rotting sea cow Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 18 hours ago, Zorral said: "‘I have no intention of getting infected’: understanding Omicron’s severity Like for many there is a choice. I respect many of these scientists and experts, but they really need to get a dose of reality. They have been sitting their arses in their comfy home offices, shitting their pants while learning about the virus, pontificating about measures and restrictions while billions of workers had to go out to earn a living and make this dysfunctional society to function, somehow, without getting any recognition. They have been driving the trucks, collecting the garbage, delivering the mail and parcels, packaging and processing food, manning the supermarkets and other essential shops, etc, etc, etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heartofice Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 27 minutes ago, BigFatCoward said: Admissions, its down 2% on previous week, but latest data is showing 11th Jan. https://data.spectator.co.uk/ Has data from the 14th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Luzifer's right hand Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 28 minutes ago, rotting sea cow said: Like for many there is a choice. I respect many of these scientists and experts, but they really need to get a dose of reality. They have been sitting their arses in their comfy home offices, shitting their pants while learning about the virus, pontificating about measures and restrictions while billions of workers had to go out to earn a living and make this dysfunctional society to function, somehow, without getting any recognition. They have been driving the trucks, collecting the garbage, delivering the mail and parcels, packaging and processing food, manning the supermarkets and other essential shops, etc, etc, etc. If you can afford it it is currently better to become unemployed I believe. Two of my friends made the same decision. We all had decent paying jobs that were not affected negatively income wise by the pandemic and the reduction of social life and traveling saved all of us quite a bit of money. None of us had a job that can be done from home so we had to interact with anti-measure people on a daily basis and it has taken it's toll. It feels really good to only Interact with people you want to interact with. Other people are the main problem of the pandemic for most of my close friends not the virus itself which still seems manageable. If they could just stfu and follow the rules at least at work but not. I never started a single conversation at work about COVID after the first lockdown and someone told me that the virus does not exist at work while an uncle was in the hospital with it. One of my friends worked at a retirement home and he quit when it was uncovered that a lot of his co-workers faked the tests and nothing was done about it. Edit: I'm actually still friends with one person who refuses to vaccinate and mutual stfu about it works. But it has to be mutual to work for me "just ignore them" does not work for me. He is also the only anti-vaxxers I know that masks probably and does not ignore the unenforceable lockdown for the unvaccinated that we still have on paper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Week Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Padraig Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 3 hours ago, Heartofice said: I'm still not clear as to whether Omicron is actually milder or that the UK simply has very high level of boosters in the elderly which has meant that this winter wave has not been very serious. It does make a lot of the predictions in December look like doom mongering however. That is probably a little harsh. We knew so little about Omicron in early December that any reasonable government had to take precautions. Prepare for the worst, hope for the best. Sure, if there were some people that said they were convinced that Omicon was our doom, they clearly went way over the top but most people I read simply argued that there was a huge amount of uncertainty, transmission looked really bad but there was hope around severity. And there was some effect. The fatality rate did double in the UK to around 1800 a week (after 4 months being stable at a rather high rate). Hospitalisations almost tripled. Although both seem to have stabilised now. ICU was the only stable figure previously (for whatever reason). Things generally seem to be on a positive direction in Western Europe (and the US, assuming case figures are being reported properly, cases are on the decline. Canada weirdly is already declining after never seeing the kind of growth in Western Europe). France, Italy, Ireland all seem to have peaked (although we have just started to include antigen positives in our figures, which messes up our trends). But yes, as Filippa noted, Omicron is generally moving East (Germany is only now seeing a surge. Russia has just returned to growth, Romania, Bulgaria started to grow in early January). With Greece/Cyprus/Malta being the exceptions, already on the downwards path. But Omicon definitely hasn't been without cost. Fatality rates have gone up nearly everywhere that has been hit by this wave. Except Netherlands who implemented probably the harshest restrictions this time and saw its fatality rate collapse to very low levels (Its cases haven't peaked yet though). I did think the New Yorker article posted was quite good for context. 2 hours ago, rotting sea cow said: 1. There is growing concern about BA.2 (also dubbed "stealth" Omicron) rising in prevalence in a number of countries (e.g. Denmark). Interesting that you say Denmark. They seemed to have peaked a week ago but have started to increase again. Hopefully an anomoly and not driven by BA.2! Interesting on Israel also. Not great results apparently for the 4th dose. We'll see what further results show. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Week Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 40 minutes ago, Padraig said: That is probably a little harsh. We knew so little about Omicron in early December that any reasonable government had to take precautions. Prepare for the worst, hope for the best. Frankly, pretty tone deaf and disrespectful to Raja, Pebbles, and other that are directly impacted through work or family to the relentlessly overloaded healthcare system. Going on 2 years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heartofice Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 9 minutes ago, Week said: Frankly, pretty tone deaf and disrespectful to Raja, Pebbles, and other that are directly impacted through work or family to the relentlessly overloaded healthcare system. Going on 2 years. 