The state of House Lannister when Daenerys arrives in Westeros?

[Terrorthatflapsinthenight9]

Besides the Lannister forces have already been severaly weakened by their defeats at Robb Stark and his man's hands in the Riverlands and Westerlands and without the support of the Tyrell armies they won't be a major force once Aegon's forces take the Crownlands and that their control over the Riverlands completely crumble.

Speaking of which the chances of Daven's survival are not very high, and neither Genna's either. The two may very likely find themselves casualties of Lady Stoneheart's vengeful crusade soon enough.

[norwaywolf123]

The possibility that Tyrion will use his knowledge of Casterly Rocks cisterns and drains to inflitrate and take Casterly Rock has been foreshadowed. At the very least the possibility has been prepared for GRRM to follow through.Should Tyrion take Casterly Rock, what would be the political context, and how will the state of House Lannister be?

Will Jaime and Cersei already have died or taken prisoner? Could the Lannisters of Casterly Rock have bent the knee to Aegon, after Jaime and Cersei fail to beat him? Are any of his Lannister kin at risk of death? Perhaps Martyn, Janei, Damion, Joy etc.

[Phylum of Alexandria]

I think the Lannister regime will be deposed by the newly crowned King Aegon. After that, I really don't have a good sense of where their stories are going.

I wouldn't totally count Cersei out as a threat. Surely there must be some purpose for Qyburn's resurrection of Robert Strong. Even if his role is solely to get Cersei out of her trial (and I hope it's more of a role than that)--surely her surviving said trial should be more important for the story than simply to get shut down by Aegon! It is for this reason that I think Cersei might ultimately serve as the late-story threat that constitutes ASOIAF's Scouring of the Shire scene. But that's really just a guess.

Jaime's story seems rooted for now in the Riverlands, with Lady Stoneheart and Brienne. I think he'll probably survive that ordeal, though perhaps he'll finally come to terms with all of the horrors his house had perpetuated. I do think there's a good chance that he will later neutralize the threat of Cersei, fulfilling her valonqar prophecy by playing the Grima to Cersei's Sharkey. 

I am of the mind that Tyrion will ultimately manifest as a heroic figure, though he will ride the line of villainy for some time before pulling back from the brink. Tyrion is so very good at manipulating others for his own gain and survival, yet he has shown a few moments of bravery and self-sacrifice. For that reason, maybe his redemption will end in his own heroic death. 

I certainly would love to see House Lannister come to an end, with their gold given to a reformist king for the reconstruction of Westeros.

 

 

[norwaywolf123]

On 12/13/2021 at 2:15 PM, Terrorthatflapsinthenight9 said:

Besides the Lannister forces have already been severaly weakened by their defeats at Robb Stark and his man's hands in the Riverlands and Westerlands and without the support of the Tyrell armies they won't be a major force once Aegon's forces take the Crownlands and that their control over the Riverlands completely crumble.

Speaking of which the chances of Daven's survival are not very high, and neither Genna's either. The two may very likely find themselves casualties of Lady Stoneheart's vengeful crusade soon enough.

Some commenters in the thread below have suggested that Daven and his Frey wife may survive the second red wedding at Riverrun. Should Daven and his Frey wife survive and be imprisoned. Then it would parallel Edmure and his Frey wife surviving and Edmure being imprisoned at the Twins. In the event that Daven survives whatever transpires at Riverrun in the Winds of Winter, what will his story be going foreward?

On the other hand, Daven's death could be important for Jaime's personal development. The death of Daven might be an important push factor for Jaime to become Shield of the West. Jaime have already relieved Daven of his command at the siege of Riverrun. Perhaps this is not the only responsibillity he will relieve Daven off?

[The Lord of the Crossing]

Jaime and Brienne will barricade themselves at the Rock.  White Walkers and Wights will surround the Rock.  Cersei will close the gates of King's Landing while the wights are knocking to come in.  All this will come to pass before Daenerys comes to the aid of Westeros. 

[norwaywolf123]

On 12/12/2021 at 9:14 PM, Apoplexy said:

Its been a while since I've read the books, I was thinking about Tyrion convincing Aegon to head to Westeros, I forgot Tyrion's still in Essos. If Aegon mentions to people that he has met Tyrion, Jaime may not react well to that. Although I don't know if Jaime is truly THAT angry at Tyrion.

