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US Politics: A Tale of two Joes.


A Horse Named Stranger
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34 minutes ago, Martell Spy said:

Sinema speech turbocharges primary challenge buzz
The effort to draft Democratic Rep. Ruben Gallego went into overdrive after the Arizona senator closed the door on weakening the filibuster.

https://www.politico.com/news/2022/01/14/sinema-speech-primary-challenge-527110

 

I wouldnt be against a primary challenge to Sinema at this point, but would worry it would end up with a pretty leftward leaning candidate running against her due to Sinema still managing to absorb much of the moderate voter base.  Now maybe we could get Scott Kelly to run and then continue NASA's twins experiment and see how time in space impacts one's senate voting habits.  That would probably amount to the biggest accomplishment in the Senate in the next term anyways!

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As I have shared before much to my chagrin I have somehow gotten onto the email list of a Trump fundraising organization. For the third time this week I have just received the following message:

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Together, we accomplished so much in 2021, and I know that we’ll continue to accomplish EVEN MORE in 2022.
 

You’ve always been one of my BIGGEST supporters, which is why I want YOU to be our VERY FIRST DONOR of 2022.


The very first donor of 2022 will go down in history as the Patriot who went ABOVE AND BEYOND to SAVE AMERICA from Joe Biden and the Radical Left, and I can’t think of anyone more deserving of this honor than YOUrganization.

 

It just boggles my mind that whoever is sending these out thinks that there are substantial numbers of people out there who can be fooled to think they can possbily still be the "first donor of the year" on January 14. 

 

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25 minutes ago, Ormond said:

As I have shared before much to my chagrin I have somehow gotten onto the email list of a Trump fundraising organization.

Trump people have seized control of all kinds of National and Local Republican Party communications, and what used to be mildly-annoying and shrill messages asking for money to support diverse local or regional candidates have become unhinged and imbecile efforts to hoover up cash for Trump personally and his campaign funds.

Why the National Republican organs have so easily been overcome and overtaken by Trump's people can only be seen as the continued deterioration in the party's National leadership, a continuation of the limp and lousy slates of Presidential candidates they have had on offer for the past two or three decades, and the weird focus on immaterial issues at the national level.

Who was the last real, statesman-like Presidential candidate the Republicans have offered us recently - Bob Dole and Arlen Specter in 1996?  I can't think of anyone since Dole or Specter who would potentially both provide leadership and operate the levers of national power in a responsible manner.

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52 minutes ago, horangi said:

I wouldnt be against a primary challenge to Sinema at this point, but would worry it would end up with a pretty leftward leaning candidate running against her due to Sinema still managing to absorb much of the moderate voter base.

While Gallego certainly is much more leftward leaning than Sinema, I don't see any reason he couldn't appeal to the exact same reelection constituency in the general as Sinema.  He's a very strong candidate in his own right.

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12 minutes ago, DMC said:

While Gallego certainly is much more leftward leaning than Sinema, I don't see any reason he couldn't appeal to the exact same reelection constituency in the general as Sinema.  He's a very strong candidate in his own right.

Yeah, I actually went to Gallego's website after reading Martell's post, but it was oddly bereft of campaign positions (at least from a few seconds search).  So it wasnt clear to me if he's so far to the left as to no longer appeal to a statewide electorate.  I wouldn't expect a replacement to completely match Sinema's constituency (and maybe thats a good thing), but as long as the replacement could garner the same votes that Mark Kelley did, then who cares. 

Edit: Just hit Squire level board Rank, after being a member since 2010.  I really got to slow my roll on posting.

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25 minutes ago, horangi said:

Edit: Just hit Squire level board Rank, after being a member since 2010.  I really got to slow my roll on posting.

Heh, sounds like you've already hit your quota for the year.

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Ohio Supreme Court strikes down GOP-drawn congressional map:

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The Ohio Supreme Court on Friday ruled against Republican-drawn congressional district map lines that would have given the GOP an overwhelming advantage in the next decade.

In a narrow 4-3 decision, the majority found that the boundary lines violated a voter-approved measure in 2018 that handed the power to draw political boundary lines to a commission, in hopes of stemming the practice of gerrymandering.

The decision comes two days after the state Supreme Court struck down legislative district lines on the same basis that the lines unduly favored one party.

