The state of House Lannister when Daenerys arrives in Westeros?

[Apoplexy]

19 hours ago, Terrorthatflapsinthenight9 said:

Ravaging the lands is a part of war Tywin never shyed away from doing, and it was made clear that Tywin had sent his hounds especially the Mountain to do that by attacking, pillaging, burning and raping all they came across by in the RL. A war that Tywin himself started. 

And after everything the Lannisters did to them the northmen and riverlanders will not side with them against other humans before a long time, it will take decades for the fufure head(s) of house Lannister to repair the damages done by Tywin and Joffrey and Cersei and mend the relations with the other great houses. 

Plus they won't be stupid enough to think that house Lannister will have a chance against Aegon's forces nor Daenerys' forces once they are freed from their Bolton and Frey tyrants, and the North will be majorly focused on the threat of the Others, and they'll likely prefer to side with Aegon or Dany than the Lannisters. 

 

Exactly, Tywin. Who is dead.

I suppose we'll have to agree to disagree (since we are speculating) on whether the houses in the north and riverlands would side with Targs. 

[Terrorthatflapsinthenight9]

4 hours ago, Apoplexy said:

Exactly, Tywin. Who is dead.

I suppose we'll have to agree to disagree (since we are speculating) on whether the houses in the north and riverlands would side with Targs. 

Tywin's legacy doesn't stop at his death: the damage, wounds and hatred caused by his actions and atrocities, with him having never lost the support and loyalty of his family so they'll be seen as accomplices of his atrocities by most, are far too fresh and present and we have already seen during Dorne chapters that his death hasn't stopped house Martell and Dorne's hatred and desire of vengeance against the Lannisters to end at all. 

It won't be different for the northerners and riverlanders who have suffered even more because of Tywin and his family's actions, and who have no reasons to dislike the Targaryen pretendants more than the Lannisters at all. 

I guess that our opinions are very different but I think that you are greatly underestimating the consequences of the Lannister regime actions and how strong the hatred and grudges against house Lannister are, for extremely good reasons.

[norwaywolf123]

6 hours ago, Terrorthatflapsinthenight9 said:

Tywin's legacy doesn't stop at his death: the damage, wounds and hatred caused by his actions and atrocities, with him having never lost the support and loyalty of his family so they'll be seen as accomplices of his atrocities by most, are far too fresh and present and we have already seen during Dorne chapters that his death hasn't stopped house Martell and Dorne's hatred and desire of vengeance against the Lannisters to end at all. 

It won't be different for the northerners and riverlanders who have suffered even more because of Tywin and his family's actions, and who have no reasons to dislike the Targaryen pretendants more than the Lannisters at all. 

I guess that our opinions are very different but I think that you are greatly underestimating the consequences of the Lannister regime actions and how strong the hatred and grudges against house Lannister are, for extremely good reasons.

I agree that feelings of distrust between the Westerlands, Riverlands and the North are guaranteed to remain for the rest of the books. Still, that does not mean that their is no chance at all for cooperation between these regions, or merely a few Riverlands houses and the Westerlands. Should the political landscape change then the people will have to change accordingly.

Suppose that due to Aegon Blackfyre's conquest many/some Riverlords lose their lands and titles. These lords would then be more inclined to cooperate with House Lannister and the Westerlands. This could happen even if their is distrust between them.

I am not sure how the Riverlands will be divided in support for Aegon. Whether every, most, half or only a few Riverlords will support Aegon. Most likely either every, most or atleast half the Riverlands will support Aegon. The position of the BWB on Aegon also matters. How will the BWB be inclined to view Aegon?

During the Dance of Dragons the Riverlands was divided in support for Aegon II and Rhaenyra. Will the Riverlands be divided in the coming showdown between Daenerys and Aegon Blackfyre? 

[Terrorthatflapsinthenight9]

4 minutes ago, norwaywolf123 said:

I agree that feelings of distrust between the Westerlands, Riverlands and the North are guaranteed to remain for the rest of the books. Still, that does not mean that their is no chance at all for cooperation between these regions, or merely a few Riverlands houses and the Westerlands. Should the political landscape change then the people will have to change accordingly.

Suppose that due to Aegon Blackfyre's conquest many/some Riverlords lose their lands and titles. These lords would then be more inclined to cooperate with House Lannister and the Westerlands. This could happen even if their is distrust between them.

