US Politics: Manchin Shin Drinks the Blood and Cracks the Bone

[ThinkerX]

I would point out that the far-right does not have a smooth path to autocracy in the US.  Trumps reign was marred by substantial civil disorder, utter incompetence, administrative chaos, and massive criminal scandals. There is no reason to expect anything different from a Trump copycat. There is also that 'backlash' factor to take into account.   

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

52 minutes ago, Mlle. Zabzie said:

So, the issue is that law is divided into BigLaw and everyone else.  BigLaw itself has tiers.  If you can land a top-tier BigLaw job, your starting salary, fresh out of law school, knowing nothing, is . . . .wait for it. . . .$205,000 (plus bonus, whatever that happens to be), with stepped market increases every year until you make partner or give up in disgust (or get smart and take an in house position :)).  Other BigLaw starting salaries will be in the $150-180 range.  If not, you will probably start at more like $45-50K.  However, law school education is priced as if everyone gets the $200K entry level position.  

In order to land the BigLaw job, you either need to be in a feeder school, or in the top, say 10%, of a good local school, or maybe the top 10 of a less good local school.  I've sat on my firm's hiring committee for over a decade.  It is absolutely the case that we are overlooking people who would be good lawyers at non top-25 firms.  We've recently expanded our reach to the top 10% at non-local schools where we have had really good luck (Wake Forest, University of Arizona, BYU come to mind) for that very reason.  And I would rather have a top 10% person from, say Emory, than someone from the bottom half of, say Harvard (and many Yalies are useless).  But, on average, we take less risk hiring solidly from the top third of Columbia, NYU, Georgetown, Harvard, Duke, Chicago, Northwestern, Stanford, Boalt, etc. etc. etc. etc. than from, e.g., the same pool at Brooklyn Law.  And our peers are the same (or worse?).  In any event, that means that there are a lot of people who are paying champagne prices and ending up with lemon juice.

Yep, we've talked about this a few times, keeping in mind my dad was a law prof at a top 25 school and one of my cuz's is in the same shoes as your are at a top tech law firm in San Fran. He would say the same thing except they actually really target the top 10 students at smaller law schools with good reputations of producing lawyers who can thrive in tech, IP and engineering law, the latter of which I am not very familiar with.

Sidebar though, why is it that I always hear from people in similar positions as you and he that Yale grads are kind of worthless when Yale Law is basically always listed as the top law school (and the same thing is never said about kids coming out of Harvard, Stanford, Columbia, Chicago or your alma mater, the later three typically rounding out the top five)?

40 minutes ago, DMC said:

I'd just have to drop out when one of you assholes leaks my posting history.

Honestly the only posts that would hurt you are the ones where you explain why you're still an Orlando Magic fan. At least I have the built in excuse of being from Minneapolis and stuck with the god awful Wolves.

[Kalbear]

1 hour ago, ThinkerX said:

I would point out that the far-right does not have a smooth path to autocracy in the US.  Trumps reign was marred by substantial civil disorder, utter incompetence, administrative chaos, and massive criminal scandals. There is no reason to expect anything different from a Trump copycat. There is also that 'backlash' factor to take into account.   

This is really too wildly optimistic. What they found was that they could have likely made it were it not for a few people in key positions.

And they identified those positions and either defanged them or made them loyalists. 

 

[Varysblackfyre321]

14 minutes ago, Kalsandra said:

And they identified those positions and either deranged them or made them loyalists. 

Yeah but they failed that coup attempt and faced no repercussions so what’s the problem?/s

 

[Zorral]

44 minutes ago, ThinkerX said:

I would point out that the far-right does not have a smooth path to autocracy in the US.  Trumps reign was marred by substantial civil disorder, utter incompetence, administrative chaos, and massive criminal scandals. There is no reason to expect anything different from a Trump copycat. There is also that 'backlash' factor to take into account.   

What backlash?  Where is the backlash?  So far the only backlash from these ilks has been when -- now -- shoggoth advises vaccination and boosting, some scattered boos.

Not to mention the immense damage these incompetents have committed successfully in their mission to tear down all government except guns, and all the other damages just starting with the health systems, consumer protection systems, relationships with other nations. essentially murdering Cuba, the environment, education, the courts systems, the education systems -- and murdering over 800,000 US citizens -- and still counting as the death tolls continue to mount.

