Crackpot Debunking Thread

[Phylum of Alexandria]

See I think of the Bolton flaying as just an Easter egg reference to some of GRRM's other works, such as In the Lost Lands, The Skin Trade, and the Kavalar of Dying of the Light. In all of those stories, there is at least a belief (and sometimes confirmation) that donning the skin of a werewolf or other beastling will grant the wearer of the skin the power to transform. The term "skinchanger" comes from those earlier stories.

[Crona]

On 1/3/2022 at 10:43 PM, Corvo the Crow said:

 

Crackpots with evidence against them but yet persisting especially if a small group of posters keep posting that despite being proven wrong. No, just no. This some flat earther level behaviour.

That’s messed up to compare them to flat earthers. Asoiaf is a fantasy and is not connected to reality. Let them say what they want. If you have an issue with it then just ignore it. I think you spend way too much time on these boards.

[Darryk]

On 1/4/2022 at 4:18 PM, LynnS said:

He also said that there were a few fan theories that were correct but he wasn't worried about it because he didn't think they would be believed.  Or words to that effect. That was early days.   

More recently:

'Game Of Thrones' Fan Theories George R.R. Martin Has Shot Down (bustle.com)

George R.R. Martin Admits Some 'Game Of Thrones' Fan Theories Are Correct | HuffPost Entertainment

George R.R. Martin Says A Fan Correctly Guessed The Ending Of 'Game of Thrones' (yahoo.com)

 

 

 

 

Cool links  

The one from Yahoo seems a bit of a misleading headline though. Saying a fan guessed "the ending" is kind of broad...what aspect of the ending exactly? Like, the whole ending?

And the actual quotes from Martin are just him saying that certain theories are correct (he could be referring to R + L = J), not that someone guessed the correct ending. Weird.

[LynnS]

59 minutes ago, Darryk said:

Cool links  

The one from Yahoo seems a bit of a misleading headline though. Saying a fan guessed "the ending" is kind of broad...what aspect of the ending exactly? Like, the whole ending?

And the actual quotes from Martin are just him saying that certain theories are correct (he could be referring to R + L = J), not that someone guessed the correct ending. Weird.

Unless you see the original post or quote; then anything else could be considered second hand and potentially filtered or skewed in some way.  I went looking for one of the reddit posts and it's been removed.  So there is no way to know what was actually said.

[Mister Smikes]

"Confirmations" suffer from a similar problem as "Debunkings", which is a bias on the part of many people to interpret something as proof of what they already believe, or want to believe.  It is called "confirmation bias".

For instance, it has been reported that GRRM confirmed that Brienne was Dunk's descendant.  This appears to be ... not true.  

[Corvo the Crow]

2 hours ago, Mister Smikes said:

If the text of the WORLD BOOK debunks the theory, then that should be your argument.

If your idea is that Ran is an "author" and therefore everything he says is canon in GRRM's universe, then I disagree.  If the WORLD BOOK text can be considered canon, it is because GRRM reviewed and approved those parts he did not write directly, and not because anything Elio and Linda says is per se canon.  

I know that Elio & Linda are also on record as strongly opposing the "Quentyn is Alive" theory, a theory I endorse.  But since they do not claim to speak for GRRM, I still feel some confidence in the theory.  And of course, they are always free to try to win the argument by getting GRRM to make a statement on the issue.  Until then, they are entitled to their opinions, and I am entitled to mine.

If you are expecting something explicitly written like "Serenei of Lys is not Larra Rogare, they are not the same person, have never been and won't ever be"  then of course we won't find anything like that, then again, we've never seen anything like "Mance Rayder is not Rhaegar" either but both have enough textual evidence and from what I've been told, it wasn't the text that was the proof of Serenei and Larra being the same person either, it was their drawings.

[Odej]

26 minutes ago, Mister Smikes said:

"Confirmations" suffer from a similar problem as "Debunkings", which is a bias on the part of many people to interpret something as proof of what they already believe, or want to believe.  It is called "confirmation bias".

For instance, it has been reported that GRRM confirmed that Brienne was Dunk's descendant.  This appears to be ... not true.  

https://thewertzone.blogspot.com/2016/05/george-rr-martin-confirms-game-of.html

Is this because the lady asked Martin already assuming that Brienne is the Duncan's descendant whom Martin says is referenced in AFFC? 

I mean, Brienne is the only option.

[Mister Smikes]

15 minutes ago, Odej said:

https://thewertzone.blogspot.com/2016/05/george-rr-martin-confirms-game-of.html

Yes, I've seen such articles, and they are not true.  GRRM merely gave a non-committal answer to a loaded question while he was busy signing books.  People chose to take it as confirmation of what they already believed.

Had they not already believed this, they would never have taken his words as confirmation.  This is proven by the reaction of various lemonhaters when GRRM confirmed that the lemongate discrepancy was significant.  Ran, for instance, declared it to be a non-answer of no significance.

15 minutes ago, Odej said:

Is this because the lady asked Martin already assuming that Brienne is the Duncan's descendant whom Martin says is referenced in AFFC? 

