Covid 19 #43: Oh Omicron, oh Omicron, how numerous are thy spike proteins.

[Which Tyler]

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/healthcare?areaType=nhsRegion&areaName=London

Hospitalisations in London triples in the last 3 weeks

[Heartofice]

5 minutes ago, Which Tyler said:

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/healthcare?areaType=nhsRegion&areaName=London

Hospitalisations in London triples in the last 3 weeks

What percentage are people admitted primarily FOR Covid?

[Which Tyler]

As far as I'm aware, that statistic isn't available, or possible to extract retrospectively.

100% are admitted with known Covid though (I think Wales is the only UK region that includes suspected-but-not-confirmed cases on this stat. None include cases found after admission).

[Heartofice]

1 minute ago, Which Tyler said:

As far as I'm aware, that statistic isn't available, or possible to extract retrospectively

The stat I saw the other day, was that well over half ( probably more) of hospitalisations in london with covid did not have Covid as the primary reason for being admitted. I think it’s a really important statistic when making claims about the severity of Omicron, especially given the time of year.

At a quick glance at that page it looks like a large percentage of those admitted were elderly?

[Heartofice]

Data coming out from imperial now as well that potentially individuals infected with Omicron are 15-20% less likely to be hospitalised and 40-45% less likely to be in hospital for more than a night. That’s positive news, balanced against sheer number of cases but if South African trends follow then we could see a flattening and drop in cases as well. 

[Which Tyler]

I've seen that stat talked about, but I'm yet to see a source for it.

It's a really important stat that no-one cared about until it suited their narrative to need it.

It's not unimportant now, just like it wasn't unimportant for previous waves. It's just unavailable.

 

As for the imperial stat, I'd thought it was a nice round 80%* - which is absolutely brilliant news if verified.

 

 

* Either you or the BBC messed the %age around.

80% less likely / 20% as likely was the BBC figure - which is ridiculously good.

20% less likely is decent, but nowhere near enough to make up for the increased infection rate.

 

 

ETA, BBC cocked up: http://www.imperial.ac.uk/news/232882/some-reduction-hospitalisation-omicron-delta-england/

[Heartofice]

8 minutes ago, Which Tyler said:

I've seen that stat talked about, but I'm yet to see a source for it.

It's a really important stat that no-one cared about until it suited their narrative to need it.

It's not unimportant now, just like it wasn't unimportant for previous waves. It's just unavailable.

 

As for the imperial stat, I'd thought it was a nice round 20% - which is absolutely brilliant news if verified.

https://www.ft.com/content/c14173c9-1ab7-4386-aeae-70cdac666503
 

Quote

Of the 169 additional coronavirus-positive patients in hospital, 111 were not being treated primarily for Covid and only incidentally tested positive after admission for other conditions, suggesting the figures could overstate the level of additional pressure on the NHS. A similar trend was observed in a hospital in the South African city of Tshwane, the centre of the Omicron outbreak there.

I think it’s a stat people always cared about, it’s just that it’s especially relevant if you are talking about a less dangerous variant and deciding what measures to take 

[Which Tyler]

If they tested positive after admission, then they're already outside the stats.

 

From the gov.uk link:

Quote

Patients admitted to hospital

Daily and cumulative numbers of COVID-19 patients admitted to hospital. Data are not updated every day by all 4 nations (England, Northern Ireland, Wales and Scotland). Figures are not comparable as Wales includes suspected COVID-19 patients while the other nations include only confirmed cases.

Unless government is lying of course, which would hardly be the first time (eg April-June 2020)

[DaveSumm]

43 minutes ago, Heartofice said:

What percentage are people admitted primarily FOR Covid?

Whatever that percentage ends up being, it doesn’t explain a huge increase in admissions. Unless it always goes up this much at winter, I guess ‘admissions above the average for this date 2018-17-16’ etc would be the relevant stat.

[Zorral]

They Say today that 1 in 150 people in NYC are either tested positive for covid or are sick with it.

 

[Maithanet]

Really good article from a computational biologist about the spread of Omicron.

A few key takeaways:

1.  If you are comparing a person with no vaccination or previous COVID infections, then Omicron is probably just as bad as OG Covid or Delta.

2.  However, we are almost two years into this, and so in the US ~ 85% of the adult population is either vaccinated or has already been infected.  That makes a huge difference in expected severity of a new wave.

3.  It's possible that the HUGE spikes we're seeing in Omicron is not because Omicron is so much more infectious, but because it has a much shorter incubation period (~24 hours) than either Delta or OG COVID.  Thus if Delta and Omicron both have an R0 of 1.5, then 1 Delta case could lead to ~3 cases in a week, but could lead to 17 cases of Omicron. 

4.  That would also mean that Omicron cases should theoretically fall very quickly too, which we're already seeing in South Africa. 

[Zorral]

Just heard the director of a group of city testing centers that, "Ever since Santa Con we've gotten more and more young people coming in for testing, and testing positive. We should call this the Santa virus."

