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The Good King Aerys, second of his name. Vs Tywin Lannister, the Golden Hand. (Part 1)


AlaskanSandman
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Id like to explore further the idea of Tywin Lannister as the mastermind behind Robert Rebellion, and sole benefactor from it.

We will first explore Tywin's actions through out the War of the 5 Kings. We will compare it to his possible actions and what we are told about Roberts Rebellion, and the events leading up to it like Harrenhal, and the many slights against Lord Tywin Lannister, hand of the King to Aerys II.

Now, in AGOT Cat Stark kidnaps Tyrion Lannister before Robert has even died or been injured. Drawing out Tywin, who begins to burn the Riverlands in response. Ultimately leading to open war. (some events have been manipulated by Little Finger framing the Lannisters). How does Tywin win the war and settle the matter though? Specially after Jamie has been take from him.

 

He implants a spy in the form of Jeyne Westerling and her parents. Who are slipping her something to prevent her from getting pregnant. Jeyne is used to lure Rob into breaking his pack with House Frey. Losing him those men in battle, and eventually being murdered by House Frey for the insult. House Frey being backed by Tywin Lannister.

 

Now, it appears that Jamie and the rest of the Lannisters had no knowledge of Tywins plot.

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A Storm of Swords - Jaime VII

Brienne's eyes were listless. "That was only half my vow. I told Lady Catelyn I would bring her back her daughters. Or Sansa, at the least. And now . . ."
She never met Robb Stark, yet her grief for him runs deeper than mine for Joff. Or perhaps it was Lady Catelyn she mourned. They had been at Brindlewood when they had that news, from a red-faced tub of a knight named Ser Bertram Beesbury, whose arms were three beehives on a field striped black and yellow. A troop of Lord Piper's men had passed through Brindlewood only yesterday, Beesbury told them, rushing to King's Landing beneath a peace banner of their own. "With the Young Wolf dead Piper saw no point to fighting on. His son is captive at the Twins." Brienne gaped like a cow about to choke on her cud, so it fell to Jaime to draw out the tale of the Red Wedding.

 

 
 

 

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A Feast for Crows - Brienne VIII

"What does she want of me?"
"She wants her son alive, or the men who killed him dead," said the big man. "She wants to feed the crows, like they did at the Red Wedding. Freys and Boltons, aye. We'll give her those, as many as she likes. All she asks from you is Jaime Lannister."
Jaime. The name was a knife, twisting in her belly. "Lady Catelyn, I . . . you do not understand, Jaime . . . he saved me from being raped when the Bloody Mummers took us, and later he came back for me, he leapt into the bear pit empty-handed . . . I swear to you, he is not the man he was. He sent me after Sansa to keep her safe, he could not have had a part in the Red Wedding."

 

 

 

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A Feast for Crows - Cersei IV

"My lords may not know," said Qyburn, "but in the winesinks and pot shops of this city, there are those who suggest that the crown might have been somehow complicit in Lord Walder's crime."
The other councillors stared at him uncertainly. "Do you refer to the Red Wedding?" asked Aurane Waters. "Crime?" said Ser Harys. Pycelle cleared his throat noisily. Lord Gyles coughed.
"These sparrows are especially outspoken," warned Qyburn. "The Red Wedding was an affront to all the laws of gods and men, they say, and those who had a hand in it are damned."

 

 
 
Yet rumors abound shortly after that the Lannisters were involved. 
 

 

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A Feast for Crows - Cersei IV

"No," said Ser Harys. "No," said Lord Merryweather. "No one could think so," said Pycelle. Lord Gyles coughed.
"A little spittle on Lord Walder's tomb is not like to disturb the grave worms," Qyburn agreed, "but it would also be useful if someone were to be punished for the Red Wedding. A few Frey heads would do much to mollify the north."
"Lord Walder will never sacrifice his own," said Pycelle.
"No," mused Cersei, "but his heirs may be less squeamish. Lord Walder will soon do us the courtesy of dying, we can hope. What better way for the new Lord of the Crossing to rid himself of inconvenient half brothers, disagreeable cousins, and scheming sisters than by naming them the culprits?"

 

 
Cersei has an explanation for it though and way around it.
 

 

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A Dance with Dragons - Davos III

"Stannis may have enemies in this hall. I do not."
"Not even the men who slew your son?" Davos pointed. "These Freys were amongst his hosts at the Red Wedding."
One of the Freys stepped forward, a knight long and lean of limb, clean-shaved but for a grey mustache as thin as a Myrish stiletto. "The Red Wedding was the Young Wolf's work. He changed into a beast before our eyes and tore out the throat of my cousin Jinglebell, a harmless simpleton. He would have slain my lord father too, if Ser Wendel had not put himself in the way."

 

 

House Frey is already countering the story too with their own events.

 

 

Now lets look at another event, this one from the past, that plays into current events with Oberyn Martell seeking revenge for Elia Martell. Tywin's killing of Elia and her children via Amory Lorch and the Mountain. 

 

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A Storm of Swords - Tyrion VI

"Well, it's a tale, and Ser Amory's not like to deny it. What will you tell Oberyn when he asks who gave Lorch his orders?"
"Ser Amory acted on his own in the hope of winning favor from the new king. Robert's hatred for Rhaegar was scarcely a secret."
It might serve, Tyrion had to concede, but the snake will not be happy. "Far be it from me to question your cunning, Father, but in your place I do believe I'd have let Robert Baratheon bloody his own hands."
Lord Tywin stared at him as if he had lost his wits. "You deserve that motley, then. We had come late to Robert's cause. It was necessary to demonstrate our loyalty. When I laid those bodies before the throne, no man could doubt that we had forsaken House Targaryen forever. And Robert's relief was palpable. As stupid as he was, even he knew that Rhaegar's children had to die if his throne was ever to be secure. Yet he saw himself as a hero, and heroes do not kill children." His father shrugged. "I grant you, it was done too brutally. Elia need not have been harmed at all, that was sheer folly. By herself she was nothing."

 

 
 
Here we can see, that Tywin already has his scapegoat and story all lined out. He was never there and never involved. Tywin's favorite M.O.
 
 
Its very much worth pointing out that Tywin say's Robert would never kill kids. He viewed himself as the Hero. Everyone knew his anger for the Targaryen's, but even Tywin doesn't think he'd murder a baby. This is important as many people seem to think Ned had to hide Jon from Robert because Robert would have killed Jon. Despite never having sent assassins' for Viserys and Daenerys.
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A Storm of Swords - Tyrion X

"Elia found it all exciting. She was of that age, and her delicate health had never permitted her much travel. I preferred to amuse myself by mocking my sister's suitors. There was Little Lord Lazyeye, Squire Squishlips, one I named the Whale That Walks, that sort of thing. The only one who was even halfway presentable was young Baelor Hightower. A pretty lad, and my sister was half in love with him until he had the misfortune to fart once in our presence. I promptly named him Baelor Breakwind, and after that Elia couldn't look at him without laughing. I was a monstrous young fellow, someone should have sliced out my vile tongue."
Yes, Tyrion agreed silently. Baelor Hightower was no longer young, but he remained Lord Leyton's heir; wealthy, handsome, and a knight of splendid repute. Baelor Brightsmile, they called him now. Had Elia wed him in place of Rhaegar Targaryen, she might be in Oldtown with her children growing tall around her. He wondered how many lives had been snuffed out by that fart.

