The state of House Lannister when Daenerys arrives in Westeros?

[norwaywolf123]

It appears like House Lannister (and it's unofficial/rumored bastard branch, House Baratheon of King's Landing) is due to decline during the Winds of Winter. Young Griff or Aegon Targaryen the sixth as he claims to be (he is probably a Targaryen of the Blackfyre lineage), along with the Golden Company have already taken large swaths of the Stormlands. Dorne is due to join the conflict on the side of this Aegon. With the death of Kevan Lannister it seems that the last hope for the Lannister-Tyrell alliance has died, and the alliance will soon collapse due to Cersei's machinations. The Faith has remilitarized and is not favorable towards Cersei. It has been suggested that they will eventually be among those who herald Aegon. Aegon is already prophesized to take King's Landing and be heralded by the people, Daenerys knows him as the mummer's dragon. The golden company speaks of their friends in the Reach, who could join them. The Riverlands seems likely to revolt should House Lannisters position deteriorate. The Vale is also unfriendly to the Lannisters, some believing that Tyrion had Jon Arryn killed, in addition to their pro-Riverlands and North sympathies.

The cards seem to be stacked against House Lannister. What I wonder is how much will their position deteriorate over the Winds of Winter? How far will they fall? When Daenerys arrived in Westeros what will be the state of House Lannister?

Not only the state of the main branch (Jaime, Cersei, Tyrion), but also House Lannister in general, in terms of lands and titles.

[Willam Stark]

Tommen is the next Waters/Lannister who will die I think, killed by the Sand Snakes. Cersei will crown Myrcella after his death and flee KL, but her daughter will die as well and then the Valonqar will kill Cersei, in accordance with the prophecy. Jaime will die during the future Long Night, maybe Tyrion will join him in the grave but I'm not sure. In any case, Tywin's bloodline will be wiped out or nearly.

[norwaywolf123]

7 minutes ago, Willam Stark said:

Tommen is the next Waters/Lannister who will die I think, killed by the Sand Snakes. Cersei will crown Myrcella after his death and flee KL, but her daughter will die as well and then the Valonqar will kill Cersei, in accordance with the prophecy. Jaime will die during the future Long Night, maybe Tyrion will join him in the grave but I'm not sure. In any case, Tywin's bloodline will be wiped out or nearly.

I think Tyrion will survive all of GRRMs books, however i doubt he will have any legitimate descendants to continue his, and thus Tywin's line. Tyrion's child by Tysha/Sailor's wife will live however.  In the end what survives of Tywin's line may live in Braavos, while Kevan's line rules Casterly Rock.

[Curled Finger]

If history is any measure we can expect House Lannister to lose everything in the end.  Tyrion will have a great deal to answer for if for no other reason than he is a Lannister as Cersei and probably Jamie can cause a lot of difficulty to pretty much everyone so long as their wealth remains.   I don't think it can--Cersei can't even be bothered to pay the Iron Bank the logical next folks she won't pay will be involved with the family business.   The IT already owed owed an astonishing amount of money to the Lannisters when Ned arrived in Kings Landing.  Her sense of infinite universal power does not help her make any wise or responsible decisions.   Ruling only feeds her ego--we should we expect she will not do any better managing family business or rush to pay the House back.    Now Jamie is on the precipice of really turning his cloak, but no one is likely to forget he is the kingslayer or to quit reminding him he is.  Whatever potential good Jamie will attempt will be utterly spoiled by his name and reputation, though I hope he takes a behind the scenes role and pushes Brienne out front as the big hero/commander/fighter.   The difference between our twins is that Jamie is capable of great good where Cersei couldn't care less for good.  I don't see them becoming adversarial but they will not see eye to eye on much.   If GRRM is merciful he will keep Jamie far away from Cersei.   Tyrion can only be made to pay for his name but don't discount his ability to influence people and power.   There is opportunity for Tyrion to ally with power if not masses.  Smart money will back him.  

I reckon a whole lot of the Lannister forces will be attacked and decimated as they march to the Westerlands.  Little by little our author has taken from House Lannister while granting so many of their wishes.  Tywin is dead.  There is nothing preventing the Westerlands from remember the Red Wedding, Robert's death, power grabs and a very bad ruler.   The Lannister heirs are both missing.  There is nothing preventing other houses in the Westerlands who may well be owed money from rebelling.  Cersei's walk of shame comes too closely on the coat tails of her grandfather's mistress and her shaming.   How the mighty do fall in this tale...

