vengeance?" Ned said. "I thought we were speaking of justice. Burning Clegane's fields and slaughtering his people will not restore the king's peace, only your injured pride."

Ellaria Sand explains the problem with vengeance.

"Oberyn wanted vengeance for Elia. Now the three of you want vengeance for him. I have four daughters, I remind you. Your sisters. My Elia is fourteen, almost a woman. Obella is twelve, on the brink of maidenhood. They worship you, as Dorea and Loreza worship them. If you should die, must El and Obella seek vengeance for you, then Dorea and Loree for them? Is that how it goes, round and round forever? I ask again, where does it end?"

Vengeance is a viscous cycle. Jaime and Hoster Blackwood, who was born into a long-standing family feud, discuss it too.

"How, my lord? The old wounds never heal, my father says."

"My father had a saying too. Never wound a foe when you can kill him. Dead men don't claim vengeance."

"Their sons do," said Hoster, apologetically.

Hoster is a bright young man and understands the problem. Jaime was once driven by vengeance, but his character developed and by the time he was presented with Vargo Hoat's head, revenge had lost its savor.

Themes are like rules in a story, the characters who learn to adhere to the theme of the story will have a positive arc and those who fail to learn the lessons will have a negative arc. As such we can see the danger for Arya.

When Torrhen Stark bent the knee to Aegon and his dragons for peace, it cost him his reputation as well as his kingdom, but the North did not burn. If Rickon bends the knee to Stannis for vengeance, as I propose, then he'll be on a path to a negative arc. Symmetry alone suggests that he will burn by dragonfire, along with Stannis, when they face Dany's dragons. (Sorry if you're a Rickon fan.)

Part of the purpose for Rickon's story, given that despite his Stark name he is still just a secondary character, is that his motive/actions and their result will help further establish the need for Arya to change if she is to resolve her arc in a positive way.

[Terrorthatflapsinthenight9]

1 hour ago, three-eyed monkey said:

Yes, Rickon and Arya seem to be similar types of characters. Even though we've never had his pov or even seen much of him, I do think we are meant to parallel him with Arya.

We know Arya is on a quest for vengeance. This is one of the big questions posed by her arc, can she change paths before it consumes her? In ASoIaF there are a lot of people seeking vengeance. It is one of the driving forces for the Game of Thrones side of the story, and naturally a theme surrounding vengeance emerges. Doran Martell claims he wants to bring Justice, Vengeance, Fire and Blood. But Ned points out that there is a difference between Justice and Vengeance.

"Do we have your leave to take our vengeance against Ser Gregor, then?" Marq Piper asked the throne.

"Vengeance?" Ned said. "I thought we were speaking of justice. Burning Clegane's fields and slaughtering his people will not restore the king's peace, only your injured pride."

Ellaria Sand explains the problem with vengeance.

"Oberyn wanted vengeance for Elia. Now the three of you want vengeance for him. I have four daughters, I remind you. Your sisters. My Elia is fourteen, almost a woman. Obella is twelve, on the brink of maidenhood. They worship you, as Dorea and Loreza worship them. If you should die, must El and Obella seek vengeance for you, then Dorea and Loree for them? Is that how it goes, round and round forever? I ask again, where does it end?"

Vengeance is a viscous cycle. Jaime and Hoster Blackwood, who was born into a long-standing family feud, discuss it too.

"How, my lord? The old wounds never heal, my father says."

"My father had a saying too. Never wound a foe when you can kill him. Dead men don't claim vengeance."

"Their sons do," said Hoster, apologetically.

Hoster is a bright young man and understands the problem. Jaime was once driven by vengeance, but his character developed and by the time he was presented with Vargo Hoat's head, revenge had lost its savor.

Themes are like rules in a story, the characters who learn to adhere to the theme of the story will have a positive arc and those who fail to learn the lessons will have a negative arc. As such we can see the danger for Arya.

When Torrhen Stark bent the knee to Aegon and his dragons for peace, it cost him his reputation as well as his kingdom, but the North did not burn. If Rickon bends the knee to Stannis for vengeance, as I propose, then he'll be on a path to a negative arc. Symmetry alone suggests that he will burn by dragonfire, along with Stannis, when they face Dany's dragons. (Sorry if you're a Rickon fan.)

