Times when the story was too much in favor of a house/faction ?

[Lord Varys]

3 hours ago, The hairy bear said:

In the Dance, Rhaenyra wasn't able to capitalize on her dragon superiority, and in the Gullet, a well-trained army was able to take a dragon down. Also, since the number of persons who can ride dragons are limited, murdering them can also effectively deal with the problem.

George pretty much dropped the ball on dragon warfare during the Dance. Rhaenyra had a huge advantage in dragons and the time and opportunity to actually discuss strategy - they do this in the beginning of the war, remember? Yet instead to torch Storm's End after the murder of Lucerys - which would have been the natural answer to that outrage - not even the possibility comes up. Instead all Daemon can think of is Blood and Cheese which is just a bloody mess. The Conqueror torched Harrenhal just because Harren refused to yield - Borros Baratheon actively betrayed Rhaenys and Rhaenyra.

And if they had shown what it meant to defy Rhaenyra - what the price was you had to pay if you fooled around with the dragons - people would have either fallen in line very quickly or would have at least decided to stay out of the conflict.

Also, once Rhaenyra finally took the throne the war should and would have been over. She still had more dragons than the Greens - who were effectively down to the rogue Aemond and Daeron's small Tessarion. How could or would Oldtown or Lannisport ever raise armies against Rhaenyra if her dragonriders could destroy her those cities on a whim? Even back when she was still on Dragonstone what kind of moron would actually dare join Aegon II if Rhaenyra had enough dragons to target multiple castles at once while still defending her island against the Green dragonriders?

While Ormund Hightower is marching against KL and Jason Lannister against Harrenhal nobody is stopping Syrax or Caraxes from flying to Oldtown or Lannisport to torch those places. Yet the people involved act as if the dragons of the enemy don't really pose a threat to them, their families, and their homes.

The only dragon who is used realistically is Tessarion - as the great asset of a large army, serving both as scout and weapon of war.

Instead of wasting two dragons on the pointless hunt for Aemond, any real person would have sent 4-5 dragonriders to the Hightower army marching against Tumbleton ... telling them to disband or watch all their castles, towns, and cities burn.

Would any of the lords there have insisted to continue the fight when given such an ultimatum? I doubt it, but they don't even try to take that road.

[Loose Bolt]

15 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Yet instead to torch Storm's End after the murder of Lucerys - which would have been the natural answer to that outrage

We know that Storm's End has some defensive magic. After all that is a reason why Melisandre had to get beyond walls of SE to deliver her shadowbaby. So there is a chance that Blacks assumed that any dragon raid against that castle would be less effective than raid against Harrenhall. Or they suspected a possibility that defensive magic might be strong enough to make torching of SE a failure.

[The hairy bear]

22 hours ago, Ran said:

Their wanting to go to war because the Brute of Bracken accidentally killed their lord in a melee doesn’t strike me as reasonable at all.

Fair enough, although if I'm not wrong we only hear about that from a minor house's septon. He was only speculating, and, at the end, there was no war that we know of.

Also, given that the incident took place just a decade after the Redgrass Field, I'd also say that there's grounds to question the "accidentally" part. It's easy to assume that, at the very least, Ser Otho was exceedingly vicious. So the Blackwoods would be justified in their grudges, I'd say.

Agains that we have: the Blackwoods being the leaders of the rebellion against Humfrey Teague, the Brackens betraying the riverlords and joining Harwyn Hoare, the Brackens joining the greens at the Dance, Missy being "the best loved" of Aegon's mistress, Bethany being unfaithful to Aegon IV, the Brackens rebelling with the Blackfyres, Serenei choosing Bloodraven over Bittersteel, Egg marrying a Blackwood, the wise hand Tywin supporting the Blackwoods while the mad king sided with the Brackens, the Brackens abandoning the Starks after the war, Tytos is depicted as learned and honorable while Jonos lies with whores... It's a very one-sided situation.

 

21 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

George pretty much dropped the ball on dragon warfare during the Dance. Rhaenyra had a huge advantage in dragons and the time and opportunity to actually discuss strategy - they do this in the beginning of the war, remember?