I am not sure how the Riverlands will be divided in support for Aegon. Whether every, most, half or only a few Riverlords will support Aegon. Most likely either every, most or atleast half the Riverlands will support Aegon. The position of the BWB on Aegon also matters. How will the BWB be inclined to view Aegon?

During the Dance of Dragons the Riverlands was divided in support for Aegon II and Rhaenyra. Will the Riverlands be divided in the coming showdown between Daenerys and Aegon Blackfyre? 

So far we don't know how will Aegon acts toward the Riverlands but nothing hints that he intends to replace or sanction any of the Riverlords.

Also as Barbrey Dustin said during ADWD, the Lannisters are going to be a spent force soon enough with them having lost a great portion of their armies to Robb Stark and his supporters who inflicted several crushing defeats on them and invaded the Westerlands for a time. Not counting that they are going to lose the one thing that allowed them to get the upper hand in the war and kept them in power, and that's the alliance with house Tyrell and the Reach.

The loss of this alliance, thanks in no small part to Cersei's petty and stupid schemes and with the Tyrells surely going to be busy dealing with the Ironborn, several treacherous bannermen who rallied Aegon and several losses in men and possibly of Mace and Margaery, will make the prospect of allying with their Lannister oppressors even less attractive since there will be no interest into allying with a severaly weakened and isolated Lannister family.

With all of that, the grudge against the Lannisters, the fact that the Riverlands will be severaly weakened themselves by all the shits and bloodshed that have happened to them and will continue with the revenge over the Red Wedding, and not counting the arrival of an incredibly harsh winter will most certainely make the Riverlords decide to either turn again to their old alliance with the North and and the Vale with LF being about to openly turn against the Lannisters soon and try to get the North through Sansa, or to bend the knee to Aegon.

[Quoth the raven,]

It will be a long while before Daenerys Targaryen comes to Westeros. Our hero has a lot of important matters to deal with in her own theatre.  She will win the support of the Dothraki and use them to free the slaves in the Bay.  It will be a long campaign because the slavers have allies.  Westeros will be in chaos because the nobles will be playing their political games.  The game of thrones.  The dust will not settle because of a truce but because all of the nobles will have spent their resources in fighting.  Aegon the Fake, Jaime, LF, Euron, and such will be shivering behind their walls and starving.  Ice will cover the land with death and destruction.  Bran will betray his mentor, Brynden Rivers, and use his control abilities to send the wights past the wall and into the north to attack the Boltons.  Bran will unintentionally become the cause of the fall of the north to the White Walkers as Jon was the cause of the Watch to fail.  Lords will starve and shiver behind their walls and the peasants will do the same in their huts.  It is during this time that Azor Ahai, Daenerys Targaryen, will come to Westeros.

The answer to your question, the Lannisters will be in deep trouble.  They  will be in a state of barely surviving when Daenerys comes to Westeros.  

[Dofs]

What even is the state of the Lannisters now? The last Lannister forces left the capital in Feast, part of it went with Tywin's corpse back to the Westerlands, part of it left with Jaime to Riverrun. There, after Jaime ended the siege, part of that force too left back to Westerlands escorting Edmure, part of it went with Jaime to Raventree Hall. After Jaime ended the siege there and disappeared, it can be safely assumed that that army also just went home. The Lannister army is essentially dissolved.

Now let's look to King's Landing and Cersei's rule, how exactly the Lannister rule looks like there, what is the position of Westerlands in the court? Well, it's essentially non-existent. The only Westerman Cersei appointed to a position of power was Harys Swift and even he was put there for the sole reason of being a hostage against Kevan. There is literally no one else, also, neither are there any Lannister soldiers left in the capital. Cersei is a proud Lannister but clearly does not care whatsoever about Westerlands and Casterly Rock, about enforcing the position of Westerlands in the kingdom, or even about enforcing the position of House Lannister itself. She evidently sees herself as a Queen of the whole 7 kingdoms, rather then a ruler of just one kingdom, even if it is her home and she is supposed to be the Lady of it.

Hence my question, is it even fair to say that Lannisters are even a part of the current ruling structure? Because as far as I can tell, it's just Cersei there who doesn't even operate with House Lannister and Westerlands in mind. De facto the Lannister rule is already over.