[Rondo]

2 hours ago, norwaywolf123 said:

It appears like House Lannister (and it's unofficial/rumored bastard branch, House Baratheon of King's Landing) is due to decline during the Winds of Winter. Young Griff or Aegon Targaryen the sixth as he claims to be (he is probably a Targaryen of the Blackfyre lineage), along with the Golden Company have already taken large swaths of the Stormlands. Dorne is due to join the conflict on the side of this Aegon. With the death of Kevan Lannister it seems that the last hope for the Lannister-Tyrell alliance has died, and the alliance will soon collapse due to Cersei's machinations. The Faith has remilitarized and is not favorable towards Cersei. It has been suggested that they will eventually be among those who herald Aegon. Aegon is already prophesized to take King's Landing and be heralded by the people, Daenerys knows him as the mummer's dragon. The golden company speaks of their friends in the Reach, who could join them. The Riverlands seems likely to revolt should House Lannisters position deteriorate. The Vale is also unfriendly to the Lannisters, some believing that Tyrion had Jon Arryn killed, in addition to their pro-Riverlands and North sympathies.

The cards seem to be stacked against House Lannister. What I wonder is how much will their position deteriorate over the Winds of Winter? How far will they fall? When Daenerys arrived in Westeros what will be the state of House Lannister?

Don't count the Lannisters out.  As much as I despise Jaime he is capable of holding them together.  They are a large clan and somebody will step into Kevan's role.  Don't rule out a female to do it.  Cersei will win her war with the High Sparrow and that will demoralize his followers.  She doesn't need genius level brains to stay on the throne because she won't be alone.  Aegon allied himself to a weak house in the Martells.  I am doubtful if he will survive long enough to meet Daenerys.  There is only one clue which make me think he will survive long enough to meet her.  Daenerys will prove to the people that Aegon is a fake dragon.  He is one of the lies to be slain.  Which is not going to work out well for him.  People generally do not take kindly to impostors.  

The war started because of a conflict between the Lannisters and the Starks.  The deaths and the damage is their fault.  Oh yes, the Baratheons too.  The Lannisters will lose to the Starks.  Sansa, Jon the Wight, Bran the Tree, and their wights will fight the Lannisters.  The main conflicts in the novels are these:

1. Asha Greyjoy vs. Euron Greyjoy. Theon is on this same story line.
2. Roose Bolton vs. Stannis Baratheon. 
3. Daenerys Targaryen vs. the Starks. Fire vs. Ice.
4. Cersei Lannister vs. Sansa Stark (Tyrion will side with his family in this fight)
5. Daenerys Targaryen vs. the Slavers
6. House Stark vs. House Lannister
7. Aegon and the Martells vs. Cersei, Jaime, and all the Lannisters.

[Terrorthatflapsinthenight9]

The Lannisters are obviously going to be in a very bad shape when Daenerys arrived with them having lost King's Landing and all power in the Crownlands, them having lost all of their allies with the Boltons having been wiped out by Stannis or the Starks, the Freys being in a civil war and being slaughtered by the BWB and the vengeful rivermen and northmen, Littlefinger having finally betrayed them with them being no longer useful to him anymore, their already shaky ties with house Tyrell having been annihilated thanks to Cersei and Aegon and their armies and the Westerlands being very weakened and likely to suffer war again either by Aegon's forces or the revengeful northmen and rivermen forces or both at the same time. Tommen will surely be dead, most likely Myrcella too and Cersei has great chances of being dead by this time too.

It will take at best decades for them to recover and make their house comparable to what it used to be before Tywin's tenure as hand under Aerys II and most likely longer for them to redeem their family name and reputation from the damage done by Tywin, Joffrey and Cersei.  

 

[norwaywolf123]

1 hour ago, Curled Finger said:

If history is any measure we can expect House Lannister to lose everything in the end.

Extinction similar to the Reynes of Castamere? Or are you refering only to Tywin's children?

1 hour ago, Curled Finger said:

Lannister ... can cause a lot of difficulty to pretty much everyone so long as their wealth remains.   I don't think it can--Cersei can't even be bothered to pay the Iron Bank the logical next folks she won't pay will be involved with the family business.   The IT already owed owed an astonishing amount of money to the Lannisters when Ned arrived in Kings Landing.  Her sense of infinite universal power does not help her make any wise or responsible decisions.   Ruling only feeds her ego--we should we expect she will not do any better managing family business or rush to pay the House back.

I agree that with you in that the Lannisters will fail to recoup massive amonts of debt owed to them. Eventually this debt will be deleted, with House Lannister forced to swallow to the lose. Perhaps Aegon will delete the debt when he takes the Iron Throne, or Daenerys? Allthough i think it will be Aegon, since i think Daenerys will arrive afterwards. Anyway Daenerys will definitely not seek to restore the debt owed to House Lannister. Any debt will have to be recouped prior to their fall.

