The state of House Lannister when Daenerys arrives in Westeros?

[Apoplexy]

1 hour ago, Unit A2 said:

Daenerys can set things like that aside.  This girl chose to stay in Meereen and help the slaves.  She could have turned around and made her way to Westeros already.  She can put aside the desire for revenge for something more constructive.  That's why she deserves have the Iron throne

She still has the desire for revenge, she's just distracted. And I am going to ignore 'dany the messiah' since this isn't the thread for it.

1 hour ago, Unit A2 said:

Cersei is smarter than Sansa.  It's just her Lioness temper and her bitterness which trips her up each time.  

Doesn't that say she isn't smart enough to temper her terrible impulses? And all her decisions are pretty shortsighted, to put it mildly. 

[Brother Seamus]

so, apoplexy, your thesis is that some or all of the riverlands and the north rallies to support cersei against Aegon? Not a chance. first of all, even if they thought about it, aegon will take king's landing too fast. cersei will barely escape with her life. tommone will be dead before aegon takes the throne.

i agree the tyrells are a question mark, though. my prediction is that they get margery out of kings landing to make sure she's safe and then stand aside and declare themselves aegon supporters. 

 

there won't even be a battle for kings landing. tommen will die somehow, probably at the hands of the sand snakes, and cersei will flee. myrcella will remain a defacto hostage of the martells.

the bigger question is who successfully throws their daughter at aegon, the martells or tyrells. i predict martells. ariane will have it sewed up before the tyrells know what's going on, and margery is damaged goods at this point anyway; three husbands and still a virgin? aegon won't believe it.

[Apoplexy]

2 hours ago, Brother Seamus said:

so, apoplexy, your thesis is that some or all of the riverlands and the north rallies to support cersei against Aegon?

No.

My thoughts are that house lannister will distance itself from Cersei. And it is possible that the north and/or riverlands might ally with the Lannisters (Jaime or Tyrion) against either Aegon or Dany. The possibilities are endless really.

[Apoplexy]

2 hours ago, Brother Seamus said:

margery is damaged goods at this point anyway; three husbands and still a virgin? aegon won't believe it.

Why would aegon care so long as it is certain margery isn't pregnant? (assuming she is presented as a potential wife)

[norwaywolf123]

On 12/27/2021 at 4:16 AM, Apoplexy said:

It's possible the association with Tyrion could be a detriment to Dany. It could go either way. But who doesn't want Jaime to be the leader of house lannister?

Tyrion does for the moment desire the lordship of Casterly Rock. Perhaps Tyrion could eventually accept Jaime as lord or even Martyn? 

Among the Westermen it does appear that Jaime is still popular, and that he would meet little resistance should he proclaim is decision to become Tywin's heir. Cersei will stand in his way, she would likely feel that Jaime usurped her. Their relationship would deteriorate as a result.

Perhaps Cersei will have Jaime removed from the kingsguard in a fit of anger after he dissapeared, or perhaps thinking that Jaime is dead? Or maybe he is replaced by someone favored by the Tyrells. The death of Tommen and Aegon's taking of King's Landing could prompt Jaime to accept his place as Lord Lannister.

Jaime also does not need to be lord to be the leader of House Lannister. He could simply be very influential or even regent should Martyn become lord.

Most likely Jaime will increasingly take a more influential roles in the Westerlands during tWoW.

On 12/27/2021 at 4:16 AM, Apoplexy said:

It's Cersei that holds the IT. Other Lannisters might want Cersei to not have any power and ally with either Aegon or Dany to remove cersei from power so that house lannister does not lose their position and power.

I am not sure of Cersei's fate during tWoW. Perhaps she will be captured? Or will she be able to escape King's Landing and head towards the Westerlands? If she is able to flee, and does reach Casterly Rock then she would likely rule House Lannister. Perhaps Jaime will usurp her though? Besides have their been a build up to suggest that other Lannister might turn on Cersei (and perhaps Jaime), sideline her in favor of Martyn or simply not follow her.

On 12/27/2021 at 4:16 AM, Apoplexy said:

I got a different feeling reading the books. I got a feeling the books were more character driven. And it's a story about how these characters will deal with each other and the threat beyond the wall.

I agree that it is mostly character driven, but the fate of House Stark and House Targaryen does occupy a central role in the story. Which House Lannister, House Martell, House Greyjoy, House Velaryon, House Frey, House Arryn does not share. This is probably unavoidable since GRRM focused on House Stark early on.