I mean, Brienne is the only option.

Well, you see, therein lies the problem.  You are explaining why you already believe it.  You are not addressing the problem that GRRM's words at the signing cannot be fairly construed as confirming what you already believe.

Anyhow, I disagree.  I do not think Brienne is the only option.  Bonifer Hasty is another option.  And, in my opinion, a better one.  

[Odej]

38 minutes ago, Mister Smikes said:

Anyhow, I disagree.  I do not think Brienne is the only option.  Bonifer Hasty is another option.  And, in my opinion, a better one.

Why do you think is Bonifer Hasty?

Martin said that we would meet a descendant of Duncan in AFFC and there is a reference to it in the book. Brienne remembers a shield with the same description as Duncan's shield in the armoury on Tarh. What Duncan reference can we find about Bonifer Hasty?

[HoodedCrow]

Yes, It’s wise to trust Ran on the identity of Larra:) It was interesting to read anyway. I never thought about the cat images in the history of the series like that.

[Mister Smikes]

12 minutes ago, Odej said:

Why do you think is Bonifer Hasty?

-- Is very tall, as one might expect for a descendant of Dunk.

-- Is, or was, a talented tournament knight as one might expect from a descendant of Dunk.

-- Is moral and decent, leading the only fighting force in Westeros that does not rape, as one might expect from a descendant of Dunk.

-- Is a landed knight, which is the rank one would expect the son of King's best friend to have.

-- Was at court at the same time as Duncan the Tall, as one might expect of a descendant of Dunk.

-- Had enough access to the royal family to make Rhaella fall in love with him, which is not so likely for an average landed knight, but is maybe more plausible for the son/grandson of the king's best friend.

-- Jaime's idea that he was altered by some great tragedy implies a connection to the Summerhall Tragedy, which is the only great tragedy of the period we know about.

-- The alternative theory makes no sense.  Nobody has ever been able to explain the logical connection between Dunk's shield being in the Lord of Tarth's armory, and Brienne being a descendant of Dunk.  Sure, you can write a piece of fanfic that includes both elements, but neither element will have any necessary logical connection to each other.

[Mourning Star]

10 minutes ago, Mister Smikes said:

-- The alternative theory makes no sense.  Nobody has ever been able to explain the logical connection between Dunk's shield being in the Lord of Tarth's armory, and Brienne being a descendant of Dunk.  Sure, you can write a piece of fanfic that includes both elements, but neither element will have any necessary logical connection to each other.

Except that a huge appeal to the theory that Brienne is Dunk's descendant is that we do not know who her mother was, and she died before Brienne knew her.

If Brienne's mother was Dunk's daughter, possibly by a Targryen, it could explain both the shield and the odd line in the world book about the Tarth-Targaryen connection.

The Sapphire Isle, as some call it, is ruled by House Tarth of Evenfall Hall—an old family of Andal descent that boasts of ties to the Durrandons, the Baratheons, and more recently to House Targaryen. Once kings in their own right, the Lords of Tarth still style themselves "the Evenstar," a title that they claim goes back unto the dawn of days.

Obviously, Hodor is a fantastic candidate as well.

[Mister Smikes]

19 minutes ago, Mourning Star said:

Except that a huge appeal to the theory that Brienne is Dunk's descendant is that we do not know who her mother was, and she died before Brienne knew her.

If Brienne's mother was Dunk's daughter, possibly by a Targryen, it could explain both the shield and the odd line in the world book about the Tarth-Targaryen connection.

I see neither the logic nor the appeal.  But no, I do not deny that it is possible to make up a story that includes both elements.  

A better theory (other than Bonifer), if you want the shield to be a clue, is that the shield was siezed as spoils of war and placed in Tarth's armory.  Tarth, I believe, would have sided with King Robert.   Do we know a tall square-headed knight, of unknown heritage, who fought for the Targaryens and lost his shield?  Yes, we do.  But if the Elder Brother is a descendant of Dunk he can't be the only one, since per GRRM we had already met one or more descendant(s) of Dunk by book 3. 

19 minutes ago, Mourning Star said:

 

19 minutes ago, Mourning Star said:

 

Obviously, Hodor is a fantastic candidate as well.

Only because he is tall.  So are Bonifer Hasty and the Elder Brother.

[Odej]

3 minutes ago, Mister Smikes said:

-- Is very tall, as one might expect for a descendant of Dunk.

This can be applied to many characters.

4 minutes ago, Mister Smikes said:

-- Is, or was, a talented tournament knight as one might expect from a descendant of Dunk.

-- Is moral and decent, leading the only fighting force in Westeros that does not rape, as one might expect from a descendant of Dunk.

Children are not copies of their parents or ancestors. Baelor Breakerspear was great in tournaments, but his son Valarr wasn't. Aegon IV was a scoundrel, his son Daeron wasn't. And as for Bonnifer being moral and decent, I don't think highly of a man who blames women for men's misbehavior. He seems to me just another conservative guy with no sense of humor.

13 minutes ago, Mister Smikes said:

-- Is a landed knight, which is the rank one would expect the son of King's best friend to have.