1 hour ago, Curled Finger said:

Now Jamie is on the precipice of really turning his cloak, but no one is likely to forget he is the kingslayer or to quit reminding him he is.  Whatever potential good Jamie will attempt will be utterly spoiled by his name and reputation, though I hope he takes a behind the scenes role and pushes Brienne out front as the big hero/commander/fighter.   The difference between our twins is that Jamie is capable of great good where Cersei couldn't care less for good.  I don't see them becoming adversarial but they will not see eye to eye on much.   If GRRM is merciful he will keep Jamie far away from Cersei.   

Jaime will probably play some role in the conflict with Aegon, eventually the Lannisters will lose though. Jaime and Cersei might be taken prisoner by the Aegon faction, while their death will come as Daenerys takes/burns King's Landing.

[norwaywolf123]

13 minutes ago, Terrorthatflapsinthenight9 said:

The Lannisters are obviously going to be in a very bad shape when Daenerys arrived with them having lost King's Landing and all power in the Crownlands, them having lost all of their allies with the Boltons having been wiped out by Stannis or the Starks, the Freys being in a civil war and being slaughtered by the BWB and the vengeful rivermen and northmen, Littlefinger having finally betrayed them with them being no longer useful to him anymore, their already shaky ties with house Tyrell having been annihilated thanks to Cersei and Aegon and their armies and the Westerlands being very weakened and likely to suffer war again either by Aegon's forces or the revengeful northmen and rivermen forces or both at the same time. Tommen will surely be dead, most likely Myrcella too and Cersei has great chances of being dead by this time too.

It will take at best decades for them to recover and make their house comparable to what it used to be before Tywin's tenure as hand under Aerys II and most likely longer for them to redeem their family name and reputation from the damage done by Tywin, Joffrey and Cersei.  

If the House Lannister is in a bad shape, aswell as adverserial relations with Aegon and/or Riverlanders, Northmen and Valemem, will they not be incentivised to seek an alliance with Daenerys?

Also depending on how the events play out. Might House Lannister and the Westerlands seek to stay neutral? House Lannister might be dominated by close kin like Martyn Lannister, Daven Lannister and Damon Lannister. They may not wish continue war on Cersei and Jaime's behalf. Perhaps they will seek peace with Aegon, and accept his overlordship as king.

[Terrorthatflapsinthenight9]

17 minutes ago, norwaywolf123 said:

If the House Lannister is in a bad shape, aswell as adverserial relations with Aegon and/or Riverlanders, Northmen and Valemem, will they not be incentivised to seek an alliance with Daenerys?

Also depending on how the events play out. Might House Lannister and the Westerlands seek to stay neutral? House Lannister might be dominated by close kin like Martyn Lannister, Daven Lannister and Damon Lannister. They may not wish continue war on Cersei and Jaime's behalf. Perhaps they will seek peace with Aegon, and accept his overlordship as king.

After what Tywin and Jaime did to the Targaryens, with one of Tywin's objectives having been of specifically burning bridges with the Targaryens forever so Robert knew that he and his family wouldn't turn on him should Targaryens return and as thus could become part of the new Baratheon regime, and with Tyrion, who killed Tywin and whose main motivation now is revenge on his family, being in Daenerys' side I am not optimistic about the chances of house Lannister siding with Daenerys soon. 

Maybe Aegon will forgive the other branches of house Lannister if they bend the knee to him after their house's defeat, but he'll obviously have no such mercy for Cersei and Jaime.

[Curled Finger]

21 minutes ago, norwaywolf123 said:

Extinction similar to the Reynes of Castamere? Or are you refering only to Tywin's children?

History overall, Ser.  The Starks are the only house to stand the test of time in Westeros.  As evidenced in House Stark, they all fall by the way side eventually.  The Lannisters can't possibly have 1/10 the loyalty of their bannermen that the Starks had.  

[EggBlue]

well, as everybody already said they'll be in an awful state. If I were one of the Targaryens , I would have even taken the Rock's gold as a punishment to pay the Iron Bank.

what I wonder about is where Jaimie might stand regarding Aegon. first , let's not consider stoneheart . Jaimie's priority right now is Tommen , probably  Myrcella when she comes back and his vows. I believe Tommen won't be killed by Aegon since according to Maggie's prophecy Myrcella will be crowned too and I don't think Arianne's little scheme would be counted. this will only leave Cersei who Jaimie has already stopped caring about. in feast we read of Jaimie's regrets for failing Rhaegar's wife and children. meanwhile , we were introduced to Young Griff. so, will he take up arms against Rhaegar's son when he no longer has an obligation to? 

