Times when the story was too much in favor of a house/faction ?

[Terrorthatflapsinthenight9]

What are the times and wars where the odds and the plot were really favoriring one faction or one specific house really too much over the others ? 

I'd say that the Blacks had too much of an advantage over the Greens for most of the Dance of the Dragons with them having suffering far more defeats than the Blacks and them having less many great houses and competent commanders with Aegon II and Aemon being disastrous leaders and strategists, Ser Criston Cole replacing the more patient and competent Otto Hightower as Hand of the King, Boros Baratheon playing a double game and not doing anything for the Greens until Rhaenyra lost King's Landing, the Tyrells and many Reach lords staying neutral, the Lannisters losing their lord and army to the Riverlords and Winter Wolves and then focusing on the Ironborn led by Dalton Greyjoy, etc...

It's telling that aside from Aegon II taking Dragonstone and trapping his half-sister here, most of and the greatest blows dealt to the Blacks were caused by themselves or by the Sherperd and his followers in King's Landing. 

Same for the Lannisters in the War of the Five Kings who benefitted from an absurd amount of good luck and plot armor until the Purple Wedding, while the story was very much against the Starks, with the Baratheon brothers Stannis and Renly being late to actively move against them and fighting each other instead of joining together against the Lannisters due to Renly's inflated ambition and ego, Balon Greyjoy being such a spiteful dumbass who attacked the North and Theon's taking of Winterfell, the Stark-Tullys having the worst and most treacherous vassals in the Boltons and Freys (with the Frey imposing a marriage pact to Robb instead of doing their duty and helping their overlords, Ramsay's rampage, murder of "Bran and Rickon" and sack of Winterfell, the Red Wedding), Renly being killed by a shadow assassin and so the Tyrells allying with the Lannisters instead, Ser Rodrik's plot induced stupidity when dealing with Ramsay and the Ironborn, Robb not telling Edmure about his plan and so Edmure pushing Tywin close enough to Harrenhal and King's Landing to join up with the Tyrells and save KL from Stannis, etc...

What other examples do you have in mind ?

[Aline de Gavrillac]

It isn't unrealistic to have such a conflict.  Fault the weaker house for fighting a stronger house.  A weaker house should try peace. The Conquest is the best example. Torrhen saw it immediately and chose to submit. 

[Canon Claude]

I’d say House Tully and the riverlords really got the short end of the stick. They’re pretty much pushovers until Robb shows up. And it’s not like Jaime’s a highly experienced commander or anything. 
And then when Edmure shows genuine competence against Tywin Lannister himself, it turns out to be yet another downturn in the war.

[The Bard of Banefort]

The Blackwoods over the Brackens. My favorite example of this is Aegon IV’s mistresses: Barba Bracken was a petty schemer who got kicked out by the other Targs, whereas Melissa was a humble, wholesome, revered mistress who was beloved even by Naerys. The best part is how Melissa is described as “younger, prettier, and more modest” than Barba. Barba was 16 when she became Aegon’s mistress, and was replaced only a few years later. How much younger could Melissa have been? What was she, 12? It’s ridiculous. (Then there’s Bethany Bracken, who was tortured and beheaded after she was caught in bed with one of the kingsguard).

[Floki of the Ironborn]

7 hours ago, Canon Claude said:

I’d say House Tully and the riverlords really got the short end of the stick. They’re pretty much pushovers until Robb shows up. And it’s not like Jaime’s a highly experienced commander or anything. 
And then when Edmure shows genuine competence against Tywin Lannister himself, it turns out to be yet another downturn in the war.

I do wonder about those two big battles fought at the Golden Tooth and outside of Riverrun. We don't hear about how many Rivermen fought at both battles, nor do we hear how many died. But it seems like they didn't make a single dent in Jaime's forces, since he still has 15,000 when Robb attacks his army. At least the atrocious casualties at the Battle of the Green Fork made sense; the Northern forces were exhausted, mostly on foot, and they deliberately threw away surprise and the high ground. What were the Riverlords' excuses??

[Terrorthatflapsinthenight9]

The sheer amount of luck and protection that house Bolton, and especially Ramsay, have had until the second half of ADWD is just ridiculous. 

The fact that Robb and none of his lieutnants and advisors suspected Roose of being disloyal and trusted him so blindly despite Ned having always distrusted and kept a wary eye on him, and the fact that the forces under his command but not part of house Bolton's army suffered so many casualties and seemed to be sacrificed while Roose's direct forces suffered little is quite baffling.

And that's nothing compared to how well things went for Ramsay during ACOK : 

 

First the fact that he managed to escape justice and execution for what he did to Lady Hornwood with Reek taking the fall for him, and Ser Rodrik not even verifying if it was the true Ramsay that he killed by asking Hornwood castle and lands if it was the real Ramsay nor one of these inhabitants telling Ser Rodrik that he killed the wrong guy.

Second that Rodrik takes him to Winterfell with him. 