[norwaywolf123]

On 12/27/2021 at 4:20 AM, Dofs said:

As soon as fAegon gets the throne, the power of Lannisters will essentially be gone outside of Westerlands since it's already basically nonexistent everywhere else anyway. And if Jaime misses fAegon's ascension then I am not sure how much is he going to be forced to get involved. fAegon will have to deal with Tyrells, the defacto power behind current ruling class, first, then maybe with Ironborn, he will need to consolidate KL and then Dany will come soon after. Then the Others will eventually arrive too. I don't think fAegon will have time to focus on Jaime to force him to get involved.

After Tommen's death and the likely Tyrell defeat against the Golden Company, they might simply defect. If they are able to do so favorably. The defection of lords to Aegon will probably depend on how greedy the Golden Company and it's allies are for lands.

Jaime and other Westermen might not declare for Aegon. This will directly lead to conflict between them. 

[norwaywolf123]

18 hours ago, Brother Seamus said:

so, apoplexy, your thesis is that some or all of the riverlands and the north rallies to support cersei against Aegon? Not a chance. first of all, even if they thought about it, aegon will take king's landing too fast. cersei will barely escape with her life. tommone will be dead before aegon takes the throne.

The idea that the North and some Riverlords will support Cersei against Aegon is probably not existent. They may however end up on the same side against Aegon.

[Apoplexy]

6 hours ago, norwaywolf123 said:

Tyrion does for the moment desire the lordship of Casterly Rock. Perhaps Tyrion could eventually accept Jaime as lord or even Martyn? 

Among the Westermen it does appear that Jaime is still popular, and that he would meet little resistance should he proclaim is decision to become Tywin's heir. Cersei will stand in his way, she would likely feel that Jaime usurped her. Their relationship would deteriorate as a result.

Perhaps Cersei will have Jaime removed from the kingsguard in a fit of anger after he dissapeared, or perhaps thinking that Jaime is dead? Or maybe he is replaced by someone favored by the Tyrells. The death of Tommen and Aegon's taking of King's Landing could prompt Jaime to accept his place as Lord Lannister.

Jaime also does not need to be lord to be the leader of House Lannister. He could simply be very influential or even regent should Martyn become lord.

Most likely Jaime will increasingly take a more influential roles in the Westerlands during tWoW.

I agree, I think Jaime will be influential in west during winds. If I had to make a guess, i'd say cersei will dismiss him from the KG and install one of her cronies to the position. And if tommen is dead and cersei gets power somehow, I think someone will take Loras's position on the KG too. As for tyrion, I think he'll probably get over his bitterness and acknowledge Jaime as lord if Jaime is dismissed.

7 hours ago, norwaywolf123 said:

I am not sure of Cersei's fate during tWoW. Perhaps she will be captured? Or will she be able to escape King's Landing and head towards the Westerlands? If she is able to flee, and does reach Casterly Rock then she would likely rule House Lannister. Perhaps Jaime will usurp her though? Besides have their been a build up to suggest that other Lannister might turn on Cersei (and perhaps Jaime), sideline her in favor of Martyn or simply not follow her.

If we have only two more books, I am pretty sure Cersie dies at the end of winds or beginning of Dream. I don't see her gaining control of the Rock.

7 hours ago, norwaywolf123 said:

I agree that it is mostly character driven, but the fate of House Stark and House Targaryen does occupy a central role in the story. Which House Lannister, House Martell, House Greyjoy, House Velaryon, House Frey, House Arryn does not share. This is probably unavoidable since GRRM focused on House Stark early on.

GRRM did say Tyrion was his favorite character to write (I think). Which is why I believe fate of house lannister is an important for the story.

[norwaywolf123]

11 hours ago, Apoplexy said:

I agree, I think Jaime will be influential in west during winds. If I had to make a guess, i'd say cersei will dismiss him from the KG and install one of her cronies to the position. And if tommen is dead and cersei gets power somehow, I think someone will take Loras's position on the KG too. As for tyrion, I think he'll probably get over his bitterness and acknowledge Jaime as lord if Jaime is dismissed.

If we have only two more books, I am pretty sure Cersie dies at the end of winds or beginning of Dream. I don't see her gaining control of the Rock.

Jaime is also liable to die, either in the tWoW or aDoS (a Dream of Spring). His character development over the tWoW is likely going to be substantial, but i think it will not be finished. His relationship with Cersei will take precedent again. Perhaps Jaime will have a short fling with Brienne? Something similar to what was rumored to exist between Daemon the rogue prince and Nettles. He is not likely to marry even if he became lord.

Do you think Jaime's transformation will be finished? What does finished entail?

Perhaps Jaime will die after being captured by Aegon? He would then be imprisoned together with Cersei. Their final death could come as Daenerys takes King's Landing. With the building collapsing on Jaime and Cersei.