[norwaywolf123]

18 hours ago, EggBlue said:

If I were one of the Targaryens , I would have even taken the Rock's gold as a punishment to pay the Iron Bank.

Then you either have to take the Rock, or be in such a dominant position that House Lannister will just accept your demands. I don't think that is likely. It is more likely and almost guaranteed that any debt owed to House Lannister is deleted, with House Lannister forced to swallow the lose. 

18 hours ago, EggBlue said:

what I wonder about is where Jaimie might stand regarding Aegon. first , let's not consider stoneheart . Jaimie's priority right now is Tommen , probably  Myrcella when she comes back and his vows. I believe Tommen won't be killed by Aegon since according to Maggie's prophecy Myrcella will be crowned too and I don't think Arianne's little scheme would be counted. this will only leave Cersei who Jaimie has already stopped caring about. in feast we read of Jaimie's regrets for failing Rhaegar's wife and children. meanwhile , we were introduced to Young Griff. so, will he take up arms against Rhaegar's son when he no longer has an obligation to? 

Jaime might be conflicted regarding Aegon. On one hand there is his regret for failing Rhaegar's family, Rhaegar being Aegons purported father. Eventually the death of either Tommen, Myrcella or Cersei will force him to fight against Aegon.

[EggBlue]

3 hours ago, norwaywolf123 said:

Then you either have to take the Rock, or be in such a dominant position that House Lannister will just accept your demands. I don't think that is likely. It is more likely and almost guaranteed that any debt owed to House Lannister is deleted, with House Lannister forced to swallow the lose. 

the point is , I think it will be likely but not in one instance. you see, Lannisters of Casterly Rock (the rich ones) are already weakened and made lots of enemies. Jaimie is missing, Tywin and Kevan are dead , Devan and Genna are in Riverlands with Lannister army , Martin L ( the last heir after Tywin's line) is missing and Cersei is in Kings Landing probably getting even weaker while fighting sparrows and Aegon. it's not far fetched to think this first Targaryen will at the very least delete the crown's debt to house Lannister. and when the next Targaryen comes ( the more powerful one who thinks of Lannisters as usurper's dogs and has a little man with her who has already promised half their wealth away to the Second Sons) she might look at the debts and with the winter in mind , she might force an already weakened house Lannister with her dragons and her might to pay the debts . and this way the phrase "as rich as a Lannister " will be erased for a few generations...

3 hours ago, norwaywolf123 said:

Jaime might be conflicted regarding Aegon. On one hand there is his regret for dailing Rhaegar's family, Rhaegar being Aegons purported father. Eventually the death of either Tommen, Myrcella or Cersei will force him to fight against Aegon.

it'll be Myrcella then. Tommen would die before her and Cersei won't be a motivation for him anymore...

[Apoplexy]

1 hour ago, EggBlue said:

 

it'll be Myrcella then. Tommen would die before her and Cersei won't be a motivation for him anymore...

My guess is that Tommen and Myrcella will die while Jaime is still 'missing' in the riverlands. Myrcella has been attacked already and I don't see her living too long due to the maggie prophesy. Jaime is already estranged from Cersei, so I highly doubt he would care too much for her, especially if she was somehow responsible for Tommen's death, directly or indirectly.

Since he is currently somewhere with the brotherhood, I see him supporting Jon's claim if he is Rhaegar's son. Aegon may or may not be legit and I doubt Jaime would want to support the company he keeps.

[EggBlue]

1 hour ago, Apoplexy said:

Since he is currently somewhere with the brotherhood, I see him supporting Jon's claim if he is Rhaegar's son. Aegon may or may not be legit and I doubt Jaime would want to support the company he keeps.

who do you mean?

[Apoplexy]

 

5 minutes ago, EggBlue said:

who do you mean?

The Golden Company, Varys and Illyrio is probably not the group Jaime trusts. Also, he is pretty mad at Tyrion, and Tyrion is with Aegon.

[EggBlue]

35 minutes ago, Apoplexy said:

 

The Golden Company, Varys and Illyrio is probably not the group Jaime trusts. Also, he is pretty mad at Tyrion, and Tyrion is with Aegon.

oh right... Varys and Illyrio are such a unlikely pair when it comes to high lords' trust, even JonCon doesn't like working with them. and Tyrion is with Dany. But Golden Company.. they would definitely be a huge problem for Aegon... but ,of course, Jaimie himself doesn't have the best reputation.. 