The initial advantage in dragons is not that huge if you dismiss the dragons belonging to underage children and you consider the size of the dragons (Vhagar was the biggest one, and Dreamfyre would be the second). It'd be Vhagar, Dreamfyre, Sunfyre and Daeron on one side versus Caraxes, Syrax, Meleys, Vermax and Arrax on the other. I'd say those odds are about even.

21 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Yet instead to torch Storm's End after the murder of Lucerys - which would have been the natural answer to that outrage - not even the possibility comes up.

At the beginning of the Dance we are told that Rhaenyra was to weak to ride after delivering. Then, the news of Luce's death leave her in a state of depression for some time. But we know that,  eventually, she rode with Syrax to the Stormlands. It's a pity that Glyndayn decided not to write about that part of the war, but It seems reasable to assume that this was Rhaenyra trying to punish Borros. I like to thing that when she reached Storm's End he saw that Borros had installed dozens of ballistas on the drum tower, and she decided to leave.

21 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

While Ormund Hightower is marching against KL and Jason Lannister against Harrenhal nobody is stopping Syrax or Caraxes from flying to Oldtown or Lannisport to torch those places. Yet the people involved act as if the dragons of the enemy don't really pose a threat to them, their families, and their homes.

Not the Conqueror, nor any other Targaryen king before, did ever use a dragon indiscriminately against civilians. I think doing that would have been a very bad idea.

We are told that the widespread revolt in King's Landing and the assault to the dragonpit was a result of the sack of Tumbleton. If instead of a brutal sack of a market town, it had been the deliberate destruction of two of the greatest Westerosi cities, commoners may have reacted with even more violence.

[Lord Varys]

8 hours ago, Loose Bolt said:

We know that Storm's End has some defensive magic. After all that is a reason why Melisandre had to get beyond walls of SE to deliver her shadowbaby. So there is a chance that Blacks assumed that any dragon raid against that castle would be less effective than raid against Harrenhall. Or they suspected a possibility that defensive magic might be strong enough to make torching of SE a failure.

For that we would have to assume that the Targaryens knew about that defensive magic and assumed it had any effect on dragonfire. It didn't keep the dragons out, and Queen Rhaena threatened to turn Storm's End into another Harrenhal.

4 hours ago, The hairy bear said:

Fair enough, although if I'm not wrong we only hear about that from a minor house's septon. He was only speculating, and, at the end, there was no war that we know of.

Also, given that the incident took place just a decade after the Redgrass Field, I'd also say that there's grounds to question the "accidentally" part. It's easy to assume that, at the very least, Ser Otho was exceedingly vicious. So the Blackwoods would be justified in their grudges, I'd say.

Agains that we have: the Blackwoods being the leaders of the rebellion against Humfrey Teague, the Brackens betraying the riverlords and joining Harwyn Hoare, the Brackens joining the greens at the Dance, Missy being "the best loved" of Aegon's mistress, Bethany being unfaithful to Aegon IV, the Brackens rebelling with the Blackfyres, Serenei choosing Bloodraven over Bittersteel, Egg marrying a Blackwood, the wise hand Tywin supporting the Blackwoods while the mad king sided with the Brackens, the Brackens abandoning the Starks after the war, Tytos is depicted as learned and honorable while Jonos lies with whores... It's a very one-sided situation.

I get what you mean with the Bracken-Blackwood thing, but we don't have to interpret them as rigidly as you do. For instance, the Brackens standing with the last Teague king is not necessarily bad, nor do you have to view his attempts to get rid of the old gods as a bad thing. The Blackwoods inviting their Durrandon in-laws brings a foreign invader into the Riverlands ... something that's not necessarily positve.

The Bracken later siding with the Hoares turned out to be ill judgment ... but they basically did the same as the Blackwoods earlier.

Melissa being the good mistress is almost a necessity thanks to Bloodraven's relationship with Daeron II and his sons. The guy would have never gotten any advancement if his mother hadn't been friends with Naerys, Aemon, and Daeron II.

Bethany being unfaithful to Aegon IV is definitely not a bad thing. She is a victim of her family and the evil king.