 

And what was it about Elia that offended and angered Tywin that he would have Elia raped and her babies murdered?

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A Storm of Swords - Tyrion X

"—ruled the Seven Kingdoms, but was ruled at home by his lady wife, or so my mother always said." Prince Oberyn raised his arms, so Lord Dagos Manwoody and the Bastard of Godsgrace could slip a chainmail byrnie down over his head. "At Oldtown we learned of your mother's death, and the monstrous child she had borne. We might have turned back there, but my mother chose to sail on. I told you of the welcome we found at Casterly Rock.
"What I did not tell you was that my mother waited as long as was decent, and then broached your father about our purpose. Years later, on her deathbed, she told me that Lord Tywin had refused us brusquely. His daughter was meant for Prince Rhaegar, he informed her. And when she asked for Jaime, to espouse Elia, he offered her you instead."
"Which offer she took for an outrage."

Tywin denied a marriage between Oberyn and Cersei cause Cersei was meant to marry Rhaegar in his mind. Yet.

 

 

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A Storm of Swords - Tyrion X

"It was. Even you can see that, surely?"
"Oh, surely." It all goes back and back, Tyrion thought, to our mothers and fathers and theirs before them. We are puppets dancing on the strings of those who came before us, and one day our own children will take up our strings and dance on in our steads. "Well, Prince Rhaegar married Elia of Dorne, not Cersei Lannister of Casterly Rock. So it would seem your mother won that tilt."
"She thought so," Prince Oberyn agreed, "but your father is not a man to forget such slights. He taught that lesson to Lord and Lady Tarbeck once, and to the Reynes of Castamere. And at King's Landing, he taught it to my sister. My helm, Dagos." Manwoody handed it to him; a high golden helm with a copper disk mounted on the brow, the sun of Dorne. The visor had been removed, Tyrion saw. "Elia and her children have waited long for justice." Prince Oberyn pulled on soft red leather gloves, and took up his spear again. "But this day they shall have it."

 

 
Things didn't work out that way. Elia Martell married Rhaegar and Tywin was slighted by Oberyn's mother, Lady Mellario of the Free Cities. (Keep this in mind as we will be returning to the subject of the Free Cities when we talk more about Aerys II)
 
So lets look at what we're told by Yandel and the general "canon" of events leading up to Harrenhal and Roberts Rebellion.
 
Its starts off we're told that after Aery's appoints Tywin as hand, that Aery's takes liberties with Tywins wife. With Joanna later being kicked out from court by Rhaella. Aery's would cheat on Rhaella alot. 
We are told that Aerys descended into madness and had crazy ideas and that after Duskendale where Tywin saved the King and put down Duskendale, Aerys began to distrust Tywin and his own son Rhaegar. That Aerys went even more mad from then on. Much of this were told from Yandel, whos is writing for the Lannisters.
We are told that Rhaegar secretly hosted Harrenhal to usurp his father, and only was interrupted by the random desire to rape Lyanna Stark and start a war he wasn't even present for most of.
That Brandon Stark was hung while Rickard was burned alive, possibly with wildfire as the king had grown fond of doing to people after 280ac, or so Yandel tells us. That the war against him was justified and that Jamie slew the King being named Kingslayer ever after. (I will touch upon this very soon)
With the war ending and Robert marrying Cersei Lannister, becoming Queen as her and Tywin always wanted.
 

 

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A Storm of Swords - Jaime II

But when he closed his eyes, it was Aerys Targaryen he saw, pacing alone in his throne room, picking at his scabbed and bleeding hands. The fool was always cutting himself on the blades and barbs of the Iron Throne. Jaime had slipped in through the king's door, clad in his golden armor, sword in hand. The golden armor, not the white, but no one ever remembers that. Would that I had taken off that damned cloak as well.
When Aerys saw the blood on his blade, he demanded to know if it was Lord Tywin's. "I want him dead, the traitor. I want his head, you'll bring me his head, or you'll burn with all the rest. All the traitors. Rossart says they are inside the walls! He's gone to make them a warm welcome. Whose blood? Whose?"
"Rossart's," answered Jaime.
Ser Elys Westerling and Lord Crakehall and others of his father's knights burst into the hall in time to see the last of it, so there was no way for Jaime to vanish and let some braggart steal the praise or blame. It would be blame, he knew at once when he saw the way they looked at him . . . though perhaps that was fear. Lannister or no, he was one of Aerys's seven.
"The castle is ours, ser, and the city," Roland Crakehall told him, which was half true. Targaryen loyalists were still dying on the serpentine steps and in the armory, Gregor Clegane and Amory Lorch were scaling the walls of Maegor's Holdfast, and Ned Stark was leading his northmen through the King's Gate even then, but Crakehall could not have known that. He had not seemed surprised to find Aerys slain; Jaime had been Lord Tywin's son long before he had been named to the Kingsguard.
"Tell them the Mad King is dead," he commanded. "Spare all those who yield and hold them captive."
"Shall I proclaim a new king as well?" Crakehall asked, and Jaime read the question plain: Shall it be your father, or Robert Baratheon, or do you mean to try to make a new dragonking? He thought for a moment of the boy Viserys, fled to Dragonstone, and of Rhaegar's infant son Aegon, still in Maegor's with his mother. A new Targaryen king, and my father as Hand. How the wolves will howl, and the storm lord choke with rage. For a moment he was tempted, until he glanced down again at the body on the floor, in its spreading pool of blood. His blood is in both of them, he thought. "Proclaim who you bloody well like," he told Crakehall. Then he climbed the Iron Throne and seated himself with his sword across his knees, to see who would come to claim the kingdom. As it happened, it had been Eddard Stark.
You had no right to judge me either, Stark.
In his dreams the dead came burning, gowned in swirling green flames. Jaime danced around them with a golden sword, but for every one he struck down two more arose to take his place.
Brienne woke him with a boot in the ribs. The world was still black, and it had begun to rain. They broke their fast on oatcakes, salt fish, and some blackberries that Ser Cleos had found, and were back in the saddle before the sun came up.

 

 
 
So most people are under the assumption that Jamie actually saved everyone. Stark judged him guilty and that was some how it. He was forever the Kingslayer. 
 
Weird.

Crakehall can vouche for Jamie telling them to chose who they please. Robert would forgive Jamie if he told him the truth, its not really like Eddard Starks opinion really matters one bit. Further, Yandel is writing a "Cleaned up" version of history for the Lannisters anyways. So why not just tell the truth, and have it be known publicly that Jamie saved everyone. Robert is king, not Eddard. 
 
