Covid 44: The Sickening

[Zorral]

Don't say kids don't know.  Across the City yesterday, high school students walked out of school due to inadequate health conditions.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/education/2022/01/12/new-york-high-schools-walkout-cororonavirus/

 

[Zorral]

Subscription Only -- From "Bloomberg Tracking Covid-19's Impact On Trade -  Supply Lines" --  so no link.

Quote

 

The world economy could be headed for the “mother of all” supply chain stumbles.

That’s the warning from HSBC economists who caution that if the highly infectious omicron variant which is already swamping much of the global economy spreads across Asia, especially China, then disruption to manufacturing will be inevitable. “Temporary, one would hope, but hugely disruptive all the same” in the next few months, they wrote in a research note this week.

 

 

[LongRider]

4 hours ago, Derfel Cadarn said:

Yes! Get the animals to take the horse dewormer, then drink the animal piss!

So many options!  Having owned horses in the past I know that there are more dewormer products then just ivermectin so why stop there?  Mix and match: ivermectin, pyrantel, fenbendazole and oxibendazole, it's a dewormer buffet!  The horse/cow gets the benefit of the meds, the anti-vax idjit gets the piss.  Plus, with the large amount of piss a horse or cow can produce, enough for everybody!

[BigFatCoward]

Australian news anchors caught on hot mic saying what everyone else is thinking. 

Australian news presenters caught calling Novak Djokovic a ‘lying, sneaky a***hole’ in off-air viral video

https://inews.co.uk/news/world/australian-news-presenters-novak-djokovic-off-air-video-7news-melbourne-1396149

[Cas Stark]

I haven't been out to the grocery store since shortly before New Year's, where supplies looked low but not empty.  My brand of cat litter is out of stock online at Target, Petco and Walmart and has been out of stock for several days and I haven't seen 25 lb bags of cat food available anywhere either for months. 

 

ETA my local walk to grocery had zero meat today.  

[Zorral]

"The US Economy Cannot Remain Open"

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2022/jan/12/us-omicron-cases-effects-schools-supply-shortage-hospitals

So glad our N95 masks arrived last weekend.

More and more the experts are saying most people are going to get it.  Also seeing in places that Omicron likes to seat itself in the heart, unlike the others, in the lungs.   Have those here who are educated professionally in these matters seen that?

[Toth]

6 hours ago, Luzifer's right hand said:

Go on sick leave if you can pal.

Nah, I can't not go to school. All my students are there.^^ Those that are not quarantined that is...

Anyway, at least this situation with my colleague has resolved itself. After I fled from the room he very carefully read the instruction manual of the corona test with it saying clearly that you should treat every faint trace of a second bar as a positive test. So he wisely went to do a PCR test and today he suspiciously called in sick.

In regards to our shared pain: I recently read a very interesting article speculating about why the German-speaking countries are so densely packed with dense people. The author had a thesis that it's a combination of us being the origin countries of homeopathy, so we already had a rather entrenched number of people suspicious of regular pharmaceutical products and eager to follow random quacks. On the other hand the way we coped with our Nazi history might have created a mentality where people are quick to be suspicious when many are following the orders from above, explaining the insane Nazi-comparisons as some kind of dissenting from the mainstream hipster shit turned to eleven.

[Impmk2]

On 1/11/2022 at 8:19 PM, rotting sea cow said:

 

I've seen that. But what they describe is the effect of antigenic drift which is not what we are observing with SARS-CoV-2

We all thought we would be battling Delta and its descendants forever. Instead we got Omicron which come from another direction, maybe even from a second spillover after reverse zoonosis (or from a second lab leak?). With SARS-CoV-2 being such a promiscuous virus, it is not warranted that next variants will come from Omicron. It can perfectly come from that deer variant. Now, Omicron definitively has such competitive advantage, that is really hard to imagine something that could replace it, so maybe?