Tyrion convincing Aegon to head for Westeros on his own without marrying Daenerys is one of the ASOIAFs most important points of divergence. In hindsight we the readers will see it as the reason for war between Daenerys and Aegon. Aegon seems likely to marry Arianne since Daenerys is not there, he is not gonna want to wait. After Aegon marries, he will make it impossible for Daenerys to rule by his side. She must then remove the mummer's dragon. If Aegon remains unmarried then Daenerys would probably marry him. Since it would be the easiest solution. It would be an almost too perfect solution. In which the hidden prince takes the throne from an "evil" unpopular queen, and illegitimate king who is ostensibly the son of the usurper, but really the son of the kingslayer who killed Daenerys father. After which the popular young king and his beautiful queen rules the kingdom beloved by lords and smallfolk alike.

Despite Aegon not really being the son of Rhaegar who he claims to be. He is of Targaryen lineage. Specifically the lineage of Daemon Blackfyre. Daenerys marriage to Aegon could thus bind togheter two kin lineages in an alliance and close the chapter of generational internecine conflict.

Even just asking Daenerys to join him would probably lessen any antipathy she eventually holds for him. Perhaps enough to accept that she lost her chance supposing Daenerys did not join him.

It is really a tragedy that the match never went through, and instead the realm got more war. 

On 12/12/2021 at 9:01 PM, EggBlue said:

oh right... Varys and Illyrio are such a unlikely pair when it comes to high lords' trust, even JonCon doesn't like working with them. and Tyrion is with Dany. But Golden Company.. they would definitely be a huge problem for Aegon... but ,of course, Jaimie himself doesn't have the best reputation.. 

Jaime does not have a good reputation, but how does it affect his dealings with other lords? Is it an important factor, or is it secondary to other factors?

[Apoplexy]

On 12/15/2021 at 9:38 AM, norwaywolf123 said:

 

It is really a tragedy that the match never went through, and instead the realm got more war. 

 

Even if Aegon and Dany had gotten married, house lannister/crown would still fight them. War is inevitable.

I personally think Jaime will somehow end up at Casterly Rock by the time Dany shows up at Westeros. I think he will be presumed lost/dead and will be replaced as LC.

[Only 89 selfies today]

The Lannisters offended a lot of powerful people.  Doran and the Sand Snakes have it out for them.  The Brother Without Banners are against them.  Then there is a crazy little assassin named Arya who lusts to spill their guts.  Tyrion signed away a significant chunk of their holdings.  The Greyjoys are rebelling again.  The Tyrell alliance can unravel any minute.  It's not looking good for the Lannisters.  They will be paupers when Daenerys gets her troops on the beaches of Westeros.  It will be D-day and the Lannisters, like the Nazis, will fall. 

[Apoplexy]

5 hours ago, Only 89 selfies today said:

The Lannisters offended a lot of powerful people.  Doran and the Sand Snakes have it out for them.  The Brother Without Banners are against them.  Then there is a crazy little assassin named Arya who lusts to spill their guts.  Tyrion signed away a significant chunk of their holdings.  The Greyjoys are rebelling again.  The Tyrell alliance can unravel any minute.  It's not looking good for the Lannisters.  They will be paupers when Daenerys gets her troops on the beaches of Westeros.  It will be D-day and the Lannisters, like the Nazis, will fall. 

Myrcella might be the bridge with Dorne, Jaime is with the Brotherhood now, they may come around. Cersei is on Arya's list, not the other Lannisters. Tyrion has it against Cersei, not necessarily other Lannisters. Greyjoys don't have the numbers and the Tyrells are unlikely to turn against the Lannisters while Margery is queen. Im not saying that the Lannisters will remain all powerful by the time Dany gets to Westeros, but I don't see them just being eliminated. They probably have a more of a role to play in the events to come.

[Terrorthatflapsinthenight9]

6 hours ago, Apoplexy said:

Myrcella might be the bridge with Dorne, Jaime is with the Brotherhood now, they may come around. Cersei is on Arya's list, not the other Lannisters. Tyrion has it against Cersei, not necessarily other Lannisters. Greyjoys don't have the numbers and the Tyrells are unlikely to turn against the Lannisters while Margery is queen. Im not saying that the Lannisters will remain all powerful by the time Dany gets to Westeros, but I don't see them just being eliminated. They probably have a more of a role to play in the events to come.

