Future of House Thenn

[Terrorthatflapsinthenight9]

House Thenn is an entirely new noble house that was created during A Dance With Dragons, the first house to be created with wildlings and an effort by Jon Snow to start integrating the Free Folks in the North and also to protect Alys Karstark from her uncle Arnolf Karstark and her cousin Cregan Karstark, with the marriage of Alys and Sigorn the current magnar of the Thenns.

The wedding was conducted by Mellisandre and as such red flames were put in house Thenn's coat of arms to honor the followers of R'hllor. Also should Alys' brother, Harrion Karstark the legitimate head of house Karstark and lord of Karhold die, house Thenn may legally end the new ruling house of Karhold with Alys' claim to her brother's seat.

What do you think that the future of house Thenn will be in the next books ? What role could Sigorn and Alys have in the northern storyline of TWOW and possibly of ADOS ?

Will they really end up inheriting Karhold if Harrion dies without children ? Or will they end up ruling another smaller land inside house Karstark's domain ? Or could they end up ruling another land outside of the Karstarks land ?

What relation will they have with the returning house Stark and other northern houses ? Also what relation do you imagine that Harrion Karstark would have with his brother-in-law if he gets freed and returns to the North to claim his title of lord and domain ?

[Nathan Stark]

38 minutes ago, Terrorthatflapsinthenight9 said:

House Thenn is an entirely new noble house that was created during A Dance With Dragons, the first house to be created with wildlings and an effort by Jon Snow to start integrating the Free Folks in the North and also to protect Alys Karstark from her uncle Arnolf Karstark and her cousin Cregan Karstark, with the marriage of Alys and Sigorn the current magnar of the Thenns.

The wedding was conducted by Mellisandre and as such red flames were put in house Thenn's coat of arms to honor the followers of R'hllor. Also should Alys' brother, Harrion Karstark the legitimate head of house Karstark and lord of Karhold die, house Thenn may legally end the new ruling house of Karhold with Alys' claim to her brother's seat.

What do you think that the future of house Thenn will be in the next books ? What role could Sigorn and Alys have in the northern storyline of TWOW and possibly of ADOS ?

Will they really end up inheriting Karhold if Harrion dies without children ? Or will they end up ruling another smaller land inside house Karstark's domain ? Or could they end up ruling another land outside of the Karstarks land ?

What relation will they have with the returning house Stark and other northern houses ? Also what relation do you imagine that Harrion Karstark would have with his brother-in-law if he gets freed and returns to the North to claim his title of lord and domain ?

Well, if there's any group of wildlings open to kneeling, it's Thenns, since they already kneel to their Magnar. House Thenn is new, so I doubt they'd be seen as anything other than upstarts and nouveau riche by the other northern Houses. The Manderlys were in the North for much, much longer, and many northern Houses still see them as outsiders. Still, if Alys bears a son for House Thenn, it'll have Karstark blood too, and therefor a claim to the Karstark lands and castle. So if Harrion dies childless, and Alys has a son and a claim, House Thenn will take over for House Karstark. As long as they swear fealty to the Starks in Winterfell, like everyone else. They might even be especially loyal to the Starks, as their position in the North would be dependent on the Starks sustaining Thenn legitimacy. Again, similar to how loyal House Manderly is to the Starks, because their legitimacy is derived from Stark support.

Tldr; the game of thrones is the same in the North as anywhere else.

[Floki of the Ironborn]

1 hour ago, Terrorthatflapsinthenight9 said:

House Thenn is an entirely new noble house that was created during A Dance With Dragons, the first house to be created with wildlings and an effort by Jon Snow to start integrating the Free Folks in the North and also to protect Alys Karstark from her uncle Arnolf Karstark and her cousin Cregan Karstark, with the marriage of Alys and Sigorn the current magnar of the Thenns.

The wedding was conducted by Mellisandre and as such red flames were put in house Thenn's coat of arms to honor the followers of R'hllor. Also should Alys' brother, Harrion Karstark the legitimate head of house Karstark and lord of Karhold die, house Thenn may legally end the new ruling house of Karhold with Alys' claim to her brother's seat.

What do you think that the future of house Thenn will be in the next books ? What role could Sigorn and Alys have in the northern storyline of TWOW and possibly of ADOS ?

Will they really end up inheriting Karhold if Harrion dies without children ? Or will they end up ruling another smaller land inside house Karstark's domain ? Or could they end up ruling another land outside of the Karstarks land ?