 

Not really sure where you're coming from here? Antigenic drift is precisely what we are observing with SARS-CoV-2 - the accumulation of point mutations in the surface antigen under selective pressure from host immune response - that's the textbook definition. Even Omicron with its relatively large number of mutations (and coupled phenotypic changes) are relatively small when compared to a virus which undergo antigenic shift - the flu can have 30%-60% total surface protein amino acid conservation (identity) after reassortment - Omicron you're looking at >97% vs the original wuhan strain, and more when you look at the other variants.

That the branching of phylogenetic tree is somewhat random / messy is probably due to a number of factors - this being a highly contagious virus which has newly emerged into a global population of 7 billion which is (at most) 24hrs travel apart giving it a massive number of hosts to increase its diversity in, and then populations walling themselves off giving descrete environments to evolve in. Variants are vying to outcompete each other and using several (often duplicated across unrelated variants) mechanisms to increase fitness  - becoming more human adapted by increasing transmissibility (through multiple mechanisms) - at the same time attempting to evade the host immune response. We've never had anything like this, both as far as global connectedness and speed of spread, and the ability to track a newly emerged highly contagious pathogen so granularly on the genetic level.

Long story short - I don't believe (and haven't read anything to suggest) there's anything intrinsic to the virus that means it won't long term settle into patterns seen by other related coronaviruses. How long this takes? That's the million $ question

[Impmk2]

I will admit I just reread my above post and immediately wanted to start arguing with myself against my first paragraph. But that comes down to the semantics of shift vs drift with regards to Omicron - and whether the old textbook definitions will hold. Almost all of the NAb binding sites are pretty distinct (otoh repeated exposure to vanilla does offer neutralisation...). But then would really come down to what % of change would be acceptable for drift vs shift? Flu its pretty clear cut.

Still, stand by the final conclusion.

[Padraig]

3 hours ago, Impmk2 said:

Long story short - I don't believe (and haven't read anything to suggest) there's anything intrinsic to the virus that means it won't long term settle into patterns seen by other related coronaviruses.

Sorry.  What is that pattern?

[Impmk2]

19 minutes ago, Padraig said:

Sorry.  What is that pattern?

A less scattered phylogeny - ie the next dominant strain branching from the previous one(s) rather than variants arising from all over the place, which can lead to wild swings in antigenic variance, drops in overall population immunity and leading to massive unpredictable waves*. Pretty much the end to the pandemic phase. I mean I get where rotting sea cow is coming from - that hasn't been the pattern so far - but taking the view that this is the way it'll continue for the known future, despite other  coronaviruses not behaving like this, is pretty nhilistic imo.

Further thoughts on Omicron - even if you do take it as antigenic shift it's quite possible (likely?) that this extreme change was only possible when coupled with its pretty dramatic shift in viral phenotype (entry pathway / preference for infection), at least while maintaining its transmission advantage. Not the kind of thing which can occur with any kind of frequency (here's hoping), though I have been quite wrong before.

*though pre-omicron waves were caused by increased viral fitness through increased transmission. However those were mostly prevaccine and prior to most of the global population having some kind of immunity.

[VigoTheCarpathian]

Anti-vaxx SiL and BiL (mid-40s and overweight) in Indiana now are down and very sick with COVID-19, as well as 2 of their kids (9 and 12).  Their oldest had it shortly after Christmas and recovered.  As she promised, they both got monoclonal treatments (2 days ago), but still experiencing serious symptoms.

The kids are doing OK, but not mild symptoms, either. It’s frustrating and heartbreaking and I don’t really know how to feel other than silently hoping the adults experience something that makes them regret their decisions but not enough to permanently injure/kill them.

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

Please let this be true:

Quote

Cannabis compounds prevented the virus that causes Covid-19 from penetrating healthy human cells, according to a laboratory study published in the Journal of Nature Products. 

