UK Politics: Testing, testing, one two free

[Heartofice]

Most likely when the next local elections come in, results will be dreadful for the Tories, but also potentially a lot of the fallout from the pandemic might start clearing up, maybe inflation looks a bit better etc. That will probably be a time when contenders start coming out of the woodwork and making plays. Doubt anyone wants to jump in right now.

Boris can at least try and push everyone to wait for the investigation, which will probably not be especially damning of any individual, so Boris can try and step back from it all and make noises about cleaning it all up. All bullshit of course.

[The Anti-Targ]

Funny thing is, Boris resigning now (including resigning from parliament) would probably be a big fuck you to the Tories, few of whom actually like him allegedly. They'd highly probably lose that by-election and the new PM will have been handed a poison chalice, and probably not make it to the next election themself. It could almost be a scramble among the contenders not to be the next PM after Johnson, but rather to be the next PM after the next PM after Johnson.

Though I doubt Johnson wants to resign under any circumstance even as a poke in the eye to the bunch of dickheads he's be leaving to carry the can, I'm guessing he wants to live that thug life on the taxpayer tuppence for as long as he can.

[mormont]

No, Johnson will make more money out of office than he does as PM. Financially it makes sense for him to go sooner rather than later. Out of office, he can go back to booking after-dinner speeches and writing awful articles, though I suspect the TV quiz show appearances won't happen ever again. 

He won't resign now because he doesn't understand and is incapable of understanding why he should.

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

5 hours ago, Liffguard said:

He doesn't necessarily need to step down. He can be forced out.

Sure, but as mentioned, who wants to take over right now? The pandemic is extending his tenure for all the wrong reasons.

[mormont]

Someone wants to take over right now. Or else there wouldn't be what is clearly an orchestrated campaign of leaks.

[A Horse Named Stranger]

In Liz we Truss? 

[williamjm]

11 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said:

Sure, but as mentioned, who wants to take over right now? The pandemic is extending his tenure for all the wrong reasons.

There's only so many opportunities to become Prime Minister, perhaps some potential contenders might prefer to wait but others may think it's now or never.

[Werthead]

1 hour ago, The Anti-Targ said:

It could almost be a scramble among the contenders not to be the next PM after Johnson, but rather to be the next PM after the next PM after Johnson.

This was probably Johnson's own motive: he wanted to be the Prime Minister who heroically stepped in once Brexit was done and he could declare victory but also say, "Alas, Theresa May negotiated this and we have to live with it but I'll continue to fight for fairness blah blah". May bounced early and Johnson had to come in much earlier than he wanted and was immediately confronted by the pandemic crisis which he promptly bumblefucked.

Sunak would clearly be the frontrunner: he's a relative newcomer, especially to the mostly-non-politics-following public so is not tainted (in their minds) by earlier controversies and failures. He's a real conservative hoarder itching to smash down the austerity trigger again and let poor people starve, which is like superstrength viagra to the hard right of the Tory party, which is a larger percentage than it used to be. He's quite young (at 41 he'd supplant Cameron and Blair to become the youngest living Prime Minister and sixth-youngest overall), which will go down well, and he's from an ethnic minority whilst also being a relatively hardcore Conservative, which a lot of Tories really like. He doesn't have any demons or controversies ready to burst out just yet.

His main negative would be that a lot of saner Tories believe that after twelve years of hardcore austerity that did nothing but drive up the country's debt and drive down its competitiveness (whilst other countries that invested in their economies saw very rapid returns and bounced back far quicker from the financial crisis than we did), there's literally no give left in the system and any Tory government announcing a fresh run of austerity would be be bounced out of office very quickly. In particular, the new northern intake would look on any such plans with a lot of suspicion as they'd be first in the firing line.

It does look like a contest would be between him and Liz Truss: Gove seems to be a busted flush and would be optimistic to throw his hat in the ring. Hancock may have been a contender but fucked himself over, and it is far too soon for him to return to prominence. Patel seems to know how widely she is loathed and she has hitched herself very closely to Johnson's flag. Javid seems less of a contender than he did a few years ago, but might be able to rally some support.

They have really scraped the bottom of the barrel until it has given way and they're now halfway to Earth's core. I don't think there's too many other realistic contenders.

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

1 hour ago, mormont said:

Someone wants to take over right now. Or else there wouldn't be what is clearly an orchestrated campaign of leaks.

It's also possible some people just want to sink Boris without a succession plan. 

1 hour ago, williamjm said:

There's only so many opportunities to become Prime Minister, perhaps some potential contenders might prefer to wait but others may think it's now or never.

And that could also be in play. Just seems from an outside perspective that everyone wants to shit on BJ without having to take any responsibility themselves. 

[dog-days]

I don't suppose Ruth Davidson would be tempted to throw her hat into the ring from the House of Lords? Can't remember if the Tory party leader election rules would allow that at present. In UK constitutional terms, I think it would be possible. Unlikely, but she is dynamic and popular, and untainted by contact with the Johnson government. 

She'd have to renounce her title to become an MP like Tony Benn did  - I don't know if you're allowed to stand for MP on the promise of resigning it if you win. 

eta: I think that if she did want the top job, she'd have to go for it now, even if she'd prefer it later after some of the Covid dust has settled. Political memories are short, and after being in the Lords for a few years, even if she does a good job there (especially if she does a good job there, maybe), no one will remember who she was. But - apart from ripping into Boris, which everyone and their granny is doing at the moment - she hasn't shown interest in getting back into the ring. 