Part of the purpose for Rickon's story, given that despite his Stark name he is still just a secondary character, is that his motive/actions and their result will help further establish the need for Arya to change if she is to resolve her arc in a positive way.

I don't see Rickon leaving the North and facing Dany and her dragons anytime soon. He's still too young to go to war and I doubt that his older siblings, or Stannis nor their bannermen would be willing to let him go in a war south knowing his young age and that he'd be the last Stark heir if a ressurected Jon, Sansa and Bran don't make it, not counting that he and the rest of the northerners have the Others and their armies of wights to worry about in priority.

[three-eyed monkey]

45 minutes ago, Terrorthatflapsinthenight9 said:

I don't see Rickon leaving the North and facing Dany and her dragons anytime soon. He's still too young to go to war and I doubt that his older siblings, or Stannis nor their bannermen would be willing to let him go in a war south knowing his young age and that he'd be the last Stark heir if a ressurected Jon, Sansa and Bran don't make it, not counting that he and the rest of the northerners have the Others and their armies of wights to worry about in priority.

Unfortunately, there are no older siblings to protest. The northern lords may protest but Rickon is their liege lord and if he stubbornly insists on going then it will be hard to deter him. And as Rickon will have knelt to Stannis, it will ultimately come down to the king.

I'm not suggesting Rickon will be in the frontline, but I do think Stannis would prefer to keep Rickon close, like a hostage, to keep the North in line. If Stannis left Rickon in Winterfell and marched, there is a chance that some northerner would win Rickon's ear, and the North might abandon him again once he's south of Moat Cailin.

By the time Stannis wins the North and prepares to march on KL, it will be late in the sixth book. Both the Others and Dany should be converging on Westeros around this time. And that's where Stannis will have to answer the first of two of his arc's major questions, does he win the throne or does he save the kingdom? Does he march south against KL or north to the Wall?

 

[Terrorthatflapsinthenight9]

18 minutes ago, three-eyed monkey said:

Unfortunately, there are no older siblings to protest. The northern lords may protest but Rickon is their liege lord and if he stubbornly insists on going then it will be hard to deter him. And as Rickon will have knelt to Stannis, it will ultimately come down to the king.

I'm not suggesting Rickon will be in the frontline, but I do think Stannis would prefer to keep Rickon close, like a hostage, to keep the North in line. If Stannis left Rickon in Winterfell and marched, there is a chance that some northerner would win Rickon's ear, and the North might abandon him again once he's south of Moat Cailin.

By the time Stannis wins the North and prepares to march on KL, it will be late in the sixth book. Both the Others and Dany should be converging on Westeros around this time. And that's where Stannis will have to answer the first of two of his arc's major questions, does he win the throne or does he save the kingdom? Does he march south against KL or north to the Wall?

 

I think that yes there will be older siblings to prevent Rickon from going south, with a ressurected Jon and Sansa who might come back to the North in TWOW after her secret identity is revealed to the Vale lords. 

Besides Stannis doesn't strike me as someone who'd take Rickon with him, and I rather think that he would prefer Rickon to stay in Winterfell like how he had Selyse and Shireen stay at the Wall to satisfy the northern lords and keep the North with a head, not counting the risks of seeing his northern support crumbles should he do that or if Rickon is killed or captured and taken as a hostage. 

And the North will need a head should the Others arrive and breach the wall sooner than expected. 

[Terrorthatflapsinthenight9]

2 hours ago, LynnS said:

Given his young age, I wonder how much he has assimilated into that culture; how important he is to them now and whether he would want to return to Winterfell.

The outlier is Bran and whether or not he will have a use for Rickon and if he will contact Rickon in the same way he contacted Jon at the Skirling Pass.

He might, if my memory is correct there were hints of Skagos having heart trees so Bran could keep an eye on Rickon via them if the presence of the weirwood trees is real.

There have been several theories about it already. 

[Phylum of Alexandria]

19 minutes ago, Terrorthatflapsinthenight9 said:

I think that yes there will be older siblings to prevent Rickon from going south, with a ressurected Jon and Sansa who might come back to the North in TWOW after her secret identity is revealed to the Vale lords. 

