Covid 19 #43: Oh Omicron, oh Omicron, how numerous are thy spike proteins.

[rotting sea cow]

9 hours ago, Tywin et al. said:

Didn't you get the memo? The billionaire class hasn't grown their wealth by enough during the pandemic. Where's your sense of civic duty? Get out there and spend, Spend, SPEND, health be damned! 

go back to work, you peasants!

It was always about it, wasn't it? Health was only important as long as it was disrupting our neo-feudal economic system.

At least the masks are falling.

[rotting sea cow]

On the scientific side. Results that show that Omicron is intrinsically less pathogenic are holding.

 

The second good news is Omicron infections enhances your protection against Delta too, so that the concern about two co-circulating distinct variants might not occur and Omicron might displace Delta after all.

 

[Clueless Northman]

9 hours ago, Tywin et al. said:

It was cringey to hear Fauci say in an interview today that it's okay for positive but asymptomatic people to go out into the public after five days. 

It really depends. Key question is if Omicron can be actually genuinely bad for people with previous immunity (say at least 2 doses or infections). If for them it basically can't get worse than a mild flu, it makes no sense to keep such strict restrictions on the vaccinated ones - you're not legally obliged to quarantine for X days if you have the flu, despite the yearly toll, you do it as a social duty, and also because you won't be able to go out for a few days, with a real flu. If at least 95% of vaccinated people who get Omicron are asymptomatic or have cold-like symptoms for a couple of days, than we're close to the point where them quarantining exists merely to protect unvaxxed ones - a position that cannot be defended anymore, since we've had vaccines for one full year. It's not just people who want to be slaves to the economy, it's people who've fucking had enough of having to restrict their lifes for 2 years, specially when restrictions these last 6 months were entirely due to the anti-social behaviour of assholes; if Omicron turns out to be truly milder, as hoped for, then keeping quarantines, isolations and the like is basically allowing anti-vaxx to take the bulk of society as hostage.

The jury is still out there about how dangerous Omicron is for various groups, but that's a matter of weeks. If it turns out that S. African results were a fluke or an outlier, and it's overall as bas as any previous strain, then a significant level of restrictions will have to be kept.

[kairparavel]

https://www.reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/delta-ceo-asks-cdc-cut-quarantine-time-breakthrough-covid-cases-2021-12-21/

Quote

WASHINGTON, Dec 21 (Reuters) - Delta Air Lines Inc's (DAL.N) chief executive asked the head of the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention on Tuesday to shrink quarantine guidelines for fully vaccinated individuals who experience breakthrough COVID-19 infections, citing the impact on the carrier's workforce

 

Huh.

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

57 minutes ago, Clueless Northman said:

It really depends. Key question is if Omicron can be actually genuinely bad for people with previous immunity (say at least 2 doses or infections). If for them it basically can't get worse than a mild flu, it makes no sense to keep such strict restrictions on the vaccinated ones - you're not legally obliged to quarantine for X days if you have the flu, despite the yearly toll, you do it as a social duty, and also because you won't be able to go out for a few days, with a real flu. If at least 95% of vaccinated people who get Omicron are asymptomatic or have cold-like symptoms for a couple of days, than we're close to the point where them quarantining exists merely to protect unvaxxed ones - a position that cannot be defended anymore, since we've had vaccines for one full year. It's not just people who want to be slaves to the economy, it's people who've fucking had enough of having to restrict their lifes for 2 years, specially when restrictions these last 6 months were entirely due to the anti-social behaviour of assholes; if Omicron turns out to be truly milder, as hoped for, then keeping quarantines, isolations and the like is basically allowing anti-vaxx to take the bulk of society as hostage.

The jury is still out there about how dangerous Omicron is for various groups, but that's a matter of weeks. If it turns out that S. African results were a fluke or an outlier, and it's overall as bas as any previous strain, then a significant level of restrictions will have to be kept.

So you're for easing the restrictions before we actually know how badly this may hit us? That seems like a wildly reckless plan.

Also, it's worth noting that the easing of restrictions is for the unvaccinated too, who we know are less likely to wear masks in public and more likely to continue spreading the virus. 

[Clueless Northman]

3 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said:

So you're for easing the restrictions before we actually know how badly this may hit us? That seems like a wildly reckless plan.

Also, it's worth noting that the easing of restrictions is for the unvaccinated too, who we know are less likely to wear masks in public and more likely to continue spreading the virus. 

Not before we know how bad it is. As I said, 2 weeks from now, we'll have a clear picture of how bad Omicron actually is. Well, we should, were we really looking for that data, by relevant category (3-doses, 2-doses, unvaxxed, immuno-suppressed whatever doses they got).

As for unvaccinated, they obviously have to be subjected to harsher restrictions than any vaccinated person, as far as I'm concerned there's just no debate to be had on that point. I've always been for mandatory vaccines and as far as I'm concerned I would put them all under house arrest until twice vaccinated, and if this is legally not possible in some countries, then go for vaccine pass everywhere, not just restaurants but all public transports, places and all stores. They've been fucking us up since March 2020 never complying with any measure or restriction, so I'm done playing nice with them.