What relation will they have with the returning house Stark and other northern houses ? Also what relation do you imagine that Harrion Karstark would have with his brother-in-law if he gets freed and returns to the North to claim his title of lord and domain ?

Whatever happens, I don't think it'll be flash-in-the-pan. The big conflict of the Others will unite the First Men for the first time in thousands of years. The Free Folk will become more willing to make allies, and the North will become more savage, ensuring that both will survive the Long Winter.

[Free Northman Reborn]

Scale often gets lost in these discussions. House Karstark is one of the great Northern Houses. They rule perhaps 150k-300k people and mobilize an army of around 3000 men.

Like the Manderlys, they will have up to a dozen or so petty lords sworn to them in addition to scores of masterly houses (landed knights in southron terminology)

House Then have 300 men. And have a total population south of the Wall of less than 1000.

So in terms of scale, they are on a similar level to one of the petty lords in service to House Karstark.

Therefore, the most realistic outcome is that their marriage ties through a daughter of House Karstark allows them to become a new petty lordship sworn to Karhold. They get a new keep and a patch of land somewhere in the Karstark lands, and get to settle as a Karstark vassal house in peace.

 

[James Fenimore Cooper XXII]

Civil War will rage in the north until the people are dead.  The Northerners will never accept a Lord Thenn.  The Karstarks are already unhappy with the Starks.  And now a Stark bastard helps to wed one of their women to a wildling.  This is but one issue which will continue to divide the north.  The war does not end just because Roose killed Stannis.  The Norherners, lords and commons, will not accept a wildling owning the Karstark lands.  Jon Snow will be shunned by the people for his part in this and for betraying the Night's Watch.  Questions will be raised why he looks extremely pale and why his body is cold.  Soon they will figure out why.  He was brought back by the Others.  The fact that the Thenn and Alys were wed by a red priestess and now carry the banner of her religion will not be popular with the worshipers of the Old Gods.  They will battle and they will die.  The Others arrive and turn them all to wights. 

[James Steller]

Given that House Thenn is a new and small house, and given what Free Northman Reborn said about the Karstark population, I wouldn't be surprised if House Thenn ends up settling the Gift. Though on the other hand, Alys seems very confident that people will accept her new husband. If that was the case, it would almost be a callback to House Baratheon marrying into House Durrandon and taking charge.

[Nathan Stark]

13 minutes ago, James Steller said:

Given that House Thenn is a new and small house, and given what Free Northman Reborn said about the Karstark population, I wouldn't be surprised if House Thenn ends up settling the Gift. Though on the other hand, Alys seems very confident that people will accept her new husband. If that was the case, it would almost be a callback to House Baratheon marrying into House Durrandon and taking charge.

It does depend on what happens with House Karstark. There is a chance all the men of the House die for various reasons without producing any male heirs. It's happened before. House Thenn might have a strong claim to those lands and titles if the Karstarks die off in the male line.

[Curled Finger]

House Thenn is only new in terms of Southern Northern Houses.   This clan is as close to the real 1st Men as it gets.   They understand discipline and order in ways other Free Folk can not as well as old ways the oldest houses in the North have long forgotten.  The Thenns are fearsome in appearance and action and capable of mustering real loyalty out of simple terror.   Alys Karstark needs support and finds herself at Castle Black with nothing but a dying horse and a plea for help.   And excellent timing.  Underestimating the alliance between The Thenns and House Karstark would be foolish.  As noted above, House Karstark is capable of raising armies though few fighting men remain in the North.  That is loyalty which in return extends to the great House Stark--they are cousins after all no doubt with ties to the Thenn clan somewhere in the recesses of time. Like Jon Snow himself, Alys and Sigorn may be the throwbacks to the real 1st Men and their purpose for settling the North.  There is opportunity for unification of forces in this marriage that transcend simple politics.   Unification is all that will save the North should greater war come knocking.    

The Others are a threat few believe and none actually understand.   While we have no POV in either Alys or Sigorn it is entirely possible the Thenns, as closest neighbors to The Lands of Always Winter, have a piece of this Others puzzle and how to rectify it.  Spotlighting Sigorn so tenderly accepting Alys means something.  The North will always belong to the 1st Men and the 1st Men will remember.   All the Free Folk (jury is still out on Skaggos and Skane) have declared a King Beyond the Wall and many have sworn allegiance to The Nights Watch in varying capacities.   If any one place really needed an army it is the Nights Watch.  The Wildlings rallying behind Mance Raider then swearing allegiance to the NW indicates that as a culture they are ready for change.   Noble Alys accepting Sigorn heralds the acceptance all the North will have to give the Free Folk.  Or die.  