[norwaywolf123]

19 minutes ago, Dofs said:

Cersei is a proud Lannister but clearly does not care whatsoever about Westerlands and Casterly Rock, about enforcing the position of Westerlands in the kingdom, or even about enforcing the position of House Lannister itself. She evidently sees herself as a Queen of the whole 7 kingdoms, rather then a ruler of just one kingdom, even if it is her home and she is supposed to be the Lady of it.

This! Not only Cersei, but everyone of Tywin's children are much more tied to the Ironthrone than too the Westerlands. This obsession seems to be shared with Tywin, who was raised as a page in King's Landing.

6 minutes ago, Dofs said:

Hence my question, is it even fair to say that Lannisters are even a part of the current ruling structure? Because as far as I can tell, it's just Cersei there who doesn't even operate with House Lannister and Westerlands in mind. De facto the Lannister rule is already over.

The head of House Lannister Cersei is clearly focused on the Ironthrone. Jaime and Tyrion also are much more closely linked to King's Landing than to Casterly Rock. Jaime might get a closer connection to the Westerlands over the next books. Tyrion is probably going to stay focused on the Ironthrone, even as he desires the lordship of Casterly Rock. While the current leadership of House Lannister is more focused on the Ironthrone, their kin still lives in the Westerlands. It is this kin who will be the future of House Lannister.

[norwaywolf123]

6 hours ago, Terrorthatflapsinthenight9 said:

So far we don't know how will Aegon acts toward the Riverlands but nothing hints that he intends to replace or sanction any of the Riverlords.

Preston Jacobs in the series Riverlands of the Dragon suggests that the BWB are Targaryen loyalists. He also points out the increasing number of widows and heiresses, which coincidentally will help Golden Company men gain lands. Many Golden Company men have Riverlands roots or claim to have such roots.

The Golden Company and Aegon Blackfyre will probably gain most or all of the Crownlands, the Stormlands, the Riverlands and the Reach before Daenerys arrives in Westeros. The Vale however, is not likely to be subdued by Aegon. 

6 hours ago, Terrorthatflapsinthenight9 said:

Also as Barbrey Dustin said during ADWD, the Lannisters are going to be a spent force soon enough with them having lost a great portion of their armies to Robb Stark and his supporters who inflicted several crushing defeats on them and invaded the Westerlands for a time. Not counting that they are going to lose the one thing that allowed them to get the upper hand in the war and kept them in power, and that's the alliance with house Tyrell and the Reach.

The Riverlands and the North have also suffered casualties.

[Dofs]

34 minutes ago, norwaywolf123 said:

This! Not only Cersei, but everyone of Tywin's children are much more tied to the Ironthrone than too the Westerlands. This obsession seems to be shared with Tywin, who was raised as a page in King's Landing.

I would still differentiate Cersei from others. For Tyrion becoming the Lord of Casterly Rock is still his number one dream, when Cersei essentially went "I am the Lady of Casterly Rock now, whatever, I am the Queen!" when she got the Rock. For Tywin getting power in King's Landing was only means to his actual goal - growing the power of his House Lannister, while for Cersei the goal clearly is the former, not the latter. And for Jaime, he was still talking with Genna about protecting House Lannister after Tywin's death, something Cersei never even thinks about. While all four are heavily connected to King's Landing, it's just Cersei who only cares about it and nothing else.

34 minutes ago, norwaywolf123 said:

The head of House Lannister Cersei is clearly focused on the Ironthrone. Jaime and Tyrion also are much more closely linked to King's Landing than to Casterly Rock. Jaime might get a closer connection to the Westerlands over the next books. Tyrion is probably going to stay focused on the Ironthrone, even as he desires the lordship of Casterly Rock. While the current leadership of House Lannister is more focused on the Ironthrone, their kin still lives in the Westerlands. It is this kin who will be the future of House Lannister.

But Tyrion isn't a part of the Lannister leadership in King's Landing, and Jaime seems like on the way out too. He is MIA at the moment somewhere in Riverlands. And honestly, his connection to King's Landing right now is due to responsibility to his role of the Kingsguard. Personally he doesn't care about the place or about Lannister control over it. It's still just Cersei at the moment who isn't even acting like she is representing House Lannister.

[Terrorthatflapsinthenight9]

19 minutes ago, norwaywolf123 said:

Preston Jacobs in the series Riverlands of the Dragon suggests that the BWB are Targaryen loyalists. He also points out the increasing number of widows and heiresses, which coincidentally will help Golden Company men gain lands. Many Golden Company men have Riverlands roots or claim to have such roots.