So, lets back up here and re-examine some of the things we are told.
 
We are told that young Aerys wanted to be the best King ever. That after meeting with Rickard Stark, he planned to extend the North and build an extra wall or a new wall north 100 miles. He plans to build a new capitol across from the river cause K.L. smells bad. He plans to build aquaducts in Dorne to help the desert areas, and has some disagreement with Braavos over money, though Ned reports that Aerys left the Crown very rich. So why does he need the Iron Bank? Did he borrow money, and not spend it?
 
There are a series of marriages being worked out with the final order going as such. 
Brandon Stark would wed Cat Tully of the Riverlands.
Robert Baratheon would wed Lyanna Stark
Rhaegar would we Elia Martell of Dorne.
 
Now. With Jon Arryn loyal to Eddard and Robert, and Robert loyal to the Crown, and Starks tied to Tullys, who are now tied to the crown. All we have left is the Tyrells who are already loyal to the crown, and can wed Maegery to Viserys when he comes of age, and House Grey Joy who are loyal to the Throne.
 
This leaves out only House Lannister from this Targaryen super alliance.
 
Up to this point. Doran is married to Mellario of Norvos. While Oberyn has fathered a woman on a septa, an Old Town whore, a Volantene Nobel woman, and a captain of possibly a Swanship.
 
Aerys is listed has wanting to take over the StepStones and with the Targaryen Super alliance, Aerys would be free to expand his kingdom into the Free Cities of Essos. 
 
Some thing else we are told is that Aerys was forced to marry his sister Rhaella. Aerys may have had feelings for Joanna instead of his sister. Joanna may have liked Aerys too, which may have angered Tywin.
 

 

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A Storm of Swords - Tyrion X

Prince Oberyn agreed, "your father is not a man to forget such slights.

 

 
 
Rhaella is also listed as having 5 unsuccessful pregnancies. With the last one being Viserys many years ago. She is now getting old, but Aerys has supposedly became faithful to her after suspecting one of her maids of poisoning Rhaella.
 
This is something we see Tywin have done to Jeyne so Robb can't have an heir. This is suspect.
 
Then we are told that Duskendale is rumored to have taken Aerys because the lady there is from Myr. Myr who is against Volantis, where Oberyn's kid is from and where the Targaryen's go to find brides sometimes as the old blood runs strong there.
Tywin was willing to let the king die in order to put down Duskendale, leading to Aerys not to trust him. 
 
Now we are told that Aerys begins to not trust Rhaegar, but why? Rhaegar isn't even mentioned to do with Duskendale and Rhaegar hasn't even tried to gather any lords about him as he supposedly tries to do at Harrenhal. Further, when we hear from Rhaegar, he's supporting his father and refuses to take his crutch, Jamie. As Aerys fears Tywin more than Robert Baratheon. Even though Tywin is supposedly sitting out the war on the Rock. Lets back up a bit though.
 
Sometime after Duskendale, Varys comes to court and has links to Myr where he was castrated and lived.
 
Rumor says that Rhaegar is hosting the Tourney of Harrenhal through the Wents to begin securing his uprising. Varys warns Aerys, who goes out into public for the first time in years, allowing people to see the wreck he's become in his Tywin paranoia.
 
Pycell is in court too talking up good Tywin Lannister and reporting anything said in K.L. to Tywin. Pycell is also the Maester at K.L. and would help with births.
 
It would appear that Tywin is fueling Aerys suspicions and paranoia in a ploy to make him look crazy. While possibly going in debt to the Iron Bank to fund Harrenhal. The Iron Bank, who hate Targaryens, dragons, and slaves. Something Volantis supports. Volantis also wants Myr, Lys, and Tyrosh. 
 
Now. Did Tywin plan on Jeyne meeting Robb, or was it happenstance that just happened to be hapfull rather than hapless? Something he used to his advantage.
 
This is important into the question about Lyanna and the mysterious events of Harrenhal and after. 
 
Now, we are never told that Rhaegar and Lyanna met. Only that Rhaegar crowns her with blue roses and later kidnaps her. Leading many to suspect Lyanna was the Mystery Knight that Meera constantly calls a guy with a booming voice. That Rhaegar found the Knight and discovered it was Lyanna, and quickly fell for her. Rhaegar does not tell anyone including his father that it was merely a girl who wanted to compete. That this chance encounter was enough for Rhaegar to leave his wife Elia and two kids, and throw the Kingdom into war. A Kingdom with all the houses except house Lannister in union with each other. A war that only benefited Tywin, who got Cersei as Queen to Robert instead of Rhaegar. "Some" reports claim that Rhaegar took Lyanna and was raping her, while "Some" reports that Rhaegar loved Lyanna. Yet no one suspects Jon is their child though, which is weird. Sex leads to babies, even forced sex. (also, forced sex makes me think of a monster like Ramsey being born and possibly Tyrion who could be a child of Aerys II.) 
 

 

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A Storm of Swords - Tyrion X

Prince Oberyn agreed, "your father is not a man to forget such slights.

 

 
 
 
There are many things though about Harrenhal that don't make sense.
 
Like Lyanna having a booming Voice and being described as a guy by Meera who could have chose neutral terms rather than "He, him, and his"
 
Its also curious where Rhaegar got a blue rose for Lyanna from when he literally just met her and the roses are rare. No way to get to winterfell and back in time with blue roses.
 
Also, kidnapping a girl you just gave flowers to in front of every one says either you are stupid or looking to get caught. Since he supposedly hit at the Tower of Joy, we can assumer he didn't want to be caught. So he's just stupid. Or, he didn't do it.
 
When comparing Sansa and the Hand's Tourney, Sansa is into Loras, but Loras is not only gay, but a Kingsguard and forbidden to marry. Loras gives her a rose, yet, Loras isn't who kidnaps Lyanna. Its Peter Bael(ish), who takes her North. 
 
Is it possible that Rhaegar did not take Lyanna and that Lyanna actually went North? What evidence is there for this?
 
Well, there is the legend of Bael, who kidnaps the daughter of a Stark lord/King and fathers a kid with her in the crypts of Winterfell. With the son later fighting his father at the Wall who is now King beyond the Wall. He refuses to fight his son though and is murdered. Could there be a mirror to this?
 
We are told by Tormund that he slept with a bear and had kids with her, with Alysane Mormont being described as having a crooked teeth smile like Tormund. Her mother being the She Bear Maege Mormont. 
 
Tormund follows a King Beyond the Wall named Mance Rayder who later goes by the name Abel-(Bael).
 
Now, some interesting things about Mance Rayder. He was fathered by a Nightswatchmen on a common girl like how Craster was on a wildling. Mance either way, is of the North and the Old Gods. Maybe he's even from White Tree like Crastor is. 
 
