NBA continued- Replacement players and the flat earther Road Warrior

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

9 minutes ago, DMC said:

LOL, he clearly has the athleticism to defend on the outside and actually brings more physicality defending in the paint than, say, Orlando's current rim protector Mo Bamba.  Your inaccurate portrayals suggest you should actually watch him play rather than make broad conclusions after just looking at his height and weight.

In college. Again, this is about projecting him as a pro, and the handful of draft scouting reports I just looked at say basically everything I've written here, that there are concerns over his weight, strength and athleticism. He's around the same height as Porinigis, who weighed 40 pounds more than him coming into the league and there were concerns about his frame.

[DMC]

6 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said:

In college. Again, this is about projecting him as a pro, and the handful of draft scouting reports I just looked at say basically everything I've written here, that there are concerns over his weight, strength and athleticism.

No shit there are concerns about his weight and strength, but if you read any scouting report worth its salt it will also refer to the fact he is such a unicorn because he's extremely fast, quick, agile, and coordinated for his size.  Also, btw, most every scouting report you read still has him going in the top 3, so I don't really see your point. 

Anyway, again, his quickness and agility make him far more likely to handle NBA 4s than Banchero.  And you can say you're not comparing him to other prospects, but that's exactly what I was doing when I brought it up.

[Wilbur]

3 hours ago, Tywin et al. said:

...just saying I'd be worried about drafting him because I don't think he'll develop the weight and strength needed to play center in the NBA.

Send him down to NO to hang out with Zion for a couple of months - that ought to fix the size problem.

[Calibandar]

17 hours ago, Tywin et al. said:

Durant is out 4-6 weeks. That sucks. 

It does. Hope he it wont rule him out for mvp.

16 hours ago, BigFatCoward said:

But he looks like the most Fragile human being I've ever seen. 

Have you seen OKC's Pokusevski? They are very similar.

[baxus]

4 hours ago, Calibandar said:

Have you seen OKC's Pokusevski? They are very similar.

Pokusevski is what, 19 years old? It's unlikely he'll ever be the biggest guy on the court but he still has more than enough time to pack some muscle on.

[Calibandar]

And the exact same applies to Chet Holmgren, they look very similar, same 7ft height too.

Holmgren is a much more desired prospect though.

[baxus]

I didn't mean to imply that Pokusevski would turn into some superstar, just that he just might be a late bloomer when it comes to physical development.

[Rhom]

25 minutes ago, baxus said:

I didn't mean to imply that Pokusevski would turn into some superstar, just that he just might be a late bloomer when it comes to physical development.

But the point is; if Pokusevski at 19 has time to put on muscle… why would Holmgren at 19 not have the same capability?

[DMC]

So I just did my monthly google to check if Jonathan Isaac is ever coming back (been about two years now), and I find out he's publishing a book with Ben Shapiro's company on why he refused to kneel during the national anthem.  That's...one way to spend all the downtime, I guess.  Oh, and - you guessed it! - he's not vaccinated.

[KingintheNorth4]

I can't wait until the Bulls are fully healthy so they can get out of this slump.

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

4 hours ago, Rhom said:

But the point is; if Pokusevski at 19 has time to put on muscle… why would Holmgren at 19 not have the same capability?

Poku seems like a bad comparison for optimism. His draft day profile lists him at 195 while his weight to start his second season was at 190. 

[DMC]

11 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said:

Poku seems like a bad comparison for optimism. His draft day profile lists him at 195 while his weight to start his second season was at 190. 

I think you're missing the point.  Would it be ideal if Holmgren beefed up - significantly?  Of course.  But even if he doesn't that hardly means he can't make his game work in the NBA.  Your premise is simply dismissively and stupidly close-minded.  I'm gonna quote a lot from this Ringer article which I try to avoid, but it touches on basically most everything we've been discussing:

Quote

It’s easy to write that off as something that won’t work in the NBA. It doesn’t look like anything we have seen before. The 7-foot guard is new in the history of basketball and Holmgren doesn’t play like the few who came before him. He doesn’t have the athleticism of Anthony Davis and Giannis Antetokounmpo or the shooting ability of Kevin Durant and Dirk Nowitzki. He’s not blowing by anyone or raining jumpers from all over the floor. What Holmgren does is more deliberate and methodical. He’s leveraging his length by getting to spots where he can score, even if he’s not getting there very fast. It doesn’t look like it should work. But it has worked—at every level that he has played so far.

That’s the difference between Holmgren and Pokusevski. No one had heard of Poku two years before he was drafted. He came out of nowhere and averaged 40 percent shooting in 12 games in a lower-level league in Greece. Holmgren has been a household name in NBA circles since he was 16. He’s as blue chip as it gets. All the pedigree in the world doesn’t mean a prospect won’t bust. But it does make it easier to believe in one without an obvious NBA comparison.

