The state of House Lannister when Daenerys arrives in Westeros?

[Apoplexy]

27 minutes ago, Terrorthatflapsinthenight9 said:

The Targaryens had much more loyalists during Robert's Rebellion than the Lannisters have in this war,

This is an assumption. Also, alliances can form pretty quickly; no one expected the freys to ally with lannisters and turn on the starks (well, everyone expected it, no one expected them to outright kill people under guest right)

30 minutes ago, Terrorthatflapsinthenight9 said:

So the chances of them being more popular than the Targaryens in the North, Riverlands and most of the kingdoms are close to zero.

Another assumption.

31 minutes ago, Terrorthatflapsinthenight9 said:

Once the bulk of the remaining Lannister forces, as they have been severaly weakened by Robb, and the Tyrells are defeated by the Golden Company, dornish army and stormlanders and reachmen loyal to Aegon, and that King's Landing is taken by Aegon and Jon Connington the Lannisters won't be a match for Aegon anymore and will be reduced to a shadow of themselves.

Tyrion might be a player here.

31 minutes ago, Terrorthatflapsinthenight9 said:

They'll be only a secondary player with Aegon's, Daenerys' sides and the Others being the only real big players left in the game.

Jaime tyrion and cersei are major characters in the series. Asoiaf isn't a story just about targaryens. And other major houses will be factors in the outcome of events too.

[Terrorthatflapsinthenight9]

1 hour ago, Apoplexy said:

This is an assumption. Also, alliances can form pretty quickly; no one expected the freys to ally with lannisters and turn on the starks (well, everyone expected it, no one expected them to outright kill people under guest right)

Another assumption.

Tyrion might be a player here.

Jaime tyrion and cersei are major characters in the series. Asoiaf isn't a story just about targaryens. And other major houses will be factors in the outcome of events too.

That's not an assomption, there were Targaryen loyalists in most of the kingdoms, with Jon Arryn, Robert Baratheon and Hoster Tully having to fight a portion of their own vassals and bannermen during the war, which can't be said for the Lannisters.

Neither that none of the Lannisters have or have had the same degree of popularity and charm than Rhaegar Targaryen had. 

Also the Boltons and Freys turned to the Lannisters because the Lannisters were in dominant position thanks to the alliance with the Tyrells, as well as the Stark cause having been weakened with Theon's taking of Winterfell and murder of "Bran and Rickon", as well as Catelyn's release of Jaime. 

This time the Lannisters will be on the short end of the stick, and with all the atrocities they have commited directiy or indirectly and by keeping associating themselves with people such as the Boltons and the Freys and alienating their Tyrell allies that are the very reason they were able to be dominant and keep themselves in power, they will have very hard time convincing others that they are trustworthy. 

And the North-Riverlands aren't going to side with someone that they cannot trust, who has backstabbed and wronged them even more than Aerys and Rhaegar during Robert's Rebellion and whose royal cause is a lost one anyway as they'll lose the support of the Tyrells, the Iron Throne and King's Landing.

Plus they are already severaly weakened too and will have far more urgent things to worry about with the arrival of a very harsh winter and of the Others once the Boltons and the Freys are gone.

[Apoplexy]

5 hours ago, Terrorthatflapsinthenight9 said:

That's not an assomption, there were Targaryen loyalists in most of the kingdoms, with Jon Arryn, Robert Baratheon and Hoster Tully having to fight a portion of their own vassals and bannermen during the war, which can't be said for the Lannisters.

Neither that none of the Lannisters have or have had the same degree of popularity and charm than Rhaegar Targaryen had. 

Also the Boltons and Freys turned to the Lannisters because the Lannisters were in dominant position thanks to the alliance with the Tyrells, as well as the Stark cause having been weakened with Theon's taking of Winterfell and murder of "Bran and Rickon", as well as Catelyn's release of Jaime. 

There were targaryen 'loyalists' probably beacuse they assumed the targs to win the eventual war. I realize that targs have dragons this time, but the story has laid groundwork for dragons being poisoned or people just attacking them in large numbers and killing them. Without dragons, Dany and aegon will be in a pretty bad position.

 

5 hours ago, Terrorthatflapsinthenight9 said:

This time the Lannisters will be on the short end of the stick, and with all the atrocities they have commited directiy or indirectly and by keeping associating themselves with people such as the Boltons and the Freys and alienating their Tyrell allies that are the very reason they were able to be dominant and keep themselves in power, they will have very hard time convincing others that they are trustworthy. 