[Apoplexy]

6 minutes ago, EggBlue said:

oh right... Varys and Illyrio are such a unlikely pair when it comes to high lords' trust, even JonCon doesn't like working with them. and Tyrion is with Dany. But Golden Company.. they would definitely be a huge problem for Aegon... 

Its been a while since I've read the books, I was thinking about Tyrion convincing Aegon to head to Westeros, I forgot Tyrion's still in Essos. If Aegon mentions to people that he has met Tyrion, Jaime may not react well to that. Although I don't know if Jaime is truly THAT angry at Tyrion.

[Bowen Marsh]

The Lannisters are slowly deteriorating for the time being.  Whether that downwards spiral continues is not known at this time.  But they are still in the strongest position among the families to hold the throne.  Aegon, Euron, and Stannis are not powerful enough to challenge the Lannisters. 

Put aside Euron and Stannis for now.  Euron will face off with the Harlaw and Asha in the future.  Stannis, in my opinion, will not survive long.  He is probably already dead.  If Aegon pulls off a miracle and beats the Lannisters in war, no, he is not going to show mercy to Jaime.  Aegon is much less likely to show mercy compared to Daenerys.  Daenerys has proven herself a very intelligent young lady and tempers her judgement with mercy.  Case in point, Jorah Mormont.  Daenerys can set aside personal feelings to make a more productive decision.  She is very smart that way.  Aegon has so far shown himself an impetuous and quick tempered young man.  So for the sake of the Lannisters, it is better for them to fall under Daenerys compared to Aegon.  Aegon will fall under the feminine spell of Arrianne and they will push him towards a bloody campaign of revenge against the Lannisters. 

[norwaywolf123]

10 hours ago, Bowen Marsh said:

The Lannisters are slowly deteriorating for the time being.  Whether that downwards spiral continues is not known at this time.  But they are still in the strongest position among the families to hold the throne.  Aegon, Euron, and Stannis are not powerful enough to challenge the Lannisters. 

Aegon probably won't be able to take the Lannister core, though he will most likely take the Crownlands, and most territory under Lannister controll outside the Westerlands.

10 hours ago, Bowen Marsh said:

Put aside Euron and Stannis for now.  Euron will face off with the Harlaw and Asha in the future.  Stannis, in my opinion, will not survive long.  He is probably already dead.  If Aegon pulls off a miracle and beats the Lannisters in war, no, he is not going to show mercy to Jaime.  Aegon is much less likely to show mercy compared to Daenerys.  Daenerys has proven herself a very intelligent young lady and tempers her judgement with mercy.  Case in point, Jorah Mormont.  Daenerys can set aside personal feelings to make a more productive decision.  She is very smart that way.  Aegon has so far shown himself an impetuous and quick tempered young man.  So for the sake of the Lannisters, it is better for them to fall under Daenerys compared to Aegon. 

Daenerys is also much more willing to upset tradition than Aegon, who has been trained to become the ideal king. Unlike him Daenerys has shown herself willing to turn on the tradition of slavery in slaver's bay, and shown a desire to change many aspects of Dothraki tradition. As shown during Drogo's attack on the Lhazareen. Aegon wanting to be an ideal king, will want to keep traditional lords in place.

Tyrion is also accompanying Daenerys. Currently he seems beset by fantasies of vengeance against his siblings. Eventually he will probably either regret this path or change it. Perhaps he could help create an understanging between House Lannister and Daenerys, should House Lannister be forced on the backfoot by Aegon's faction? Whether Jaime and Cersei are alive or not Tyrion still has some albeit weakend ties (weakened due to the murder of Tywin) to House Lannister.

10 hours ago, Bowen Marsh said:

Aegon will fall under the feminine spell of Arrianne and they will push him towards a bloody campaign of revenge against the Lannisters. 

Will the Martells really feel a impenetrable need for further revenge on House Lannister, even after the death of Jaime, Cersei, Tommen and Myrcella? Won't they be satisfied with the death, capture and/or humiliation of Tywin's line?

Once the main branch of House Lannister (Jaime and Cersei) has been sidelined, more peripheral Lannisters might be willing to make peace. Damion Lannister is currently the castellan of Casterly Rock. As such he is in a key position to take the reins after the fall of Jaime and Cersei. Damion could become the defacto ruler, perhaps as regent, while Martyn Lannister is the dejure ruler. 

Daven Lannister might also become disillusioned by Jaime after Jaime abandoned him. That is if he survives what many believe to be a repeat of the Red Wedding.