[Free Northman Reborn]

All the Free Folk south of the Wall together number barely 3000 (including women and children). Those  north of the Wall are as good as dead.

By comparison, there are between 4 million and perhaps 6 million people in the North.

Who the wildlings crown as King and who they ally with is inconsequential.

[Megorova]

House Thenn has no lands, no castles, no money, no resources. So they in no way will influence the politics or balance that is currently held in The North. If all of Alys' male-relatives will die, and she will become the rulling Lady of House Karstark, then House Thenn will have thru her an anchor in The North. Though without all that what belongs to the Karstarks, House Thenn is insignificant, unimportant and have no power over anything, so they don't and won't have any major influence on the further plotlines of ASOIAF nor on the bigger picture of the 7K's history.

The only meaningful thing that was accomplished thru the creation of House Thenn, is that Alys now doesn't have to marry with her uncle, or with anyone else. Alys was inserted into the plot to show to Jon that Melisandre's interpretations of her visions arent' always correct. Her visions do provide her with a knowledge about certain things - the grey girl on a dying horse, and the daggers in the dark, etc., what Mel saw in her visions, all that did already happened and will happen in the future. So Alys' role is to be a prove that Melisandre was right, when she said that there will be a hero who is an Azor Ahai Reborn, though it's not Stannis, how Mel thought. Same as the grey girl was not Arya. So basically Alys is there to make Jon realise that he is Azor Ahai Reborn. By her arrival to Castle Black Alys has already did her part. And then GRRM had to do something with her, so he married her to a Thenn. Though that's all there is, in a sense that their wedding was just a way to tie up loose ends, and to end Alys' plotline.

[Curled Finger]

7 hours ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

All the Free Folk south of the Wall together number barely 3000 (including women and children). Those  north of the Wall are as good as dead.

By comparison, there are between 4 million and perhaps 6 million people in the North.

Who the wildlings crown as King and who they ally with is inconsequential.

You made me do some research.   There were 30 to 40,000 fighters in Mance Rayder's coalition of clans.  Tried to use Werthead's calculations going midline with 35K representing 1% of the Wildling population.   Of course that would make Wildling population much higher, but it's possible that the numbers are inaccurate as many Wildling women are fighters.  Statistics are great, but we don't know how many Wildlings have died up to the current point in story.   There are Other causes of death beyond the Wall.  We know a few of Mance's people have dispersed to do their own things despite Jon Snow's offer for peace and sanctuary such as it is, but only roughly 2000 answered Jon's call.   Perhaps it's too early to say how many Wildlings are left north of the Wall, but it's certain the vast majority will head south eventually.  I would think that even those scraggly 2000 people at the Wall would be welcome allies for what the North is facing.

I am not arguing your numbers at all, only your dismissal of the Wildlings as a valuable resource to the entire North.   I can't see anyone south of Neck coming to the North's aid no matter how large their forces.  There could be some avenue for the insertion of one force as we saw in the other telling of the story, but I can't see the Stormlands, Reach or Dorne and most definitely not the Crownlands or Westerlands helping in any way.   The Riverlands are mostly depleted of fighters unless  the broken men wake up.  Best I can hope for is small regimes from everywhere or some foreign invaders coming to aid the North.  Unity is the only way this is going to work out for the North.  

[Free Northman Reborn]

5 hours ago, Curled Finger said:

You made me do some research.   There were 30 to 40,000 fighters in Mance Rayder's coalition of clans.  Tried to use Werthead's calculations going midline with 35K representing 1% of the Wildling population.   Of course that would make Wildling population much higher, but it's possible that the numbers are inaccurate as many Wildling women are fighters.  Statistics are great, but we don't know how many Wildlings have died up to the current point in story.   There are Other causes of death beyond the Wall.  We know a few of Mance's people have dispersed to do their own things despite Jon Snow's offer for peace and sanctuary such as it is, but only roughly 2000 answered Jon's call.   Perhaps it's too early to say how many Wildlings are left north of the Wall, but it's certain the vast majority will head south eventually.  I would think that even those scraggly 2000 people at the Wall would be welcome allies for what the North is facing.