Mance knows of the legend of Bael, and unlike Tormund who wanted to be King, Mance actually became King after submitting Tormund. 
 
Mance tells Melisandre that he's tasted Summer wine and Dornishman's wives. While Summer Wine isn't found in the North and Tyrion has to bring his own. 
 
Mance also sings this song to Jon asking how he likes it. 
 
There was an unnamed black brother in attendance at Harrenhal when Mance Rayder was still serving the Watch.
 
Mance also faces Jon at the Wall but refuses to fight or kill him, despite betrayal. A glamoured Mance is then murdered by Melisandre and Stannis, with Jon ending it quickly.
 
Mance is the right age to have been at Harrenhal, he was a Black brother, he knew of Bael and the Blue winter rose, and Mance can fight. So well, that even Jon who can take on multiple men at once, is easily beat by him when Mance is glamoured as Rattleshirt.
 
Whats more, Mance wants a way into the crypts.
 
Jon also keeps dreaming about the crypts. 
 
Mance also has a mysterious story about how he got a red silk slash, something Rhaegar is known to have worn. Claiming a ship from Asshai washed up on the North East of Westeros. 
 
Who ever the Mystery Knight was though, Rhaegar needed them to drop out of the Tourney so he could win. He was trying to impress his lords after all.
 
Could Mance have been the Bael the took the Stark and left a blue rose? Could Mance have accidentally helped frame Rhaegar to the benifit of Tywin, who capitalized on it and blamed Rhaegar some how to Brandon? Or did Brandon just assume Rhaegar on his own because of the Rose, with Tywin's only plan to frame him for Harrenhal Tourney. The Rose and Mance just a added bonus for Tywin.
 
And if Rhaegar wasn't kidnapping Lyanna, and Lyanna was in the North. Then where was Rhaegar? Tower of Joy still? And who was there if not Lyanna? 
Could it be Ashara Dayne, with her brother Arthur on guard? Barristan thinks Dany looks like Ashara's daughter, who is allegedly stillborn. 
 
Daenerys name rhymes with Dayne Heiress too. On top of Daenery's memories of Lemon Trees and Braavos not adding up to what we see of Braavos, and Quaithe telling Dany to remember who she is. As if Dany could forget that she's a Targaryen, she's lived in terror everyday for being a Targaryen. As if she could forget. Unless, this isn't who she really is. A targaryen yes, but not the child of Aerys and Rhaella. Who after many years barely managed to have 2 kids live out of 7. Yet in her old age, she had another healthy child, when the risk would actually be the greatest of miscarriage.
 
Now, Barristan tells us that Ashara Dayne was dishonored at Harrenhal. That maybe if he had won and crowned Ashara, might she not have looked to Stark. Barristan seems to get a long great with Eddard Stark who spends the night with Howland Reed in his tent. 
 
With Ashara being dishonored and Rhaegar randomly meeting Lyanna and crowing her. We have to ask ourselves, who would he have crowned if not for Lyanna. Would he have crowned his wife Elia Martell? Or was he going to crown Ashara Dayne, the only woman possibly as attractive or more than Cersei, who is not in attendance. 

If Ashara Dayne was expecting to be crowned, she would indeed be "looking' to Lyanna "Stark" as that's who is getting her crown. We are told that Ashara is sad about the man who dishonored her at Harrenhal.

 

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A Dance with Dragons - The Kingbreaker

Even after all these years, Ser Barristan could still recall Ashara's smile, the sound of her laughter. He had only to close his eyes to see her, with her long dark hair tumbling about her shoulders and those haunting purple eyes. Daenerys has the same eyes. Sometimes when the queen looked at him, he felt as if he were looking at Ashara's daughter …
But Ashara's daughter had been stillborn, and his fair lady had thrown herself from a tower soon after, mad with grief for the child she had lost, and perhaps for the man who had dishonored her at Harrenhal as well. She died never knowing that Ser Barristan had loved her. How could she? He was a knight of the Kingsguard, sworn to celibacy. No good could have come from telling her his feelings. No good came from silence either. If I had unhorsed Rhaegar and crowned Ashara queen of love and beauty, might she have looked to me instead of Stark?
He would never know. But of all his failures, none haunted Barristan Selmy so much as that.

 

 
 Did the guy who dishonored her at Harrenhal die? Eddard Stark is still alive, Rhaegar is the only one we know she knew who is dead. As her brother is best friends to Rhaegar. 
 
 
Why would Rhaegar being hooking up with Ashara Dayne and not Lyanna? How is that any better?
 
Well, for one, Ashara Dayne is Dornish. Where having paramour's is not shameful. Many people have them, and Quentyn is suggested to be Dany's. Elia cannot have any more children, and Ashara Dayne may be a suitable candidate for a surrogate mother for Rhaegar's 3rd child. A daughter Visenya, based on Rhaeny's and Aegon naming scheme.
 
Keep in mind too that Edric corrects Arya when she asks how they can be brothers. He tells he they are not Blood brothers, as Jon was never in Dorne for him to be blood brothers with Edric. Edric doesn't think Jon was ever in Dorne.

 

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A Storm of Swords - Arya VIII

"Brother?" Arya did not understand. "But you're from Dorne. How could you and Jon be blood?"
"Milk brothers. Not blood. My lady mother had no milk when I was little, so Wylla had to nurse me."
Arya was lost. "Who's Wylla?"

 

 
 
He is also named for Ned. So after killing Arthur and dishonoring Ashara Dayne, they name one of their own after him? Doesn't make sense. Unless Ned didn't dishonor Ashara, and her baby is Rhaegars. So Eddard promises to hide the baby from Robert. 
 
Ned thinks of broken promises later, while Robert is dead and Jon is safe at the Watch beyond the reach of Kings and Queens. The only person he failed to protect was Dany, as Vary's letters to kill her had already flown, despite Roberts change of heart on his death bed. Ned was willing to risk death by Robert to protect Dany and stop her murder. After Roberts death, its his first thoughts. Not securing the Throne and the Palace and Roberts kids and Wife, but of protecting Dany.
 
Either way, Rrandon Stark is under the impression that Rhaegar took her and so goes to K.L to get her and demand for Rhaegar to die. Aerys takes this for Treason probably having no idea what the heck he's talking about. Then kills Rickard and Brandon after Rickard comes south. I imagine good Pycell demanding they die, as he does when talking about Dany later, or the Starks rebelling. 
 
Ive talked else where of the unlikeliness that Aerys was actually burning any one alive, let alone Rickard Stark. Baristan never thinks of Aerys handling things that way, and accounts about it doesn't add up. 
 

 

 

At this point, Aerys calls for the heads of Robert Baratheon and Eddard Stark. Whether put forward by Pycell who is loyal to the Lannisters, or Varys. It is something reasonably called for after the seemingly rebellious and treasonous actions of Brandon Stark. Though, a more tempered person would still have handled it with more care. Especially the issue of Brandon and Rickard. Though one does wonder what was said while they were there in court. 

