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What if Arya had given Tywin's name to Jaqen H'gar?


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What would have been the consequences if Arya had realized earlier the opportunity she had with Jaqen H'ghar owing his debt to her and Tywin being present in Harrenhal and as such had asked Jaqen to assassinate Tywin, as one the three lives she owed death after saving Jaqen and the two other prisonners in the cage in ACOK ? 

Would Jaqen have still honored Arya's request ? If he accepted and really killed Tywin what would have been the immediate consequences for everyone in Westeros and over the global plot after ? 

What would have been the long-term consequences of Tywin's death at Jaqen's hands all across Westeros and Essos ? What events would have happened or wouldn't have happened ? 

 

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Well Tywin Lannister aligned himself with the Bank of Braavos. We do not know if the Bank of Braavos supports the Sea Lord of Braavos, but the Bank is certainly against dragons.

The Sea Lord uses Serio Forrel we know for his ability to spot things for as they truly are or aren't. Meaning he can likely spot a faceless man. Meaning the Faceless men are not on the side of the Sea Lord of Braavos.

We also have clues to suggest Illyrio had the Sea Lord who signed the marriage pact between Viserys and Arriane, killed. Meaning Illyrio and Varys are against the Sea Lord. 

With Braavos typically being against dragons, I would venture that the Bank and the Sea Lord usually work together against Targaryen's and dragons. Something Lord Tywin used to his advantage possibly during Roberts Rebellion, and something likely Cersei will do in support against F/Aegon. Who wants the crown, and wont want to let Cersei be the prime ruler as Cersei would likely have it. 

Yet we see Faceless men serving Tywin, when they should be naturally against Tywin as he supports the Bank and the Sea Lord of Braavos.

Unless serving them was just a chance to get close to Arya. With the faceless men, leaving Tywins forces right after. With Jaquin eventually going to Old Town. (Preston Jacobs does a pretty good run through on Arya's time with them and their watching her and steering her to Braavos).

Could she have ordered Tywin's death. I think quite likely.

Will they have done it when she wanted, no. They would have still done it though as its part of their plan.

Just my thoughts from what I can gather of that tangled web which ties in the Martells against Illyrio and the slave trade.

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38 minutes ago, Terrorthatflapsinthenight9 said:

What would have been the consequences if Arya had realized earlier the opportunity she had with Jaqen H'ghar owing his debt to her and Tywin being present in Harrenhal and as such had asked Jaqen to assassinate Tywin, as one the three lives she owed death after saving Jaqen and the two other prisonners in the cage in ACOK ? 

Would Jaqen have still honored Arya's request ? If he accepted and really killed Tywin what would have been the immediate consequences for everyone in Westeros and over the global plot after ? 

What would have been the long-term consequences of Tywin's death at Jaqen's hands all across Westeros and Essos ? What events would have happened or wouldn't have happened ? 

 

Considering the Faceless men maybe just another arm of the Three Eyed Crow. With Arya's and Bran's training having parallels like the candles and weirwood paste. The Three Eyed Crow is sided with Bran Stark. Who's family was just betrayed and murdered by the Lannisters. Possibly for the second time (If my theory on Tywin starting Roberts Rebellion is right).


So yes, the Faceless Men will be destroying House Lannister and all its members. Im almost certain about it. 

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4 hours ago, Terrorthatflapsinthenight9 said:

What would have been the consequences if Arya had realized earlier the opportunity she had with Jaqen H'ghar owing his debt to her and Tywin being present in Harrenhal and as such had asked Jaqen to assassinate Tywin, as one the three lives she owed death after saving Jaqen and the two other prisonners in the cage in ACOK ? 

Would Jaqen have still honored Arya's request ? If he accepted and really killed Tywin what would have been the immediate consequences for everyone in Westeros and over the global plot after ? 

What would have been the long-term consequences of Tywin's death at Jaqen's hands all across Westeros and Essos ? What events would have happened or wouldn't have happened ? 

 

No red wedding.  Stannis would win King's Landing.  Robb gets to go home to remove the IB from the north.  Cersei, Jaime, Joffrey, Tommen, and Myrcella would decorate the pikes at the gates.  Ed and Ros will happily carry on with married life.  No effect on Daenerys in Essos.  Roose would stay loyal.  Jon will have no reason to commit treason.  Balon will lose again.  Rhllor will be the official god of the south. 

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Jaqen would have killed Tywin, of that I am convinced.  This would eliminate the Lannisters' best leader.  Robb would have reached a deal and gone home.  Stannis probably would become king.  And Arya would get betrothed to Elmar.

In other words, a very different story, and probably a less interesting one.  Sorry, guys, but Tywin can't die quite that early. 

 

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Stannis would have wiped away the first family of the clan Lannister and appropriated some of their assets to his supporters.  Tyrion, Jaime, and Cersei do not have the discipline to win the war.  Though Kevan will come to the rescue and that might be enough. 