[mormont]

19 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said:

It's also possible some people just want to sink Boris without a succession plan.

But that invites the question 'why now?'

By far the most plausible explanation IMO is that Sunak has decided that Johnson is impeding the process of declaring COVID over and a rousing success for the government, with full reopening and huzzahs for the sterling job the Chancellor is doing encouraging the economy to bounce back.

[Werthead]

1 minute ago, mormont said:

But that invites the question 'why now?'

By far the most plausible explanation IMO is that Sunak has decided that Johnson is impeding the process of declaring COVID over and a rousing success for the government, with full reopening and huzzahs for the sterling job the Chancellor is doing encouraging the economy to bounce back.

I think it's just timing. Johnson's secret weapon was his popularity with the general public, which allowed him to remain in power after several scandals that would have toppled PMs in more civilised times. However, the public is turning against him so the Tories who always felt he was a bit wishy-washy and too crowd-pleasing have taken advantage of that to try to get him out of the way. The timing is also reasonable with regard to the next election, with probably more than two years to go it gives the new PM time enough to get into position and make an impact.

The question of who to replace him with is the big one, and it looks like Sunak's reluctance from a few months ago might be wilting, with him talking to other MPs and Patel apparently indicating she would not support him in a contest suggesting he is now at least on the board.

[A Horse Named Stranger]

I'll throw in Jeremy C. as the proverbial dark horse n that Tory leadership challenge.

I mean, if Truss is now considered a serious contender for the job, then anything goes surely.

[Werthead]

12 minutes ago, A Horse Named Stranger said:

I'll throw in Jeremy C. as the proverbial dark horse n that Tory leadership challenge.

I mean, if Truss is now considered a serious contender for the job, then anything goes surely.

I wonder if the Truss momentum was now a scare tactic to get Sunak to throw his hat into the ring, like when Peter Jackson didn't want to direct The Hobbit after Del Toro quit and the studios threatened to replace him with someone like Zack Snyder (an empty threat as ZS was busy, but still effective) to basically blackmail him into the job.

[A Horse Named Stranger]

Not sure. While that dross momentum thing was laughable and well just that for any more or less informed observer, she is apparently quite popular with the party membership (more so than Sunak).  A cynical oberserver might arrive at the conclusion, that's the exact reason why Johnson has given her that poisoned chalice of taking over from Frosty. Now she's doing the ritualistic we'll trigger article 16, if you don't do as we say chant, before not getting much of anything and declaring victory to the flag waving press at home. But you can only do it that often without looking silly. And I mean photo op with a phone receiver upside down pressed to your face silly. 

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

1 hour ago, mormont said:

But that invites the question 'why now?'

By far the most plausible explanation IMO is that Sunak has decided that Johnson is impeding the process of declaring COVID over and a rousing success for the government, with full reopening and huzzahs for the sterling job the Chancellor is doing encouraging the economy to bounce back.

Because he's weak as fuck?

I'm too inexperienced to speak to the specifics of the Tories' power struggle, so I'll obviously defer, but it seems like there's more interest in finishing Boris off than actually figuring out what to do afterwards.

[williamjm]

2 hours ago, dog-days said:

I don't suppose Ruth Davidson would be tempted to throw her hat into the ring from the House of Lords? Can't remember if the Tory party leader election rules would allow that at present. In UK constitutional terms, I think it would be possible. Unlikely, but she is dynamic and popular, and untainted by contact with the Johnson government.

We might now be in a situation where the Tory leadership contest isn't all about Brexit and a former Remain-supporter like Liz Truss is apparently a contender but I still think Davidson has been too vocally anti-Brexit to be palatable to most of the Tory party.

[Derfel Cadarn]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-60005128
“Prince” Andrew’s lawyers are claiming Virginia Gioffrenay have false memories.

An interesting claim from a guy who says he never met her despite a photograph showing his arms around her. And who seems to be the only person who remembers his trip to Pizza Express.

 

[Werthead]

1 hour ago, Tywin et al. said:

Because he's weak as fuck?

I'm too inexperienced to speak to the specifics of the Tories' power struggle, so I'll obviously defer, but it seems like there's more interest in finishing Boris off than actually figuring out what to do afterwards.

I think what happens next is a concern. Starmer is unexciting, but more trusted and seen as being more competent than Johnson (and much moreso than Corbyn). He is seen as much more of an electoral threat, especially in the old Labour seats where people "lent" the Tories votes in return for getting Brexit done and may return to their traditional loyalties afterwards. So the next election is definitely seen as being harder than the 2019 one (which probably ended up being easier than expected, thanks to Boris's greater-than-expected personal charisma) for the Conservative Party. That's why they kept BoJo, because he still seemed to have that touch with the population at large despite misgivings about him in the Tories on numerous levels. Right now, he seems to have lost that popular touch and is seen as a liability. Anyone else would be an improvement, though all the candidates have weaknesses. A couple of them even have (from a certain point of view) strengths.

[dog-days]

32 minutes ago, williamjm said:

We might now be in a situation where the Tory leadership contest isn't all about Brexit and a former Remain-supporter like Liz Truss is apparently a contender but I still think Davidson has been too vocally anti-Brexit to be palatable to most of the Tory party.

Yes, I think you're right re Brexit. That plus Davidson's lack of constituency and Westminster experience/allies would stop her from being in with a chance. 

A good thing from my POV because I could see her winning the Tories a thumping great majority with a favourable wind. 

They should definitely choose Michael Gove.