I am not arguing your numbers at all, only your dismissal of the Wildlings as a valuable resource to the entire North.   I can't see anyone south of Neck coming to the North's aid no matter how large their forces.  There could be some avenue for the insertion of one force as we saw in the other telling of the story, but I can't see the Stormlands, Reach or Dorne and most definitely not the Crownlands or Westerlands helping in any way.   The Riverlands are mostly depleted of fighters unless  the broken men wake up.  Best I can hope for is small regimes from everywhere or some foreign invaders coming to aid the North.  Unity is the only way this is going to work out for the North.  

The ~1% rule applies to a medieval society with an agricultural peasant base that makes up perhaps 90%-95% of the population. They can mobilize that 1% fraction for war.

This does not apply to societies like the Dothraki where Khal Drogo’s Khalasar supposedly had 40k warriors out of a total population of 100k (not sure Martin though that one through), or the Ironborn - where George specifically stated that they raise a much higher proportion of warriors than the mainland, agricultural kingdoms. Hence their fairly large armed capability compared to their much smaller comparative population.

In the case of the wildlings we are explicitly told that Mance’s host is not an army, it is a migration of an entire population. So the ~100k Jon saw along the Milkwater was the entire wildling population. Men, women, old people and children. 
 

We are told about 30-40k attacked the Wall. After that host was smashed by Stannis, it dispersed. Many died in the cold and from the Others - if Varamyr’s example is a fairly typical one. Bowen Marsh counts just over 3000 passing through the Wall.

Around 10,000 men, women and children appear to be stranded at Hardhome with little hope of survival.

And another few thousand are gathered with the Weeper trying to cross at the Shadow Tower.

From what we’ve seen North of the Wall, those not yet South of the Wall are pretty much doomed, but even if a small number make it through, I doubt more than 10,000 living wildlings in total will make it into the North in the end.

That’s less than 0.25% of the North’s current population. Insignificant, in the bigger scheme of things.

 

[Terrorthatflapsinthenight9]

Some have brought the possibility of them being given the Dreadfort, or at least the main Bolton land around it, once the Boltons are beaten and most likely eradicated, as a reward for loyalty toward Jon or House Stark in general in the future.

[Floki of the Ironborn]

33 minutes ago, Terrorthatflapsinthenight9 said:

Some have brought the possibility of them being given the Dreadfort, or at least the main Bolton land around it, once the Boltons are beaten and most likely eradicated, as a reward for loyalty toward Jon or House Stark in general in the future.

They already have Karhold, though.

It would be really weird if GRRM allows Harrion to return to become Lord Karstark after all.

[Only 89 selfies today]

The future does not look bright for House Thenn.  The nobles of the North will never accept them.  The Crown will never give them the rank of nobility.  I would even say the North will go to war to stop Karstark lands from going to the Thenns.  The legality of the marriage will be challenged.  War follows if that does not work. 

[Terrorthatflapsinthenight9]

6 hours ago, Floki of the Ironborn said:

They already have Karhold, though.

It would be really weird if GRRM allows Harrion to return to become Lord Karstark after all.

Indeed but GRRM has a tendency to keep characters that we don't see or stop seeing in the fridge so they can have a purpose later.  

And by law he's still the heir to Karhold, which means that Sigorn and Alys can rule Karhold if he dies or if the Starks bypass the inheritance laws which could cause problems. 

It also depends of what could cause Harrion's death 

[TheLastWolf]

The War against the Others

[Terrorthatflapsinthenight9]

The interactions between Harrion Karstark and Sigorn would certainely be interesting, it would be quite the shock for Harrion to come back alive from the south only to find out that his sister is married to, and possibly pregnant of, a Wildling chieftain who's allied with Stannis and the Starks and has been made a lord during his absence.

[TheLastWolf]

On 9/8/2022 at 11:32 AM, TheLastWolf said:

The War against the Others

 

[Curled Finger]

On 9/7/2022 at 3:35 PM, Terrorthatflapsinthenight9 said:

Some have brought the possibility of them being given the Dreadfort, or at least the main Bolton land around it, once the Boltons are beaten and most likely eradicated, as a reward for loyalty toward Jon or House Stark in general in the future.

Before anyone dies and I expect many will die when the Others finally show up, there are 19 castles along the Wall.  Hornwood lands are vacant a ruler, a great deal could happen and will happen, but I would think 19 available castles would be the easiest place to start.