Aerys would either have to know Rhaegar took Lyanna and not care, or Aerys knows Rhaegar did not. We are told Rhaegar could not be found after he left for the Trident, and didn't return till his father sent Barristan for him. Rhaegar, who started the war supposedly, when  he gave her a rose and had to know he would be the first suspect, doesn't lead the war and instead hides until called for.

 

So when Rickard and Brandon make their accusations, I wonder what the king said and thought. Did he know where Rhaegar was with Lyanna and just want to sabotage the Targaryen uber alliance he had? The power it gave him against his enemy Tywin, to have every kingdom on your side against House Lannister. We know he feared Tywin more than Robert, and Tywin is who sacked K.L. 

Sure Aerys could self sabotage for no reason, yet, we are shown a bitter Tywin possibly working against Aerys through Pycell to kill his children, and destabilize his position. 
 
So now, with the Kingdom on the brink of war, lets look at wat happened and what led to Rhaegar's death and Cersei sitting on the Throne with Robert Baratheon, who had a better claim to the Throne than Tywin could ever hope for. A drop of dragon blood. Which is why Eddard Stark and Jon Arryn were not made kings. Despite Jon's seniority, and Eddards position as it was his sister's theft that started the war, and his brother and fathers deaths. Making his House the head of the conflict in many ways.
 
 
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With his father and brother dead, Eddard was now the Lord of Winterfell. He wanted to raise his banners to join Robert's Rebellion, but getting from the Vale of Arryn to the north was complicated by the loyalty to the Iron Throne of Gulltown, the Vale's chief port.[31][32] Eddard crossed the Mountains of the Moon to the Fingers and hired a fisherman to bring him to White Harbor with a boat. They were caught by a storm on the Bite and the fisherman drowned. However, his daughter brought Eddard to the Three Sisters. When he arrived at Sisterton, House Borrell's maester urged Lord Borrell to deliver Eddard's head to King Aerys II Targaryen, but Lord Borrell, knowing that Jon Arryn and Robert Baratheon had taken Gulltown in the meantime, was unsure who would prevail in the conflict. Thus he let Ned leave for White Harbor, telling him to remain silent about his stay in Sisterton in case the rebellion failed.[32]

Eddard called his banners, and marched south to join Robert, arriving with Lord Hoster Tully in time to turn the tide at the Battle of the Bells.[33] Afterward, he went to Riverrun to marry Hoster's elder daughter, Catelyn, who had been betrothed to his brother Brandon before his death.[10] Jon Arryn married Hoster's younger daughter, Lysa, in the same ceremony. The double wedding bound House Tully to the rebels' cause.[1]

The rebels won their decisive victory in the Battle of the Trident, in which Robert killed Prince Rhaegar Targaryen in single combat at the ruby ford. Because Robert had been wounded by Rhaegar, it fell on Eddard to pursue the remnants of Aerys's armies to King's Landing.[14]

 

 

 
This is a little interesting given that they wed at Riverrun after winning the Battle of the Bells, their next battle was at the Trident, North East of Riverrun. A ways away from where the Bells happened. Why? Where they losing ground? Harrenhal was held by House Whent. Did they not oppose Eddards ride south? Was the castle empty? If so, why didn't the North take it. In Robb's rebellion Harrenhal was important to both forces.
 

 

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Aftermath

The battle was the decisive engagement of the war. Walder Frey arrived after the battle was over, so Lord Hoster Tully has since called him "the Late Lord Frey" and questioned his loyalty.[17] 

 

 

 
Ummm. What deal did Ned make with the Frey's to cross the Neck? Frey made Robb marry one of his daughters. Also, why didn't Ned make the Frey's march an army south with them to Riverrun? Could Tywin have already gotten to Walder Frey to get him to stay neutral? Something seems odd.
 
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Lord Walter Whent hosted a great tourney at Harrenhal in 281 AC. The famous tournament resulted in the crowning of Rhaegar Targaryen, Prince of Dragonstone, as its champion, and is also noted for the participation of the mysterious Knight of the Laughing Tree.[31] Ser Jaime Lannister was named to the Kingsguard of Aerys II Targaryen during the tourney.[32]

Prior to the outbreak of Robert's Rebellion, Rhaegar abducted Lyanna Stark less than ten leagues from Harrenhal.[32] The Whents have been noted for their own tragedies.[2]

 

 

We're not even told much about Harrenhal and the Whents at that time. 
Yet Whents staying out because Tywin funded Harrenhal would make alot of sense

 

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History

As a toddler Walder was present at the wedding of his elder sister to Lord Ambrose Butterwell at Whitewalls.[N 1] It is said he caused the marriage when he discovered his sister having intimate relations with a servant. Ser Duncan the Tall thought that Walder was an extremely annoying child, and was sorely tempted to throw him down a well.[9]

When Lord Tytos Lannister acquiesced to Walder's proposal to marry his second son, Emmon, to Tytos's daughter Genna, the ten-year-old Tywin Lannister spoke out against the match.[17]

During Robert's Rebellion, Walder and his levies arrived at the Battle of the Trident after the rebels had already won. Hoster Tully, the Lord Paramount of the Trident, has since called his bannerman "the Late Lord Frey",[8][13][4] a name Walder despises.[6] Lord Jon Arryn refused to foster Walder's grandsons at court in King's Landing and his own son, Robert Arryn, at the Twins.[4] Lord Hoster Tully refused a Frey bride for his son Edmure, and Hoster did not attend Walder's wedding to his seventh wife, Annara Farring.[4]

 

 

 
We're not told much about Walder Frey during Roberts Rebellion other than that before the Rebellion, House Lannister had indeed gotten to House Frey. Tywin would feel House Frey heavily indebted to House Lannister already.
 
This is getting long though and we still have much to talk about. With the Sack of K.L., the fall out, and how things in the current story may make better sense knowing Tywin's hand in matters. Also, we'll try to look at House Tyrell's actions in the matters, and how House Tarly worked against Hoster Tully purposely not doing anything.
 

 

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A Game of Thrones - Eddard XV

Robert had been jesting with Jon and old Lord Hunter as the prince circled the field after unhorsing Ser Barristan in the final tilt to claim the champion's crown. Ned remembered the moment when all the smiles died, when Prince Rhaegar Targaryen urged his horse past his own wife, the Dornish princess Elia Martell, to lay the queen of beauty's laurel in Lyanna's lap. He could see it still: a crown of winter roses, blue as frost.
Ned Stark reached out his hand to grasp the flowery crown, but beneath the pale blue petals the thorns lay hidden. He felt them clawing at his skin, sharp and cruel, saw the slow trickle of blood run down his fingers, and woke, trembling, in the dark.