54 minutes ago, Padraig said: That is probably a little harsh. We knew so little about Omicron in early December that any reasonable government had to take precautions. Prepare for the worst, hope for the best. Sure, if there were some people that said they were convinced that Omicon was our doom, they clearly went way over the top but most people I read simply argued that there was a huge amount of uncertainty, transmission looked really bad but there was hope around severity. I don't think it is especially harsh. There was an element of uncertainty around Omicron, but when it hit the UK there was already quite a bit of evidence that it wouldn't be having anything like the effects previous waves had. Data from South Africa suggested it was milder, but more than that, the UK has a very highly vaccinated population and was heavily boosted by this time as well, and there was good evidence to suggest vaccines would hold up against Omicron. It should have been quite clear that even though case numbers were high, it wasn't going to translate into serious disease and deaths in anything like the numbers we'd seen previously. There were certainly a number of commentators out there suggesting that Omicron will be the worst yet, we had staggering numbers of deaths and hospitalisations predicted, terrifying numbers. It didn't happen, and was never likely to happen. Yet again the actual numbers didn't correlate to almost any of the Sage models that were put out, which only ever seem to be there to demonstrate worst case scenarios. 1 hour ago, Padraig said: And there was some effect. The fatality rate did double in the UK to around 1800 a week (after 4 months being stable at a rather high rate). Hospitalisations almost tripled. Although both seem to have stabilised now. ICU was the only stable figure previously (for whatever reason). There was some effect, but it was nowhere near what was predicted, even with staggering numbers of cases. The death numbers were barely above Octobers, and you'd expect them to be higher over December and Jan. Hospitalisation numbers went up, but incidental admissions doubled, being almost half of all Covid admissions. Patients in critical beds was actually lower than in October. Of course there is some value to doom mongering, it controls people and stops them from socialising, which isn't really factored into SAGE models. However, that doesn't mean that doom mongering doesn't go on, or we shouldn't call it out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Week Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 More from the failed states of America: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BigFatCoward Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 438 deaths today so let's not all get to excited about the falling case numbers. Admissions are pretty steady from everything I can find, and deaths are still ticking up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heartofice Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 25 minutes ago, BigFatCoward said: 438 deaths today so let's not all get to excited about the falling case numbers. Admissions are pretty steady from everything I can find, and deaths are still ticking up. Steadily falling yeah Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BigFatCoward Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 34 minutes ago, Heartofice said: Steadily falling yeah They have been between 1900 and 2300 for about 2 weeks. I think you are looking at the wrong stat. They are falling very very slightly but it's more of a plateau. https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/healthcare If you look at the data for the last month, in no way can that be said to be 'steadily falling'. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zorral Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 6 hours ago, rotting sea cow said: I respect many of these scientists and experts, but they really need to get a dose of reality You didn't read the article. The writer is on the front lines, treating the infected unvaccinated every day, as he's a doctor. He was speaking, as a fully vaccinated individual, working with covid all day every day, why he expects he won't get it, because he continues all the safety protocols all the time, such as masking, and this is how one doesn't get infected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paxter Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 4 hours ago, Padraig said: Canada weirdly is already declining after never seeing the kind of growth in Western Europe). Unfortunately, you can't look at the Canadian case data anymore as the large provinces are no longer providing public testing. The severity of the pandemic in Canada is now visible only through positive testing rates and hospitalization data. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zorral Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 Someone very near and dear, only 46, has just died of a heart attack. As far as we all knew, he was very healthy, as well as fully vaxxed, didn't smoke, was definitely fit and not overweight, had no issues -- but he hadn't been able to see a doctor for over two years, as whatever health care was available in his locale got shut down -- including the single pharmacy, and the nearest hospital was a 100 + miles away, and it is both overwhelmed with unvaccinated covid patients, and is in the process of also being shut down by the 'health' conglom that owns it. If he'd been able to see a doctor regularly, if an ambulance and a hospital were decently available, maybe? he wouldn't have died? Yes, with covid and climate change, he was under enormous stress. He leaves behind a wife and 3 young children. She's not going to be able to keep their organic farm operation running now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Padraig Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 27 minutes ago, Zorral said: Someone very near and dear, only 46, has just died of a heart attack. I'm very sorry to hear that Zorral. Terrible for everyone that knew him. 14 hours ago, The Anti-Targ said: The Sunday test has come back negative, the friend got her day 5 post exposure test taken today, so by Thursday hopefully we will know if we can mix in polite company again. And good luck with it Anti-Targ! 48 minutes ago, Paxter said: Unfortunately, you can't look at the Canadian case data anymore as the large provinces are no longer providing public testing. The severity of the pandemic in Canada is now visible only through positive testing rates and hospitalization data. Yikes. Thanks. 