Well, I don't expect. Which examples of childdren of royals besties, who don't have land, became landed knights do we have in the books?

28 minutes ago, Mister Smikes said:

-- Jaime's idea that he was altered by some great tragedy implies a connection to the Summerhall Tragedy, which is the only great tragedy of the period we know about.

His love for Rhaella is a tragedy for a romantic heart. When she married Aerys, Bonifer was so heart-broken that he joined the Faith and abandoned the cavalry.

38 minutes ago, Mister Smikes said:

-- The alternative theory makes no sense.  Nobody has ever been able to explain the logical connection between Dunk's shield being in the Lord of Tarth's armory, and Brienne being a descendant of Dunk.  Sure, you can write a piece of fanfic that includes both elements, but neither element will have any necessary logical connection to each other.

This is so easy to explain. Duncan may have visited Tarth, as he visited Dorne, Winterfell, The Reach, and left his shield there. He was a hedge knight. It doesn't take much mental effort to speculate that Duncan may have had an affair with Lord Tarh's daughter or even his wife, and had a son.

[Mister Smikes]

7 minutes ago, Odej said:

This is so easy to explain. Duncan may have visited Tarth, as he visited Dorne, Winterfell, The Reach, and left his shield there. He was a hedge knight. It doesn't take much mental effort to speculate that Duncan may have had an affair with Lord Tarh's daughter or even his wife, and had a son.

Again, I'm not saying that it is impossible to construct a story containing both elements.

I'm merely saying there is no logical connection.  One element does not imply the other.

The entire theory revolves around the idea that the shield is a clue that implies Brienne is a descendant of Dunk.  And it just isn't.  Certainly, there is no indication that Brienne thinks the shield belongs to a famous ancestor.  

[Mourning Star]

15 minutes ago, Mister Smikes said:

Again, I'm not saying that it is impossible to construct a story containing both elements.

I'm merely saying there is no logical connection.  One element does not imply the other.

The entire theory revolves around the idea that the shield is a clue that implies Brienne is a descendant of Dunk.  And it just isn't.  Certainly, there is no indication that Brienne thinks the shield belongs to a famous ancestor.  

It kind of is though... Dunk would have given up his shield when he joined the Kingsguard. Since he has desendents, leaving his sheild with his babymama/child does make some sense.

Is it proof, obviously not, but it is a logical connection.

37 minutes ago, Mister Smikes said:

Only because he is tall.  So are Bonifer Hasty and the Elder Brother.

Not only because he is tall, but because of the vision Bran sees:

Then there came a brown-haired girl slender as a spear who stood on the tips of her toes to kiss the lips of a young knight as tall as Hodor.

[Odej]

4 minutes ago, Mourning Star said:

Not only because he is tall, but because of the vision Bran sees:

Then there came a brown-haired girl slender as a spear who stood on the tips of her toes to kiss the lips of a young knight as tall as Hodor.

And we know Duncan visited Winterfell.

[Mister Smikes]

20 minutes ago, Mourning Star said:

It kind of is though... Dunk would have given up his shield when he joined the Kingsguard. Since he has desendents, leaving his sheild with his babymama/child does make some sense.

It makes sense only in the sense of not being unimaginable.   But one would not ordinarily leave a shield to a daughter, because she would not ordinarily fight herself.  And if she married, her sons would have their own coats of arms, which would not be his.  And if it was meant to be treasured forever as a family heirloom, because Dunk assumed his descendants would be big fans of the Dunk & Egg stories, well, that isn't exactly what ended up happening.

[Mister Smikes]

4 hours ago, Corvo the Crow said:

If you are expecting something explicitly written like "Serenei of Lys is not Larra Rogare, they are not the same person, have never been and won't ever be"  then of course we won't find anything like that,

I never said I expected anything of the sort.  

What I'm saying is very simple.

Ran is not GRRM.

He is entitled to his opinion.

But his opinion, by itself, is not evidence.

His opinion may well be correct for all kinds of reasons.  But it is not correct merely because it is Ran's opinion.

4 hours ago, Corvo the Crow said:

it wasn't the text that was the proof of Serenei and Larra being the same person either, it was their drawings.

I never said the drawings could not be considered as evidence.  All sorts of things can be considered as evidence.  All I am saying is "because Ran says so" adds nothing to the argument, however excellent the argument may be.

 

 

[Odej]

2 hours ago, Mister Smikes said:

The entire theory revolves around the idea that the shield is a clue that implies Brienne is a descendant of Dunk. And it just isn't.

I strongly disagree. I don't think this is a small thing, at all, I actually believe it's the closest thing to what Martin said about it when he was asked if we would ever know who Duncan's descendent is. He said, "I gave a pretty strong hint in the new book (AFFC)". The set of traits you cited about Bonifer Hasty are not only vague, it also doesn't look like "a hint". A hint is something punctual. Your theory it's more like a character study with several allegadly hints. 

And a hint doesn't have to explain everything. It can merely point the reader towards the truth that may not be totally clear with just the hint, but will be in the future.