There’s not a lot of downside to Holmgren. Go back to that list of big men drafted in the top three. The only busts (Okafor and Bagley) were players who can’t defend. Holmgren is averaging 3.6 blocks per game. The even more impressive number is that he’s averaging only 2.1 fouls per game while doing that. Younger big men who block a lot of shots also tend to be the ones who commit a lot of fouls. The ability to do the former without the latter is an indication of an intelligent player who can walk the thin line between playing with aggressiveness and discipline. It’s a great sign anytime a prospect is in the same statistical company as Mobley and Anthony Davis:

Holmgren is so long and smart that he doesn’t need great speed. He’s the rare elite rim protector who can also survive on an island on the perimeter. There may be matchups against Goliaths like Joel Embiid and Nikola Jokic where he struggles, but he can slide over and defend smaller players in those games.

He has a high floor and an even higher ceiling. But there’s no way to know how high based on what he’s doing at Gonzaga. We are entering uncharted waters. Holmgren is a sample size of one. Just because no one has ever dominated by playing like him doesn’t mean that he can’t.

 

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

23 minutes ago, DMC said:

I think you're missing the point.  Would it be ideal if Holmgren beefed up - significantly?  Of course.  But even if he doesn't that hardly means he can't make his game work in the NBA.  Your premise is simply dismissively and stupidly close-minded.  I'm gonna quote a lot from this Ringer article which I try to avoid, but it touches on basically most everything we've been discussing:

 

I understand the point, I just don't think it's going to prove to be correct. There's a good chance he's going to struggle a lot early on in his career and that could stunt his long term growth and it's specifically because of his weight and lack of strength. The article highlights how he's had success at every level so far, but that's because he probably hasn't faced any guys with the size and strength of a 28 year old NBA big. Maybe Holmgren does turn into something special at the next level, but I wouldn't bet on it and like I said before, I'd be nervous to use a really high pick on him. I wonder where he would have gone in last year's draft given that it appears to have been way deeper than this year's class. 

[DMC]

1 minute ago, Tywin et al. said:

I understand the point, I just don't think it's going to prove to be correct. There's a good chance he's going to struggle a lot early on in his career and that could stunt his long term growth and it's specifically because of his weight and lack of strength. The article highlights how he's had success at every level so far, but that's because he probably hasn't faced any guys with the size and strength of a 28 year old NBA big. Maybe Holmgren does turn into something special at the next level, but I wouldn't bet on it and like I said before, I'd be nervous to use a really high pick on him. I wonder where he would have gone in last year's draft given that it appears to have been way deeper than this year's class. 

I mean, yes, I wouldn't give Holmgren more than a 50/50 shot of becoming a star/foundational player.  Thing is though, same can be said for Banchero and Smith, so might as well take a shot on his fascinating skillset and subsequent high(est) ceiling.  That's been my point the entire time.

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

45 minutes ago, DMC said:

I mean, yes, I wouldn't give Holmgren more than a 50/50 shot of becoming a star/foundational player.  Thing is though, same can be said for Banchero and Smith, so might as well take a shot on his fascinating skillset and subsequent high(est) ceiling.  That's been my point the entire time.

I understand, and if it pays off you'll look like a genius, but the flipside is you might not ever be a GM again if in five years he's playing overseas, and I do think that's a realistic possibility. I guess it comes down to how much risk you're willing to take with a top three pick ( basically almost every projection I've seen has him going second or third). Personally I'd be trying to trade out of the spot if I could and there was a deal that made sense. 

[DMC]

Just now, Tywin et al. said:

I understand, and if it pays off you'll look like a genius, but the flipside is you might not ever be a GM again if in five years he's playing overseas, and I do think that's a realistic possibility.

I don't think it is - and neither do most analysts (or literally every analyst I've read).  Banchero does clearly have the highest floor of the three, but he also clearly has the lowest ceiling.  There's no discernible difference between Smith and Holmgren's floor other than the fragile/health concern.

Also, to be clear, I don't think anyone will "look like a genius" if he's taken first and pans out.  He's been at the top of his class (and subsequently the top of this draft) for about three years now.

[baxus]

15 hours ago, Rhom said:

But the point is; if Pokusevski at 19 has time to put on muscle… why would Holmgren at 19 not have the same capability?

Who said he wouldn't?

[Ramsay B.]

On 1/17/2022 at 5:33 PM, KingintheNorth4 said:

I can't wait until the Bulls are fully healthy so they can get out of this slump.

Good win tonight.  Nice seeing Caruso back, and Ayo playing more minutes and continuing to shine.

[Calibandar]

And in other news, yet another Lakers loss, this time to the lowly Pacers. Westbrook benched, understandably. 

The Nets beat the Wizards without Durant, Kyrie looks great but Harden went 0-5 from 3 and still doesnt look anywhere close to his prime Houston days or even the flashes we saw last year when he carried the Nets for months. He has to turn this around.

Embiid scoring 50 against Orlando, he's a clear MVP candidate but this team has to trade Simmons otherwise they are not gonna make it.

Dallas continues its win streak. Utah remains inconsistent by losing to the Rockets. Miami clearly has things sorted out.

Interesting to see Boston beaten at home by Charlotte, I really like this Hornets team. Lamelo is just very special to watch and Bridges is having a mega season.

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

I still don't get why the Lakers thought it was a good idea to bring in Westbrook. They always should have gone after Hield while maintaining more flexibility. Now they can't make any significant moves at the deadline because they can't offer up a first rounder until 2027 and don't have many attractive pieces unless they're willing to trade AD.