Besides Stannis doesn't strike me as someone who'd take Rickon with him, and I rather think that he would prefer Rickon to stay in Winterfell like how he had Selyse and Shireen stay at the Wall to satisfy the northern lords and keep the North with a head, not counting the risks of seeing his northern support crumbles should he do that or if Rickon is killed or captured and taken as a hostage. 

And the North will need a head should the Others arrive and breach the wall sooner than expected.

Yeah, my feeling is that frozen hell will break loose before anyone goes South, and Winterfell will show itself as the main refuge against the winter.

Mel, Selyse, and Shireen may come from the North to seek shelter there as well. Which would likely kick start the final leg of Stannis' arc: do I emulate the prophesied hero of ages (the guy who sacrifices innocent life for his magic sword), or simply try to protect the people under my charge?

[BlackLightning]

On 12/3/2021 at 7:39 AM, three-eyed monkey said:

 

 

It seems everyone is waiting for Rickon to come charging in on a badass goat with a rampaging horde of Skagosi at his back. That may be so, but I think there is a lot more to the youngest Stark’s role in Winds of Winter than that. I don’t believe his is a shaggy dog story because it will have a narrative purpose.

 

We don’t know much about Rickon. We meet him as a wilful 3-year-old, wild, reflective somewhat of Arya in personality. It’s clear he’s very stubborn. He refuses to have his hair cut, lashing out in response. He likes to run with the wolves and seems to have what Ned refers to as the wolfsblood, like Brandon and Arya. His skinchanging and potentially greenseeing abilities seem to be strong too, given that he had the same premonition as Bran regarding Ned’s death.

 

Rickon’s grief over his father is mixed with bouts of anger. Whenever Robb the Lord leaves Winterfell overnight to visit surrounding holdfasts, Rickon cries for him to return. When Robb calls his banners and marches south, Rickon is distraught. It’s not a stretch to suggest the young boy has abandonment issues, which manifested even before he was forced from his home.

 

We have not seen Rickon since he departed with Osha, although we’ve learned from Lord Wyman that they are on Skagos. Jon’s wolf dream later confirmed that seems to be Shaggydog’s location and we can feel safe to assume that the boy is not far from his wolf. Rickon will be 5 or 6-years-old when we next see him. We can only speculate as to what degree he may have changed over the last year or so, but his central characteristics will remain the same, for example, he’s still stubborn. I think we can also expect the loss of his family, especially Ned and Robb, to quite naturally have had a profound effect on him.

 

If he does have skinchanging abilities then me might expect him to be at least having wolf dreams like Jon, Bran, and Arya. Beyond that it’s hard to say, given that there are a number of factors that could push it either way. We don’t know if Rickon will have someone to guide his development in that respect? Varamyr had such a guide in Haddon, who told him that when you take a wolf it’s a marriage, you become the wolf and the wolf becomes you, both of you will change. The potential of his abilities is not really important to this thread, my point is that the influence of Osha, Skagos, and Shaggydog is unlikely to have tamed Rickon any. If anything, he may have grown more wolfish in some respects.

 

Meanwhile, Stannis sent Davos to try and win over Lord Too-Fat and White Harbor. Davos did a good job pitching for Stannis but was rebuffed. Instead of losing his hands and head he was told Wex’s story and directed to Skagos. Wyman’s deal is straight-forward; bring back his liege lord, Rickon, and he will swear allegiance to King Stannis. Sounds like it’s not going to be easy but from Davos’s point of view it’s not a bad outcome. At least there is a clear pathway for him to achieve his mission for Stannis. It certainly could have been worse. Unfortunately, what Davos does not seem to realize is that he is being played by Lord Wyman.

 

Wyman had been patiently bidding his time, trying to appear loyal and co-operative towards the Freys and Boltons and their Lannister overlords, but plotting and preparing all along to bring the mummer’s farce to an end as soon as his hostage son was returned by Tywin. He and his co-conspirators want revenge no doubt, but also the re-establishment of northern independence. To do that they need to eliminate the Boltons and Freys as well as Stannis. The best strategy to achieve their goal is to let Roose and Stannis fight it out until one is destroyed and the other weakened, and then come in and take out the winner.