Third that Theon frees him and somehow comes to trust him and follow his advices. 

Fourth that Theon even let him go to find reinforcements and return with them. 

Fifth that he comes back to Winterfell with his men in time, despite the distance between Winterfell and the Dreadfort, before Rodrik could take Winterfell back.

Sixth that they manage to slaughter Ser Rodrik and his men so easily, before sacking the castle and take the survivors with them, with no one in the rest of the North knowing about their betrayal until ADWD.

[Canon Claude]

12 hours ago, Floki of the Ironborn said:

I do wonder about those two big battles fought at the Golden Tooth and outside of Riverrun. We don't hear about how many Rivermen fought at both battles, nor do we hear how many died. But it seems like they didn't make a single dent in Jaime's forces, since he still has 15,000 when Robb attacks his army. At least the atrocious casualties at the Battle of the Green Fork made sense; the Northern forces were exhausted, mostly on foot, and they deliberately threw away surprise and the high ground. What were the Riverlords' excuses??

GRRM’s will be done. It’s all to hype up Robb and the North when they show up and annihilate Jaime’s army.

[Lord Lannister]

To be honest, Robert's Rebellion seemed incredibly skewed in favor of the rebels.

Rhaegar just has to lead personally and of course that bites him in the ass.

Robert repeatedly leads personally and plot armor protects him during repeated close calls.

Mace Tyrell has an entire army he just decides to camp at Storm's End for no strategic gain, that could've been useful in other areas for the loyalists both before and after the Trident.

Aerys just has to open the gates for Tywin, the one time it would make sense for the consistently paranoid king to be paranoid.

[norwaywolf123]

• Robb Stark finding a secret path into the Westerlands, and not being discovered while traveling a vast distance towards Oxcross.
• Theon being able to take Winterfell.
• Lannister luck that Renly was assasinated by a 'shadow'.

[Hugorfonics]

On 1/1/2022 at 4:57 AM, Terrorthatflapsinthenight9 said:

despite Ned having always distrusted and kept a wary eye on him,  

He didn't.

On 1/1/2022 at 4:57 AM, Terrorthatflapsinthenight9 said:

the fact that the forces under his command but not part of house Bolton's army suffered so many casualties

Of course Roose suffered heavy casualties

On 1/1/2022 at 4:57 AM, Terrorthatflapsinthenight9 said:

First the fact that he managed to escape justice and execution for what he did to Lady Hornwood with Reek taking the fall for him

That's what servents do

On 1/1/2022 at 4:57 AM, Terrorthatflapsinthenight9 said:

and Ser Rodrik not even verifying if it was the true Ramsay that he killed by asking Hornwood castle and lands if it was the real Ramsay nor one of these inhabitants telling Ser Rodrik that he killed the wrong guy.

Rodridks a knight, it's beneath him to talk to smallfolk

On 1/1/2022 at 4:57 AM, Terrorthatflapsinthenight9 said:

Second that Rodrik takes him to Winterfell with him. 

Needs a witness

On 1/1/2022 at 4:57 AM, Terrorthatflapsinthenight9 said:

Third that Theon frees him and somehow comes to trust him and follow his advices. 

Agreed. Theon taking Winterfell was a blessing for Bolton.

On 1/1/2022 at 4:57 AM, Terrorthatflapsinthenight9 said:

Fourth that Theon even let him go to find reinforcements and return with them

Well, Ashas not coming back

On 1/1/2022 at 4:57 AM, Terrorthatflapsinthenight9 said:

Fifth that he comes back to Winterfell with his men in time, despite the distance between Winterfell and the Dreadfort

He knows these lands

On 1/1/2022 at 4:57 AM, Terrorthatflapsinthenight9 said:

before Rodrik could take Winterfell back.

He had a massive following and had to prepare a siege

On 1/1/2022 at 4:57 AM, Terrorthatflapsinthenight9 said:

Sixth that they manage to slaughter Ser Rodrik and his men so easily, before sacking the castle and take the survivors with them,

That's because Ramsay's a G

On 1/1/2022 at 4:57 AM, Terrorthatflapsinthenight9 said:

with no one in the rest of the North knowing about their betrayal until ADWD.

Who found out in adwd?

[Corvo the Crow]

10 hours ago, Hugorfonics said:

Who found out in adwd?

Theon’s squire was found by Manderlys.

[The Bard of Banefort]

I would also say that Littlefinger is way too lucky. Tyrion should have had his head off in ACOK, Cersei should have been suspicious that he wanted to marry the prepubescent daughter of the man he just betrayed to the Lannisters, the other houses should be wary of his rise to power (Lord of Harrenhal AND Lord Paramount of the Riverlands AND Lord Protector of the Vale) beyond one halfhearted meeting in AFFC, the Lannisters should have been tipped off by now that LF suddenly has a beautiful daughter the same age as Sansa that he plans on marrying to Harry the Heir, the Vale should have been the first place they thought to look after Sansa disappeared, and so forth. We’re supposed to believe that he’s made himself too valuable to be gotten ride of but a) he’s no longer on the small council and b) are we really supposed to believe that there isn’t a single nobleman in Westeros who understands economics? (This also makes me think that Sansa’s future scheming may also rely on good fortune, since it’s been telegraphed from GRRM that she’s picking up all of LF’s tricks).