4 hours ago, The hairy bear said:

The initial advantage in dragons is not that huge if you dismiss the dragons belonging to underage children and you consider the size of the dragons (Vhagar was the biggest one, and Dreamfyre would be the second). It'd be Vhagar, Dreamfyre, Sunfyre and Daeron on one side versus Caraxes, Syrax, Meleys, Vermax and Arrax on the other. I'd say those odds are about even.

If you talk about the Blacks attacking KL you do have a point. In such a scenario it is conceivable that Helaena would have ridden Dreamfyre in battle. But she is a woman, and no Targaryen woman since Visenya actually rode a dragon in war, so we can not really count her among the combatants to the same degree as the male dragonriders. Only Sunfyre, Tessarion, and Vhagar were available as proper Green 'fighting dragons' (i.e. dragons we can assume might have been used in a military campaign away from KL). And Sunfyre and Tessarion weren't that large.

Rhaenyra has sufficient dragons to defend her own island of Dragonstone while at the same time sending out large dragons to punish castles and towns and cities who declare for her enemies.

The Greens do not have that luxury. If they were sending Vhagar to the Vale or the North to burn castles there, Rhaenyra could sweep in with her dragons to take over the city as she later does.

If you put yourself in the shoes of a lord declaring for Aegon II in 129 AC ... how is it that you are not afraid that Rhaenyra's dragonriders are going to make short work out of your property?

4 hours ago, The hairy bear said:

At the beginning of the Dance we are told that Rhaenyra was to weak to ride after delivering. Then, the news of Luce's death leave her in a state of depression for some time.

After Luke's death Rhaenyra herself may not have been able to ride Syrax, yes, but she still had Daemon and Rhaenys - either or both of them could have destroyed Storm's End. And Jace would have gladly joined them after his return from Winterfell.

4 hours ago, The hairy bear said:

But we know that,  eventually, she rode with Syrax to the Stormlands. It's a pity that Glyndayn decided not to write about that part of the war, but It seems reasable to assume that this was Rhaenyra trying to punish Borros. I like to thing that when she reached Storm's End he saw that Borros had installed dozens of ballistas on the drum tower, and she decided to leave.

Oh, you seem to be confused by speculations we had years ago about the whole Byron Swann thing. Rhaenyra never went to the Stormlands, after all, and Swann allegedly tried to slay Syrax in the Red Keep - although I still don't buy that version.

4 hours ago, The hairy bear said:

Not the Conqueror, nor any other Targaryen king before, did ever use a dragon indiscriminately against civilians. I think doing that would have been a very bad idea.

There would have been plenty of civilians among Harren's garrison in Harrenhal. And of course dragons were used against civilians later on - the First Dornish War starts with meek Rhaenys burning down the Planky Town, and then come the escalations, and during the Faith Militant Uprising Maegor and Visenya burn civilians left and right when they torch dozens of castles in a couple of days.

It was clearly established that the Targaryens could and did do something like that - and both Lannisport and Oldtown are very vulnerable to such attacks. The Hightowers gave in to the threat of dragonfire two times. First when Aegon showed up and then later when Visenya showed up - they went even as far as to (most likely) murder the High Septon and basically help the Targaryens install a puppet in his place who would stop making trouble.

But Rhaenyra and Daemon don't even think about telling Lord Ormund that he think very carefully about what he is doing now. I mean, sure, his campaign starts as a campaign against the Black Reach lords, so it is no direct attack against Rhaenyra herself. But once she has the Iron Throne his army marches against her city, destroying everything in its path. Before Tumbleton she controls a lot of dragonriders, so the obvious way to stop Ormund would have been to tell him that he either bend his knee, disband his army, and go back home ... or he won't have a home to go back to.

Dragons can fly, so Rhaenyra's dragonriders could have been in Oldtown to burn the place and be back in KL before Ormund's army got from Longtable to Bitterbridge.

And we have similar scenario with the Westermen. Once they invaded the Riverlands Daemon could have told them they either go back home or their castles and towns and cities would be burned.