 

 
 
 
 
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Olenna Tyrell,[3][6][7] née Redwyne,[1][2] is the widow of Lord Luthor Tyrell and the mother of Mace Tyrell, Lord of Highgarden. Born into House Redwyne of the Arbor, she is commonly known as the Queen of Thorns because of her sharp tongue.[

 

 

 

 

 

Edit - Before I continue in Part 2. Its worth adding hear an aspect of the Lannister Narrative vs the truth and what Jamie really thinks and knows. He is a liar. Also a quick note on Aerys lack of interest in the "Fire Priest"

 
 

 

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A Storm of Swords - Jaime V

"Gold armor?" Her voice sounded far off, faint.
He floated in heat, in memory. "After dancing griffins lost the Battle of the Bells, Aerys exiled him." Why am I telling this absurd ugly child? "He had finally realized that Robert was no mere outlaw lord to be crushed at whim, but the greatest threat House Targaryen had faced since Daemon Blackfyre. 

 

 

 

And yet, Jamie also recalls this, when he's not delusional from having his hand cut off and a fever. He also calls her an absurd ugly child and questions why he's bothering with his practiced lie, and yes, it is practiced. Later, Jamie thinks completely different than the story he told Brienne.
 

 

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A Feast for Crows - Jaime I

The day had been windy when he said farewell to Rhaegar, in the yard of the Red Keep. The prince had donned his night-black armor, with the three-headed dragon picked out in rubies on his breastplate. "Your Grace," Jaime had pleaded, "let Darry stay to guard the king this once, or Ser Barristan. Their cloaks are as white as mine."
Prince Rhaegar shook his head. "My royal sire fears your father more than he does our cousin Robert. He wants you close, so Lord Tywin cannot harm him. I dare not take that crutch away from him at such an hour."
Jaime's anger had risen up in his throat. "I am not a crutch. I am a knight of the Kingsguard."

 

 

So which is it? Is Aerys afraid of Robert as his greatest threat since the Blackfyres, or does he fear Tywin Lannister far more than he ever feared Robert Baratheon. This doesn't do well to prove Jamie as either honest, or a reliable narrator. He tells Brienne one thing, but literally thinks another. Its his practiced lie

 

 

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History

Thoros was born in the Free City of Myr, the youngest of eight children, and he was given to a red temple of R'hllor at a young age. He earned his priesthood but was never overly pious due to his tastes for fighting, drinking, and women. Thoros was sent to King's Landing in hopes he could convert the fire-obsessed King Aerys II Targaryen, but he was unsuccessful and started to question his own faith.[2]

 

 

 

Aery's isn't interested in the Red Priest and their burning people alive. Not sure why he'd be so interested in Pyromancers.

 

 

 

Edited by AlaskanSandman
Added Edit about Jamie and Thoros
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Thus far, the list of Tywin's doing in the war and build up thus far.

1. Poison's Rhaella through Pycelle to ensure Aery's has no children, driving him into paranoia 

2. After being spurning Melarrio of Dorne and her offer of Oberyn to Cersei, Mellario beats Tywin and gets Elia wed to Rhaegar. Tywin has Elia raped and beaten and her children killed. 

3. Tywin pays pyromancers to line kingslanding so HE can burn it down should he need to in his war against Aerys. 

4. Tywin Frames Rhaegar for hosting the Tourney of Harrenhal. Tywin is the secret backer and reason Harrenhal stays out of the war efforts.

5. Tywin works Walder Frey into not sending troops with Eddard to Riverrun or to the Trident.

6. Tywin works with the Iron Bank of Braavos who hate Targaryen's and dragons.

7. Tywin works to spread lies that Aerys is crazy and burning people 

8. Tywin uses Mance's taking of Lyanna to frame Rhaegar who is actually off with Ashara Dayne, his surrogate mother to his planned 3rd child. An expected daughter likely named Visenya

We will be discussing more about him as Robert bears down upon Kings Landing and Tywin moves to sack the city. We will also talk about how this plays out with Essos and ties to Aery's wanting to invade Essos and how the Iron Bank is against this. The Slave Trade. Dorne. More about Dany and Jon, and a general deeper look at the maneuverings of Tywin Lannister. Including ties to House Tyrell, who was working both ends, as we see them do in the current timespan. 

Edited by AlaskanSandman
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With Tywin possibly killing Rhaella's kids through Pycelle, who are Rhaegar's brothers. May explain why Rhaegar has his children on Dragon Stone and why he was away at Dorne with Ashara Dayne. It was to keep his baby safe from Tywin Lannister and who ever he had in court that was aiding him by killing Targaryen children. Pycelle. We'll talk more about this later too and what clues their are to suggest this.

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4 hours ago, AlaskanSandman said:

Things didn't work out that way. Elia Martell married Rhaegar and Tywin was slighted by Oberyn's mother, Lady Mellario of the Free Cities. (Keep this in mind as we will be returning to the subject of the Free Cities when we talk more about Aerys II)

lady Mellario was Doran's wife and Oberyn's sister-in-law . their mother was the ruling princess Martell of Dorne .

 

and why wouldn't Rhaegar just have his affair with Ashara in Dragonstone where they both lived at the time? having left his wife so soon after she nearly died to give birth, it doesn't seem he'd bother much about what Elia would think of him having sex with her companion in their home....I'm really starting to think Rhaegar was after some business about the prophecy that his newly born son was going to be a part of, not making a new child in a rush...if he happened to have a little affair with someone while being on his mission with his 6 confidants, that would be another matter entirely:)

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1 hour ago, EggBlue said:

lady Mellario was Doran's wife and Oberyn's sister-in-law . their mother was the ruling princess Martell of Dorne .

 

and why wouldn't Rhaegar just have his affair with Ashara in Dragonstone where they both lived at the time? having left his wife so soon after she nearly died to give birth, it doesn't seem he'd bother much about what Elia would think of him having sex with her companion in their home....I'm really starting to think Rhaegar was after some business about the prophecy that his newly born son was going to be a part of, not making a new child in a rush...if he happened to have a little affair with someone while being on his mission with his 6 confidants, that would be another matter entirely:)

Typo.

And im not saying he ran off and had an affair with Ashara Dayne. Im saying that after his wife and him couldn't have children, they decided to use Ashara Dayne as a surrogate mother. And why be at Dragonstone when she would want to be closer to her family in Dorne

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1 hour ago, EggBlue said:

lady Mellario was Doran's wife and Oberyn's sister-in-law . their mother was the ruling princess Martell of Dorne .

 

and why wouldn't Rhaegar just have his affair with Ashara in Dragonstone where they both lived at the time? having left his wife so soon after she nearly died to give birth, it doesn't seem he'd bother much about what Elia would think of him having sex with her companion in their home....I'm really starting to think Rhaegar was after some business about the prophecy that his newly born son was going to be a part of, not making a new child in a rush...if he happened to have a little affair with someone while being on his mission with his 6 confidants, that would be another matter entirely:)

Im questioning whether Aerys or Rhaegar actually believed in prophecy. I cover that in the op thread. Maester Aemon is blind and doesn't know who is writing him cause he can't see the hand writing, it could be anyone. 