If you're wondering about the court's composition, there are 4 Republicans and 3 Democrats.  The swing vote is Chief Justice Maureen O'Connor, a Republican first elected in 2002, who is barred from running for reelection this year due to mandatory retirement at 70.

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2 hours ago, DMC said:

Ohio Supreme Court strikes down GOP-drawn congressional map:

If you're wondering about the court's composition, there are 4 Republicans and 3 Democrats.  The swing vote is Chief Justice Maureen O'Connor, a Republican first elected in 2002, who is barred from running for reelection this year due to mandatory retirement at 70.

So...if enough of these district maps get redrawn, and the D's somehow put forth competent, likeable candidates, then there is a not so horrible chance they can cling to their house majority...by like two votes?

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10 minutes ago, ThinkerX said:

So...if enough of these district maps get redrawn, and the D's somehow put forth competent, likeable candidates, then there is a not so horrible chance they can cling to their house majority...by like two votes?

Well, depends on your definition of "horrible chance."  If the Dems are successful in court challenges - even if they run the table - that will still only result in an advantage of a handful of seats.  Which, yes, would improve their chances of holding the majority, but only marginally.  Say 10-15%.

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1 hour ago, DMC said:

Well, depends on your definition of "horrible chance."  If the Dems are successful in court challenges - even if they run the table - that will still only result in an advantage of a handful of seats.  Which, yes, would improve their chances of holding the majority, but only marginally.  Say 10-15%.

so, at this point for the D's, the absolute best-case scenario for holding onto the house comes down to the results of like 3-4 nail-biter elections featuring recounts and lawsuits. (barring a Trumpian candidate or three self destructing in a spectacular fashion)

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4 hours ago, Wilbur said:

Trump people have seized control of all kinds of National and Local Republican Party communications, and what used to be mildly-annoying and shrill messages asking for money to support diverse local or regional candidates have become unhinged and imbecile efforts to hoover up cash for Trump personally and his campaign funds.

Why the National Republican organs have so easily been overcome and overtaken by Trump's people can only be seen as the continued deterioration in the party's National leadership, a continuation of the limp and lousy slates of Presidential candidates they have had on offer for the past two or three decades, and the weird focus on immaterial issues at the national level.

Who was the last real, statesman-like Presidential candidate the Republicans have offered us recently - Bob Dole and Arlen Specter in 1996?  I can't think of anyone since Dole or Specter who would potentially both provide leadership and operate the levers of national power in a responsible manner.

I still think the Republican party is doing a slow dance of death. The people who it needs the most, grass roots volunteers and such, are giving up. The idiots are taking charge and will do what idiots do. At some point even the idiots may abandon the party, letting common sense rule again or the rank and file finds a new place to park votes.

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6 minutes ago, ThinkerX said:

so, at this point for the D's, the absolute best-case scenario for holding onto the house comes down to the results of like 3-4 nail-biter elections featuring recounts and lawsuits. (barring a Trumpian candidate or three self destructing in a spectacular fashion)

I don't know man.  If the election was held today (and especially this week which has been pretty damn bad on a number of levels), the Dems would have a minuscule chance of retaining the House.  But, it's not, and nobody knows exactly what the environment will be like in November.  All I'm saying is the court challenges, while improving the Dems' chances, can only do so marginally.

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56 minutes ago, DMC said:

But, it's not, and nobody knows exactly what the environment will be like in November. 

Look what just happened with BJ and his people ... with all the crackpot, negligent, toxic, sexual and otherwise corruption and outright malicious lying, nobody predicted that it would be THIS that takes him down.

 

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6 hours ago, Wilbur said:

Trump people have seized control of all kinds of National and Local Republican Party communications, and what used to be mildly-annoying and shrill messages asking for money to support diverse local or regional candidates have become unhinged and imbecile efforts to hoover up cash for Trump personally and his campaign funds.

Why the National Republican organs have so easily been overcome and overtaken by Trump's people can only be seen as the continued deterioration in the party's National leadership, a continuation of the limp and lousy slates of Presidential candidates they have had on offer for the past two or three decades, and the weird focus on immaterial issues at the national level.