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On 12/14/2021 at 11:21 PM, Roswell said:

Stannis would have wiped away the first family of the clan Lannister and appropriated some of their assets to his supporters.  Tyrion, Jaime, and Cersei do not have the discipline to win the war.  Though Kevan will come to the rescue and that might be enough. 

Kevan was a definite threat, which is why Varys wiped him out. Kevan, Tygett, and Tywin were all regarded as pretty bad ass. Jamie's fighting style is compared to Tygett. Kevan was bringing peace till Vary's murdered him. Tywin, I have a whole thread and theory and how smart and crafty that guy was. None of the children really seem a match for them. Tyrion has been played by Cat, Baelish, Varys, Cersei, and Illyrio. Im not honestly that impressed by Tyrion and as a character, he's not nearly as pleasant as Peter Dinklage's portrayal.  When he reaches Essos, he's just plain dark.

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  • 10 months later...

Tywin in this case would die right before the Lannisters start to march on the West.

Kevan would probably take control over the Lannister army and would be kind of lost in what to do and still would end up marching West since it was Tywin's original idea and Kevan just follows him.

Tywin's death would be hold in secret, for as much time as possible, but word would get out. Blackwater would still happen the way it did, but the aftermatch would be completly diferent.

Arya would be reunited with Cat and Robb.

Tyrion and Cersei would be squabling with each other over who would be lord of CR, and this is just the start of that mess. Jaime is not there yet to stop them from killing each other, Tywin is dead and neither of them will listen to Kevan.

There would be no one to keep Mace in check. Cersei would clash with him a lot earlier.

The Purple Wedding would still happen, but not the RW, without Tywin as backing I doubt the Freys pull it out, but they would switch sides.

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1 hour ago, The Sleeper said:

Tywin is attended and guarded 24/7. He is a much harder target than Chiswyck or Weese to assassinate. You could argue that Jaqen could have gotten him then there, or that he would eventually get him in a year. From that point on lies fan-fiction. 

Yea, but Jaqen is a pro and can change his face. For example he could simply take the form of the person delivering Twyin his wine and slip something into it. 

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5 minutes ago, sifth said:

Yea, but Jaqen is a pro and can change his face. For example he could simply take the form of the person delivering Twyin his wine and slip something into it. 

That’s the point. This is speculation. You don't when and if such an opportunity would arise. 

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3 hours ago, The Sleeper said:

That’s the point. This is speculation. You don't when and if such an opportunity would arise. 

Faceless Men certainely have more than enough patience and skills to seize that opportunity, or even to create it. 

And when they strike, they're the only ones to know what happened.  

Even the Targaryens with their dragons knew that there would be no guard or protection sure enough to protect them from the FM, and it's why they never antagonised Braavos too much.

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If the battle of the Black Water still happens and the Lannisters win, it's hard to say who gets Casterly Rock, without Tywin around. Kevan would seem like the obvious choice though. Cersei is queen regent, so she has more power, than Lady of the Rock. Tyrion would still be injured, so I'm not sure he'd be able to make his claim.

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13 minutes ago, sifth said:

If the battle of the Black Water still happens and the Lannisters win, it's hard to say who gets Casterly Rock, without Tywin around. Kevan would seem like the obvious choice though. Cersei is queen regent, so she has more power, than Lady of the Rock. Tyrion would still be injured, so I'm not sure he'd be able to make his claim.

I didn't even remember that Tyrion was knocked out for weeks after Blackwater.

I don't see Kevan disputing with his nephew and niece. He could argue for Tyrion as is Law, but he himself would not make a play.

 

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12 hours ago, Terrorthatflapsinthenight9 said:

Faceless Men certainely have more than enough patience and skills to seize that opportunity, or even to create it. 

And when they strike, they're the only ones to know what happened.  

Even the Targaryens with their dragons knew that there would be no guard or protection sure enough to protect them from the FM, and it's why they never antagonised Braavos too much.

I don't doubt that he could get Tywin, but you can't say that he could get him then and there, particularly with the restrictions of not killing anyone other than Tywin and obviously escaping undetected. 

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  • 1 month later...
On 10/20/2022 at 10:18 PM, Arthur Peres said:

Who do you guys think would inherit Casterly Rock? Cersei or Tyrion?

Tyrion

By blackwater battle stage he has already taken control of kl from.cersi thanks to his political cunning , position as hand  + his vale savages and bronns mercs! 

Kevan is a solid methodical guy . He  will lead the combined tyrell and lannister force to push stannis out of kl and will send ravens to kl to let everyone know tywin is dead.

Tyrion may take more caution on hearing this or the assasin may not even try. Either way even if it goes ahead kevan being traditional will likely hand casterly rock to tyrion. Tyrion and kevan will sideline cersei and take control of the war effort. Many of the positions the tyrells asked of kevan after tywins  original timeline death  would probably be granted there and then after the battle. The kevan idea of a bank of casterly rock would probably be granted wings too.

 

Cersis only counter play would be having joff name someone else as hand to nulify some of tyrions power but that wouldnt affect his claim.

Cersei could push  for kevan who'd likely refuse.

Edited by astarkchoice
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