 

Once that’s done they need to re-instate a King-in-the-North. Clearly they are going to defer to Robb’s will for this. There are many good reasons to do so. Not only does it honor the Young Wolf but it also draws a clear line from Robb to his successor and makes the movement a continuation of the original declaration made by Robb.

 

With Bran and Rickon reported dead, Robb’s will came down to a choice between Jon and Sansa. Jon was a bastard, loved by Robb but distrusted by Cat. He was also a sworn brother of the Watch but Robb was confident a way could be found around that. On the other hand, Sansa’s situation was complicated by her marriage to Tyrion. At this stage it seems pretty clear he went for Jon, but we can be certain it was not Rickon, who was believed dead at the time.

 

So when the Hand of King Stannis came begging for support just as Wyman’s plan was ready to be put into action, the easiest thing to do would have been to kill him, mount his head and hands on the wall and keep up the mummer’s farce. Wyman must have taken some pity on Davos, who he probably saw as a good man in service to a bad cause. He faked the execution and made use of the Onion Knight’s skill-set by sending him to retrieve Rickon on Skagos, somewhere Davos would be out of sight while everything went down, as it would be dangerous for Wyman if he was seen alive. But Wyman lied when he said he would take Stannis as his king. How could he? It would be totally self-defeating. And when he explained to Davos that he needed Eddard’s son to thwart Roose, who had Arya to bolster his own claim, he left out that he was not talking about Rickon. Of course Wyman wanted Rickon back safe but his plan revolved around Jon.

 

Next time we see Davos he’ll be on Skagos. I think we can be sure he’ll find Rickon, but we don’t have enough to even hint at how it might play out beyond that. Is Rickon a guest or a prisoner? Will he want to go or stay? Will Davos have to smuggle him out or will the Skagosi send him on his way with a war party at his back? It could go a number of ways, but I’m going to venture that one way or another, Davos gets the boy and wolf back to the mainland, and moving toward Winterfell. Whatever happens, the important thing and one of the main reasons for this strand of the story, in my opinion, is the interaction between the characters of Rickon and Davos because it seems to me that they might fit like hand and wolfskin glove in some respects.

 

It's funny that Stannis’s loyal hand should find himself in this position. He fathered seven sons, the youngest of which, Steffon, is of an age with Rickon, and he misses them greatly. And here is Rickon, a young boy who lost his father, his mother, his siblings and home. Feeling abandoned. People who feel like that can often attach quickly in their relationships, and boys who lose their father at a young age often seek out father figures, consciously or not.

 

This journey together will start to change them both as they bond, which will have consequences for each character down the line. For Davos, I believe this is the beginning of a transition from Stannis to the Starks and ultimately into the service of Jon for the final book, but that’s beside the point.  

 

Meanwhile, Frey pies got served in Winterfell, Snowmen with a capitol S sprung up on the battlements, Stannis marched through a storm all the time urged onward by the northern clans, Crowfood’s boys beat drums, tensions grew high inside the castle, Theon flew, Roose sent out a considerable portion of his strength to face Stannis. So far, so good.

 

Wyman no doubt hopes, all things going well, that Stannis will soon be off the board, the Freys will be greatly depleted, Robett Glover will bring up the northern reserves and then Fat Walda will sing for Roose. After that it’s just a case of summoning Jon to Winterfell for the coronation. Right? There’s only two problems; Jon just got killed and, surprise, surprise, Stannis is still on the board. In typical GRRM fashion, it is the mercy Wyman showed Davos that will come back to bite him. With Jon dead, Rickon’s political stock will soar, and Wyman placed him in the hand of another king’s Hand.

 

If the plan had worked Wyman would expect Davos to return with Rickon only to find that Stannis was dead, defeated by Roose and the Freys before the north could avenged the fallen king, leaving Wyman unable to complete his part of the bargain, regretfully of course. King Jon and the North would be grateful for Rickon’s return, and Davos would be free to mourn his dead king and return to his family. But if Wyman does manage to survive what could well be a mortal wound, then he will live to see an entirely different scenario play out. First a Raven will arrive from Maester Tybald, Roose’s spy in Stannis’s camp, with news of victory. Stannis is dead…

 

I have my own ideas about what happens next and how the following is achieved but let’s not go down that rabbit hole just yet. However, I suggest that what must happen next, (for the sake of the character’s arc at the very least), is that Stannis must not only win the Battle of Ice, which everyone by now knows is heavily foreshadowed, but also take Winterfell, which is also foreshadowed. And that the plot point we must get to here is the elimination of Roose and a stand-off between Stannis and the Northern Lords. Stannis must hold the castle, probably with surviving northern lords as hostages, while Glover and the main northern strength lay siege.