George likes to compare his dragons to nukes - and although I think that's a false comparison since the dragons aren't *that* destructive, they still give you the ability to move around very fast and destroy the home of your enemy even if you do not feel like attacking him in the field. This is why Aemond is, perhaps, the stupidest dragonrider in the book after he leaves Harrenhal. He has the ability to attack crucial Black strongholds but he mostly terrorizes the smallfolk of the Riverlands. Why didn't he torch the Eyrie or Winterfell?

4 hours ago, The hairy bear said:

We are told that the widespread revolt in King's Landing and the assault to the dragonpit was a result of the sack of Tumbleton. If instead of a brutal sack of a market town, it had been the deliberate destruction of two of the greatest Westerosi cities, commoners may have reacted with even more violence.

It seems to me that the Storming of the Dragonpit was result of a slowly-building tide of terror. First the Kingslanders feared that Rhaenyra's dragons might burn them, then, when that didn't happen, they thought they were finally safe when Rhaenyra had taken the city, but then the war continued, an evil army and evil dragons were expected any day, bringing gruesome reports after the savageries at Tumbleton.

That is why those people were so panicked that they ended up slaying the very dragons who might have been able to protect them against the approaching Greens. Syrax and Tyraxes would have tried, one imagines, and somebody could have claimed the riderless dragons eventually.

But to be clear - I'm not complaining that nobody burned Oldtown or Lannisport as such. Rather I find it odd that nobody ever threatened to do that, nobody apparently ever considered it, nobody ever tried to use Jaehaerys' old 'veiled threat' routine by destroying a smaller target and thus sending the message that, if push came to shove, a larger town or city would be the next target.

[Ran]

13 hours ago, The hairy bear said:

Also, given that the incident took place just a decade after the Redgrass Field, I'd also say that there's grounds to question the "accidentally" part. It's easy to assume that, at the very least, Ser Otho was exceedingly vicious. So the Blackwoods would be justified in their grudges, I'd say.

We literally have Baelor be accidentally killed -- certainly by men (and probably one particular man) who did not mean to kill him and avoided doing so as best they could -- in the same story where we learn of the death of Lord Blackwood. I don't think we can assume the Brute of Bracken was "exceedingly vicious". What we know is he was obviously a very strong man, as Maekar was when his mace broke his brother's skull, and that's really all we can say about it.

I'm a little thrown by your list, because you called these conflicts... but Missy being liked is not a conflict with the Brackens -- Barba had already been deposed at the behest of Aemon, Daeron, and the lords before Aegon took up with Missy -- whereas it seems clear that Bethany Bracken was used to lure the king away from Missy, so that was a place where the Brackens beat the Blackwoods, yet you don't count it as such. Or do you suppose the Blackwoods instigated Bethany being grossed out by Aegon? And do we believe George's view of what happened with Bethany -- a young woman turning to a young, handsome man instead of the fat, venal king -- actually impugns her, and by extension the Brackens as people? Any more than Missy being flung at Aegon did, anyways?

ADwD goes out of its way to point out that the families are so intermarried that they're basically a single family, a bunch of surly cousins.

[The Grey Wolf Strikes Back]

@Ran

Gyldayn and Yandel's tone make it clear where our sympathies should lie. Lothar Bracken dies an ignoble death and his castle is sacked whereas Agnes Blackwood dies heroically defiant, earning Hardhand's respect in the process. Black Aly helps save Corlys' life, marries Cregan, hosts Widow's Fairs, and in one version avenges her brother by killing Amos while the Brackens get their castle stormed, their entire family threatened, and Gyldayn going out of his way to bring up Humphrey's infidelity by mentioning a "baseborn paramour". As for Aegon IV's mistresses Melissa is written to be a saint while teenage Barba (who's very name evokes Barbara Villiers, one of Charles II's more infamous and powerful mistresses) is consistently presented in a negative light as immodest and grasping to the point exiling her from court less than a month after she gave birth, which must have been physically taxing, is treated as the right thing to do as opposed to needlessly cruel. (And before you bring up what her father said let me remind you that when Ellyn Reyne pulled a stunt far exceeding that of his Gerold Lannister showed more kindness and restraint than Daeron "the Good", who was the person advocating for her immediate wholesale removal despite her not having spoken the words for which she was ostensibly being punished.)