3 hours ago, Heartofice said: There was an element of uncertainty around Omicron, but when it hit the UK there was already quite a bit of evidence that it wouldn't be having anything like the effects previous waves had. I don't really buy that. Too much like hindsight 20/20 vision. People were relucant to make too many comparisons with South Africa since there was a very high percentage (70%?) that were believed previously infected. People were wondering whether previous infection generated better protection than vaccination. The population was younger etc. Essentially though, the restrictions put in place in the UK were mild. They aren't going to last long. Given the minor inconvenience versus the potential to save lives, I can't see how people could bemoan the protections? There could easily have been a case for more restrictions, given the levels of hospitalisation/deaths weren't low coming into Omicron. You can criticise people on the fringes who cried Doom in December but I would be even more critical of the people who are saying now that the reaction was excessive. It does seem heartless. And your point about the benefits of doom mongering is a fair one also! I meant to mention it. You really don't want to underestimate a pandemic wave (although non-medical people have done it all over the place). 3 hours ago, Heartofice said: The death numbers were barely above Octobers, and you'd expect them to be higher over December and Jan. For the UK, the fatality rate is almost double the October rate. It is at levels last experienced at the end of Feb 2021. The New Yorker article discusses "incidental" COVID. It is not as minor as the word suggests. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fragile Bird Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 2 hours ago, BigFatCoward said: 438 deaths today so let's not all get to excited about the falling case numbers. Admissions are pretty steady from everything I can find, and deaths are still ticking up. Deaths are rising in Canada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heartofice Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 1 hour ago, BigFatCoward said: They have been between 1900 and 2300 for about 2 weeks. I think you are looking at the wrong stat. They are falling very very slightly but it's more of a plateau. https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/healthcare If you look at the data for the last month, in no way can that be said to be 'steadily falling'. Maybe we are looking in different places, those stats only show up to the 11th in the UK and the stats i'm looking at show up to the 16th England. Hospitalisations are falling however. 20 minutes ago, Padraig said: For the UK, the fatality rate is almost double the October rate. It is at levels last experienced at the end of Feb 2021. I don't know where you are getting that unless you take the lowest number in October and put it up against the highest number in Jan. The peak in October was 191 deaths a day and it's now at around 244. For context in Jan last year it was about 1300 a day. Even then, the BBCs head of statistics has said that much of the increase could be down to 'coincidental' deaths, rather than people dying of covid. I know the whole 'with not from' trope is something that got rolled out in previous waves by anti covid peeps, but in previous waves it was an irrelevance. Now it isn't. I've read that New Yorker article and I'm not entirely convinced it means we can just ignore incidental admissions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Anti-Targ Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 4 hours ago, Padraig said: 18 hours ago, The Anti-Targ said: The Sunday test has come back negative, the friend got her day 5 post exposure test taken today, so by Thursday hopefully we will know if we can mix in polite company again. And good luck with it Anti-Targ! Thanks. The day 5 test for the friend came back negative today. And I believe they are not required to have any more tests unless they become symptomatic (which they are not). So we're in the clear, just in time for me to meet up with my new DnD group (Pathfinder actually) for session 1 of the new campaign tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Padraig Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 4 hours ago, Heartofice said: I don't know where you are getting that unless you take the lowest number in October and put it up against the highest number in Jan. The peak in October was 191 deaths a day and it's now at around 244. For context in Jan last year it was about 1300 a day. I'm looking at ourworldindata because it looks at all countries. The trends are similar to the link showed by bigfatcoward but there is a bigger jump admittedly in ourworldindata. Not that 191 to 244 is a small jump. And it would be even bigger if you compared an average day in October. I wouldn't say we should treat incidental admission the same as COVID admission. It is, as you noted, a change in trend. My interpretation of the article was that we shouldn't treat them as almost irrelevant from a COVID point of view. That's a leap of faith. Omicron may be making other pre-existing conditions worse (for example). And once they have COVID, they take up more hospital resources either way. And by the way, I can't remember who put up this link. But very good (very long too). https://theair.substack.com/p/why-covid-is-airborne-history Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clueless Northman Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 Quote France has registered 464,769 new Covid-19 infections over the last 24 hours, official data showed on Tuesday, the highest ever-recorded tally since the start of the pandemic Well for once they're beating UK... That would be 2.25 mio daily cases in the USA, considering France's population of 68 mio. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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