Chess: Observing the Mating Patterns of King, Queens and Bishops.

[A Horse Named Stranger]

Going back to yesterday's Caruana game. The folks over at CB apparently agree with me that 22...g4 would've kept the balance.

Anyway, going to today's games. Alireza went for a sideline against Nepo in the Petroff with 5.c4, which shouldn't yield anything tbh. However I felt like he had achieved a tiny, a tiny bit of something, because Nepo's LS Bishop looked a bit stupid on d7 and I didn't immediately see a good way to trade off minor pieces (less pieces makes it somewhat easier to find squares for them). But I like really don't believe in 16.g4?! in any shape or form. Ofc Firouzja is a way superior player and knows better, but I remain sceptical.

[Plessiez]

4 hours ago, BigFatCoward said:

What's the biggest/most improbable comeback at a candidates tournament where it seemed the winner was set early on? 

Disappointing answer, but I don't think there have been any big upsets since the Candidates switched to its modern double round robin system back in 2013. 

Or any small upsets, either, really: the winner of the tournament in recent years has always been somebody who was in first place (either tied or outright) within a couple of rounds, and more often than not they've stayed in first place for almost the entire tournament.  (So if Nepo were to somehow lose from here ... well, it would be quite an achievement.)

That said, there was almost a big upset in that very first 2013 tournament: at the halfway point Kramnik had made seven draws and was three points behind Carlsen and Aronian, only to win four of his next five games and become sole leader after twelve rounds.  But Carlsen managed to beat Radjabov in round 13 to tie for first again, and then both players lost in the final round, allowing Carlsen to qualify based on his tie break.

Before the title reunification in 2007 the system used to determine who got to play a world championship match was ... well, a mess, but single tournaments like the current system have historically been a pretty rare way of selecting a challenger, at least since the 1950s.

Actually, thinking about it, arguably the biggest technical upset involves Kramnik again: he lost a match to Shirov in 1998 whose winner was supposed to go on to play Kasparov for the (non-FIDE-approved) title, but that match never happened. Instead, Kasparov decided his next opponent would qualify based on rating alone.  The highest rated player after Kasparov at the time was Anand, but he refused to play (I'm not sure why, but he was either already the FIDE recognized champion at that point or would become so later that year).  So Kasparov played the next person down on the rating list, who was ... Kramnik.

So arguably Kramnik managed to play for (and win!) the world title despite twice failing to qualify: he didn't beat Shirov and he wasn't the highest rated player.  Which is improbable enough that I don't feel too bad for him missing out in 2013.

(Probably not what you had in mind though, I know.)

Edited June 30, 2022 by Plessiez

[Plessiez]

12 minutes ago, Plessiez said:

The highest rated player after Kasparov at the time was Anand, but he refused to play (I'm not sure why, but he was either already the FIDE recognized champion at that point or would become so later that year).  So Kasparov played the next person down on the rating list, who was ... Kramnik.

Replying to myself since I realize I worded this badly: "later that year" means "in 2000, when the Kasparov-Kramnik match was played", not in 1998.  And having googled, Anand only become FIDE world champion in December, a few weeks after Kramnik beat Kasparov.  But Anand won the Chess World Cup (which was in part a qualifer for the World championship tournament) in September, before the Kramnik-Kasparov match.

(Bonus fun fact: I've seen it alleged in a few different places that Kramnik won a prize fund of a few hundred thousand dollars for losing to Shirov, while Shirov was told that he'd only get his share of the prize money for that match after playing Kasparov.  Which ... well, he never did.)

[Plessiez]

1 hour ago, A Horse Named Stranger said:

But I like really don't believe in 16.g4?! in any shape or form. Ofc Firouzja is a way superior player and knows better, but I remain sceptical.

The engines seem to dislike 16. g4 too (and both of Firouzja's next moves as well, especially 18. g5).  And Nepo definitely looks to be better now.  I don't think we're going to see second-half collapse.

(Apparently Firouzja's prepartion for today's game included staying up late playing hundreds of bullet games, which ... well.)

[Rorshach]

My word, Nepo just keeps pushing home. I'll admit I found it most likely that he'd fall off a cliff right about now, instead he seems to be beating Firouzja with Black.

Caruana has an advantage according to computer. No idea how easy it will be to translate that into a win. Ding is an ok player too.

[A Horse Named Stranger]

2 hours ago, Plessiez said:

Actually, thinking about it, arguably the biggest technical upset involves Kramnik again: he lost a match to Shirov in 1998 whose winner was supposed to go on to play Kasparov for the (non-FIDE-approved) title, but that match never happened. Instead, Kasparov decided his next opponent would qualify based on rating alone.  The highest rated player after Kasparov at the time was Anand, but he refused to play (I'm not sure why, but he was either already the FIDE recognized champion at that point or would become so later that year).  So Kasparov played the next person down on the rating list, who was ... Kramnik.