The Lannister inheritance will probably end up with Martyn, despire which of Tywin's children rule Casterly Rock. Whether this happens because of their death or failure to produce their own heirs. 

11 hours ago, Apoplexy said:

GRRM did say Tyrion was his favorite character to write (I think). Which is why I believe fate of house lannister is an important for the story.

GRRM still has an outline to follow. The ending has to some extent been decided. What transpires on the pages before he finishes is it's own story.

Though i agree that House Lannister is important to the story, i think it's importance is secondary to Starks and Targaryens.

[James West]

House Lannister and all of the other houses will be in a sad, sorry state by the time Daenerys Targaryen comes to her Westeros.  It will be too late to rescue and save most of the houses.  Westeros will need to be rebuilt from the ground up.  New nobility will rise up to replace the Lannisters.

[Terrorthatflapsinthenight9]

I wouldn't be surprised if in the end it's not Tyrion nor Jaime but one of the secondary lines of house Lannister, such as Martyn or Tyrek who end up becoming the lord of Casterly Rock.  

That would be greatly ironic given how much emphasis Tywin put on his legacy which would complete his failure to secure his with his children and grandchildren.

It would be even more ironic if it's Tyrek given how much ressentment his father Tygett had for being completely overshadowed by Tywin and unable to beat him in any area, yet in the end his legacy would surpass Tywin's. 

[Apoplexy]

14 hours ago, norwaywolf123 said:

Jaime is also liable to die, either in the tWoW or aDoS (a Dream of Spring). His character development over the tWoW is likely going to be substantial, but i think it will not be finished. His relationship with Cersei will take precedent again. Perhaps Jaime will have a short fling with Brienne? Something similar to what was rumored to exist between Daemon the rogue prince and Nettles. He is not likely to marry even if he became lord.

I hope Jaime and Brienne don't have a short lived relationship. I would hope that if Jaime has a relationship/marriage (if Jaime lives till the end of the books, I can see him marrying) I hope it is fulfilling/permanent.

14 hours ago, norwaywolf123 said:

Do you think Jaime's transformation will be finished? What does finished entail?

I think finished would mean him living/dying as a hero in the pages of history books.

14 hours ago, norwaywolf123 said:

Perhaps Jaime will die after being captured by Aegon? He would then be imprisoned together with Cersei. Their final death could come as Daenerys takes King's Landing. With the building collapsing on Jaime and Cersei

I really don't think Jaime and Cersei will die together. Cersei will die for sure IMO, Maggy told her as much. Jaime woke up from his dream before he died in it. So we don't know he is destined to die. If he does, foreshadowing says he dies fighting beside Brienne, not with Cersie.

14 hours ago, norwaywolf123 said:

The Lannister inheritance will probably end up with Martyn, despire which of Tywin's children rule Casterly Rock. Whether this happens because of their death or failure to produce their own heirs. 

I dont know, both Jaime and Tyrion could somehow have legitimate heirs.

14 hours ago, norwaywolf123 said:

GRRM still has an outline to follow. The ending has to some extent been decided. What transpires on the pages before he finishes is it's own story.

 

If you mean how the show ended, I'm not sure how much GRRM revealed to the HBO writers. We could get some things end differently, at least i hope so. Because that ending would be just terrible.

[Dofs]

On 12/28/2021 at 6:28 PM, norwaywolf123 said:

After Tommen's death and the likely Tyrell defeat against the Golden Company, they might simply defect. If they are able to do so favorably. The defection of lords to Aegon will probably depend on how greedy the Golden Company and it's allies are for lands.

Jaime and other Westermen might not declare for Aegon. This will directly lead to conflict between them. 

Well, if Tommen dies, I don't think we can talk about lords "defecting" from the Lannisters because they aren't loyal to the Lannisters in the first place (except for their actual bannermen, of course). They are loyal to a de jure Baratheon sitting on the Iron Throne which gives him the legitimacy. Both Lannisters and Tyrells (and more Tyrells than Lannisters nowadays) are just the principal supporters of Tommen who enforce said legitimacy. But as Jaime himself has said, just by moving Tommen from Kings Landing to Casterly Rock will make Tommen lose his legitimacy in front of others and make him into another pretender same as Stannis. If Tommen dies and someone else take his place on the Throne that is not a Lannister/Tyrell person (like, for example, Myrcella), then the Lannisters would lose any power and influence in the court by definition. You can't really call any of that a "defection".

I also suspect that Dany is going to invade herself before Aegon will have time to deal with Jaime and Westerlands.