 

Stannis wanted Jon to bind the North to his cause as his Lord of Winterfell and Warden of the North. The Northern Lords wanted Jon to be King-in-the-North. Therefore, when news arrives that Jon is dead, both plans will be disrupted. Actually, a third plan will be disrupted, Mance is there too, inside the castle, and he would much prefer to deal with King Jon than King Stannis.

 

With Jon dead, Rickon will be next in line for Winterfell. That will put him in prime position to be Robb’s successor now too given the will is defunct. The northmen will be guided to look to him next by the laws of succession, and appoint a regent until he comes of age, and if the northmen accept that Rickon is their rightful liege lord and king then that’s whose fealty Stannis now needs. This scenario sets up a re-enactment of the siege of Storm’s End in Winterfell, with Rickon playing a sack of onions. Davos will have to smuggle Rickon into the castle if Stannis is to survive. History does have a habit of repeating itself in Westeros.

 

So how could Stannis possibly get the wilful Rickon to bend the knee? To begin with the bond with Davos will help, but there is more to it than that. You have to ask what Stannis is offering? I think Davos said it best in the Merman’s Court.

 

What does Stannis offer you? Vengeance. Vengeance for my sons and yours, for your husbands and your fathers and your brothers. Vengeance for your murdered lord, your murdered king, your butchered princes. Vengeance!"  

I think Rickon is too young to be interested in the politics of Westeros or bothered by such things as tradition or legacy. But he understands grief, and he understands anger, and if he’s anything like Arya he understands Vengeance. I think he’ll declare for Stannis. The northern lords may strongly object but Rickon is stubborn and he’ll stick to his… swords. Rickon will kneel but unlike Torrhen Stark it will be for war not peace.

 

The northern lords would have to either follow or defy their stubborn liege lord or else cast him, and House Stark, aside for another, but who amongst the assembled could claim the northern crown without dispute or civil war? No one. A taste of Lannister blood should help sweeten the bitter pill they’ll be forced to swallow. I doubt that part will be unpopular with the northmen. The North remembers. They may have no love for Stannis but my enemy’s enemy is still my friend, for now at least. Like Jon, ideas of Northern independence will not be dead but rather on ice.

 

So is this baseless speculation? It’s highly speculative for sure but it’s not baseless. It is based on three main points; foreshadowing, bridge-building, and the arc of Stannis Baratheon.

 

To begin with, a number of things have been foreshadowed. Stannis winning the Battle of Ice. Stannis taking Winterfell using Tybald’s ravens and the Karstarks. I feel confident that Stannis will get that far. I would further argue that Davos smuggling Rickon into Winterfell is foreshadowed in the siege of Storm’s End, which lends me to believe Stannis will be under siege. And who could sustain such a siege? Only the northern reserve under Robett Glover. Remember, Wyman said his military strength remained intact after the War of Five Kings, yet he only brought 200 knights with him to Winterfell.

 

My second point is with Jon dead we know that Rickon will become important to the politics, and we know he’ll probably be in the company of Davos. Just the combination of those two characters alone suggests to me that GRRM is building a bridge between the North and Stannis using Rickon and Davos. He built a similar bridge between the North and Free Folk using Jon and Ygritte. Two people from different factions pushed together by circumstance and forced to see the other’s point of view to some degree. We’ve seen it throughout the series. Jaime and Brienne. Arya and the Hound. The repeated use of that device not only serves to create a more interesting dynamic in the narrative, it is also builds the theme, united we stand - divided we fall, which will be proven to be true by the climax of the story.