The Golden Company and Aegon Blackfyre will probably gain most or all of the Crownlands, the Stormlands, the Riverlands and the Reach before Daenerys arrives in Westeros. The Vale however, is not likely to be subdued by Aegon. 

The Riverlands and the North have also suffered casualties.

The BWB members are above all worshippers of R'hllor, they don't follow any great house in particular unless they view one of their members as being a chosen of the Lord of Light, and in general I take Preston Jacob's theories with a grain of salt he makes some interesting points but can overstrech in his ideas or overinterpretate some points. 

And my point about the Lannisters being weakened also still stands, and while the North is also weakened it will at least got back some power with the return of the Starks and they have been of course been far closer and friendlier to the RL than the Westerlands, and soon will get a new ally in the Vale.

While the Riverlords may choose to bend the knee to Aegon because they'll be weary of war and have to face winter, they still have far greater chances of allying with the North again than with the Lannisters. 

And I wouldn't call Aegon Aegon Blackfyre before it's proven that he's a Blackfyre descendant.

[Apoplexy]

6 hours ago, Dofs said:

But Tyrion isn't a part of the Lannister leadership in King's Landing, and Jaime seems like on the way out too. He is MIA at the moment somewhere in Riverlands. And honestly, his connection to King's Landing right now is due to responsibility to his role of the Kingsguard. Personally he doesn't care about the place or about Lannister control over it. It's still just Cersei at the moment who isn't even acting like she is representing House Lannister.

Tyrion thinks himself lord of casterly rock. When he comes back to Westeros, he is not going to want to just forget about the rock and focus on KL. And Jaime is geographically closer to the rock than tyrion or cersei. And he was never neutral all throughout his tenure in the KG. To me it seems like Jaime is moving away from KL towards the rock.

[Apoplexy]

20 hours ago, Terrorthatflapsinthenight9 said:

I guess that our opinions are very different but I think that you are greatly underestimating the consequences of the Lannister regime actions and how strong the hatred and grudges against house Lannister are, for extremely good reasons.

All alliances that will be formed will depend on how each house views targs. Dislike of targs has the potential to make strange bedfellows. 

[Terrorthatflapsinthenight9]

5 hours ago, Apoplexy said:

All alliances that will be formed will depend on how each house views targs. Dislike of targs has the potential to make strange bedfellows. 

Since their hostility toward Lannisters is just as strong or even stronger and much fresher than the one they may have for the Targs, I can see many unusuals alliances in the last books but certainely not one between the Stark/Tullys and the Lannisters.

In addition of their grudge, there is no real political or strategic advantage or pragmatism into siding with the Lannisters that will have lost most of their forces and all lands outside of the Westerlands over the Targs who will be much stronger military and have more allies and supporters.

Allying with your worst enemies that have backstabbed you and butchered your people and family is already very unlikely to happen, it's even less going to happen if supporting them is a lost cause. 

[Bowen 747]

The Lannisters will first have to survive fAegon and his attack.  The young man is not going to forgive Jaime.  Peace with the Lannisters is not possible.  The Lannisters either kill fAegon or he kills them.  Aegon, Sand Snakes, and Jon C will want blood from the Lannisters.  

[Apoplexy]

17 hours ago, Terrorthatflapsinthenight9 said:

Since their hostility toward Lannisters is just as strong or even stronger and much fresher than the one they may have for the Targs, I can see many unusuals alliances in the last books but certainely not one between the Stark/Tullys and the Lannisters.

The groundwork for this alliance has been laid through Brienne searching for Sansa using a Lannister sword and resources. 

17 hours ago, Bowen 747 said:

The Lannisters will first have to survive fAegon and his attack.  The young man is not going to forgive Jaime.  Peace with the Lannisters is not possible.  The Lannisters either kill fAegon or he kills them.  Aegon, Sand Snakes, and Jon C will want blood from the Lannisters.  

Aegon has already been introduced to one Lannister brother. He has already treated with house lannister.

[Terrorthatflapsinthenight9]

5 hours ago, Apoplexy said:

The groundwork for this alliance has been laid through Brienne searching for Sansa using a Lannister sword and resources. 

Aegon has already been introduced to one Lannister brother. He has already treated with house lannister.

Brienne and a sword given to her by Jaime weight very little compared to the invasion and ravage of the Riverlands, execution of Ned, the Red Wedding and the barbaric murder and desecration of the bodies of Robb, Catelyn and many Northerners and Riverlanders lords and soldiers and to Lannisters' rewarding of the Boltons and the Freys.