 

[Mlle. Zabzie]

41 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said:

 

Sidebar though, why is it that I always hear from people in similar positions as you and he that Yale grads are kind of worthless when Yale Law is basically always listed as the top law school (and the same thing is never said about kids coming out of Harvard, Stanford, Columbia, Chicago or your alma mater, the later three typically rounding out the top five)?

 

So, you know the old saying "every representative looks in the mirror and sees a senator, and every senator looks in the mirror and sees a president"?  My experience is that every Yalie looks in the mirror and sees a Supreme Court clerk (and every Yale grad that is a clerk looks in the mirror and sees a Supreme Court Justice).  It's really hard to explain - the education is all very theoretical (I'm told), and there is an attitude issue - like they are the elect and they don't have to actually work hard because after all they went to Yale.  I remember, totally anecdotally, having a second year out of Yale argue for a WHILE with me and a very senior partner about a pretty standard provision in an agreement wanting to rewrite the whole thing because he thought "it would read better."  We explained that "no, this is the language we use because this is the language that a court has previously blessed", and he was having none of it and had absolutely no shame in telling the very senior partner (brilliant Harvard grad) that he thought he was not that smart.  Had to squash him eventually - had not a single practical bone in his body.  BTW, totally different experience with Stanford grads (the most similar of the top schools in terms of size and selectivity). Those folks are brilliant and work super hard, and I'm usually pretty humbled to be working with them.     

[kairparavel]

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/congress/rep-mary-gay-scanlon-carjacked-gunpoint-philadelphia-n1286531

https://chicago.cbslocal.com/2021/12/22/illinois-state-senator-kimberly-lightford-carjacked-broadview/

 

Two completely unrelated instances of elected women, both Dems,from different states getting carjacked within 24 hours of each other.

Spirit of Christmas. 

[ThinkerX]

44 minutes ago, Zorral said:

What backlash?  Where is the backlash?  So far the only backlash from these ilks has been when -- now -- shoggoth advises vaccination and boosting, some scattered boos.

Not to mention the immense damage these incompetents have committed successfully in their mission to tear down all government except guns, and all the other damages just starting with the health systems, consumer protection systems, relationships with other nations. essentially murdering Cuba, the environment, education, the courts systems, the education systems -- and murdering over 800,000 US citizens -- and still counting as the death tolls continue to mount.

 

I pointed this out earlier in the thread. I will repeat it - again. 

For years now, my Facebook is flooded with far-right propaganda - posts, photos, and articles. Much of this, I believe originates with foreign powers hostile to the US (but that is beside the point). Up until a couple years ago, the messages attached to these items were almost always (99%) by conservatives who fully supported whatever idiotic meme or conspiracy theory was being promoted. That has since changed - the content of these articles and photos is much the same - but now, as much of a third of the posts, many apparently originating from republicans, are critical or contemptuous of said memes and conspiracy theories. Many are hostile towards Trump and far-right goals - and again, many of these people are republicans. 

Now, the usual response here when I post something like this is a blind denunciation about it being anecdotal or not being based on proper statistics.  Yet...

Way back when, the overwhelming majority of posters here thought Clinton would defeat Trump with little effort until mere weeks prior to the election. I was saying Clinton was in extremely serious trouble six months beforehand.

During the 2020 elections, most posters here thought the D's would carry the senate with a couple seats to spare. I expressed considerable doubts about this prediction. Instead, we have an effective tie.

This summer, I stated flat out the reconciliation bill would be either half the desired 3.5 trillion - or zero.  Sadly, it looks like I called that one right, though Biden appears to retain hope for some sort of BBB package.

I made all these predictions - and others - from reading the comments sections of assorted political articles and various memes being circulated.

Right now, my take is the far-right is actively alienating its base. Yes, there is a large, loud minority in favor of their goals. There is another...'faction' is too strong of a word...that is increasingly cynical and discouraged with their leaders. Make no mistake: these people ARE NOT PROGRESSIVES. However, they are unhappy with the far-right movement. If it is somehow possible to get past the polarization, then this...group...could be worked with on some topics. The only way I see that happening is aggressive, boots on the ground, door to door, one on one campaigning. 

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

56 minutes ago, Mlle. Zabzie said:

It's really hard to explain - the education is all very theoretical (I'm told), and there is an attitude issue - like they are the elect and they don't have to actually work hard because after all they went to Yale.     

I don't think it is. I had to work closely with a Yale law grad for a few months on a campaign, and while he was brilliant in many ways, watching him try and fail to do simple things like change a tire or better yet, do basic customer service things like greeting people and leading them to their seats at events was pretty funny to observe. 