[rotting sea cow]

1 hour ago, Clueless Northman said:

It really depends. Key question is if Omicron can be actually genuinely bad for people with previous immunity (say at least 2 doses or infections). If for them it basically can't get worse than a mild flu, it makes no sense to keep such strict restrictions on the vaccinated ones - you're not legally obliged to quarantine for X days if you have the flu, despite the yearly toll, you do it as a social duty, and also because you won't be able to go out for a few days, with a real flu. If at least 95% of vaccinated people who get Omicron are asymptomatic or have cold-like symptoms for a couple of days, than we're close to the point where them quarantining exists merely to protect unvaxxed ones - a position that cannot be defended anymore, since we've had vaccines for one full year. It's not just people who want to be slaves to the economy, it's people who've fucking had enough of having to restrict their lifes for 2 years, specially when restrictions these last 6 months were entirely due to the anti-social behaviour of assholes; if Omicron turns out to be truly milder, as hoped for, then keeping quarantines, isolations and the like is basically allowing anti-vaxx to take the bulk of society as hostage.

The jury is still out there about how dangerous Omicron is for various groups, but that's a matter of weeks. If it turns out that S. African results were a fluke or an outlier, and it's overall as bas as any previous strain, then a significant level of restrictions will have to be kept.

Look. I know you are trying to give health authorities the benefit of doubt regarding this guidance. It has been hard, even in Europe, to keep employers from requesting their infected workers to come to work, citing they aren't actually sick, which remains to be true for many infected.  I'd guess that it's even worse in US. With this guidance, you will have actual infected individuals at work places. 

Yes, in one hand is a way towards normalcy. On another, its only purpose is to not do further damage to the economy, so countries will not enter in an unplanned "soft lockdown"

 

[rotting sea cow]

On other news. Spain registered almost 215 thousand infections. I'd guess there is a backlog from Christmas but... .

[Which Tyler]

1 minute ago, rotting sea cow said:

On other news. Spain registered almost 215 thousand infections. I'd guess there is a backlog from Christmas but... .

In related news - we won't be getting over to Alicante to scatter MiL's ashes now (due to be flying out on Sunday).
One of the family over their came down with something on Boxing day, after a week of daily LFT negatives.

Rapid PCR + that evening.

Whole bunch (6 out of 8) of LFT + Yesterday.

 

If they remain asymptomatic, they'll be scattering anyway (isolating as a unit); we'll only be able to join by facetime.

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

1 hour ago, Clueless Northman said:

Not before we know how bad it is. As I said, 2 weeks from now, we'll have a clear picture of how bad Omicron actually is. Well, we should, were we really looking for that data, by relevant category (3-doses, 2-doses, unvaxxed, immuno-suppressed whatever doses they got).

As for unvaccinated, they obviously have to be subjected to harsher restrictions than any vaccinated person, as far as I'm concerned there's just no debate to be had on that point. I've always been for mandatory vaccines and as far as I'm concerned I would put them all under house arrest until twice vaccinated, and if this is legally not possible in some countries, then go for vaccine pass everywhere, not just restaurants but all public transports, places and all stores. They've been fucking us up since March 2020 never complying with any measure or restriction, so I'm done playing nice with them.

But this is all useless because as I just said, a). they’re easing restrictions during an outbreak right now before they know what we’ll happen and b). they’re doing it for the unvaccinated as well. And worse, it’s all on the honor system. Face it, we’re doing what the economic heavy hitters want, not what’s actually good health policy. They want their labor force going back to work as fast as possible, be it the airlines or sports leagues, and that’s what’s driving everything. It’s the same reason why politicians are saying they won’t be for more lockdowns despite them probably being necessary in some instances.

And yes, vaccines should be mandated, but that’s not going to happen in a lot of places.

[Heartofice]

Omicron has smashed the vitriol over vaccine mandates and locking the unvaccinated up out of the water. Those were always bad ideas that never made sense and they make even less sense now. We just need to get past those ideas and realise that vaccines should be promoted as a way of protecting yourself from serious disease 

[Fury Resurrected]

5 minutes ago, Heartofice said:We just need to get past those ideas and realise that vaccines should be promoted as a way of protecting yourself from serious disease 

They are. It hasn’t been enough.

[Mlle. Zabzie]

So I've been thinking a little bit more about the new CDC guidelines.