And the North-Riverlands aren't going to side with someone that they cannot trust, who has backstabbed and wronged them even more than Aerys and Rhaegar during Robert's Rebellion and whose royal cause is a lost one anyway as they'll lose the support of the Tyrells, the Iron Throne and King's Landing.

Plus they are already severaly weakened too and will have far more urgent things to worry about with the arrival of a very harsh winter and of the Others once the Boltons and the Freys are gone.

No house has its hands clean, so I'm not sure why every other house is going to single out the lannisters.

[Dofs]

On 12/22/2021 at 7:42 AM, Bowen 747 said:

The Lannisters will first have to survive fAegon and his attack.  The young man is not going to forgive Jaime.  Peace with the Lannisters is not possible.  The Lannisters either kill fAegon or he kills them.  Aegon, Sand Snakes, and Jon C will want blood from the Lannisters.  

I doubt Jaime is going to be present for fAegon's attack.

[Terrorthatflapsinthenight9]

8 hours ago, Apoplexy said:

There were targaryen 'loyalists' probably beacuse they assumed the targs to win the eventual war. I realize that targs have dragons this time, but the story has laid groundwork for dragons being poisoned or people just attacking them in large numbers and killing them. Without dragons, Dany and aegon will be in a pretty bad position.

 

No house has its hands clean, so I'm not sure why every other house is going to single out the lannisters.

And because the Targaryens had been kings of Westeros for nearly 300 years, had a prestige that no other great house had as the kings of the Seven Kingdom, because they were still seen as the legitimate royals and because many still had faith in Rhaegar and believed in his potential as a king for good or wrong reasons. 

And it doesn't change the fact that the Lannisters never had and will never have that number of followers and people as loyal to them in other kingdoms than their own region of the Westerlands, and that none of the remaining Lannisters could hope to charm and rally as many people as Rhaegar. 

Well the Lannisters have their hands particulary dirty these last years in Westeros, and they have managed to offend even more and get even more hatred from the northmen, rivermen and dornish that the Targaryens did before and during Robert's Rebellion. And these offenses and atrocities are far more recent and fresher in their minds that what Rhaegar and Aerys did. 

So it's not the Starks, the Tullys, the Martells and their followers who are going to support house Lannister against the Golden Company and other people who'll join Aegon. In fact the Martells are going to join him and get their revenge for Elia and her children, and for Oberyn's incredibly brutal and cruel deaths. Meanwhile the northmen will be busy preparing for winter and the Others, and the riverlords will most likely bend the knee to Aegon or follow Littlefinger and Sansa and knights of the Vale once the Vale openly turns on the Lannisters. 

[Terrorthatflapsinthenight9]

The inevitable incoming siege and taking of King's Landing by the Golden Company and other Young Griff's supporters is going to be cataclysmic for the Lannisters. It will be a blow from which they won't be able to recover before decades and it will end their power over any region other than the Westerlands, in which they'll have no choice but to retrench and the Lannisters that aren't children of Tywin will likely prefer to bend the knee than risk suffering the same fate that the Boltons and the Freys are going to get, the one that Tywin inflicted on houses Tarbeck and Reyne. 

The city will cetainely in chaos with popular riots and revolts against them possibly started by the High Sparrow, mass defections from Lannister men, Varys and his birds doing sabotages and murdering key subordinates, the Sand Snakes doing their things and possibly murdering poor Tommen themselves. 

And if Cersei isn't killed by the Valonqar here, who could possibly be Loras Tyrell, her already very twisted mind is most certainely going to snap for good and she'll get a very pathetic and miserable end in Casterly Rock. 

[Apoplexy]

14 hours ago, Terrorthatflapsinthenight9 said:

And because the Targaryens had been kings of Westeros for nearly 300 years, had a prestige that no other great house had as the kings of the Seven Kingdom, because they were still seen as the legitimate royals and because many still had faith in Rhaegar and believed in his potential as a king for good or wrong reasons. 

Now is not 300 years ago or even 10 yrs ago. Things change.

14 hours ago, Terrorthatflapsinthenight9 said:

And it doesn't change the fact that the Lannisters never had and will never have that number of followers and people as loyal to them in other kingdoms than their own region of the Westerlands, and that none of the remaining Lannisters could hope to charm and rally as many people as Rhaegar. 

Well the Lannisters have their hands particulary dirty these last years in Westeros, and they have managed to offend even more and get even more hatred from the northmen, rivermen and dornish that the Targaryens did before and during Robert's Rebellion. And these offenses and atrocities are far more recent and fresher in their minds that what Rhaegar and Aerys did. 

I don't see a lannister king/queen, so the comparison with Rhaegar is moot.  Again, now is not the same as some time ago. Do you base what you say on anything other than everyone hates the Lannisters (which is an assumption)?