And what will the Lannisters have to offer them to make up for all of that ? What will have they to offer them to make it worth it to ally with them against Aegon or Daenerys especially when they'll be already losing against Aegon with their regime crumbling ?

[Apoplexy]

22 hours ago, Terrorthatflapsinthenight9 said:

Brienne and a sword given to her by Jaime weight very little compared to the invasion and ravage of the Riverlands, execution of Ned, the Red Wedding and the barbaric murder and desecration of the bodies of Robb, Catelyn and many Northerners and Riverlanders lords and soldiers and to Lannisters' rewarding of the Boltons and the Freys.

Its the olive branch towards reconciliation, not reparations. Its a start.

22 hours ago, Terrorthatflapsinthenight9 said:

And what will the Lannisters have to offer them to make up for all of that ? What will have they to offer them to make it worth it to ally with them against Aegon or Daenerys especially when they'll be already losing against Aegon with their regime crumbling ?

That they are not targaryens. Viserys made up all that stuff about people in Westeros sewing dragon banners and waiting for targs to come back to westeros. 

[Terrorthatflapsinthenight9]

1 hour ago, Apoplexy said:

Its the olive branch towards reconciliation, not reparations. Its a start.

That they are not targaryens. Viserys made up all that stuff about people in Westeros sewing dragon banners and waiting for targs to come back to westeros. 

Them not being Targaryens is far from enough of a reason to ally with them, they have proven that they weren't so different from them and right now the Lannisters are more despised and hated that the Targaryens were during Robert's Rebellion.  

And Aegon defeating the Lannisters and ending their regime might in fact be welcomed very warmly by most riverlanders, northmen and in all of the Seven Kingdoms save the Westerlands. This may give a positive first impression of Aegon for many.  

[Apoplexy]

10 hours ago, Terrorthatflapsinthenight9 said:

Them not being Targaryens is far from enough of a reason to ally with them, they have proven that they weren't so different from them and right now the Lannisters are more despised and hated that the Targaryens were during Robert's Rebellion.  

And Aegon defeating the Lannisters and ending their regime might in fact be welcomed very warmly by most riverlanders, northmen and in all of the Seven Kingdoms save the Westerlands. This may give a positive first impression of Aegon for many.  

I highly doubt the targaryens will be preferred over lannisters, especially since the last targ king routinely burnt people. And there is a distinct possibility house lannister will splinter. Cersei will try to hold the crown, tyrion will ally with either aegon or tyrion and Jaime is moving away from cersei. He may reconcile with Tyrion or may have a different alliance in the riverlands. At least one faction of house lannister will be remain viable.

[Terrorthatflapsinthenight9]

1 minute ago, Apoplexy said:

I highly doubt the targaryens will be preferred over lannisters, especially since the last targ king routinely burnt people. And there is a distinct possibility house lannister will splinter. Cersei will try to hold the crown, tyrion will ally with either aegon or tyrion and Jaime is moving away from cersei. He may reconcile with Tyrion or may have a different alliance in the riverlands. At least one faction of house lannister will be remain viable.

The Targaryens had much more loyalists during Robert's Rebellion than the Lannisters have in this war, and that there are still houses and individuals loyal to the Targaryens in the Reach, Riverlands and possibly in other regions thanks in no small part to Rhaegar's charisma and charm having conquered so many despite his screw-ups, not counting the support from Dorne that Aegon will have. In addition King's Landing and the Crownlands will be overjoyed to see Aegon beat and chase the much despised and hated Lannisters and will love him for that.

And the Lannisters have managed to beat Rhaegar Aerys into hurting and oppressing many great houses and people with the sack of King's Landing, the barbaric murders of Elia Martell and her children, Ned's execution, the ravage of the Riverlands and the Red Wedding. 

So the chances of them being more popular than the Targaryens in the North, Riverlands and most of the kingdoms are close to zero.

Once the bulk of the remaining Lannister forces, as they have been severaly weakened by Robb, and the Tyrells are defeated by the Golden Company, dornish army and stormlanders and reachmen loyal to Aegon, and that King's Landing is taken by Aegon and Jon Connington the Lannisters won't be a match for Aegon anymore and will be reduced to a shadow of themselves.

They'll be only a secondary player with Aegon's, Daenerys' sides and the Others being the only real big players left in the game.