Who was the last real, statesman-like Presidential candidate the Republicans have offered us recently - Bob Dole and Arlen Specter in 1996?  I can't think of anyone since Dole or Specter who would potentially both provide leadership and operate the levers of national power in a responsible manner.

Arguably Huntsman, when he entered and lost the primary aganst Romney. Ofc, since then he has also sold out his soul to the cult.

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1 hour ago, maarsen said:

I still think the Republican party is doing a slow dance of death. The people who it needs the most, grass roots volunteers and such, are giving up. The idiots are taking charge and will do what idiots do. At some point even the idiots may abandon the party, letting common sense rule again or the rank and file finds a new place to park votes.

I agree.  At the national level, it has been a slow decline into madness since I was in college.

I remember sitting through a campaign meeting on behalf of a judge that I was helping circa 1990-ish, and after two or three sensible old guys talking, this facile young guy with a face for television got up and spouted a bunch of inane platitudes that were not relevant to the agenda.  Everyone in the room looked around in confusion, since he didn't address anything meaningful.  And that is how I met Ralph Reed, and unknowingly saw the future of the party.

Things we cared about:  Budget allocations, tax collection from out-of-state corporations, zoning, and state pension investment audits.  You know, things that make it possible for a civil society to operate.

Stuff Reed talked about:  Family values, abortion, socialism, the threat of AIDS, and the war on drugs.  No one else in the room could have cared anything less about these corner case, marginal and highly divisive topics.  And everything was a personal attack.  But apparently this sort of Cultural Warrior garbage is what rings the bell at the national level.

It is, as you say, madness.  I stopped participating in political stuff other than local zoning questions long ago, as I want to accomplish things, not engage in a high school debate club Social Issues Night.

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1 hour ago, maarsen said:

I still think the Republican party is doing a slow dance of death. The people who it needs the most, grass roots volunteers and such, are giving up. The idiots are taking charge and will do what idiots do. At some point even the idiots may abandon the party, letting common sense rule again or the rank and file finds a new place to park votes.

In many ways they're dying a slow death, but their response to it is to end democracy as we know it. And even if many of our worst fears don't happen, they'll still be able to strangle the federal government through the Senate and courts. 

19 minutes ago, A Horse Named Stranger said:

Arguably Huntsman, when he entered and lost the primary aganst Romney. Ofc, since then he has also sold out his soul to the cult.

Romney circa 2012 was still a relatively normal Republican. And it's interesting that in the aftermath of his loss the party said we need to zig, but instead they zagged, hardcore. 

20 minutes ago, Wilbur said:

It is, as you say, madness.  I stopped participating in political stuff other than local zoning questions long ago, as I want to accomplish things, not engage in a high school debate club Social Issues Night.

Out of curiosity why did you still as a Republican then up until recently?

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47 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said:

Romney circa 2012 was still a relatively normal Republican. And it's interesting that in the aftermath of his loss the party said we need to zig, but instead they zagged, hardcore. 

Romney may well be the quintessential establishment Republican, but he did absolutely nothing to quell the increasingly extreme elements in his party in 2012.  Indeed, instead his campaign embraced and relied upon it.

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49 minutes ago, DMC said:

Romney may well be the quintessential establishment Republican, but he did absolutely nothing to quell the increasingly extreme elements in his party in 2012.  Indeed, instead his campaign embraced and relied upon it.

Sure, but if you're inclined to be generous he may not have really understood what was happening. I still don't think he does.  

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16 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said:

Sure, but if you're inclined to be generous he may not have really understood what was happening. I still don't think he does.  

Is it generous to say Romney's really that stupid?  Guess that's kind of an existential question...

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So there was a special election on Tuesday to fill Alcee Hastings' seat (Florida 20th).  Jason Mariner, the GOP nominee, lost 79 percent to 20 percent.  He lost by 59 points.  Still, he's refusing to concede and says he's going to file suit:

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“Now they called the race, I did not win, so they say, but that does not mean that they lost either, it does not mean that we lost,” Mariner was quoted by the Miami CBS affiliate as saying. 

He said he will file a lawsuit. Election officials say it takes 14 days to certify the results. Mariner, then, has 10 days to challenge them.

But Kyrsten Sinema and Joe Manchin think preserving the filibuster will yield bipartisanship.

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