Covid 19 #43: Oh Omicron, oh Omicron, how numerous are thy spike proteins.

[Fury Resurrected]

On 12/17/2021 at 8:40 AM, Spockydog said:

 

 

As someone who knows some antivaxxers, a lot of them believe those things too

[The Anti-Targ]

7 hours ago, RhaenysBee said:

We are steadily on the decline but it’s only a matter of weeks before omicron spikes it up.
It’ll be interesting to see what the stats show. If omicron is indeed milder than delta, we won’t necessarily see significantly more cases, only a higher percentage of positive tests within all tests, as people still don’t get tested. Hospitalizations and deaths  might remain roughly the same. If omicron isn’t a wee bit milder than delta (and frankly, this is a fair enough possibility), we’ll probably break world record of deaths per population and see the mortality rate soar, because there’ll be more fatal cases while people still don’t get tested.
We’ll never know, but I wouldn’t be surprised if at least half of real covid cases weren’t ever detected. 

 

You can get a not bad estimate of the true number of infections in a country based on estimations of the infection fatality rate. It seems reasonable from the publications I've seen to guess that the IFR for COVID-19 is about 0.5%, so if we accept this to be the real death rate and that a country has accurately recorded COVID-19 deaths (deaths where COVID-19 is the primary cause of death), then you can get an idea of the total number of people in the country who have been infected with COVID-19. So the UK has probably had at least 29 million people infected (official stats says 11 million), the USA at least 130 million infections (official stats says 51 million), France 24 million, Germany 20 million and so on. This way of estimation breaks down for countries that have kept COVID-19 largely under control throughout the pandemic up to now, for instance if you apply this calculation to New Zealand then our total number of infections works out to be 9,800 when our official case number is over 12,000. When you apply the calculation to countries with a very low tests/million you will usually get a much higher IFR compared to the official number of cases. Bangladesh has a testing rate of just 67,000 per million (most of Europe has over 1 million tests per million) and it's calculated total number of infections is almost 5x the official case number.

[Zorral]

Within three days so many of our friends who lost their livelihoods when Broadway and theater shut down in 2020, who got them back a few weeks ago -- from Jagged Little Pill to the annual Radio City Music Hall Christmas extravaganza, have lost their jobs again.

So much has changed here within ONLY THREE DAYS.  Including I just received phone call from the across the hall neighbor; she's got it.  Yes, she's vaxxed and boosted too.  She thinks it was because she was hanging out with her two best friends, who also are vaxxed and boosted.

This stuff is incredibly fast -- I think even more so than the close to the end wave of the Great Influenza of 1918.

It really does feel unavoidable that we'll get it too.

The good news is that Zoom stock zoomed up again. 

[Fragile Bird]

Saturday Night Live announced today there would be no audience for tonight’s show, because they wanted to be cautious.

[DireWolfSpirit]

1 hour ago, Zorral said:

Within three days so many of our friends who lost their livelihoods when Broadway and theater shut down in 2020, who got them back a few weeks ago -- from Jagged Little Pill to the annual Radio City Music Hall Christmas extravaganza, have lost their jobs again.

So much has changed here within ONLY THREE DAYS.  Including I just received phone call from the across the hall neighbor; she's got it.  Yes, she's vaxxed and boosted too.  She thinks it was because she was hanging out with her two best friends, who also are vaxxed and boosted.

This stuff is incredibly fast -- I think even more so than the close to the end wave of the Great Influenza of 1918.

It really does feel unavoidable that we'll get it too.

The good news is that Zoom stock zoomed up again. 

She was vaxxed and boosted too and she sill got it?

I'm started to feel a sense of doom.

[Zorral]

9 minutes ago, DireWolfSpirit said:

She was vaxxed and boosted too and she sill got it?

I'm started to feel a sense of doom.

Yes, so were her friends.  They spent a couple of hours, in two days, together, inside, in a restaurant, w/o masks.  I am so glad I have refused to go out of our apartment, inside our building, even to the mailbox and the garbage, and doing laundry, without masking.  Other tenants look at me like I'm nutz, but there you are.  But it probably isn't enough.  Our neighbor has been very careful too, but she was masking a lot less and going to many restaurants with her friends in just these last 2  3 weeks.  Boom.  Omicron.  It is extraordinarily rapid contagion. which I'm hearing from every direction.  Not even close to hearing before here, in our neighborhoods, this many people with covid, suddenly, in the last three days.

[rotting sea cow]

6 hours ago, DireWolfSpirit said:

She was vaxxed and boosted too and she sill got it?

I'm started to feel a sense of doom.

What I've been hearing people saying is that against Omicron, a third dose of an mRNA vaccine puts you in the same ballpark that a single dose against Delta. And of course, if that booster was more than 3 months ago, your protection is likely decreased. I think the best we can expect is not to go to the hospitals.