[H Wadsworth Longfellow]

Cersei and Jaime won't be around that long.  Mutual destruction will take place between the Lannisters and the Martells before Dany lands on Westeros. 

[norwaywolf123]

On 12/22/2021 at 3:27 AM, Apoplexy said:

Tyrion thinks himself lord of casterly rock. When he comes back to Westeros, he is not going to want to just forget about the rock and focus on KL. And Jaime is geographically closer to the rock than tyrion or cersei. And he was never neutral all throughout his tenure in the KG. To me it seems like Jaime is moving away from KL towards the rock.

Tyrion might doom House Lannister's ties to Daenerys, but he could also be a proponent. Unfortunately for Daenerys ties to House Lannister, he is more likely to be a liabillity in this regard. His desire for the Rock, and the unwillingness of most Lannister to relinquish controll to the kinslayer, aswell as Daenerys probable loyalty to her friend/advisor.

On 12/22/2021 at 3:34 AM, Apoplexy said:

All alliances that will be formed will depend on how each house views targs. Dislike of targs has the potential to make strange bedfellows. 

Suggestion of how House Lannister might declare for Daenerys, and thus become allies to her allies.

It looks like House Lannister will lose controll over the Ironthrone in the Winds of Winter to Aegon Blackfyre. After losing controll and influence outside their core they will eventually be forced to either submit to Aegon or continue to fight. What conditions would Aegon demand? What will he be able to demand? Should House Lannister chose to fight then they will be vulnerable alone. The Ironborn does appear to focus their efforts on lands likely to defect in favor of Aegon, therefore the Westermen might be spared their ravages. 

In any event, fighting alone is likely a doomed pursuit. However Daenerys is set to arrive in Westeros. Aegon will likely controll most of the Southron kingdoms. Wishing to slay the mummer's dragon and secure her "birthright", she will need allies. After their fall from grace, House Lannister might want to desire to bind themselves to potential allies. Here Daenerys will appear as the obvious ally, as they will share a common enemy, namely Aegon.

Any allies of Daenerys will thus become their own allies. Daenerys other allies might be the Vale, the North and a many Riverlords. Many of whom would have been the enemies of House Lannister recently and vice versa.

On 12/23/2021 at 7:45 AM, Terrorthatflapsinthenight9 said:

Brienne and a sword given to her by Jaime weight very little compared to the invasion and ravage of the Riverlands, execution of Ned, the Red Wedding and the barbaric murder and desecration of the bodies of Robb, Catelyn and many Northerners and Riverlanders lords and soldiers and to Lannisters' rewarding of the Boltons and the Freys.

And what will the Lannisters have to offer them to make up for all of that ? What will have they to offer them to make it worth it to ally with them against Aegon or Daenerys especially when they'll be already losing against Aegon with their regime crumbling ?

The Westerlands, The Riverlands and the North may simply support the same sovereign. Thus they would be allies despite bad blood between them.

[norwaywolf123]

On 12/22/2021 at 8:42 AM, Bowen 747 said:

The Lannisters will first have to survive fAegon and his attack.  The young man is not going to forgive Jaime.  Peace with the Lannisters is not possible.  The Lannisters either kill fAegon or he kills them.  Aegon, Sand Snakes, and Jon C will want blood from the Lannisters.  

House Lannister will remain even after Jaime, Cersei, Tyrion, Tommen, Myrcella dies. Also after Genna and Daven die. Those who remain, whoever that is, will inherit House Lannister and all it's grudges. Will Aegon be able to conquer the Westerlands or otherwise force a surrender? Eventually, yes he would. However Daenerys is set to arrive, her emnity towards Aegon and need for allies, will offer House Lannister allies against Aegon. Perhaps the conditions or lack thereof will make supporting Aegon more desireable for House Lannister? Or they might simply use the opportunity to wait for Daenerys and Aegon's followers to bleed each other. Who knows?

[norwaywolf123]

On 12/24/2021 at 8:30 AM, Terrorthatflapsinthenight9 said:

Them not being Targaryens is far from enough of a reason to ally with them, they have proven that they weren't so different from them and right now the Lannisters are more despised and hated that the Targaryens were during Robert's Rebellion.  

And Aegon defeating the Lannisters and ending their regime might in fact be welcomed very warmly by most riverlanders, northmen and in all of the Seven Kingdoms save the Westerlands. This may give a positive first impression of Aegon for many.  

Sentiment is not static. The Winds of Winter will be eventfull, and more blood will flow. Who knows how political alliances will develop over future events?