Aerys blows off Thoros of Myr, a red priest who are all about the Prince that was Promised and Azor Ahai. IF they truly cared about prophecy, Thoros would be a close member of their court. Not ignoring him, leading Thoros to question his faith. 

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1 hour ago, EggBlue said:

lady Mellario was Doran's wife and Oberyn's sister-in-law . their mother was the ruling princess Martell of Dorne .

 

and why wouldn't Rhaegar just have his affair with Ashara in Dragonstone where they both lived at the time? having left his wife so soon after she nearly died to give birth, it doesn't seem he'd bother much about what Elia would think of him having sex with her companion in their home....I'm really starting to think Rhaegar was after some business about the prophecy that his newly born son was going to be a part of, not making a new child in a rush...if he happened to have a little affair with someone while being on his mission with his 6 confidants, that would be another matter entirely:)

If Rhaegar was interested in prophecy, (Which could be) then Aerys doesn't seem to be. 

Aside from Aemon Targaryen, all other sources for this information are not really reliable. Yandel? Dany's visions from the House of Black and White?

As far as Aemon, it appears someone is going into his mind to find information. This could only happen after the glass candles turned back on, before hand, who ever wanted information, there best way to get it from Aemon, is to write and pretend to be someone else. Letters are read to Aemon so he'd never know. You just have to intercept any message he sends in return. Considering the citadel and Maesters control the birds, that rest mainly in Marwyn's area if im not mistaken. 

Im not entirely convinced Aemon is talking to who he thinks when he writes Rhaegar. 

 

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On 12/14/2021 at 5:19 PM, AlaskanSandman said:

So why not just tell the truth, and have it be known publicly that Jamie saved everyone.

Jaime never told anyone the truth until Brienne, so Yandel doesn't know.

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or was it happenstance that just happened to be hapfull rather than hapless?

Robb had been wounded, and was dealing with the news of Bran & Rickon's supposed deaths.

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being described as a guy by Meera who could have chose neutral terms rather than "He, him, and his"

Meera wasn't there and is recounting what she was told by her father. And since only men have been knighted, it is a natural assumption that any knight must be a man. To use gender neutral terms would be unexpected and indicate the knight was not as expected. And since the knight was never actually caught & revealed despite Aerys' desires, the normal presumption that it was a man was never debunked.

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When comparing Sansa and the Hand's Tourney, Sansa is into Loras, but Loras is not only gay, but a Kingsguard and forbidden to marry

He was not a KG then, that only took place after Blackwater & Margaery's betrothal to Joffrey.

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Keep in mind too that Edric corrects Arya when she asks how they can be brothers. He tells he they are not Blood brothers, as Jon was never in Dorne for him to be blood brothers with Edric. Edric doesn't think Jon was ever in Dorne.

No, he doesn't say that. He says they're not blood brothers because he believes Jon's parents are Ned Stark & Wylla the wetnurse, neither of whom are related to House Dayne.

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He is also named for Ned.

Possibly, but some names are common and he's "Edric" rather than "Eddard".

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Ive talked else where of the unlikeliness that Aerys was actually burning any one alive, let alone Rickard Stark.

What about his mace-and-dagger Hand?

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It is something reasonably called for after the seemingly rebellious and treasonous actions of Brandon Stark.

How is it reasonable to kill entirely different people for Brandon's action? Even if you believed in an enormous collective punishment for a family, Robert isn't even related to him!

On 12/14/2021 at 8:59 PM, AlaskanSandman said:

3. Tywin pays pyromancers to line kingslanding so HE can burn it down should he need to in his war against Aerys.

It was Aerys who made a pyromancer his last Hand, so they were working under him. And if the city was lined with wildfire, that would make it all the more likely that Tywin himself would die when he sacked the city (and his son Jaime would die too).

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Tywin works to spread lies that Aerys is crazy and burning people

Barristan remembers that without any help from Tywin, and from what he saw of Viserys thought he was disturbed also. And Jaime remembers Aerys burning his penultimate Hand, rather than merely saying that in dialogue you can dismiss as lies.

On 12/14/2021 at 11:44 PM, AlaskanSandman said:

Aerys blows off Thoros of Myr, a red priest who are all about the Prince that was Promised and Azor Ahai.

We've never seen Thoros say anything about any Prince that was Promised, and by his own account he was a fat drunk with little faith prior to Beric's resurrection.

On 12/14/2021 at 11:53 PM, AlaskanSandman said:

Dany's visions from the House of Black and White?

What's wrong with that? Why would that be distorted the same way as you claim Aemon & Yandel's accounts are?

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For anybody reading this thread. There has been some modifications to my theory that you can find discussed in another more recent thread on Dorne for Daenerys. Where I bring up some other points on the wildfire that have changed "Some" of my mind, but not all.

The Fruit pots claimed to be Aery's, were actually Olenna's. Redwyne's of the Arbor. 

They were not how ever placed all over the city and there is no evidence for Aerys doing this. We are told of two places they are found. One found a year before Tyrion burns the blackwater, during the reign of Robert and Cersei Lannister. Its under the Sept of Baelor, which who Aerys had no issue. Only Olenna and Luthor Tyrell would as Tyrell had a Targaryen marriage fall through to an incest marriage. This is the only questionable location.

The only other location we know of is under the Dragon pit, and it was just found before Tyrion burns the blackwater. Tyrion however thinks the Dragonpit is actually as good a place as any. Its ruined, unused, and Bloodraven already burned bodies there with wildfire. Neither these pots or the ones under the Sept are listed as being fruit pots though.

Tyrion is the only person we see distribute wildfire to all the postern gates at K.L.

Jamie is still the only person other than Yandel, claiming Aerys burned anyone. Yandel is writing a smear campaign and gives a pass to the Lannisters for the sack of K.L. and rape of Elia.

Jamie also kills Rosart at a Postern Gate, when he's the only K.G in the castle to guard Aerys. Who wanted him by his side as a crutch. How likely would Aerys let Jamie leave to go kill Rosart? His vow states he's to be by the Kings side unless "ordered" to do otherwise.

Jamie also alleges that Aerys dipped his hand in Wildfire and burned him. How much wildfire do you need to "dip" some one in it? Thats an expensive amount given what we're told. We are not told that they "Poured" wildfire on him either, no, they "Dipped" him in it. A substance that is wild and unpredictable and can soak into stone or steel and spread. Even Jamie warns Cersei about using it to bring down the Tower of the Hand. Saying it could spread and burn the whole castle down.