[Zorral]

1 hour ago, ThinkerX said:

my Facebook is flooded

1) I believe nothing out of fb, which is why I've never had an account and never will; plus, you know, fb's algorithms show you what you already have looked at, remember, not anything elsel 2) a whole lot of us saw HRC was very likely in very big trouble, particularly after he boxed her in on live tv by looming and lurking and if she objected she'd be damned just like not objecting was damning -- plus her gdd emails, plus she was a shitty candidate and a whole lot of us knew she was, and said so -- she's just not a person, unlike her creep of a husband, who does campaign well,  and the media was on her all the time  etc. etc. etc.  I.E you're not ahead of the curve of all the rest of us who read and pay attention and have been doing so all our lives.

What one does see all over the place is shyte like this:

https://www.rawstory.com/trump-supporters-anthrax/

 

[ThinkerX]

18 minutes ago, Zorral said:

1) I believe nothing out of fb, which is why I've never had an account and never will; plus, you know, fb's algorithms show you what you already have looked at, remember, not anything elsel 2) a whole lot of us saw HRC was very likely in very big trouble, particularly after he boxed her in on live tv by looming and lurking and if she objected she'd be damned just like not objecting was damning -- plus her gdd emails, plus she was a shitty candidate and a whole lot of us knew she was, and said so -- she's just not a person, unlike her creep of a husband, who does campaign well,  and the media was on her all the time  etc. etc. etc.  I.E you're not ahead of the curve of all the rest of us who read and pay attention and have been doing so all our lives.

 

rewriting past reality will not work. Points still stand: the overwhelming majority of posters here - apart from myself and a maybe one or two others - believed almost until election night that Clinton would win.  Yes, I am only too well aware of what FB shows and why - however, the shift in tone on the comments the past couple of years is *real*.  Same for the 2020 election and the reconciliation bill.

I maintain that the far-right's odds of meaningful, long-term 'victory' are far less than many on this board proclaim. Demographics is against them, as are their professed beliefs, incompetence, and corruption. Short term victory - a 'Trump Clone' is possible, but the cited factors will destroy that administration from within and it will be meant with massive grassroots opposition, just as last time.

Not sure if this guy has any credibility at all, but the poll is interesting - particularly the 'change the way you vote' item.

Workers are rethinking their priorities and corporations are not prepared: Pollster Frank Luntz (msn.com)

[Varysblackfyre321]

2 hours ago, Zorral said:

shoggoth advises vaccination and boosting, some scattered boos.

You know if I hadn’t read about trump getting booed I wouldn’t have known you were talking about.

But for the rest of your post agreed

[A Horse Named Stranger]

5 hours ago, DMC said:

I'd just have to drop out when one of you assholes leaks my posting history.

I agree that Pressley would be better served in the Senate and has her eye on Markey's seat - he'll be 80 in 2026.

You say assholes, but that's not what I see. I see voters, staffers, and volunteers, Mr. President. 

We are just a few billionaires short to finance your campaign, but then again, that's old model. I say we go full micro donations.

As for the posting history, there's no photo evidence leaking you to necrophilia, seal clubbing, Sean Hannity or any other atrocity.

[DMC]

13 minutes ago, A Horse Named Stranger said:

As for the posting history, there's no photo evidence leaking you to necrophilia, seal clubbing, Sean Hannity or any other atrocity.

I've been advised not to comment.

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

6 minutes ago, DMC said:

I've been advised not to comment.

Admit that there's a point in space and time in the multiverse which you stole Eva Peron's corpse! What you did afterwards... not judging.

[Fury Resurrected]

4 hours ago, ThinkerX said:

I pointed this out earlier in the thread. I will repeat it - again. 

For years now, my Facebook is flooded with far-right propaganda - posts, photos, and articles. Much of this, I believe originates with foreign powers hostile to the US (but that is beside the point). Up until a couple years ago, the messages attached to these items were almost always (99%) by conservatives who fully supported whatever idiotic meme or conspiracy theory was being promoted. That has since changed - the content of these articles and photos is much the same - but now, as much of a third of the posts, many apparently originating from republicans, are critical or contemptuous of said memes and conspiracy theories. Many are hostile towards Trump and far-right goals - and again, many of these people are republicans. 

Now, the usual response here when I post something like this is a blind denunciation about it being anecdotal or not being based on proper statistics.  Yet...

Way back when, the overwhelming majority of posters here thought Clinton would defeat Trump with little effort until mere weeks prior to the election. I was saying Clinton was in extremely serious trouble six months beforehand.