The bridge with Dorne has been burned a long time ago, Doran was never going to put a stop to his dreams and plans for revenge for Elia and her children's barbaric murders, and he'll seize the opportunity that is Aegon soon enough, and both Arianne and the Sand Snakes are going to accelerate the vengeance and Dorne openly warring against the Lannisters. Poor Myrcella was never going to be enough to mend things between house Lannister and Martell.

Same for Jaime, maybe he'll escape LS with Brienne's help but it's very unlikely that he'll be able of calming her rage and hatred for the Lannisters, and things are going to go deep shit for the Lannisters and the Freys in the Riverlands once the time for payback for Tywin and Jaime's invasion and desecration of the land and the Red Wedding arrive. And Devan and Genna are most likely going to be the first casualties of it 

And the alliance with the Tyrells will crumble soon anyway, with Kevan dead and Cersei free to alienate the Tyrells and sabotage the Lannisters' power again, not counting Aegon's forces being going to defeat the opposition the Lannisters and Tyrells throw at them knock at King's Landing door soon enough. 

The Lannisters won't be exterminated and they'll have their role but by the time Daenerys arrives it's pretty sure that their power will have crumbled and that the Westerlands will be the only kingdom still under their power and not wanting their heads.

[Apoplexy]

7 hours ago, Terrorthatflapsinthenight9 said:

The bridge with Dorne has been burned a long time ago, Doran was never going to put a stop to his dreams and plans for revenge for Elia and her children's barbaric murders, and he'll seize the opportunity that is Aegon soon enough, and both Arianne and the Sand Snakes are going to accelerate the vengeance and Dorne openly warring against the Lannisters. Poor Myrcella was never going to be enough to mend things between house Lannister and Martell.

Same for Jaime, maybe he'll escape LS with Brienne's help but it's very unlikely that he'll be able of calming her rage and hatred for the Lannisters, and things are going to go deep shit for the Lannisters and the Freys in the Riverlands once the time for payback for Tywin and Jaime's invasion and desecration of the land and the Red Wedding arrive. And Devan and Genna are most likely going to be the first casualties of it 

And the alliance with the Tyrells will crumble soon anyway, with Kevan dead and Cersei free to alienate the Tyrells and sabotage the Lannisters' power again, not counting Aegon's forces being going to defeat the opposition the Lannisters and Tyrells throw at them knock at King's Landing door soon enough. 

The Lannisters won't be exterminated and they'll have their role but by the time Daenerys arrives it's pretty sure that their power will have crumbled and that the Westerlands will be the only kingdom still under their power and not wanting their heads.

Most of the terrible things done by house lannister were Tywin and Cersei's doing. Tywin is dead and Cersei is estranged from the rest of the lannisters. Jaime is presently in the riverlands and Tyrion has alliances in Essos. They have lots of scope to reestablish their power.

[Terrorthatflapsinthenight9]

39 minutes ago, Apoplexy said:

Most of the terrible things done by house lannister were Tywin and Cersei's doing. Tywin is dead and Cersei is estranged from the rest of the lannisters. Jaime is presently in the riverlands and Tyrion has alliances in Essos. They have lots of scope to reestablish their power.

Most of them were complicit directly or indirectly in Tywin's crimes, and Cersei hasn't been abandonned by most of the Lannisters, only by Kevan and Jaime, and neither Tywin's death nor Cersei's downfall are going to clean the family reputation nor the grudges and burning hatred of the dornish, riverlanders, kingslanders and northmen.

Soon Jaime will have to flee from the Riverlands for his survival because once the downfall of house Frey begins thanks to Lady Stoneheart and the BWB, and that the rivermen are free to take arms again it will be Lannister hunting season there. 

Besides Tyrion hasn't a real alliance in Essos yet and he is in a revengeful mood toward his family right now, so I don't expect any kindness toward his family from his part before a while. Not counting that when it may happen house Lannister's regime will be already dead in the water, house Lannister severaly weakened and forced to retrench itself in the Westerlands, which have already suffered from Robb's invasion and risks suffering another invasion from Aegon's forces or the revengeful northmen and/or rivermen.