@Lord Varys

This is why Jaehaerys I having so few grandkids was a mistake. If I had been advising GRRM I would have suggested the following:

1) Aegon, son of Baelon, lives and sides with the Greens, possibly having children of an age with Baela, Rhaena, etc.

2) Have Helaena and Rhaenyra both be active combatants instead of relegated to insanity and grief

3) Bring back the sons of Saera, possibly as Otto's envoys to the Triarchy and in further such capacities (Maybe even have the Greens pull a reverse Sowing of the Seeds?)

4) Have Aemma Arryn either have a full sibling who's child marries back into the main line and/or Viserra marrying Desmond Manderly and thus being the mother of Medrick as well as Torrhen, which would also help explain why Rickon was married to Jeyne Manderly, who is presumably a daughter or granddaughter of Torrhen himself

Finally, I really don't understand why Jaehaerys and Alysanne but especially Jaehaerys of the "I need no second father" fame didn't name one of their sons or grandsons Aenys. Indeed, that would have made much more sense than Valerion, which honestly sounds like a Pokémon or a really clumsy attempt at honoring the Arryns.

[Lord Varys]

13 hours ago, The Grey Wolf Strikes Back said:

@Ran

Gyldayn and Yandel's tone make it clear where our sympathies should lie. Lothar Bracken dies an ignoble death and his castle is sacked whereas Agnes Blackwood dies heroically defiant, earning Hardhand's respect in the process.

But was it actually 'good' to stick to the foreign Durrandon kings? Or was it good of the earlier Blackwoods to invite the Durrandons to invade?

You can say that Agnes Blackwood comes across as 'cool' but not necessarily as a good character.

13 hours ago, The Grey Wolf Strikes Back said:

Black Aly helps save Corlys' life, marries Cregan, hosts Widow's Fairs, and in one version avenges her brother by killing Amos while the Brackens get their castle stormed, their entire family threatened, and Gyldayn going out of his way to bring up Humphrey's infidelity by mentioning a "baseborn paramour".

The account makes it pretty clear that Blackwoods used the starting Dance as a pretext to invade the lands of their hated neighbors, spoiling septs as they marched. Folks having baseborn paramours - and mistresses in general - aren't bad because of that, either. Nobody says that Robert is 'a bad guy' because he banged some baseborn women.

13 hours ago, The Grey Wolf Strikes Back said:

As for Aegon IV's mistresses Melissa is written to be a saint while teenage Barba (who's very name evokes Barbara Villiers, one of Charles II's more infamous and powerful mistresses) is consistently presented in a negative light as immodest and grasping to the point exiling her from court less than a month after she gave birth, which must have been physically taxing, is treated as the right thing to do as opposed to needlessly cruel. (And before you bring up what her father said let me remind you that when Ellyn Reyne pulled a stunt far exceeding that of his Gerold Lannister showed more kindness and restraint than Daeron "the Good", who was the person advocating for her immediate wholesale removal despite her not having spoken the words for which she was ostensibly being punished.)

As I said, Melissa had to be popular with Daeron's faction at court, or else the entire character and later role of Bloodraven makes no sense. Bloodraven wouldn't have sided with Daeron II during the Blackfyre Rebellion if he hadn't had earlier connections with him ... nor would he had gotten any advancement if he sided with the Targaryens. Daeron II and his sons would have viewed him as a smarter version of Bittersteel and Daemon, expecting him to stab them in the back to steal their throne rather than challenging them openly.

The Ellyn-Barba comparison is way off since the former was actually a Lannister-by-marriage twice over whereas Barba was just a mistress whose very presence humiliated Queen Naerys. But I'm not seeing Yandel stating that sending her away was 'the right thing to do'.

13 hours ago, The Grey Wolf Strikes Back said:

@Lord Varys

1) Aegon, son of Baelon, lives and sides with the Greens, possibly having children of an age with Baela, Rhaena, etc.

If there were more branches of House Targaryen - either through the male or the female line - I'd have expected them to play the prominent factions against each other, not actually allying themselves with one of them.