 

And finally the most compelling factor to consider, in my opinion, is Stannis’s arc. If Stannis dies outside or inside Winterfell then his arc will have come to an utterly unsatisfactory end from a technical point of view, it doesn’t matter whether you like him or not. Arcs are constructed, and built into their fabric are questions that the character needs to answer before the arc can be completed. One of the main questions Stannis needs to answer is - win the throne or save the kingdom? That means that Stannis will eventually be faced with a choice, does he win the throne and march against King’s Landing as he so deeply desires or will he save the kingdom and march against the Others? If Stannis is ever to get to this question then he needs to attain military strength, like winning the North, or else the question falls flat as he’s not in the position to do either one.

 

There are other ways we could get there, but it would have to be relatively direct because I think Stannis’s arc will have to get closed out by the end of Winds. Stannis will not retreat from Winterfell. When he said he was going to take Winterfell or die trying, he meant it. The march is well past the point of no return. The North already see him as a beaten dog, if he retreats with the remains of his starving army, not only will he have very little of it left, he will have almost certainly lost his chance to win the North anytime soon. He simply has to take the castle, and quickly. The odds may be stacked against him but Stannis has been there before and that’s when he often exceeds expectations, so dismiss him out at your peril. As Tywin once remarked, Stannis will fight to the bitter end and then some. The crofter’s village marked the bitter end, now it’s time for and then some.

 

If we consider how all this might fit the timeline, it’s hard to define the period in terms of days or months, but in a general sense Davos would have to get to Skagos and then back to Winterfell in the time it took Wyman to march to Winterfell, plus how long he’s been in Winterfell so far, plus how long it takes Stannis to take the castle, plus however long Stannis can hold out eating boot leather, which sounds like just enough time to me.

 

So in summary-

 

Davos and Rickon are being pushed together for a reason, with backstories that make them well suited to eventually bond. GRRM is building a bridge between Stannis and North.

 

Wyman wants Rickon back but his political schemes revolve around Jon so he sent Davos to Skaagos to keep him out of sight until the business is complete.

 

The Northern lords plan to let Stannis and Roose destroy each other before they bring in the reserves under Glover to mop up what’s left. After that Jon will be summoned and offered Robb’s crown. That’s the plan in a nutshell.

 

Against great odds, Stannis will win the Battle of Ice and then take Winterfell with surprising speed. Roose will be dead, and Stannis will remain with some northern lords as hostages, while Glover will arrive outside the walls expecting the northern lords to open the gates to let him in. A siege reminiscent of Storm's end will ensue.

 

Davos will smuggle Rickon into Winterfell like he's an onion and present him to Stannis. Rickon wants vengeance above all else and will bend the knee to get it. Not for peace like Torrhen, but for war.

 

Stannis will win the North, thanks to his reliable Onion Knight, and gain enough strength to continue his arc and bring it to a satisfactory conclusion later in the novel, when his defeat and death near the end of Winds will open the door for the ascendancy of another.

 

Thanks for reading.

Good stuff but you're forgetting something important...

Sansa.

Not only is her resurgence going to naturally disrupt any plan Stannis makes (as well as all those of the Boltons) but she will be the one who will wield the most control over Rickon. Let's not forget how much she resembles her mother. Rickon - who has not seen his mother in years - will see her and instantly latch himself onto her. She might be the only one who can control wild, violent, possessive Rickon

7 hours ago, Phylum of Alexandria said:

Yeah, my feeling is that frozen hell will break loose before anyone goes South, and Winterfell will show itself as the main refuge against the winter.

Mel, Selyse, and Shireen may come from the North to seek shelter there as well. Which would likely kick start the final leg of Stannis' arc: do I emulate the prophesied hero of ages (the guy who sacrifices innocent life for his magic sword), or simply try to protect the people under my charge?

I'm of the thought that Stannis will be thoroughly rejected after the Battle of Winterfell concludes and will fall back on the Nightfort. Which is where Shireen's burning (and probably the fall of the Wall) takes place

But yes: I see the Wall falling before Stannis begins marching south for King's Landing

[Northern Sword]

Love the thread @three-eyed monkey.

I agree with a lot of your thought process on this. Davos as a POV in Skagos would be awesome. I do personally think the Great Northern Conspiracy is a thing. Yet, never considered a parallel to Storms End. It is at the very least, plausible. Definitely think Stannis wins the Battle of Ice, getting into Winterfell seems like a harder trick to pull. Still, sign me up.

