Sansa, the Mountain Clans, the “Ivy Special Ops Team,” and an Avalanche

[deja vu]

It has been years since I read a post on Westeros.org by @sweetsunray detailing her Giant’s Lance Avalanche theory. The evidence laid out in the essay is convincing in an “of course!” sort of way, but a key factor is missing: What – or rather, who – initiates the avalanche? Mountain people (and ski patrols) know about snow. They know when conditions are right for an avalanche and they know how to get one started. My first whirlwind read of the books left me thinking that the Mountain Clans had a role to play in Sansa’s story line, but it takes more than a breezy read to find supporting evidence. A more leisurely re-read finds me having just finished the last Alayne (Sansa) chapter in AFFC, I thought I’d re-visit Westeros.org to see what recent thinking has been about the Vale. Thanks to @Phylum of Alexandria (I lived there for 25 years and am okay with thinking about its residents as a distinct phylum) for including a link to Shadrich, Morgarth and Byron – Mythological weave of Ice & Fire (sweeticeandfiresunray.com) where SweetSunRay’s excellent work is compiled. The extended Shadrich, Morgath, and Bryon (nicknamed the “Ivy Special Ops Team”) essay is outstanding – love it all. But again, the role of the Mountain Clans is given short shrift. I’m posting here to point out GRRM’s clues that Sansa will meet the Mountain Clans again and what that might portend.

To start at the beginning, As Tyrion and Bronn are leaving the Vale after the Trial by Combat, they are waylaid by the Clans in AGoT Tyrion VI. Tyrion makes the clans his allies through promises.  

Quote

 

But Gunthor raised a hand. "No. I would hear his words. The mothers go hungry, and steel fills more mouths than gold. What would you give us for your lives, Tyrion son of Tywin? Swords? Lances? Mail?"

"All that, and more, Gunthor son of Gurn," Tyrion Lannister replied, smiling. "I will give you the Vale of Arryn."

 

 Tyrion has clearly thought about how to achieve the most extravagant and vengeful promise, but “was never given the chance” to flesh out his plan. He introduces his father to the new allies in Tyrion VII (AGoT)  

Quote

Tyrion was about to tell his lord father how he proposed to reduce the Vale of Arryn to a smoking wasteland, but he was never given the chance. The door banged open again. The messenger gave Tyrion's clansmen a quick, queer look as he dropped to one knee before Lord Tywin. "My lord," he said, "Ser Addam bid me tell you that the Stark host is moving down the causeway."

 Whatever Tyrion’s plans may have been then, bringing the clans into his orbit laid the groundwork for Sansa’s arc to intersect with the clans. The “Ivy Special Ops Team” theory speculates that Ser Byron is actually Sandor Clegane glamoured with the important role of being able to conclusively identify Sansa. Why not? But Sandor’s familiarity with Sansa is not unique in the Vale.

 In ACoK Sansa tells us numerous times that she works hard to look her best in public because Joffrey demands it. She is successful and it is noticed.  In Tyrion VI (ACoK), Acting Hand Tyrion sits on the Iron Throne from which he can look over the crowd:

Quote

 Courtiers filled the gallery while supplicants clustered near the towering oak-and-bronze doors. Sansa Stark looked especially lovely this morning, though her face was as pale as milk. 

 On his return from Kings Landing, Ser Cleos Frey tells Catelyn:

Quote

 His brow was damp with sweat. "I saw Sansa at the court, the day Tyrion told me his terms. She looked most beautiful, my lady. Perhaps a, a bit wan. Drawn, as it were." (Catelyn Vi ACoK)

 Although both Tyrion and Ser Cleos are talking about the same event, it’s likely that Sansa’s daily demeanor is studied by everyone at court because of her beauty, her care in making sure that she looks her best, and the gossip/news value of her relationship with Joffrey.