[norwaywolf123]

On 12/31/2021 at 2:23 PM, Dofs said:

Well, if Tommen dies, I don't think we can talk about lords "defecting" from the Lannisters because they aren't loyal to the Lannisters in the first place (except for their actual bannermen, of course). They are loyal to a de jure Baratheon sitting on the Iron Throne which gives him the legitimacy. Both Lannisters and Tyrells (and more Tyrells than Lannisters nowadays) are just the principal supporters of Tommen who enforce said legitimacy. But as Jaime himself has said, just by moving Tommen from Kings Landing to Casterly Rock will make Tommen lose his legitimacy in front of others and make him into another pretender same as Stannis. If Tommen dies and someone else take his place on the Throne that is not a Lannister/Tyrell person (like, for example, Myrcella), then the Lannisters would lose any power and influence in the court by definition. You can't really call any of that a "defection".

Great point. Though would House Lannister surrender to the next king, or will they resist?

On 12/31/2021 at 2:23 PM, Dofs said:

I also suspect that Dany is going to invade herself before Aegon will have time to deal with Jaime and Westerlands.

This presents a opportunity for Jaime and the Westerlands to ally with Daenerys, by means of recognising her as queen. That is if Tommen has been cast down, which he probably will be. Though said Lannister alliance with Daenerys does have some factors against it. Such as Tyrion's animosity towards his siblings, his siblings animosity towards Tyrion, Barristans animosity towards Jaime and Cersei, and Daenerys feelings regarding Jaime, the man who killed her father.

I do however think it is going to make sense. Because the Lannisters will lose what influence they have on the Ironthrone with Tommen's death (and Myrcella's death should she become queen). Aswell as the difficult position the Lannister probably will get into after Aegon success in tToF.

[Here's Looking At You, Kid]

How about frozen state.  As in they will be wights.  The Lannisters and the Starks have not been punished yet for inflicting war and dividing Westeros. 

[norwaywolf123]

On 12/30/2021 at 4:37 AM, Apoplexy said:

I hope Jaime and Brienne don't have a short lived relationship. I would hope that if Jaime has a relationship/marriage (if Jaime lives till the end of the books, I can see him marrying) I hope it is fulfilling/permanent.

In the event that Jaime gets married. Do you have any idea of who Jaime might marry? Will it be Brienne? Or perhaps he will marry for a political/dynastic alliance? Would Margaery be an option for a poltical marriage (though this depends on whether House Tyrell submits to Aegon)?

Perhaps Jaime could marry Daenerys? Thus binding House Lannister to her cause. Which should not be a problem after Tommen's death.

[Apoplexy]

20 minutes ago, norwaywolf123 said:

In the event that Jaime gets married. Do you have any idea of who Jaime might marry? Will it be Brienne? Or perhaps he will marry for a political/dynastic alliance? Would Margaery be an option for a poltical marriage (though this depends on whether House Tyrell submits to Aegon)?

Perhaps Jaime could marry Daenerys? Thus binding House Lannister to her cause. Which should not be a problem after Tommen's death.

Jaime is a hopeless romantic. And he does a lot of things for love, so I am hoping if he marries, it will be for love too. Brienne seems the most likely choice for that, because where the books are right now, they both seem to like each other. That could easily translate to love. 

He could have a political match that could evolve into love, but I really do not see Jaime marrying for political reasons. To be honest I don't see Jaime marrying before the end of the books. If he does, it will be in the end as a way for Jaime to get what he always desired but didn't quite have, family and love.

[Dofs]

On 1/2/2022 at 12:01 AM, norwaywolf123 said:

This presents a opportunity for Jaime and the Westerlands to ally with Daenerys, by means of recognising her as queen

Maybe, though I wonder if they do anything at all during the Dany x Aegon conflict. Their army is crippled and dissolved after all, they might want to sit that one out.

Overall I think the second Dance of Dragons will be more of a Crownlands/Stormlands/Reach/Dorne/Iron Isles thing. 

[Brother Seamus]

On 12/27/2021 at 9:07 PM, Apoplexy said:

Why would aegon care so long as it is certain margery isn't pregnant? (assuming she is presented as a potential wife)

I think in the asoiaf universe high lords, kings etc require virginity at this level.

[Apoplexy]

On 1/18/2022 at 3:31 PM, Brother Seamus said:

I think in the asoiaf universe high lords, kings etc require virginity at this level.

If some lord was marrying a widow/divorcee (marriage annulled), the only thing they would care about is that woman isn't pregnant with the previous husband's child. If someone wanted to marry a virgin, they would go for a woman who hasn't been married (of course no guarantee of virginity). But if Aegon is marrying Margery for political reasons, 'virginity' is not going to be an issue of concern.