During the 2020 elections, most posters here thought the D's would carry the senate with a couple seats to spare. I expressed considerable doubts about this prediction. Instead, we have an effective tie.

This summer, I stated flat out the reconciliation bill would be either half the desired 3.5 trillion - or zero.  Sadly, it looks like I called that one right, though Biden appears to retain hope for some sort of BBB package.

I made all these predictions - and others - from reading the comments sections of assorted political articles and various memes being circulated.

Right now, my take is the far-right is actively alienating its base. Yes, there is a large, loud minority in favor of their goals. There is another...'faction' is too strong of a word...that is increasingly cynical and discouraged with their leaders. Make no mistake: these people ARE NOT PROGRESSIVES. However, they are unhappy with the far-right movement. If it is somehow possible to get past the polarization, then this...group...could be worked with on some topics. The only way I see that happening is aggressive, boots on the ground, door to door, one on one campaigning. 

If you’re basing this off social media, and the content you’re referring to is content Facebook itself vowed to crack down on after January 6th, what makes you so certain it is a change in sentiment and not a change in social media moderation 

[ThinkerX]

1 hour ago, Fury Resurrected said:

If you’re basing this off social media, and the content you’re referring to is content Facebook itself vowed to crack down on after January 6th, what makes you so certain it is a change in sentiment and not a change in social media moderation 

First, from what I can tell the Gods of Facebook are doing very little moderating. Many, if not most of the photos and articles and conspiracy theories that trip off the relevant discussions 'skirt the edge' of what is acceptable community standards wise, or actively cross the lines. Many of the captions use Cyrillic font (not sure if Russian, or somebody else using the font to dodge the mods) or carry disclaimers about being 'parody' or 'humor,' though they don't really qualify on either count.

Second, while there are substantial dissenters in the comments, the majority remain rude, crude, unthinking conservatives. Problem with illegal immigration? Well, set up machine gun nests on motion sensors along the border, kill everything between them and the wall (and yes, they appeared to be serious). Rittenhouse is a role model, not a criminal. Fauci needs to be taken out and shot for treason. Same for BLM and Antifa. CRT is treason - we need to 'take back our schoolboards.' Trump was the greatest president ever. High gas prices are solely Biden's fault. Vaccine mandates are a means to control the populace and 'take away our freedoms', not destroy a deadly disease. Used to be statements in this vein went almost entirely unchallenged, period. That is no longer the case. 

 

Another thing that has struck me more and more the past year or three is the way the far-right and far-left arguments parallel each other. In some cases - media censorship being the one that leaps to mind - the different groups employ almost identical arguments. You could pretty much just change out the key words.

 

[HoodedCrow]

Trump was suggesting bleach injections, ivermectin, hydrochloroquine, and modeled yanking his mask off, had superspreader effects, infected buddies like, Chris Christie, and risked Biden’s health on camera, promoted certain vaccines at the same time as crackling over dem cities having more problems because they are dense. His office derided anyone who wanted to wear a mask. He is still saying that he will run again and is rewarding corrupt people. Umm, I kind of like Joe Biden, in comparison, and congress is messed up because of far right primaries, and a representation problem. It won’t be easy to fix if the left is so divided.

[Centrist Simon Steele]

6 minutes ago, HoodedCrow said:

Trump was suggesting bleach injections, ivermectin, hydrochloroquine, and modeled yanking his mask off, had superspreader effects, infected buddies like, Chris Christie, and risked Biden’s health on camera, promoted certain vaccines at the same time as crackling over dem cities having more problems because they are dense. His office derided anyone who wanted to wear a mask. He is still saying that he will run again and is rewarding corrupt people. Umm, I kind of like Joe Biden, in comparison, and congress is messed up because of far right primaries, and a representation problem. It won’t be easy to fix if the left is so divided.

And it always, somehow, comes back to the left.

[HoodedCrow]

I spent time on a left wing website. At least one person came every day and posted an anti Hilary screed with all the usual innuendos, and lots of cut and paste. It started in election season and ended exactly when Clinton lost. “Jeyne’s” punchline was always telling people to vote for Jill Stein. That worked. Ralph Nader worked. Mondale worked. It just doesn’t work in all 50 States, at present. 
I also live in Canada, where the conservatives get in all the time, if the left is split. I’m a progressive like you, but you can’t turn a ship of state quickly. Now there is a double dealing 50 th senator. We need better than Manchin.