 In addition to her regular appearances at court, GRRM makes sure that the reader is aware that Sansa is specifically known to the clansmen. In Sansa III (ACoK), Joffrey has Sansa stripped and beaten in open court. The scene is well known because Tyrion puts a stop to it and the Hound covers her with his cloak. Both Bronn and Timett son of Timett are with Tyrion in the throne room. What happens next has not been as thoroughly discussed by the community. Sansa is brought to Tyrion’s (the Hand’s) apartments where she watched over by clansmen.  

Quote

 

"Fear is better than love, Mother says." Joffrey pointed at Sansa. "She fears me."

The Imp sighed. "Yes, I see. A pity Stannis and Renly aren't twelve-year-old girls as well. Bronn, Timett, bring her."

Sansa moved as if in a dream. She thought the Imp's men would take her back to her bedchamber in Maegor's Holdfast, but instead they conducted her to the Tower of the Hand. She had not set foot inside that place since the day her father fell from grace, and it made her feel faint to climb those steps again. (Sansa III ACoK)

 

 

In the Tower of the Hand Sansa is cleaned up, tended to by Maester Frenken, and falls asleep. When she wakes, she finds Chella of the Broken Ears clan guarding her door:

Quote

 

It was dark when she woke again, not quite knowing where she was, the room both strange and strangely familiar. As she rose, a stab of pain went through her legs and brought it all back. Tears filled her eyes. Someone had laid out a robe for her beside the bed. Sansa slipped it on and opened the door. Outside stood a hard-faced woman with leathery brown skin, three necklaces looped about her scrawny neck. One was gold and one was silver and one was made of human ears. "Where does she think she's going?" the woman asked, leaning on a tall spear.

"The godswood." She had to find Ser Dontos, beg him to take her home now before it was too late.

"The halfman said you're not to leave," the woman said. "Pray here, the gods will hear." (Sansa III ACoK)

 

 Later, Tyrion offers clansmen as guards:

Quote

 

"You may sleep here tonight. I'll give you some of my own men as a guard, some Stone Crows perhaps—"

"No," Sansa blurted out, aghast. If she was locked in the Tower of the Hand, guarded by the dwarf's men, how would Ser Dontos ever spirit her away to freedom?

"Would you prefer Black Ears? I'll give you Chella if a woman would make you more at ease." (Sansa III ACoK)

 

 Sansa refuses, returning to her own quarters, but the clues have been delivered: Sansa is recognizable to everyone who frequented King Joffrey’s court and, in particular, to clansmen of the Mountains of the Moon who also understand that “the halfman” thinks she’s important.

The clans have returned home. There are no POVs to tell the reader for a certainty that the clans know that Tyrion and Sansa married or that both are now on the run, but both are topics of conversation among travelers and at every inn. In ASoS, Arya hears that the clans have become more dangerous since returning to the mountains: 

Quote

His [The Hound’s] dream of selling Arya to Lady Arryn died there in the hills, though. "There's frost above us and snow in the high passes," the village elder said. "If you don't freeze or starve, the shadowcats will get you, or the cave bears. There's the clans as well. The Burned Men are fearless since Timett One-Eye came back from the war. And half a year ago, Gunthor son of Gurn led the Stone Crows down on a village not eight miles from here. They took every woman and every scrap of grain, and killed half the men. They have steel now, good swords and mail hauberks, and they watch the high road—the Stone Crows, the Milk Snakes, the Sons of the Mist, all of them. Might be you'd take a few with you, but in the end they'd kill you and make off with your daughter." {Arya XII ASoS).

 One of Sansa’s skills is understanding familial relationships and implications for inheritance:  

Quote

 

"Which brings us back to the five remaining daughters of Elys and Alys. The eldest had been left terribly scarred by the same pox that killed her sisters, so she became a septa. Another was seduced by a sellsword. Ser Elys cast her out, and she joined the silent sisters after her bastard died in infancy. The third wed the Lord of the Paps, but proved barren. The fourth was on her way to the riverlands to marry some Bracken when Burned Men carried her off. That left the youngest, who wed a landed knight sworn to the Waynwoods, gave him a son that she named Harrold, and perished." He turned her hand over and lightly kissed her wrist. "So tell me, sweetling—why is Harry the Heir?"