[The Anti-Targ]

High rates of pre-existing immunity does make it hard to make an apples to apples comparison even vs delta, which hit before vaccination rates were high enough to make a substantial difference. If Omicron is almost as bad as delta (or even OG COVID) for immunologically naive people, and vaccination is pretty much ineffective at stopping spread, then this can still turn out to lead to bad outcomes in that sub-population, who won't be being shielded to any meaningful degree by the vaccinated / previously infected people around them.

I don't want to let omicron into the country yet, but it may yet prove to be the best policy to let omicron in to displace delta. So far we have delta under reasonable control but a blow out is always on the cards.

[Mlle. Zabzie]

In better news, Pfizer's oral medication was approved by the FDA today. (Paxlovid).  It will be available in the coming days, but supplies will be initially limited.  This is huge news because it is effective against Omicron (doesn't attack the spike, by rather through an enzyme block that prevents replication).  This is per WSJ, so not linking because paywall.

[Paxter]

Paxlovid?

The blessed child of me and Covid.

[williamjm]

50 minutes ago, Paxter said:

Paxlovid?

The blessed child of me and Covid.

One of the side effects is an abiding hatred of the Australian cricket team.

3 hours ago, Which Tyler said:

As for the imperial stat, I'd thought it was a nice round 80%* - which is absolutely brilliant news if verified.

 

* Either you or the BBC messed the %age around.

80% less likely / 20% as likely was the BBC figure - which is ridiculously good.

20% less likely is decent, but nowhere near enough to make up for the increased infection rate.

ETA, BBC cocked up: http://www.imperial.ac.uk/news/232882/some-reduction-hospitalisation-omicron-delta-england/

There is a study from South Africa that shows a 70-80% reduction in hospitalisation and one from Scotland showing only 1/3 of the hospitalisations they would expect from Omicron so far, although the article does point out the latter is based on a small sample size.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-59758784

[The Anti-Targ]

31 minutes ago, williamjm said:

One of the side effects is an abiding hatred of the Australian cricket team.

There is a study from South Africa that shows a 70-80% reduction in hospitalisation and one from Scotland showing only 1/3 of the hospitalisations they would expect from Omicron so far, although the article does point out the latter is based on a small sample size.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-59758784

 

Quote

The reduction in severity is thought to be a combination of the fundamental properties of the Omicron variant as well as high levels of immunity from vaccinations and previous infections.

It's not just omicron though. I don't believe they've really figured out how much it's inherent omicron characteristics contributing to lower hospitalisation and death and just the fact of there being so much more immunity in the population than 6 months ago. The vaccines might not have got us a proper herd immunity, but it's given us herd mitigation, which is almost as good.

[Zorral]

1 hour ago, Mlle. Zabzie said:

supplies will be initially limited

Severely limited, and we can't even look for any at all for months yet. Don't give up tests, boosts and vaxxes and masks and distancing yet, not for months and months.

[Clueless Northman]

4 hours ago, Maithanet said:

2.  However, we are almost two years into this, and so in the US ~ 85% of the adult population is either vaccinated or has already been infected.  That makes a huge difference in expected severity of a new wave.

Exactly. I've seen for the last couple of weeks plenty of people saying "SA numbers aren't relevant, they have 80% people who already got covid", except that the same goes for Europe and US - 80% of people had vaccines or covid. So we can reasonably expect the same level of hospitalizations and deaths reduction.

 

4 hours ago, Maithanet said:

3.  It's possible that the HUGE spikes we're seeing in Omicron is not because Omicron is so much more infectious, but because it has a much shorter incubation period (~24 hours) than either Delta or OG COVID.

Any source on that? I've read that it must have a shorter incubation period, and Delta already had a shorter one. Yet I read this morning some expert pushing a 3-days hypothesis for Omicron, which is interesting because I'm sure that's close to what Delta is supposed to have. Wuhan covid was 5-7 days and Delta is, iirc, 3-5.

Heck, if Omicron was 48 hours or less, then I actually might have gotten it over the weekend, because I had a way too risky diner at restaurant on Wednesday evening, felt one of my typical colds beginning on Friday evening, and the whole thing was over by Monday afternoon; it was my typical cold symptoms, but quite heavier and they were over faster than usual (faster could be due to 2 doses of Moderna and immune system reacting fast if it was covid, but heavier might simply be due to me not having had any cold for 2 years and half and immune system being weaker against random rhinovirus). Worth noting a rare case of (post)cold-tied conjunctivitis, once again nastier than usual but gone faster. Considering PCR testing capacities are overwhelmed and I didn't really need to go crowdsurfing this week, I only relied on an antigenic selt-test at peak symptoms Saturday evening, which was negative, so I still put odds on just a normal cold (the 2 people I was with haven't felt anything special, which is another reason to suspect it was just a less contagious common cold).

[Paxter]

21 minutes ago, Clueless Northman said:

Exactly. I've seen for the last couple of weeks plenty of people saying "SA numbers aren't relevant, they have 80% people who already got covid", except that the same goes for Europe and US - 80% of people had vaccines or covid. So we can reasonably expect the same level of hospitalizations and deaths reduction.

I’d like to believe the above bolder remark. But SA has a very young population compared to Europe, so I’m not getting my hopes up. 

@williamjm: What’s cricket? Never heard of it…