On 12/24/2021 at 6:55 PM, Apoplexy said:

I highly doubt the targaryens will be preferred over lannisters, especially since the last targ king routinely burnt people. And there is a distinct possibility house lannister will splinter. Cersei will try to hold the crown, tyrion will ally with either aegon or tyrion and Jaime is moving away from cersei. He may reconcile with Tyrion or may have a different alliance in the riverlands. At least one faction of house lannister will be remain viable.

I doubt that Aerys actions will have much effect on future alliances. Beyond the ties they created between the Vale, the North and the Riverlands. The Riverlands will probably be divided in their sympathies going foreward. Divided between Aegon and Daenerys supporters, aswell as those attempting to stay neutral (if any). The other kingdom of Robert's Rebellion, the Stormlands appears to have been taken by Aegon, atleast for now.

[norwaywolf123]

On 12/24/2021 at 7:28 PM, Terrorthatflapsinthenight9 said:

They'll be only a secondary player with Aegon's, Daenerys' sides and the Others being the only real big players left in the game.

Exactly! House Lannister may have to declare for either Aegon or Daenerys. Who would they declare for? The popular King Aegon or Queen Daenerys who has dragons? Currently events look set to happen that will drive House Lannister from Aegon, and thus towards Daenerys. That is unless Aegon completly forces the Westerlands to submit prior to Daenerys arrival. 

[norwaywolf123]

On 12/24/2021 at 8:07 PM, Apoplexy said:

Jaime tyrion and cersei are major characters in the series. Asoiaf isn't a story just about targaryens. And other major houses will be factors in the outcome of events too.

In my opinion ASOIAF is a story about House Targaryen and House Stark, aswell as a whole range of non-Stark/Targaryen characters. Jaime, Tyrion and Cersei are among the most major characters to the series, but House Lannister as a noble family is not.

On 12/25/2021 at 4:01 AM, Dofs said:

I doubt Jaime is going to be present for fAegon's attack.

Jaime will anyway be forced to deal with the aftermath.

On 12/25/2021 at 11:32 AM, Terrorthatflapsinthenight9 said:

And it doesn't change the fact that the Lannisters never had and will never have that number of followers and people as loyal to them in other kingdoms than their own region of the Westerlands, and that none of the remaining Lannisters could hope to charm and rally as many people as Rhaegar. 

This is enough for them to be desired as allies. It is doubtfull that anyone will declare for Tommen after Aegon's arrival. Additionally it is unlikelt that Tommen will survive for long. However if House Lannister accepts that the sovereign won't be one of them and declare for Daenerys. Will her supporters whether they are Northmen or Valemen say no? Can they undermine Daenerys in such a way? Yes, but they would be liable to support their sovereign. Who aspires to be queen of Westeros. Not queen of Westeros except the Westerlands.

On 12/25/2021 at 11:32 AM, Terrorthatflapsinthenight9 said:

and the riverlords will most likely bend the knee to Aegon or follow Littlefinger and Sansa and knights of the Vale once the Vale openly turns on the Lannisters. 

Will there even be a significant Lannister presence their when the Vale invades? 

On 12/25/2021 at 11:47 AM, Terrorthatflapsinthenight9 said:

The inevitable incoming siege and taking of King's Landing by the Golden Company and other Young Griff's supporters is going to be cataclysmic for the Lannisters. It will be a blow from which they won't be able to recover before decades and it will end their power over any region other than the Westerlands, in which they'll have no choice but to retrench and the Lannisters that aren't children of Tywin will likely prefer to bend the knee than risk suffering the same fate that the Boltons and the Freys are going to get, the one that Tywin inflicted on houses Tarbeck and Reyne. 

The city will cetainely in chaos with popular riots and revolts against them possibly started by the High Sparrow, mass defections from Lannister men, Varys and his birds doing sabotages and murdering key subordinates, the Sand Snakes doing their things and possibly murdering poor Tommen themselves. 

And if Cersei isn't killed by the Valonqar here, who could possibly be Loras Tyrell, her already very twisted mind is most certainely going to snap for good and she'll get a very pathetic and miserable end in Casterly Rock. 

I doubt it will be a long siege. King's Landing will probably open the gates to Aegon. Cersei will be promptly betrayed by a large part of her "followers". Tommen will probably die during or soon after Aegon takes King's Landingm Myrcella too unless she is given to the faith, as have happened to other noble girls before. Cersei won't die, she will hang on for a bit, her survival will hamper Jaime's personal transformation.

[X-Buster]

Tyrion and his sellswords will reach Westeros before Dany does.  The real battle for the Lannisters is with Tyrion and his new company.  They want Lannister lands.  Tyrion signed a contract to transfer ownership of Lannister lands to the officers of the sellsword company.  Cersei and Jaime will experience the same homelessness which they have inflicted on the other families.  