Her eyes widened. "He is not Lady Waynwood's heir. He's Robert's heir. If Robert were to die . . ." (Alayne II ASoS)

 

The likelihood that Timett son of Timett is the son of Elys’ and Alys’ fourth daughter has been theorized before. What is needed to make it clear that Timett’s claim supercedes Harry the Heir’s is bringing Timett and Sansa (and/or Littlefinger) together.

 Finally, after all these words, here’s my theory:

·       On the day of the Tourney, with the Vale’s knights, gentry, commons, assembled at the base of the Giant’s Lance, the Mountain Clans precipitate an avalanche that descends on the Gates of the Moon. Many people die – including Harry -  and many are trapped beneath the snow such as those on the Lord’s viewing stand – Sweetrobin, Sansa, Littlefinger, the Royce’s and other Lords Declarant.

·       It seems likely that the “Ivy Special Ops Team” survives as well – maybe their pavilion is located well away from the base of mountain.

·       If Sansa’s warging/skinchanging ability is ever to develop this is the time. It is widely accepted that sensory deprivation, particularly sight, is key - Bran’s time in Winterfell’s crypts, Arya’s blindness at the House of Black and White. Sansa could reach out to John Arryn’s favorite falcon to help pinpoint where rescuers should dig.

·       Whether helped by telekinesis or not, those on the Lord’s viewing stand are rescued after some period of time.

·       The clans are wildlings – they steal women.

·       Sansa is recognized and conversations ensue.

 Tyrion tells us that Sansa “is good at this” – “this” being soothing and flattering people, making them feel special – and she’s been tutored in statecraft by Littlefinger as well as by observation. She can suggest marriages  - Timett and Miranda seems like a pretty good match for example. The aftermath of all this is that Sansa helps bring about an alliance of the Vale powers that be and the wildlings, much as John Snow tried to do at the Wall. Marriages are made, the forces of the Vale are integrated, Team Ivy is strengthened by the inclusion of the Special Ops Team, maybe the Blackfish shows up and helps pull the forces together. The Vale becomes perhaps one of, if not the, most powerful military force in Westeros. Littlefinger remains an important player, but Sansa’s star is rising. She doesn’t fully understand about Littlefinger until she meets up with Jeyne Poole. He has until then.

 But that’s a story for another day.

 What do you think?

[Harry the Hair]

One thing is for sure, winter is coming and the mothers are hungry. LF hoarding massive reserves of grain and hosting extravagant tourneys will nip him in the butt. I’d say he’s getting ready to break ties with Cersei sooner rather than later so if the only thing keeping the clans from full out warfare is LF’s status as a loyal Lannister subject then no time like the present to hatch an attack plan. 

I do believe some of the clans are plotting something now that they have steel for weapons but whether they can cause an avalanche large enough to do some major damage is debatable. Chella’s "Pray here, the gods will hear." seems to imply that she doesn’t worship the same old gods as the Northmen so I think we can rule out COF type magic here. It would make more sense for them to take advantage of the festivities and infiltrate the gates of the moon during the tourney without resorting to the supernatural. If there will be a cataclysmic event my money is on Howland Reed as the cause (assuming he is Shadrich).

Sansa’s story line could parallel Jon’s if eventually she tries to help hash out a peace treaty between Andals and the mountain Clans. It seems like the clans’ main concern right now is food and the snow might be forcing them to descend and raid nearby villages more frequently than usual. Maybe they can be won over with some lands and grain. Interestingly enough she is aware of the missing daughter of Elys and Alys; attempting to pass off Timett as Sweetrobin’s heir to displace Harry could be an option? Idk. I’m not sure how united the clans are either; swaying one clan to her cause might not guarantee securing another. 

 

The possibilities are endless and I can’t wait to get my hands on TWOW. come on GRRM, give us something already