I'm still pulling for a Jon resurrection, but I like a lot of the elements you bring together. Cant wait to see Wyman's vengeance on the Frey's and Bolton's.

Bravo.

 

 

[three-eyed monkey]

4 hours ago, BlackLightning said:

Good stuff but you're forgetting something important...

Sansa.

Not only is her resurgence going to naturally disrupt any plan Stannis makes (as well as all those of the Boltons) but she will be the one who will wield the most control over Rickon. Let's not forget how much she resembles her mother. Rickon - who has not seen his mother in years - will see her and instantly latch himself onto her. She might be the only one who can control wild, violent, possessive Rickon

That's a good point, and you might well be right, but I didn't forget about Sansa, it's just that I don't see the books going the way of the show. The show shoehorned Sansa into Jeyne Poole's role, the books don't need to do that. The story-telling is on a different level. I think book Sansa will be returning to KL, that's where the meat of her story is, and in the Mad Mouse I see a vehicle to get her there. We first met Ser Shadrich of the Shady Glen in Feast, where he confessed to Brienne that he was searching for Sansa too.

"You know who Varys is, I trust? The eunuch has offered a plump bag of gold for this girl you've never heard of. I am not a greedy man. If some oversized wench would help me find this naughty child, I would split the Spider's coin with her."

Later, the Mad Mouse turns up in the Vale.

Just as Petyr had promised, the young knights flocked around her, vying for her favor. After Ben came Andrew Tollett, handsome Ser Byron, red-nosed Ser Morgarth, and Ser Shadrich the Mad Mouse.

Coincidence?

4 hours ago, Northern Sword said:

I agree with a lot of your thought process on this. Davos as a POV in Skagos would be awesome. I do personally think the Great Northern Conspiracy is a thing. Yet, never considered a parallel to Storms End. It is at the very least, plausible. Definitely think Stannis wins the Battle of Ice, getting into Winterfell seems like a harder trick to pull. Still, sign me up.

I'm still pulling for a Jon resurrection, but I like a lot of the elements you bring together. Cant wait to see Wyman's vengeance on the Frey's and Bolton's.

Thank you. Yes, Davos on Skagos is going to be another The Forsaken level chapter or two I hope. The Grand Northern Conspiracy is a thing, the only real question is how far-reaching the conspiracy is. The Snowmen in Winterfell are in for sure, including Lady Dustin, but that might only be the tip of the iceberg so to speak.

Getting into Winterfell will be a harder trick to pull but Stannis must do it or die. His army is starving and frozen. He can't assault the walls, he can't sustain a siege, he needs a trick or two but he has everything he needs. He has ravens trained to fly to Winterfell, courtesy of Roose's spy, Maester Tybald. He has flipped the Karstarks, who Roose thinks belong to him, and he has Reek. What seems like an obvious plan is send a raven from Arnolf Karstark saying the battle is won, Stannis is dead, Hosteen Frey was killed, and Reek recaptured. Then when the column returns in the snow led by the Karstarks with Reek in chains, the hope is the gates will be opened. The battle will be fought inside the walls of the castle.

"You will not take Winterfell!"

"Aye, we will," came a cackle from the high table, where Arnolf Karstark sat with his son Arthor and three grandsons. Lord Arnolf shoved himself up, a vulture rising from its prey. One spotted hand clutched at his son's shoulder for support. "We'll take it for the Ned and for his daughter. Aye, and for the Young Wolf too, him who was so cruelly slaughtered. Me and mine will show the way, if need be. I've said as much to His Good Grace the king."

Of course, Arnolf was planning on stabbing Stannis in the back, but Jon exposed their treachery. However, the funny thing is when he told Stannis his would lead the way, he gave the king an idea.

"Ser Richard, whilst I am breaking fast with Lord Arnolf, you are to disarm his men and take them into custody. Most will be asleep. Do them no harm, unless they resist. It may be they did not know. Question some upon that point... but sweetly. If they had no knowledge of this treachery, they shall have the chance to prove their loyalty."

They will have a chance to prove their loyatly by leading the way into Winterfell.

Jon will return to pick up the pieces but only after Stannis has concluded his arc, near the end of Winds. Until then he's Ghost.