 

Not exactly what happened/how Shirov got screwed over.

Shirov was the player that qualified for a match with Kasparov, but given his lifetime score against Kasparov (it's basically worse than Nakamura's vs Carlsen), Kasparov couldn't find anybody willing to sponsor this supposed demolition job. Needless to say Shirov spend quite a bit of money on match that didn't materialize, and Kasparov didn't feel the need to compensate Alex for his losses. Then he started to went down the rating lists. And eventually he ended up playing Kramnik.

Edited June 30, 2022 by A Horse Named Stranger

[A Horse Named Stranger]

1 hour ago, Plessiez said:

(Apparently Firouzja's prepartion for today's game included staying up late playing hundreds of bullet games, which ... well.)

Ah the Carlsen tournament routine.

1 hour ago, Rorschach - 2 said:

Caruana has an advantage according to computer. No idea how easy it will be to translate that into a win. Ding is an ok player too.

Just came home froma  doctor's appointment and took a quick look. Yes, Caruana has pressure against the black k-side. Those pawns on f6 and g5 are not exactly the stuff of dreams. But Ding should be able to hold this. 

No idea what Nakamura is playing for. Yes, he has an extra pawn, but Rapport should never lose this in an observable reality.

[Rorshach]

Was just checking in again, and Fabi must have overpressed? Now he's pawn down. I would guess he can hold it, but it seems scary. And Ding is still an ok chess player.

[A Horse Named Stranger]

Uff, I dunno, as long as the rooks are still on the board Black can push. If black ever gets his rook on the 2nd this can get super unpleasent

Intuitively I'd go 69...Rc8

[A Horse Named Stranger]

Ok, Ding decided to improve his king first. Technical position with Ding being the one pushing... well let's just say Ding's technique leaves very, very little to be desired. 

[A Horse Named Stranger]

hum, isn't Re7-Rd7 with infiltration along the d-file now a real problem?

[A Horse Named Stranger]

And just like that it's just winning for Ding now.

Like I said, his technique is impeccable.

 

[Rorshach]

So after a few of us (not Horse, mind) sorta wrote off Ding after the first half of the tournament, he's now up to second and Fabi, who was fighting for first has done the "Classic Nepo" and is in free fall.

[A Horse Named Stranger]

Firouzja and Rapport essentially gifting Nepo 3 full points (thus far) was a bit too much.

Nepo is the tournament winner. Just too many points with too few rounds left. I mean, you could hope for Nepo collapsing and Ding collecting points, but that's just wishful thinking. 1.5 points ahead with merely 3 rounds to go.

[Rorshach]

Yeah, no real chance of Nepo blowing this. 

But, given Carlsen's earlier statements, we might very well get a Nepo - Ding WC match.

[A Horse Named Stranger]

Nepo with a quick draw against Nakamura.

Ding is absolutely bust against Radja's Nimzo Indian. It's just resignable.

And it's 0-1

Edited July 1, 2022 by A Horse Named Stranger

[Rorshach]

Radjabov also now within touching distance of second. 

This Candidates is absolutely bonkers.

[A Horse Named Stranger]

I just assume Ding (rightly) concluded that he would need to keep on piling up wins, if he wants to put any kind of pressure whatsoever on Nepo. And White v. Radja is as good as it gets in this field (in theory at least, in practice is just play a game against Firouzja and wait for him to autodestruct).

Edited July 1, 2022 by A Horse Named Stranger

[Altherion]

It's interesting how Ding and Nakamura had completely opposite strategies from a very similar position. Based on his recap, Nakamura thought about how to beat Nepo and realized that playing for a victory with black against an opponent who only needs to draw with white is usually a recipe for disaster. Thus, he decided to go for the Berlin draw and play for second place. On the other hand, Ding was not trying to play conservatively and lost.

The result is that Nakamura and Ding are currently tied for second with Caruana and Radjabov half a point behind and Nepo a full 2 points (!) ahead with two games left to play. It is mathematically possible for either Nakamura or Ding to catch Nepo, but it would mean that Nepo loses both games and one of them wins both (they play the last game against each other so there is no chance of a three-way tie). I think this scenario is extremely unlikely and Nepo will almost certainly take first.

On the other hand, the race for second is alive and well. Nakamura is ahead on tiebreaks, but Ding controls his own fate as he plays white against Nakamura. Caruana and Radjabov also have a game against each other (Radjabov plays white) and it's by no means impossible that one of them can equal or surpass Nakamura or Ding.

[Rorshach]

Second does hold significance this tournament (well, quite possibly), so that fight isn't as meaningless as it could be. Means there still some tension in the last couple of rounds.

As for a potential WC match vs Nepo, I have no idea who would do better.