Yes, it really seems that London and NYC are being hammered by Omicron. But Brussels is also showing signs of a large outbreak. I contact there, who got COVID in early 2020,  and vaccinated sometime last Summer is with COVID now and there are a lot of "me too" in her facebook post.

I let myself to get grabbed last Friday by some colleagues and got boosted. Had a shitty night and a lazy Saturday, but now only the arm hurts. 

 

[rotting sea cow]

On the science side these are interesting findings. It turns out that Omicron shows decreased cleavage in comparison with previous variants (why is then so transmissible?) and is less prone to create syncitia (cell fusion) than Delta or the original strain. That variants of concern were more efficient forming syncitia was one of the reasons for their increased pathogenesis. So, overall, this may another indication that Omicron is less severe. Of course, I wonder if it can re-acquire those mutations which will be very bad.

Regarding S. Africa. I don't know how to interpret their situation. It's clear that they aren't heading to a catastrophe so far, we should be hearing about it and hospitalizations seems to be decreasing. I wouldn't read too much on the "falling cases' They may well be hitting testing capacity (we are all heading in the same direction) and travel bans aren't helping to replenish reactants, etc necessary for testing.  Keep an optimistic and watchful eye.

 

 

 

 

[BigFatCoward]

I'm so sick to fucking death of the 'I'm exempt' crowd at work. You can still choose to wear a mask you selfish, ignorant cunts.

And you aren't 'exempt' from giving it to me, so fuck off  

[Luzifer's right hand]

2 hours ago, BigFatCoward said:

I'm so sick to fucking death of the 'I'm exempt' crowd at work. You can still choose to wear a mask you selfish, ignorant cunts.

And you aren't 'exempt' from giving it to me, so fuck off  

Well so anti-vaxxers are not pro mask and social distancing in the UK?

*Surprised Pikachu*

 

 

 

[Consigliere]

3 hours ago, rotting sea cow said:

Regarding S. Africa. I don't know how to interpret their situation. It's clear that they aren't heading to a catastrophe so far, we should be hearing about it and hospitalizations seems to be decreasing. I wouldn't read too much on the "falling cases' They may well be hitting testing capacity (we are all heading in the same direction) and travel bans aren't helping to replenish reactants, etc necessary for testing.  Keep an optimistic and watchful eye.

It would appear that the recent decrease in cases in SA is primarily due to cases decreasing in Gauteng province which was the epicenter of the outbreak. Waste water anaysis also showing that infections have decreased in Pretoria and surrounding municipal areas. However, cases are increasing in the coastal provinces. There are currently loads of holiday makers from the inland provinces in the coastal provinces, beaches are packed, social distancing is non existent and nary a mask in sight. I fully expect a spike in cases in the Western Cape, Eastern Cape and KwaZulu-Natal and another spike in the inland provinces come January once all those holiday makers return.

[Week]

1 hour ago, Luzifer's right hand said:

Well so anti-vaxxers are not pro mask and social distancing in the UK?

*Surprised Pikachu*

Are they at least trying to get in shape??? 

[rotting sea cow]

3 hours ago, Consigliere said:

It would appear that the recent decrease in cases in SA is primarily due to cases decreasing in Gauteng province which was the epicenter of the outbreak. Waste water anaysis also showing that infections have decreased in Pretoria and surrounding municipal areas. However, cases are increasing in the coastal provinces. There are currently loads of holiday makers from the inland provinces in the coastal provinces, beaches are packed, social distancing is non existent and nary a mask in sight. I fully expect a spike in cases in the Western Cape, Eastern Cape and KwaZulu-Natal and another spike in the inland provinces come January once all those holiday makers return.

Thanks a lot for your views! So, it really seems that GP already passed the wave. Interesting, as you say, I have the impression that minimal to none measures were implement, which would indicate that Omicron spread like wildfire and the reported cases were a fraction of the true infection rates. Hopefully things do not get worse in the other provinces.

[Iskaral Pust]

Past waves have lasted around two months, although the UK’s current experience since July has been impressively persistent (and self-inflicted).  The transmissibility of Omicron makes me think this wave could be a relatively short one too.  It’s too early to say, but hopefully something this transmissible will burn out quickly. 

[Varysblackfyre321]

7 hours ago, Luzifer's right hand said:

Well so anti-vaxxers are not pro mask and social distancing in the UK?

*Surprised Pikachu*

Getting the vaccine is pointless it would only protect you really.

Also wearing masks is pointless because it would only protect others.

whatever the case you should not treat covid seriously…unless you’re using it to attack foreigners.