[Apoplexy]

1 hour ago, Terrorthatflapsinthenight9 said:

Most of them were complicit directly or indirectly in Tywin's crimes, and Cersei hasn't been abandonned by most of the Lannisters, only by Kevan and Jaime, and neither Tywin's death nor Cersei's downfall are going to clean the family reputation nor the grudges and burning hatred of the dornish, riverlanders, kingslanders and northmen.

Soon Jaime will have to flee from the Riverlands for his survival because once the downfall of house Frey begins thanks to Lady Stoneheart and the BWB, and that the rivermen are free to take arms again it will be Lannister hunting season there. 

Besides Tyrion hasn't a real alliance in Essos yet and he is in a revengeful mood toward his family right now, so I don't expect any kindness toward his family from his part before a while. Not counting that when it may happen house Lannister's regime will be already dead in the water, house Lannister severaly weakened and forced to retrench itself in the Westerlands, which have already suffered from Robb's invasion and risks suffering another invasion from Aegon's forces or the revengeful northmen and/or rivermen.

Unless the houses in Westeros plan to just roll over for Dany or Aegon, they will have to form alliances with people they dislike. And Cersei has been abandoned by most Lannisters. I doubt Genna has any fondness for Cersie. I think Jaime could serve to unite the west with the riverlands and the north.

[Terrorthatflapsinthenight9]

2 hours ago, Apoplexy said:

Unless the houses in Westeros plan to just roll over for Dany or Aegon, they will have to form alliances with people they dislike. And Cersei has been abandoned by most Lannisters. I doubt Genna has any fondness for Cersie. I think Jaime could serve to unite the west with the riverlands and the north.

After the devastation of the Riverlands, Ned Stark's execution and the Red Wedding there will be no alliance, even less an union, between the Westerlands and the North-Riverlands before many decades. And it will certainely not  be Jaime for his many actions toward them that will play a role 

You greatly underestimate the hatred and grudge than the northmen and rivermen will feel for all of house Lannister, and Jaime is certainely one of those they'll have the strongest ressentment for after his role into invading and ravaging the Riverlands and his killing of many northmen and his escape and later collaboration with the Freys.

As for Genna, as great of a character she is I don't have any illusion on what her fate is going to be once the BWB or vengeful rivermen take Riverrun back and hang the Freys here.

 

 

[Apoplexy]

45 minutes ago, Terrorthatflapsinthenight9 said:

After the devastation of the Riverlands, Ned Stark's execution and the Red Wedding there will be no alliance, even less an union, between the Westerlands and the North-Riverlands before many decades. And it will certainely not  be Jaime for his many actions toward them that will play a role 

You greatly underestimate the hatred and grudge than the northmen and rivermen will feel for all of house Lannister, and Jaime is certainely one of those they'll have the strongest ressentment for after his role into invading and ravaging the Riverlands and his killing of many northmen and his escape and later collaboration with the Freys.

As for Genna, as great of a character she is I don't have any illusion on what her fate is going to be once the BWB or vengeful rivermen take Riverrun back and hang the Freys here.

 

 

Jaime did not ravage the riverlands and he did not have any role to play in the RW.

I suppose we'll have to wait and watch, but I don't think the Lannisters are done yet.

[norwaywolf123]

On 12/18/2021 at 3:38 AM, Apoplexy said:

Even if Aegon and Dany had gotten married, house lannister/crown would still fight them. War is inevitable.

I personally think Jaime will somehow end up at Casterly Rock by the time Dany shows up at Westeros. I think he will be presumed lost/dead and will be replaced as LC.

It would be less war than we will get. Aegon is poised to remove House Lannister from the Ironthrone, and eventually to submit to his rule. If Aegon and Daenerys married then that would have been it. After casting House Lannister/House Baratheon of King's Landing from the Ironthrone there would have been peace. 

[Terrorthatflapsinthenight9]

43 minutes ago, Apoplexy said:

Jaime did not ravage the riverlands and he did not have any role to play in the RW.

I suppose we'll have to wait and watch, but I don't think the Lannisters are done yet.