Then there is also the issue of the cost of all that Wildfire after we're led to believe that the Royal Coffers also footed the bill for the prizes and event of Harrenhal, that were 3x the amount Tywin did for the birth of Viserys Tourney. With House Lannisters wealth being known to dwarf that of the Thrones, and even be rumored so far away as the East. Yet the crown bore the cost of this Tourney, the gifts, and ridiculous amounts of wildfire, while still leaving the royal coffers full for Robert Baratheon.

So while I no longer suspect the Lannisters alone of the Wildfire plot, i do think they are in on it to some extent. 

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10 hours ago, AlaskanSandman said:

Who gained the most from Roberts Rebellion? Robert certainly doesn't think it was him.

The Baratheons definitely gained the most. Stannis went from second son to Lord of the Narrow Sea. Renly is LP of the storm lands. Robert is now king of westeros. Tywin gets royal grandchildren and his son isn't executed, but those grandchildren would ostensibly be half Baratheon and Jaime merely stays where he's at. 

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8 hours ago, Universal Sword Donor said:

The Baratheons definitely gained the most. Stannis went from second son to Lord of the Narrow Sea. Renly is LP of the storm lands. Robert is now king of westeros. Tywin gets royal grandchildren and his son isn't executed, but those grandchildren would ostensibly be half Baratheon and Jaime merely stays where he's at. 

Well Stannis and Renly certainly got a boost, but not near as high a boost as Tywin finally getting his daughter married to the King. Which seats his family on the Throne, which Tywin needed the blood tie to claim the throne. The only thing that gives Stannis and Renly their legit claim. He pulled a Lann the Clever essentially. Helping to pit houses against each other so he can rise up while making careful marriage alliances. Which even back then, Tywin had Frey in his pocket. That's just imo though. Stannis only has a daughter and is no real threat in the long run, while Renly is gay and debatable if he would do his duty and father an heir or not. As high as they rose, they leave no legacy in place. Should they die, who picks up their fight even? If Tywin dies, he has Jamie, Tyrion and Cersei. If they die, they're is Joffery, Tommen, and Myrcella. Then a host of other Lannisters in the background who would stake their claim. Baratheons don't really gain a long fight. Even Dany, with out an heir, has no long game plan for holding the throne.

Edited by AlaskanSandman
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On 12/22/2021 at 6:37 PM, AlaskanSandman said:

The Fruit pots claimed to be Aery's, were actually Olenna's. Redwyne's of the Arbor.

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Those from King Aerys's day. It was his fancy to have the jars made in the shapes of fruits. [...] And much of the stock we made for Aerys was lost

Why would Hallyne lie to Tyrion about Aerys ordering the jars?

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Jamie is still the only person other than Yandel, claiming Aerys burned anyone

He doesn't merely "claim" Aerys burned his penultimate Hand, he remembers it. Why would he have false memories for the reader? And Tyrion tells LF that Hand burned to death.

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Jamie also kills Rosart at a Postern Gate, when he's the only K.G in the castle to guard Aerys. Who wanted him by his side as a crutch. How likely would Aerys let Jamie leave to go kill Rosart?

Aerys ordered Jaime to go kill his father, and asked if Rossart's blood on the sword was Tywin's. "I want him dead, the traitor. I want his head, you'll bring me his head, or you'll burn with all the rest. All the traitors. Rossart says they are inside the walls! He's gone to make them a warm welcome." That's Jaime remembering, not yet telling Brienne.

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Then there is also the issue of the cost of all that Wildfire after we're led to believe that the Royal Coffers also footed the bill for the prizes and event of Harrenhal, that were 3x the amount Tywin did for the birth of Viserys Tourney. With House Lannisters wealth being known to dwarf that of the Thrones, and even be rumored so far away as the East. Yet the crown bore the cost of this Tourney, the gifts, and ridiculous amounts of wildfire, while still leaving the royal coffers full for Robert Baratheon.

https://nobodysuspectsthebutterfly.tumblr.com/tagged/grrm%20can%27t%20math

20 hours ago, AlaskanSandman said:

Who gained the most from Roberts Rebellion? Robert certainly doesn't think it was him.

That's because Robert wanted Lyanna rather than a crown, and she died. All Tywin got out of it was Cersei as queen, because Lyanna died. Lyanna was still alive (barely) when Ned got to her, so anticipating that she would be dead by the end of the rebellion seems like way too big of a stretch for any conspirator.

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Hallyne wasn't in on the plot, as all are dead now. Jamie supposedly saw to that.

 

Jamie tells Brienne Aerys feared Robert as the Greatest threat since the Blackfyres, while thinking to himself instead. That Aery's feared his father the most, and wanted Jamie close as a hostage/crutch.

 

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A Storm of Swords - Jaime II

When Aerys saw the blood on his blade, he demanded to know if it was Lord Tywin's. "I want him dead, the traitor. I want his head, you'll bring me his head, or you'll burn with all the rest. All the traitors. Rossart says they are inside the walls! He's gone to make them a warm welcome. Whose blood? Whose?"

 

 
 
 
So which is it. Did Aerys already order him to go kill his father? And this is why Jamie left his post.
'
Or, did Jamie leave his post and show up with blood on his sword. With the King ordering him right then, to kill his father.  Jamie's memory indicates that Aery's first made the order upon seeing the blood. So it can't be both. Jamie left his post before being ordered to, which contradicts his oath of guard, and his story. He betrays Aerys before ever being conflicted with "Killing his father orders".
 
Jamie is hardly a reliable narrator. 
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4 hours ago, AlaskanSandman said:

Well Stannis and Renly certainly got a boost, but not near as high a boost as Tywin finally getting his daughter married to the King. Which seats his family on the Throne, which Tywin needed the blood tie to claim the throne. The only thing that gives Stannis and Renly their legit claim. He pulled a Lann the Clever essentially. Helping to pit houses against each other so he can rise up while making careful marriage alliances. Which even back then, Tywin had Frey in his pocket. That's just imo though. Stannis only has a daughter and is no real threat in the long run, while Renly is gay and debatable if he would do his duty and father an heir or not. As high as they rose, they leave no legacy in place. Should they die, who picks up their fight even? If Tywin dies, he has Jamie, Tyrion and Cersei. If they die, they're is Joffery, Tommen, and Myrcella. Then a host of other Lannisters in the background who would stake their claim. Baratheons don't really gain a long fight. Even Dany, with out an heir, has no long game plan for holding the throne.

This is a long way of saying "The baratheons got the most but the Lannisters were given an opportunity

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3 minutes ago, Universal Sword Donor said:

This is a long way of saying "The baratheons got the most but the Lannisters were given an opportunity

Not at all. The Baratheons were given nothing that amounted to anything. Proof is in the pudding. Who sits the Iron Throne, and who is either dead or got their butt kicked at the Blackwater? We know for a fact who got the most out of everything cause time showed us. By having the throne through the marriage to Robert, they had it all. They held K.L., the seat of power of the Kings. Which Stannis failed to take and claim. Claiming you are king, while not holding K.L. amounts to nothing.

Edited by AlaskanSandman
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