Jaime may survive long enough to meet Daenerys.  She will forgive Jaime if she thinks he can be of use to her plans.  By forgive, I do not mean in the traditional sense.  She will not execute him nor hurt him for the sake of getting even.  Daenerys is not a Martell or a Stark.  She has a better grasp of the big picture.  She can see above their petty family quarrels.  Fake Aegon will not have the same wisdom but he will be cast down anyway.  He is the second of the lies which Daenerys will uncover and reveal.  

Cersei and Sansa are each other's rivals and enemy.  Cersei has a better head on her shoulders than Sansa.  I would love to see Sansa and Rickon battle for Winterfell but I don't see how Sansa could last that long.  Sansa would be better off joining the Septas.  

[EggBlue]

12 minutes ago, Unit A2 said:

 

 Daenerys is not a Martell or a Stark.

 

because those two families are the real monsters of the series! mindless wild wolves and senseless venomous vipers!

[Apoplexy]

1 hour ago, norwaywolf123 said:

Tyrion might doom House Lannister's ties to Daenerys, but he could also be a proponent. Unfortunately for Daenerys ties to House Lannister, he is more likely to be a liabillity in this regard. His desire for the Rock, and the unwillingness of most Lannister to relinquish controll to the kinslayer, aswell as Daenerys probable loyalty to her friend/advisor.

It's possible the association with Tyrion could be a detriment to Dany. It could go either way. But who doesn't want Jaime to be the leader of house lannister?

1 hour ago, norwaywolf123 said:

It looks like House Lannister will lose controll over the Ironthrone in the Winds of Winter to Aegon Blackfyre. After losing controll and influence outside their core they will eventually be forced to either submit to Aegon or continue to fight.

It's Cersei that holds the IT. Other Lannisters might want Cersei to not have any power and ally with either Aegon or Dany to remove cersei from power so that house lannister does not lose their position and power.

 

1 hour ago, norwaywolf123 said:

Sentiment is not static. The Winds of Winter will be eventfull, and more blood will flow. Who knows how political alliances will develop over future events?

I agree.

1 hour ago, norwaywolf123 said:

doubt that Aerys actions will have much effect on future alliances.

Probably, but people who are just dislike tars for being targs have Aerys as the last targ king and that sets a terrible precedent.

56 minutes ago, norwaywolf123 said:

In my opinion ASOIAF is a story about House Targaryen and House Stark, aswell as a whole range of non-Stark/Targaryen characters. Jaime, Tyrion and Cersei are among the most major characters to the series, but House Lannister as a noble family is not.

I got a different feeling reading the books. I got a feeling the books were more character driven. And it's a story about how these characters will deal with each other and the threat beyond the wall.

 

[X-Buster]

1 minute ago, EggBlue said:

because those two families are the real monsters of the series! mindless wild wolves and senseless venomous vipers!

The Starks and the Lannisters are the ones who pushed Westeros into the War of the Five Kings which continues to inflict misery on the people.  But yeah, the Martells and the Greyjoys are adding salt to the wound.  

[Dofs]

57 minutes ago, norwaywolf123 said:

Jaime will anyway be forced to deal with the aftermath.

As soon as fAegon gets the throne, the power of Lannisters will essentially be gone outside of Westerlands since it's already basically nonexistent everywhere else anyway. And if Jaime misses fAegon's ascension then I am not sure how much is he going to be forced to get involved. fAegon will have to deal with Tyrells, the defacto power behind current ruling class, first, then maybe with Ironborn, he will need to consolidate KL and then Dany will come soon after. Then the Others will eventually arrive too. I don't think fAegon will have time to focus on Jaime to force him to get involved.

[Apoplexy]

22 minutes ago, Unit A2 said:

She has a better grasp of the big picture.  She can see above their petty family quarrels.

Dany driving force is how her family was wronged and she has to take back her place as the rightful queen of westeros.

23 minutes ago, Unit A2 said:

Cersei has a better head on her shoulders than Sansa. 

How?

[X-Buster]

6 minutes ago, Apoplexy said:

Dany driving force is how her family was wronged and she has to take back her place as the rightful queen of westeros.

How?

Daenerys can set things like that aside.  This girl chose to stay in Meereen and help the slaves.  She could have turned around and made her way to Westeros already.  She can put aside the desire for revenge for something more constructive.  That's why she deserves have the Iron throne.  

Cersei is smarter than Sansa.  It's just her Lioness temper and her bitterness which trips her up each time.