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NFL 2021: Full Speed, Eyes Closed, Can't Lose


Maithanet

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It's funny in that everyone was right. 

Burrow has taken a crazy amount of hits and sacks. And gotten injured. 

Chase has been awesome.

Since moving to his natural position sewell has been the 2nd best tackle in the league. 

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12 minutes ago, Kalsandra said:

It's funny in that everyone was right. 

Burrow has taken a crazy amount of hits and sacks. And gotten injured. 

Chase has been awesome.

Since moving to his natural position sewell has been the 2nd best tackle in the league. 

I wouldn’t go that far. He’s been pretty good, but he’s not even the best rookie OT. Let alone 2nd best in the entire league. Rashawn Slater has been even better. And no one has been as good as Trent Willams. 

Creed Humphrey has been the best rookie offensive lineman overall though. And the Bengals could have had him in the 2nd round. Even after trading back. :bang:

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8 hours ago, Kalsandra said:

It's funny in that everyone was right. 

Burrow has taken a crazy amount of hits and sacks. And gotten injured. 

Chase has been awesome.

Since moving to his natural position sewell has been the 2nd best tackle in the league. 

Yea, the players themselves have been awesome. The thing is, Bengals don't win half the games they have this year without Chase. The big issues on the Bengals OL is the interior, Burrow's propensity to hold the ball and Sewell doesn't fix either of those.

That being said, they have $65M cap space next year, 5th most in the league and if they don't go out and get some proven OL, I'm going to flip.

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42 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said:

Holy shit:

I'm not sure if I understand the metric.  Is this for when Donald lines up on the edge or just the fact he gets doubled a lot more because he pass rushes from the interior?  If it's the latter, then there are other elite-level interior lineman that get doubled at similar rates - and of course that's going to be higher than how much even the best edge rushers are doubled.  He still is by far the best interior pass rusher in the game - which is what the y-axis demonstrates - but, well, duh.

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Who throws a shoe? 

30 minutes ago, DMC said:

I'm not sure if I understand the metric.  Is this for when Donald lines up on the edge or just the fact he gets doubled a lot more because he pass rushes from the interior?  If it's the latter, then there are other elite-level interior lineman that get doubled at similar rates - and of course that's going to be higher than how much even the best edge rushers are doubled.  He still is by far the best interior pass rusher in the game - which is what the y-axis demonstrates - but, well, duh.

It's difficult to say without more info, but the point is he has the highest win rate among elite rushers despite him facing a double team two or three times as often as than other rushers.

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23 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said:

the point is he has the highest win rate among elite rushers despite him facing a double team two or three times as often as than other rushers.

Right, I'm just saying there's a qualitative difference between the tendency of an interior rusher to get doubled as opposed to an edge rusher because OTs tend to be better pass blockers than interior OLs.  The scatterplot is a good depiction for why Donald is still probably the most valuable defensive player, sure, no argument there.  Bet Watt or Parsons still win DPOY though.

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On 1/2/2022 at 7:52 PM, Tywin et al. said:

If you want to really understand Madden's influence on the game, just look at all these young coaches going for it way too often on fourth down.

One of my friends that I did a math major with did his capstone on the mathematics of 4th down.  The TLDR version is that it's almost always a better return to go for it on 4th and short than to punt it unless you are within your own 20 yard line.  Between 20 and 35 has a slight edge to go for it, and anything over the 35 yard line it is a pretty significant advantage to the offense.

Just like what happened to baseball about 15 years ago, football has finally come around to leveraging analytics to make decisions.  I know it was it jest, but Madden doesn't really have anything to do with this trend.

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4 hours ago, unJon said:

Watt locks it up with a sack next week, tying Strahan. 

Impressive that Watt has been able to do this despite missing three games this year.  Nonetheless it's irritating to me anytime a big record falls only in the 17th game of the season. 

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4 hours ago, aceluby said:

One of my friends that I did a math major with did his capstone on the mathematics of 4th down.  The TLDR version is that it's almost always a better return to go for it on 4th and short than to punt it unless you are within your own 20 yard line.  Between 20 and 35 has a slight edge to go for it, and anything over the 35 yard line it is a pretty significant advantage to the offense.

Just like what happened to baseball about 15 years ago, football has finally come around to leveraging analytics to make decisions.  I know it was it jest, but Madden doesn't really have anything to do with this trend.

I'd say it's 75% jest, 25% possible. It's not a primary driver, but I'd be surprised if the game had no influence on younger coaches. 

As for the analytics, it's helpful to have those macro numbers, but they can't always override roster, match ups and game situations. Failing to consider that is why a lot of NBA teams are failing to execute the ideal scoring strategy of only layups, FTs and 3's. If you're strong on one side of the ball and above average on the other you can go for it on 4th and 3rd anywhere outside the redzone, but if you're offense or defense are really weak you should probably always punt when you're on your side of the field.

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7 hours ago, aceluby said:

Just like what happened to baseball about 15 years ago, football has finally come around to leveraging analytics to make decisions.  I know it was it jest, but Madden doesn't really have anything to do with this trend.

Yeah it's clearly coaches finally accepting and relying on probabilities and not the video game.  On the latter though, while watching the Niners game on Sunday one of the sideline reporters was talking about how Shanahan grew up on Madden and that made him want to be a coach.  The reporter noted, though, that Shanahan emphasized actually coaching was entirely different than playing Madden.  No shit?!?

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So the WFT is announcing their new name/mascot/uniforms on February 2nd. I don't have any connection with the DC area, but of these

Quote

The team announced Tuesday that it will reveal its new name on Feb. 2, 11 days before the Super Bowl. During a podcast in September with ESPN's Adam Schefter, WFT co-CEO Tanya Snyder confirmed that the final eight candidates were Armada, Presidents, Brigade, Red Hogs, Commanders, RedWolves, Defenders and Football Team.

I think the Red Hogs is a pretty hilarious name, and the Armada or Brigade sound appropriately martial, so I assume they'll pick the ridiculously lame Defenders after all.

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20 minutes ago, Argonath Diver said:

So the WFT is announcing their new name/mascot/uniforms on February 2nd. I don't have any connection with the DC area, but of these

I think the Red Hogs is a pretty hilarious name, and the Armada or Brigade sound appropriately martial, so I assume they'll pick the ridiculously lame Defenders after all.

Wow that is a terrible list of nominees.  Keep the Football Team tradition alive!

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