Yes he did take part in his father's campaign to invade and ravage the Riverlands and sieged Riverrun before Robb's forces captured him, and he worked together with the very much despised and reviled Freys in AFFC and ADWD, and many would believe that he knew and was complicit in the RW anyway for being Tywin's son and continues serving the Lannister regime. He's surely far more hated and despised than liked and respected here.

They aren't done yet but they won't be one of the biggest players nor in control of any region other than the Westerlands anymore. They were already weakened by their defeats at Robb's hands, who eliminated tens of thousands of their soldiers and invaded a portion of the Westerlands, lost Tywin and Kevan, alienated Tyrion and soon they'll lose King's Landing and all of their holdings and allies in the other regions with the Boltons being exterminated, the Freys being decapitated by Walder Frey's death and hunted down like vermin by the BWB and vengeful northmen-rivermen, Littlefinger openly turning on them and the already fragile alliance with the Tyrells will be obliterated thanks to Cersei and Aegon. Plus they'll have heavy casualties such as Tommen, Daven and most likely Genna and Myrcella and possibly Cersei too. 

It's going to be their lowest point in their house history, with Tywin's actions ironically causing far more damage and shame to his family that his father ever could have done.

[Apoplexy]

1 hour ago, norwaywolf123 said:

It would be less war than we will get. Aegon is poised to remove House Lannister from the Ironthrone, and eventually to submit to his rule. If Aegon and Daenerys married then that would have been it. After casting House Lannister/House Baratheon of King's Landing from the Ironthrone there would have been peace. 

Quentyn has died in an attempt to court Dany's favor. The Martels are likely going to hold Dany responsible for that. And lets say the Lannisters and the crown were defeated, other houses in Westeros may not accept Targ rule. Plus there is the faith militant that thinks the targs dont worship the right gods. War is inevitable whether Aegon married Dany or not.

[Apoplexy]

1 hour ago, Terrorthatflapsinthenight9 said:

Yes he did take part in his father's campaign to invade and ravage the Riverlands and sieged Riverrun before Robb's forces captured him, and he worked together with the very much despised and reviled Freys in AFFC and ADWD, and many would believe that he knew and was complicit in the RW anyway for being Tywin's son and continues serving the Lannister regime. He's surely far more hated and despised than liked and respected here.

They aren't done yet but they won't be one of the biggest players nor in control of any region other than the Westerlands anymore. They were already weakened by their defeats at Robb's hands, who eliminated tens of thousands of their soldiers and invaded a portion of the Westerlands, lost Tywin and Kevan, alienated Tyrion and soon they'll lose King's Landing and all of their holdings and allies in the other regions with the Boltons being exterminated, the Freys being decapitated by Walder Frey's death and hunted down like vermin by the BWB and vengeful northmen-rivermen, Littlefinger openly turning on them and the already fragile alliance with the Tyrells will be obliterated thanks to Cersei and Aegon. Plus they'll have heavy casualties such as Tommen, Daven and most likely Genna and Myrcella and possibly Cersei too. 

It's going to be their lowest point in their house history, with Tywin's actions ironically causing far more damage and shame to his family that his father ever could have done.

Being at war with the houses in the riverlands is not the same as ravaging the riverlands. And the encounter with the Brotherhood without banners could go either ways. And if the choice is between Lannisters and targaryens, it is quite possible many houses would choose the lannisters.

[Terrorthatflapsinthenight9]

5 hours ago, Apoplexy said:

Being at war with the houses in the riverlands is not the same as ravaging the riverlands. And the encounter with the Brotherhood without banners could go either ways. And if the choice is between Lannisters and targaryens, it is quite possible many houses would choose the lannisters.

Ravaging the lands is a part of war Tywin never shyed away from doing, and it was made clear that Tywin had sent his hounds especially the Mountain to do that by attacking, pillaging, burning and raping all they came across by in the RL. A war that Tywin himself started. 

And after everything the Lannisters did to them the northmen and riverlanders will not side with them against other humans before a long time, it will take decades for the fufure head(s) of house Lannister to repair the damages done by Tywin and Joffrey and Cersei and mend the relations with the other great houses. 

Plus they won't be stupid enough to think that house Lannister will have a chance against Aegon's forces nor Daenerys' forces once they are freed from their Bolton and Frey tyrants, and the North will be majorly focused on the threat of the Others, and they'll likely prefer to side with Aegon or Dany than the Lannisters.