[Zorral]

I confess I cling to my masks first in interest in protecting myself, which in turn then, protects others if I am protected.  But I have little faith in any protections right now as so few are observing any of the protections for themselves or others, and there is SO MUCH infection -- doubling every day, right here in River City, where we were quite protected -- until November.  I am so depressed, tired and apprehensive. The door of the across-the-hall neighbor with covid is less than 5 feet from our door -- a very old building, with very narrow hallways.

https://www.nydailynews.com/new-york/ny-snl-new-york-state-covid-20211218-h6fgpnls7jhtjaawnotoud4prm-story.html

"NY statewide COVID positive tests hit record high for second straight day"

Quote

Gov. Hochul, in numbers released Saturday, reported nearly 22,000 New Yorkers tested positive statewide on Friday to eclipse the mark of 21,027 set just one day earlier. The 7.53% rate of positive tests reflected the latest pandemic surge, compared with 4.3% just one week earlier, and New York City’s 11,589 new cases comprised more than half of the new cases

.

https://www.nydailynews.com/news/politics/new-york-elections-government/ny-bill-de-blasio-coronavirus-omicron-new-york-city-20211219-nnocsqic4jaydlv4w3qi7f335u-story.html

"NYC opening new COVID testing sites amid omicron fears: de Blasio"

Quote

 

....“All of these efforts will help to reduce the lines we’re seeing at testing sites,” de Blasio said, calling for a “war footing” against the virus.

Long lines have been seen outside testing sites as COVID cases spike in the Big Apple and beyond. At least half a dozen Broadway shows have been canceled in recent days, and some eateries have shuttered their doors in scenes reminiscent of the depths of the pandemic in winter 2020.

But the mayor on Sunday shied away from drastic steps like lockdown measures and school closures, insisting conditions won’t deteriorate to the levels seen last year. ....

 

 

[The Anti-Targ]

3 hours ago, Zorral said:

I confess I cling to my masks first in interest in protecting myself, which in turn then, protects others if I am protected.  But I have little faith in any protections right now as so few are observing any of the protections for themselves or others, and there is SO MUCH infection -- doubling every day, right here in River City, where we were quite protected -- until November.  I am so depressed, tired and apprehensive. The door of the across-the-hall neighbor with covid is less than 5 feet from our door -- a very old building, with very narrow hallways.

https://www.nydailynews.com/new-york/ny-snl-new-york-state-covid-20211218-h6fgpnls7jhtjaawnotoud4prm-story.html

"NY statewide COVID positive tests hit record high for second straight day"

.

https://www.nydailynews.com/news/politics/new-york-elections-government/ny-bill-de-blasio-coronavirus-omicron-new-york-city-20211219-nnocsqic4jaydlv4w3qi7f335u-story.html

"NYC opening new COVID testing sites amid omicron fears: de Blasio"

 

The problem is masks protect others more than they protect the wearer, so if you are wearing a mask in a crowd of mostly unmasked people you are not as well protected from infection than you would hope. If you want to protect yourself, then face visor + N95 mask is the way to go.

[Zorral]

11 minutes ago, The Anti-Targ said:

The problem is masks protect others more than they protect the wearer, so if you are wearing a mask in a crowd of mostly unmasked people you are not as well protected from infection than you would hope. If you want to protect yourself, then face visor + N95 mask is the way to go.

Ya, I understand that, which is why I have avoided crowds all along in the pandemic.  I have always disliked crowds, however, and always try to avoid them and am very uncomfortable if I am in one -- which, considering what work is, was frequent.  But I never enjoyed it, even if everyone around was lost in the massive crowd ecstasy from the music / whatever.  I do not have the meld/merge dna.

 

[The Anti-Targ]

Omicron has not breached our border yet, and we want to keep it that way as long as possible I think. But it is throwing itself at us far more than previous variants with multiple cases being picked up in border quarantine on a daily basis. Pre-omicron we would have 0-3 cases picked up in quarantine each day. With Omicron it has been 3-9 cases per day. People have to be vaccinated to be allowed into the country, so this is Omicron being picked up in a 100% vaccinated (apart from under 12s) population.

Hospitalisation-wise we are at a fairly consistent 25% of admissions being fully vaccinated people.

[The Anti-Targ]

I'm so sorry. I have been lying to you all this whole time. Wendy speaks the truth and we can no longer hide it from the world.

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/republican-arizona-senator-wendy-rogers-trolled-after-saying-kiwis-are-emailing-her-about-jacinda-ardern-and-covid-camps/ZAWEIFMIAME5LDZUZ52FT73SUY/

Quote

Republican Arizona Senator Wendy Rogers saying Kiwis are emailing her about Jacinda Ardern and Covid camps

a Republican senator in Arizona, US, who says she's been receiving "a lot of emails" from New Zealanders complaining about Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern and "Covid camps" in New Zealand.

Wendy Rogers, a conservative senator from Arizona, says the emails are coming from Kiwis "who are glad I am speaking out against their commie prime minister". The politician went on to imply New Zealand has "Covid camps" and called Ardern a "nut job".

I'm not even in New Zealand, since as the article confirms people have been outing the country as having no internet access and email is banned, so I can't keep up the pretence any longer. My decades long jig is up.