The two compounds commonly found in hemp -- called cannabigerolic acid, or CBGA, and cannabidiolic acid, or CBDA -- were identified during a chemical screening effort as having potential to combat coronavirus, researchers from Oregon State University said. In the study, they bound to spike proteins found on the virus and blocked a step the pathogen uses to infect people.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-01-12/cannabis-compounds-prevented-covid-infection-in-laboratory-study

[Luzifer's right hand]

16 hours ago, Toth said:

Nah, I can't not go to school. All my students are there.^^ Those that are not quarantined that is...

Anyway, at least this situation with my colleague has resolved itself. After I fled from the room he very carefully read the instruction manual of the corona test with it saying clearly that you should treat every faint trace of a second bar as a positive test. So he wisely went to do a PCR test and today he suspiciously called in sick.

In regards to our shared pain: I recently read a very interesting article speculating about why the German-speaking countries are so densely packed with dense people. The author had a thesis that it's a combination of us being the origin countries of homeopathy, so we already had a rather entrenched number of people suspicious of regular pharmaceutical products and eager to follow random quacks. On the other hand the way we coped with our Nazi history might have created a mentality where people are quick to be suspicious when many are following the orders from above, explaining the insane Nazi-comparisons as some kind of dissenting from the mainstream hipster shit turned to eleven.

Good for you.

I have kinda given up on society at this point to be honest but I'm not someone who actually does something that it actually needs to run.

[RhaenysBee]

So we are seeing a steady surge in number of daily cases and being warned that omicron is going to explode within days. We are at 30% positivity rate but it’s important to bear in mind that generally few tests are done. 

It was also announced that quarantine protocol has changed. It’s 7 days now, and you can leave quarantine after 5 days with a negative test if you are asymptotic. 

I don’t exactly get it, because on the one hand you are told that we are in the hallway of herd immunity and soon it won’t be absolutely necessary to know if you have a cold, regular flu or covid, because they will all cause similar illness. On the other hand, we are also told that even a sneeze can imply covid so rapid testing has become an ever valuable asset to make sure the basic healthcare system isn’t overwhelmed.

So there’s that, whatever any of it means or implies. I certainly have no idea anymore. 

[Padraig]

12 hours ago, Impmk2 said:

A less scattered phylogeny - ie the next dominant strain branching from the previous one(s) rather than variants arising from all over the place, which can lead to wild swings in antigenic variance, drops in overall population immunity and leading to massive unpredictable waves*. Pretty much the end to the pandemic phase.

Thanks.  That makes sense.  Certainly the amazing transmission of Omicron helped it massively.  I would imagine that the next variant would have to keep that advantage (and thus be close to Omicron).  But as you say, nothing is guaranteed.

10 hours ago, VigoTheCarpathian said:

Anti-vaxx SiL and BiL (mid-40s and overweight) in Indiana now are down and very sick with COVID-19, as well as 2 of their kids (9 and 12).  Their oldest had it shortly after Christmas and recovered.  As she promised, they both got monoclonal treatments (2 days ago), but still experiencing serious symptoms.

Got to love the pro-monoclonal treatment, anti-vaccine viewpoint.  We don't trust Big Pharma, except when we do.  I suppose monoclonal treatments have been around for a few decades but the specific anti-COVID treatment is obviously very new.

3 hours ago, RhaenysBee said:

I don’t exactly get it, because on the one hand you are told that we are in the hallway of herd immunity and soon it won’t be absolutely necessary to know if you have a cold, regular flu or covid, because they will all cause similar illness. On the other hand, we are also told that even a sneeze can imply covid so rapid testing has become an ever valuable asset to make sure the basic healthcare system isn’t overwhelmed.

There is a viewpoint that while having COVID previously doesn't stop you getting Omicron at all, having Omicron may make it much less likely that you get another dose of COVID.  So if we get over this peak, there may finally be some daylight.  (Especially if, as Impmk2 was discussing, the next variant isn't very different from what has come before).