• FIRST, the full guidance is incredibly confusing.  My sister got her friend who is a real-live epidemiologist to explain them to her and the explanation was passed on to me, and it is still confusing, though I sort of get it now (different rules for different statuses, involves masking for different number of days, etc.)
• SECOND, the shortening of the quarantine for asymptomatic people is, in fact, largely performative.  That is, people who are asymptomatic are, by definition, without symptoms, and unless they happen to have access to a test and do test regularly, they have NO IDEA that they have COVID, and so are presumably running around doing their daily thing.  Thus, the guidance really just applies to industries with real testing protocols and that do require in-person staff....  For the rest of us that have no testing requirements in our lives, the longer isolation, etc. periods almost DISCOURAGE testing because of life disruptions.  So I definitely see the angle of "it's just to get the peons back to work", but I also think there is a bit of a balance between encouraging as much testing as possible and getting people to actually comply.
• THIRD, this reemphasizes the importance of masking and vaccination.  Again, there are a LOT of asymptomatic people out there.  My sister has had asymptomatic COVID twice now - she tests often because she helps out a friend with stage 4 cancer a lot (the friend's husband is a NYC firefighter - he got his engine to vaccinate solely because they love the friend; he's petrified of bringing it home, and anyhow, my sister has to help out a lot because he ends up having to isolate a lot).  She is vaccinated and boosted.  The only reason she knows is because she is testing so often.  Most people wouldn't even know.
• FOURTH, policy makers have not communicated what the end game here is.  In March of 2020, it was 14 days to stop the spread.  And then 2 months to flatten the curve.  And then, "just hold on for vaccines".  And now it's "?".  That's not a great way to get people behind you to comply.  Again, the message is probably frankly similar to April of 2020, but I think the political and social will to actually isolate and lock down is frankly non-existent.  Isolation is incredibly mentally and physically draining and hard.  And we need to acknowledge that harm as well.  And so even in the midst of a huge outbreak that is going to be incredibly tragic, there does need to be clearer messaging of what we are trying to accomplish and why, and why that goal is worth the harm caused by restrictions.  That is wholly missing as far as I can tell.      

 

[Jaxom 1974]

We've got a sous chef down now, as he's showing symptoms, and the reaction to some of my co-workers, hoping for the best that it's Omicron, and not Delta, as Omicron, "is more like a bad cold"....is just a horrifying reaction.  I don't know if the chef is vaxxed.  Maybe he is.  If he is, and it's Omicron, it likely will be more like a bad cold...but the utter lack of ramifications from people, that maybe it isn't as bad as it could be just absolutely ignores the idea that if more co-workers catch it at the same time, then "not so bad" isn't all that great when you're down ten people...

That's the disconnect I'm having issues with people seeing.

[Zorral]

NYC Pediatric hospital admissions for covid continue to spike.

[rotting sea cow]

2 hours ago, Zorral said:

NYC Pediatric hospital admissions for covid continue to spike.

They might be incidental cases according to some article. That is children being at the hospital for other reasons and then test positive. Still is something to keep an eye on. Hopefully, clear stats come soon.

Meanwhile, several European countries are hitting new records regarding infections, 180k in France, 215k in Spain, 115k in UK, etc. Reportedly, testing capability is hitting its limits with Ireland reporting an insanely 50% positivity rate

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-59806119

I'm having the strong feeling that by the end of February we will largely done with this shit, but first we need to endure some few hard weeks/months and the circus that the response has become.

There is a storm raging in twitter because the new CDC guidelines, with few European countries considering to implement something similar.

 

 

[Impmk2]

Interesting case study from a very early omicron (late November) cluster in Nebraska:

https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/70/wr/mm705152e3.htm?s_cid=mm705152e3_w

Quote

All six household members (median age = 18.5 years; range = 11–48 years) experienced symptom onset during November 24–26; median interval between earliest possible exposure to the index patient and symptom onset was 73 hours (range = 33–75 hours).

That's consistant with previous reports from the initial Denmark cluster of a much shorter incubation period. That's down from ~4 days with Delta. As I've said previously it helps explain the dramatic spike in cases currently seen around the world.

Also interesting that loss of taste doesn't appear to be as common a symptom of Omicron infection (none reported in the above). As the mechanism behind loss of taste is thought to be basically the stripping of the epithelium from around taste receptors it's possibly another data point towards decreased tissue damage / severity.

[Fury Resurrected]

What we really need is a huge supply of free rapid home tests available to everyone. I test weekly because I work closely with the public in physical contact, but that’s not accessible to everyone (and it’s very expensive for me). If everyone were doing regular testing and testing for any respiratory symptoms, we’d be in a lot better place

[Zorral]

What A Mild Case of Covid Feels Like For Somebody Vxed and Boosted -- Spoiler: It Feels Awful.

https://gothamist.com/news/what-a-mild-to-moderate-omicron-case-feels-like

Alas that it appears we won't be getting any free at home tests until after the end of January, at the very earliest -- if at all.

Also remarking within 3 seconds of the link to the mild-to-moderate covid piece there's not point to it means it wasn't read. OTOH, when one comments every damned time about everything that he doesn't see the point of something, we know there's no reading comprehension there anyway, so, so what.  Anyway, it's a long article, and I know how long it takes because I read it and I'm a very fast reader -- though of course I did slow through important parts.

The pediatric article I linked to is only about the pediatric patients presenting with covid.  The title/caption of it even says that.

[Heartofice]

4 minutes ago, Zorral said:

What A Mild Case of Covid Feels Like For Somebody Vxed and Boosted -- Spoiler: It Feels Awful.

https://gothamist.com/news/what-a-mild-to-moderate-omicron-case-feels-like

That’s not the case for everyone. I’m not sure what the point of that article is.