[Hugorfonics]

14 hours ago, Corvo the Crow said:

Theon’s squire was found by Manderlys.

Wex told Wyman and Glover that Theon didn't burn Winterfell. Not that Ramsay did. 

(Everyone knows he did it. Everyone knows what his father did. It's a game)

[Universal Sword Donor]

58 minutes ago, Hugorfonics said:

Wex told Wyman and Glover that Theon didn't burn Winterfell. Not that Ramsay did. 

(Everyone knows he did it. Everyone knows what his father did. It's a game)

The survivors of the fight outside WF know as well. GRRM mentions as much in a SSM

 

On 1/1/2022 at 2:42 PM, Lord Lannister said:

To be honest, Robert's Rebellion seemed incredibly skewed in favor of the rebels.

Rhaegar just has to lead personally and of course that bites him in the ass.

Robert repeatedly leads personally and plot armor protects him during repeated close calls.

Mace Tyrell has an entire army he just decides to camp at Storm's End for no strategic gain, that could've been useful in other areas for the loyalists both before and after the Trident.

Aerys just has to open the gates for Tywin, the one time it would make sense for the consistently paranoid king to be paranoid.

Mace's strategic gain was making sure he was seen as loyal.

[Lord Lannister]

1 hour ago, Universal Sword Donor said:

Mace's strategic gain was making sure he was seen as loyal.

Oh I agree that was a brilliant move on Mace's part personally. House Tyrell stood to gain the spoils of victory, or just dip their banners and call it a day, either way at the cost of almost nothing to their forces. Just Rhaegar or Aerys should've at least tried to override him there.

[Universal Sword Donor]

1 hour ago, Lord Lannister said:

Oh I agree that was a brilliant move on Mace's part personally. House Tyrell stood to gain the spoils of victory, or just dip their banners and call it a day, either way at the cost of almost nothing to their forces. Just Rhaegar or Aerys should've at least tried to override him there.

We know mace sent men to the trident. Rhaegar or Aerys could have ordered that.

[Apoplexy]

I would say having fire breathing dragons is an extreme advantage, even without a large army on ground. Aegon's conquest was almost sure to end with Aegon being the victor. And if Dany and/or her allies have control of all three dragons, she would have a massive advantage, even if people build siege weapons designed to attack dragons.

[The hairy bear]

I completely agree that the Blacwood-Bracken feud is absurdly skewed. Every time that there's a conflict between the houses, the Blackwoods are on the most fair, reasonable and justified side (I counted 10 instances of that happening, with no existing case of the opposite situation).

I also agree that the both the Dance and the Blackfyre Rebellion would improve from a dramatic point of view if the greens and the Blackfyres had been painted in a more positive light.

On 1/16/2022 at 5:29 PM, Apoplexy said:

I would say having fire breathing dragons is an extreme advantage

I wouldn't say that the advantage is that extreme. Visenya's first invasion of the Vale failed, and Dorne remained unconquered and managed to kill Rhaenyra. Aegon had some luck in his conquest, and his rival kings were terrible at decision-making (concentrating all forces on dry wheat fields?! Sheltering on a high castle and not watching for coming dragons?)

In the Dance, Rhaenyra wasn't able to capitalize on her dragon superiority, and in the Gullet, a well-trained army was able to take a dragon down. Also, since the number of persons who can ride dragons are limited, murdering them can also effectively deal with the problem.

[Ran]

2 hours ago, The hairy bear said:

I counted 10 instances of that happening, with no existing case of the opposite situation).

Their wanting to go to war because the Brute of Bracken accidentally killed their lord in a melee doesn’t strike me as reasonable at all.

[Apoplexy]

3 hours ago, The hairy bear said:

I wouldn't say that the advantage is that extreme. Visenya's first invasion of the Vale failed, and Dorne remained unconquered and managed to kill Rhaenyra. Aegon had some luck in his conquest, and his rival kings were terrible at decision-making (concentrating all forces on dry wheat fields?! Sheltering on a high castle and not watching for coming dragons?)

In the Dance, Rhaenyra wasn't able to capitalize on her dragon superiority, and in the Gullet, a well-trained army was able to take a dragon down. Also, since the number of persons who can ride dragons are limited, murdering them can also effectively deal with the problem.

I personally need to suspend disbelief a bit to buy that those armies were able to take down/fend off dragons, considering how large they are described to be and that they breathe fire.

By the time of Dance, people were probably more familiar with dragons and dragon riders. Even then, taking down dragons would need a lot of planning and a lot of luck.