This Fortune article below touches on it.  Another reason not to start looking at a 4th dose is because so many people will end up with Omicron, it would be a waste.

https://fortune.com/2022/01/12/ema-who-covid-fourth-boosters-pfizer-flu-endemic/

Quote

In line with a sentiment that is starting to be expressed by European leaders, Cavaleri also said the rapid spread of the Omicron variant might help bring the continent out of the pandemic. "With the increase of immunity in population—and with Omicron, there will be a lot of natural immunity taking place on top of vaccination—we will be fast moving toward a scenario that will be closer to endemicity," he said.

Bill Gates has said something similar.  So this wave may be very damaging in some countries but there is some hope.

It is a little shocking to see Australia now join the "worst in class" list when it comes to COVID cases.  Almost like a pure L shaped curve.  But still, countries are beginning to come down from their peak.  A number in Europe and Canada maybe (Canada has done a lot better than most Western countries if so)?  Although, fatalities continue to rise depressingly across all those countries.  And the US is significantly above its previous hospitalisation peak now.

[Fragile Bird]

Speaking of Canada, deaths have been rising. I think there were 62 in Quebec the other day, and 42 in Ontario. 
 

eta: I see the rolling average for Canada is 66, but if you Google Covid deaths in Canada you can see that’s a sharp increase. On the other hand, we’ve had less than 32,000 deaths overall, which would be as if the US had had about 270,000. And you know how I compare Canada to Poland, because of the near-identical populations, and I saw a news report that they crossed 100,000 deaths the other day.

[RhaenysBee]

52 minutes ago, Padraig said:

4 hours ago, RhaenysBee said:

Expand  

There is a viewpoint that while having COVID previously doesn't stop you getting Omicron at all, having Omicron may make it much less likely that you get another dose of COVID.  So if we get over this peak, there may finally be some daylight.  (Especially if, as Impmk2 was discussing, the next variant isn't very different from what has come before).

Well… there used to be a viewpoint that having covid previously and being vaccinated twice was the top level of protection one could possibly have against covid in the future. Later twice became three times. And yet I can still get omicron. So why exactly am I supposed to believe that if I have three shots of vaccine a previous alpha infection and then a hypothetical omicron one, I’ll be protected against the hypothetical epsilon variant of 2023 January? Nobody has any real idea, just as nobody had any real idea that two vaccines and one infection wasn’t enough against delta and even three vaccines and one infection aren’t enough against omicron.  I don’t mean to be negative, it’s just a case of calling wolf one too many times. I just can’t find the faith in myself to believe that this particular viewpoint will hold up in 4-6 months’ time. 

[Clueless Northman]

1 hour ago, RhaenysBee said:

and even three vaccines and one infection aren’t enough against omicron.  

The number of previous doses or infections doesn't really matter with Omicron. It replicates so fast that only the amount of antibodies matter, and your odds of being infected and sick are lowered considerably if you got your last taste of immunity a few weeks ago - having had a 2nd dose 3 weeks ago will protect you more than having had a 3rd dose 4 months ago. Previous exposures help with the core layer of the immune system - T and B cells -, not with the outside layer of antibodies; they can react reasonably fast to mass-produce antibodies and help you get over Omicron infection in a few days, instead of having to go to the hospital.

Hopefully, getting Omicron after vaccine doses will have a similar, and possibly way better, effect as getting mixed vaccines - first Pfizer, then Moderna, or first AZ then Pfizer: the immune system will better react to a slightly mutated virus.

[Larry of the Lawn]

13 hours ago, Tywin et al. said:

Please let this be true:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-01-12/cannabis-compounds-prevented-covid-infection-in-laboratory-study

Just throwing it out there but me and my grandma are the only two people in my entire family who haven't got covid yet (that we know of).  Both full vaxxed and boosted, but grandma also eats an edible before bed and sometimes after her radiation treatments.  Just sayin'.