For instance, Larys Strong would have made a lot of sense as a Targaryen descendant since his ultimate goal seems to have been to control the Iron Throne.

13 hours ago, The Grey Wolf Strikes Back said:

2) Have Helaena and Rhaenyra both be active combatants instead of relegated to insanity and grief

Helaena was a waste as a character. Rhaenyra could have been more active but she does at least some things.

13 hours ago, The Grey Wolf Strikes Back said:

3) Bring back the sons of Saera, possibly as Otto's envoys to the Triarchy and in further such capacities (Maybe even have the Greens pull a reverse Sowing of the Seeds?)

Well, in context it is quite odd that there are so many riderless dragons on Dragonstone considering Jaehaerys I clearly moved the bulk of the dragons to the Dragonpit. Silverwing being on Dragonstone makes sense since Alysanne died there, but the Old King died in KL so Vermithor should have remained there, Seasmoke should have been on Driftmark, etc.

[Angel Eyes]

5 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

But was it actually 'good' to stick to the foreign Durrandon kings? Or was it good from the earlier Blackwoods to invite the Durrandons to invade?

You can say that Agnes Blackwood comes across as 'cool' but not necessarily as a good character.

The account makes it pretty clear that Blackwoods used the starting Dance as a pretext to invade the lands of their hated neighbors, spoiling septs as they marched. Folks having baseborn paramours - a mistresses in general - aren't bad because of that, either.

As I said, Melissa had to be popular with Daeron's faction at court, or else the entire character and later role of Bloodraven makes no sense. Bloodraven wouldn't have sided with Daeron II during the Blackfyre Rebellion if he hadn't had earlier connections with him ... nor would he had gotten any advancement if he sided with the Targaryens. Daeron II and his sons would have viewed as a smarter version of Bittersteel and Daemon, expecting him to stab them in the back to steal their throne rather than challenging them openly.

The Ellyn-Barba comparison is way off since the former was actually a Lannister-by-marriage twice over whereas Barba was just a mistress whose very presence humiliated Queen Naerys. But I'm not seeing Yandel stating that sending her away was 'the right thing to do'.

If there were more branches of House Targaryen - either through the male or the female line - I'd have expected them to play the prominent factions against each other, not actually allying themselves with one of them.

For instance, Larys Strong would have made a lot of sense as a Targaryen descendant since his ultimate goal seems to have been to control the Iron Throne.

Helaena was a waste as a character. Rhaenyra could have been more active but she does at least some things.

Well, in context it is quite odd that there are so many riderless dragons on Dragonstone considering Jaehaerys I clearly moved the bulk of the dragons to the Dragonpit. Silverwing being on Dragonstone makes sense since Alysanne died there, but the Old King died in KL so Vermithor should have remained there, Seasmoke should have been on Driftmark, etc.

On the Blackwoods, is it possible that Yandel is a Blackwood, albeit of illegitimate heritage, hence why he writes so glowingly of that house?

[Lord Varys]

5 minutes ago, Angel Eyes said:

On the Blackwoods, is it possible that Yandel is a Blackwood, albeit of illegitimate heritage, hence why he writes so glowingly of that house?

Yandel is an orphan foundling in Oldtown. He has no family connections to anyone aside from the people at the Citadel who raised him.

And as I said - I think it is interpretation on the reader's part that he puts them in a positive light.

As for the Dance being weird:

One also wonders why the hell any of the Crownlanders were as stupid as to openly declare for Rhaenyra after Aegon's coronation. I mean, yes, it makes a lot of sense that they would be Black since they were very close to KL and Dragonstone, but their seats are so close to the capital and the Green dragons that a smart person would pay lip service to both sides and do his or her best to become invisible.

In fact, the whole war would have made much sense if more or less everybody outside the royal family were completely opportunistic, turning their cloaks again and again depending on the dragonrider's allegiance who came knocking. Because that's what you would be doing in this scenario. You would not give Daemon or Aemond, etc. a learned speech about legal precedents and the like, instead you would do what they demanded and hope they will not burn your castle.